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Consolidation gathering pace in India
Written by Global Cement staff
22 November 2017
India’s Economic Times (ET) has run a story today that really illustrates the heart of the current oversupply issues surrounding the cement sector in India. It reports that Binani Cement, one of the country’s many medium-sized domestic players, is circling the drain ahead of full bankruptcy proceedings. According to ‘senior officials,’ who spoke on the condition of anonymity, the company has already attracted interest from LafargeHolcim, HeidelbergCement and CRH, as well as a plethora of domestic players. There are a total of 15 interested parties so far: the three multinationals, nine domestic cement producers and three investment firms.
With 11.3Mt/yr of capacity, Binani Cement is not a small player by international standards. Unusually for an Indian producer, it even has capacity elsewhere, in China and Dubai. It is part of the larger BRAJ Binani Group, which is involved in glass fibre, energy, IT and more. The fact that the cement company is now up for sale really underscores the extent to which India doesn’t need the 100Mt/yr of extra capacity that was highlighted by the Cement Manufacturers Association in September 2017. India could lose 10 Binani Cements overnight and still have enough capacity to meet domestic demand!
Binani’s issues are, at least in part, geographic. It has assets exclusively in the north of India, which has seen weakened homebuilding and infrastructure activities since the implementation of the government’s demonetisation policy, as well as the highest impacts from rising imported fossil fuel prices. The implementation of India’s new Goods and Services Tax (GST), which has increased cement prices, has not helped. The bulk of Binani’s operations are in Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh, both states far from the coast. When even UltraTech Cement’s profit is down, the squeeze for some smaller producers is becoming too much. On its own Binani cannot handle the heat, but its assets would certainly make a nice addition for a larger player.
In this way, the consolidating Indian cement sector represents a microcosm of the global situation. Binani’s troubles highlight how much better large companies are at spreading the risks of operating in different markets. As discussed in our forthcoming December 2017 issue, the advantages of being a multinational player with a large number of geographical markets appears to be gradually returning once again, with smaller regional players once again suffering from geographical disadvantages.
Of course, in an environment ripe for consolidation it is very interesting to note that CRH is among the international players linked to Binani. It clearly wants the benefits of being a fully-fledged multinational and is going full-steam ahead to get there. It has spent Euro1.34bn on 27 acquisitions of various sizes in 2017, most notably the on-going purchase of Ash Grove Cement in the US. It is making a strong case to purchase PPC in Africa and a larger Indian base makes sense for the company in the longer term. It lost out on Lafarge India’s assets to Nirma in 2016.
We can be sure that the pace of mergers and acquisitions will continue to grow in the rest of 2017 and into 2018 in India and elsewhere. Would you bet against CRH pulling off an Ash Grove, PPC and Binani ‘triple?’ With the group finance director Senan Murphy stating that there was additional room for expansion in 2018, its intent certainly can’t be faulted.
Update on Argentina
Written by David Perilli, Global Cement
15 November 2017
Forget the news stories about poor markets in Colombia and Brazil. Argentina is riding a construction boom right now. Local producer Loma Negra recently ran an initial public offering and it picked a good time to do it. It aimed to generate up to US$800m from the flotation and in the end it raised over US$1bn. Good news for its Brazilian owner InterCement no doubt, which was last reported as aiming to sell a 32% stake in the company in order to cover its debts. More cheer must have followed from Loma Negra’s third quarter results this week. Its cement sales volumes rose by 9% in the latest quarter to 1.72Mt due to expanding local construction activity.
Graph 1: Cement production and consumption in Argentina Q1 – 3, 2008 – 2017. Source: Asociación de Fabricantes de Cemento Portland (AFCP).
As Graph 1 shows its experience mirrors the wider industry. Cement production rose by almost the same rate for the industry as whole, by 10% year-on-year to 3.19Mt for the quarter, according to Asociación de Fabricantes de Cemento Portland (AFCP) data. For the nine months as a whole production has also risen by 9% to 8.7Mt. This figure is the third highest in the last decade since 2008. Production peaked in 2015 before dropping a major 10Mt following a subdued construction industry in the wake of devaluation of the Argentinean Peso in late 2015 and early 2016. At the time LafargeHolcim, the operator of Holcim Argentina, also blamed the negative influence of neighbouring Brazil’s own financial woes. The economy has bounced back giving the country’s its highest nine month cement consumption figure, 8.8Mt, in the last decade.
Earlier in the year LafargeHolcim said it was importing 0.25Mt of cement into Argentina between May 2017 and April 2018 because it couldn’t meet local demand from its own plants. Given the over-abundance of clinker in the world one might be forgiven for being sceptical about this claim. Bolivia’s Itacamba announced it was also exporting cement to Argentina this week. However, the other point to note from the graph is that consumption has been about 90,500t higher than production so far in 2017. This is an envious position for local producers to be in. One more striking feature that sticks out from the graph above is the undulating curve than both production and consumption has. The Argentinean economy has been through the ringer in recent years and this shows in the ups and downs of the figures.
From the perspective of the three major domestic producers, Loma Negra’s sales revenue rose by 53.9% year-on-year to US$620m in the first nine months of 2017. Its adjusted earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) rose by a whopping 73% to US$157m. Cementos Avellaneda, owned by Spain Cementos Mollins and Brazil’s Votorantim, reported similar good news with its overall results boosted by the Argentine market. Its sales revenue in the country rose by 28.3% to Euro130m and its EBITDA rose by 59.5% to Euro32.4m. Although Mollins did make the point that inflation had been particular problem in Argentina, although its impact had been ‘greatly’ outweighed by price rises. LafargeHolcim has had its problems globally so far in 2017 but Argentina hasn’t been one of them. Its operations in the country have been propping up the group’s Latin American results each quarter so far in 2017. Despite being one of its smaller regions by sales revenues, its sales and earnings delivered some of the group’s highest growth in the third quarter of 2017.
In this kind of environment new production capacity can’t be far away. Sure enough Cementos Avellaneda plans to increases the capacity of its San Luís cement grinding plant by 0.7Mt to 1Mt/yr by the second quarter of 2019. US$200m has been earmarked for the project.
So, great news for Argentina and proof that poor markets can turn around. The Brazilian cement association SNIC reckoned in October 2017 that the rate decline of cement sales was slowing, suggesting that the bottom of the downturn was in sight. On the evidence of the current situation in Argentina once the market does revive, South America will be the place to watch.
Q3 multinational cement producer roundup
Written by David Perilli, Global Cement
08 November 2017
The third quarter financial results for HeidelbergCement are out today. They aren’t perfect but the company is hanging in there following its acquisition of Italcementi in late 2016. As one would expect both cement sales volumes and sales revenue are up on a double-digit basis. After all, HeidelbergCement has absorbed a major competitor, including assets, staff, cement plants and all. Its volumes and revenue have improved, more importantly though, on a like-for-like basis, even if it is modest. With the US and Europe driving sales the cement producer has time to make its promised synergies following the Italian acquisition and hopefully wait out recovery in places like Indonesia and Egypt.
Graph 1: Cement sales volumes for selected multinational cement producers during the first nine months of 2017. Source: Company financial reports.
That growth on a like-for-like basis is crucial compared to HeidelbergCement’s big rival, the world’s biggest cement producer, LafargeHolcim. As Graph 1 shows sales volumes data for the major multinational cement producers shows quite a varied picture. LafargeHolcim’s sales volumes have fallen by 12% year-on-year to 156Mt but the company has also been reducing its production capacity. Despite this, a rough calculation of its production utilisation rate suggests that it is selling less cement proportionally, although the company’s like-for-like figures disagree, positing a rise of 1.8%. Cemex’s sales volumes declined slightly to 51.3Mt. The larger regional companies show interesting trends. UltraTech Cement has managed to increase its sales volumes by 5% to 40.4Mt overcoming a poor third quarter in 2016. What to watch here will be whether this will be enough to overcome the effects of demonetisation that rocked India’s economy in late 2016.
Graph 2: Sales revenue for selected multinational cement producers during the first nine months of 2017. Source: Company financial reports.
The stronger regional positions of those last two companies really hits home when sales revenue is examined. As can be seen in Graph 2 both UltraTech Cement and Dangote Cement are growing their sales revenue, the latter despite dropping sales volumes. UltraTech Cement is suffering from falling profits due to rising fuel costs and it may yet suffer from ‘corporate indigestion’ as it digests its acquisition of 21.2Mt/yr cement production capacity from Jaiprakash Associates that took place in June 2017. Dangote Cement seems to have increased its earnings and profits despite problems at home in Nigeria by improving its fuel mix. Yet, flirtations with South Africa’s PPC aside, its expansion plans remain in a holding position. Dangote Cement presents another fascinating situation. Its overall sales volumes have fallen but this reflects a failing market at home in Nigeria and doesn’t show the company’s booming sales in the rest of Sub-Saharan Africa.
Results from CRH and the Brazilian companies Votorantim and InterCement will further flesh out the situation when they are released. Yet, the difference between worldwide producers and regional producers seems to be clear. The likes of LafargeHolcim and Cemex with a global presence are generally battling stagnation in the cement markets overall with a couple of key markets holding them back. Meanwhile, larger regional producers in the right locations are growing. However, the absence of the Brazilian producers is critical here as their experience of the floundering market in Brazil is very different to that of, say, UltraTech Cement’s in India. Looking ahead, the next quarter will be particularly interesting to see how demonetisation skewed UltraTech Cement’s performance, to start to see the first results from HeidelbergCement a year after its purchase of Italcementi and how well LafargeHolcim’s new chief is doing.
Jenisch hits the reboot button at LafargeHolcim
Written by David Perilli, Global Cement
01 November 2017
Lots to mull over in LafargeHolcim’s third quarter results this week. Not least that the new guy is now in charge. Former Sika boss Jan Jenisch took over officially in September 2017. In his first financial statement, he said that the results did not represent the company’s ‘full potential.’ He then said that he had hit the reboot button to reset the group’s expectations to reflect the current market.
The group’s forecast for cement demand globally remains at an increase by 1 – 3% on average for 2017. This is no change from LafargeHolcim’s forecast in mid-2017. What has changed though is the anticipated growth in operating earnings in 2017 revised down to 5 – 7% year-on-year from 10% or higher. Expected measures of earnings per share and leverage have also been reduced. Underpinning this is a change to some of the volume and pricing assumptions for 2018. The group also said it was conducting a business review, including country strategies and a focus on simplification, cost discipline and performance management.
As any IT manager will tell you, when you have a problem with a computer you reboot the machine in the first instance as an easy fix. Jenisch’s version of this strategy will hopefully buy him some time to try and take charge of the company.
Previous chief executive officer (CEO) Eric Olsen was doing similar things since the formation of LafargeHolcim in 2015 to downsize the company into profitability whilst coping with too much cement production capacity worldwide. However, the on going Syria legal investigation forced the company to publicly accept some level of wrongdoing and it cost Olsen his job despite him having zero involvement or even knowledge of the affair. Meanwhile, rumours of continued boardroom clashes between major shareholders that have existed since even before the formation of the company resurfaced with the announcement in mid-October 2017 that chief financial officer (CFO) Ron Wirahadiraksa was leaving after less than two years in the role. As this column noted in May 2017 Jenisch might be exactly the right man for this particular job given his battles at Sika with that company’s controlling family’s wish to sell its stake and majority voting rights to Saint-Gobain.
Moving on, the group’s cement market outlook makes for sobering reading with growth above 2% only expected for Latin America and Asia Pacific regions in 2017. Even North America, the great white hope of cement industry growth in recent years, only has a forecast of 0 - 2%. Actual cement sales volumes in this region fell by 1.6% to 5.9Mt on a like-for-like basis so far in 2017 due to hurricanes and other bad weather events, with ‘cautious’ private and public investment giving an effect too. Incidentally, the Portland Cement Association (PCA) downgraded its assessment of US growth this week too in its latest forecast. Worse still the Middle East Africa region is expected to drop by 2 – 4% due to poor economies in various local markets, notably in Algeria and Egypt. All of this pretty much fits the like-for-like growth of cement sales of 1.8% to 156Mt in the first nine months of 2017 that LafargeHolcim has reported. The surprise though is that Latin America is growing despite on-going problems in Brazil.
This then leaves the surprise message on the same day as the third quarter results release that LafargeHolcim is in talks with the board of South Africa’s PPC. Buying a major African cement producer like PPC doesn’t quite sit with the image of a company whittling itself down into profitability. Instead, it gives the impression that LafargeHolcim wants to dominate the African market ahead of the anticipated demographic cement consumption wave. PPC for its part, after flirtations with other bidders such as Dangote Cement, may simply be trying to raise its price in a bidding war.
Boardroom battles, sluggish global cement consumption, the Syrian legal probe, potential expansion plans in Sub-Saharan Africa and efficiency drives. And these are just the issues we know about! Jan Jenisch has a lot on his plate whatever happens next. Let’s just hope that when the reboot process finishes he doesn’t find himself looking at the construction company version of the ‘blue screen of death.’
Update on Saudi Arabia
Written by David Perilli, Global Cement
25 October 2017
Arabian Cement Company had some choice words for a contractor this week when it blamed it in a bourse statement for a delay for a new mill at its Rabigh plant. The project has been pushed back to the third quarter of 2018 from the fourth quarter of 2017. The second phase of the plan, to build a new clinker production line, has also been placed under review.
The contractor may have given Arabian Cement an excuse to put a question mark over its new line, but the market reality has been stark. Also this week, Saudi Cement Company reported that its net profit had fallen by 51.5% year-on-year, to US$92.3m in the first nine months of 2017 compared to US$190.4m in the previous period. It blamed falling sales.
Graph 1: Cement sales (Mt) by quarter in Saudi Arabia, 2015 to September 2017. Source: Yamama Cement.
As Graph 1 shows, cement sales volumes in Saudi Arabia have been dropping since 2015. Sales fell by 5.3% year-on-year to 10.5Mt in the third quarter of 2017 from 10.9Mt in the same period in 2016. Year to date figures show a worse trend with a drop of 17.4% to 35.2Mt in the first nine months of 2017 compared to 42.7Mt in the same period in 2016. This decline has accelerated compared to a decrease of 5.4% from 45.1Mt in 2015 for the first three quarters.
Analyst Al Rajhi Capital provided some context to this situation in its September 2017 report on the August 2017 sales figures. It reported particularly steep declines in cement sales volumes of over 35% for Northern Cement, Najran cement and Hail Cement for the first eight months of the year. However, some producers - including City, Qassim, Yanbu and Al Safwa - did manage modest gains. Overall though the financial services company did not expect any pickup for the second half of 2017.
Last time this column covered the kingdom’s cement industry in early 2016 it asked when the government was going to relieve the export ban. Cement production was high, inventory was pilling up and infrastructure spending was falling. The ban was subsequently lifted but commentators worried that it would be too restrictive to have much effect due to tariffs and volume restrictions. A steady stream of cement producers has applied for export licences since then, but exports have not alleviated the situation. With inventory remaining high for the producers, current export policy failing to help and the local construction market subdued, it is unlikely that anything is going to change soon for the local cement industry. In fact it may even get worse if the government decides to revise its energy price policy later in 2017 or in early 2018, adding to the input cost burden of the producers.
Talk of market consolidation in this kind of market environment seems inevitable. This is exactly what happened earlier in the month when Jihad Al Rashid, the head of the Saudi National Committee for Cement Companies, said to local press that the local market only needed four large cement producers rather than the 17 companies it has at present. The question at this stage seems to be when, rather than if, will this process start.