Global Cement Weekly
Issue: gcw85 / 08 April 2013
Headlines
The Iranian authorities may have taken glee in recent months in reporting that their country is on course to become the third biggest cement producer in the world. It's the position normally taken by the US in recent years (after China and India). For a country reeling from US-led sanctions it must provide some comfort. Yet what is the cost of this industrial 'victory'?
In December 2012 Iran's production for the first eight months of the Iranian calendar year beat the previous period by 6% to 49Mt. Current projections see the country hitting 75Mt by the end of the 2012-2013 year and then 85Mt by the close of the 2013-2014 year. Claims that Iran is now becoming the world's third biggest producer fit with estimated cement production figures for 2011 from the US Geological Survey (USGS) putting Iran behind China and India. The US produced 68Mt in 2011. A rough estimate for Portland cement shipped in the US in 2012 from USGS data is 79Mt.
Two stories this week build up a complex picture of the cement industry in Iran. Iranian news agencies have been reporting frequently how well the domestic industry has done in recent months. The latest concerns how Iran's Bank of Industry & Mine has allocated around Euro400m to complete 15 cement projects since 2010. However, also this week, we can report that Iran is facing a seasonal decline of cement demand leading to large stores of clinker in some plants. One can't quite imagine the state run news agencies reporting that they have larger stores of clinker than the US.
Despite the increasingly complicated international trade sanctions in force against Iran, exports are booming. In the current Iranian calendar year they have jumped by 30% to 9Mt, going principally to Iraq, Central Asia, United Arab Emirates and Afghanistan, where it has displaced a significant proportion of Pakistani exports. As our columnist Yves De Moor commented in the November 2012 issue of Global Cement Magazine, Iranian cement is cheap due to overcapacity but hard to import due to the sanctions.
In the absence of recent consumption figures for Iran, comparing the US and Iran on a graph of cement consumption per capita against GDP per capita helps. The US remains at the upper end of the distribution curve at 250kg/capita and US$48,000/capita. Iran is flying off above the other end of the curve at 1000kg/capita and US$13,000/capita. This suggests either overcapacity or a production boom.
Further overcapacity can only push the price of exported cement down further making neighbouring markets more willing to brave the sanctions. This may support Iran's economy as President Mahmud Ahmadinezhad has stated that non-oil exports are one way his country can overcome the sanctions. Additionally, overcapacity offers some political capital on the world stage. The cost for the Iranian cement industry if and when the sanctions end may be devastating though.
Brazil: The Brazilian construction group Camargo Corrêa has announced plans to invest up to US$1.5bn in the Brazilian cement industry over a four year period. With the acquisition and control of Portuguese cement maker Cimpor in 2012, Camargo Corrêa, through its cement arm InterCement, became the second largest producer of cement in Brazil.
Of the nine countries the company began operating in through its Cimpor deal, the Brazilian market has the greatest growth potential. The market is expected to increase by 5-6%/yr, according to a report by local paper Valor Econômico. To prepare itself, the company intends to invest US$1.25-1.5bn by 2016.
Planned projects include the construction of four cement plants and an expansion at the company's existing plant in Cezarina, located in the mid-western state of Goiás.
Thailand: Siam Cement has reported that it has more than doubled its quarterly net profit as Thailand rebuilt from floods and demand for construction materials and petrochemicals surged. Southeast Asia's second biggest cement maker posted a net profit of US$232m in the October 2012 to December 2012 period, a rise of 116% compared to US$107m in the same period in 2011. Revenue from sales rose by 14% to US$3.35bn.
"An increase of 116% year-on-year was largely due to the sales recovery of the construction-related businesses from floods in the fourth quarter of 2011," the company said in a statement.
Year-on-year increases in revenue and sales were more modest when compared to the previous quarter in 2012. Revenue fell by 4% compared to the July 2012 to September 2012 period and profit increased by 8%. Revenue for the company's cement sector rose by 36% to US$576m in the fourth quarter of 2012. Profit rose by 75% to US$71.1m.
In its statement Siam Cement reported that its export market sales volume dropped by 30% quarter-on-quarter to 1Mt due to seasonal factors and tight supply as a result of plant maintenance. On year-on-year basis, export volume decreased by 22% as a result of the conversion of exports volume to serve the domestic market. Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) increased by 42% year-on-year due to the better domestic cement market but decreased by 12% quarter-on-quarter to US$117m due to plant maintenance and higher electricity costs.
Siam Cement is Southeast Asia's second largest cement maker with a cement production capacity of 24.2Mt/yr. It is 30% owned by the Thai Royal family's investment arm, the Crown Property Bureau. The company said future profit growth would be partly driven by construction across the developing Southeast Asian nations, where it aims to invest $6.7bn between 2013 and 2017.
Saudi Arabia: Southern Province Cement Company has announced the start of commissioning of its third mill at its Jazan plant, which started on 27 January 2013. It is expected that commissioning will be completed by 15 March 2013.
Spain: Mexican cement company Cemex is currently preparing a second downsizing plan for its workforce in Spain. Over the 30 days to 28 February 2012 the company is expected to negotiate with the trade unions the dismissal of up to 156 employees out of a total of 1077 employees in Spain.
The move is in line with the flagging demand as well as with Cemex's strategic plan to adapt its production capacity. At the end of 2012 Cemex cut 290 jobs in Spain in a first round of job-cuts.
Iran: In January 2013 the seasonal decline of cement demand in Iran led to large stocks of clinker in some plants. For example: ShahreCord Cement currently has around 0.45Mt of clinker, Momtazan Cement has a clinker stock of 0.37Mt, NeizarGhom Cement has 0.2Mt of clinker, Hormozgan Cement has 0.39Mt, Naein Cement has 0.36Mt and Lamerd Cement has 0.19Mt of clinker.
Iran: Iran's Bank of Industry & Mine has allocated around Euro400m to complete 15 cement projects since 2010. The bank has financed 38% of Iran's cement projects, according to the IRNA News Agency.
The Bank of Industry and Mine is an Iranian government owned specialised bank located in Tehran, Iran. It aims to increase economic growth through the development of industry and mining. It is estimated that the bank has created some 4500 direct job opportunities.
In December 2012 Deputy Iranian Industry, Mine, and Trade Minister, Vajiollah Jafari, said that by reaching a cement production capacity of 115Mt/yr Iran will become world's third largest cement producer. Iran's cement output will reach 75Mt by the end of current Iranian calendar year on 19 March 2013. Iran plans to increase its cement output up to 85Mt by the end of the next Iranian Calendar year on 19 March 2014.
Iranian cement production surpassed 49Mt in the first eight months of the current Iranian calendar year, which began on 20 March 2012, an increase of 6% compared to the same period in 2011. Iran exported over 9.38Mt of cement and clinker in the same period, an increase of 30%. This comprised 8.25Mt of cement and 1.14Mt of clinker. Iraq, Central Asia, United Arab Emirates and Afghanistan were the main targets for the exported cement and clinker. Iran's cement production capacity is currently 86Mt/yr.
Namibia: The Namibian attorney general has decided to refer a dispute about the legality of the import duty that is supposed to serve as an infant industry protection measure for cement manufacturer Ohorongo Cement to the Supreme Court. The settlement agreement was reached between lawyers representing Jack's Trading CC, a Chinese-owned cement importer, and the minister of finance and commissioner for customs and excise and was made a court order over objections from senior counsel Raymond Heathcote, representing Ohorongo Cement.
Heathcote tried in vain to persuade the court to first allow Ohorongo Cement to intervene in the latest case between Jack's Trading and the Minister of finance.
In light of the agreement Jack's Trading CC withdrew its latest urgent application in which it was asking the High Court to declare the cement import duty, as decided and announced by the minister of finance, invalid and unlawful and to set the import tax aside.
Zambia: Dangote Cement is set to open another US400m cement plant in Lusaka in 2014, bringing its total investment in Zambia to US$800m according to executive director Monica Musonda.
"The opening of the Dangote Ndola plant, which is situated in Masaiti, will make Dangote the biggest cement producer in the country producing 3000t/day," said Musonda. "The local cement production scenario will never be the same again with the coming of Dangote, which has now entered the Zambian market." She added that plans to open another 1.5Mt/yr capacity plant in the capital city after the completion of the Ndola plant in 2014 have reached an advanced stage.
China's Sinoma International Engineering has been hired to build the new Dangote plant. The chosen contractor would be announced once the construction process takes off. Musonda said, that like the Dangote Ndola plant, the Lusaka plant would be constructed using the latest, environmentally-friendly technologies that are commonly available in Europe and the United States.
Dangote's regional commercial manager Venkie Srinivasan said in an interview that his company expected a 40-45% share of the Zambian cement market after the opening of the Ndola plant in the third quarter of 2014. Srinivasan said that Dangote Industries in Zambia was set to meet the demand on the local construction and mining sector. He added that any excess cement would be able to compete favourably in the regional export market, including Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).
Elsewhere, Zambia's Southern Province permanent secretary Chileshe Mulenga announced that a consortium of Indian investors are planning to invest US$10bn in various industries in the region including the construction of a new cement plant.
South Africa: PPC (Pretoria Portland Cement), South Africa's largest cement maker, may increase production in the country by as much as 4% in 2013, according to its new chief executive Ketso Gordhan.
"South Africa is in a very tough environment at the moment," said Gordhan, who added that an oversupply of cement, partly caused by new entrants, would have an impact on the market in the first quarter of 2014. South African cement sales fell by 3.8% in the third quarter of 2012 as widespread strike action and slower economic growth sapped demand. However, PPC's sales rose by 8% in the three months to 30 September 2012.
Competitor Sephaku Holdings is expected to begin construction of a new production plant in 2013. Macquarie First South Securities analyst Peter Steyn said that PPC was, "unlikely to be unscathed" by the new arrival.
Indonesia: Indonesia's cement consumption is expected to rise by more than 10% year-on-year to 62Mt in 2013, compared to 55Mt in 2012. Tuti Rahayu, the Industry Ministry's director for downstream chemical industry, informed the Antara News agency that the increase in demand for cement was due to the country's growing infrastructure development.
According to Tuti, consumption of cement in Indonesia grew by 14.5% year-on-year in 2012 to 55Mt compared to 48Mt in 2011. Demand in the eastern parts of country grew the most rising by nearly 54%. The country has had to build at least two new cement factories each year to meet surging demand. Tue added that a mixture of state-run and private companies have started building new factories across Indonesia in Papua, Sulawesi, Sumatra and Java.
Pakistan: Lucky Cement Limited has outperformed its competition by recording a 42.2% rise in its half-year profit for the year 2012-13. It has declared a profit for the half-year ending on (31 December 2012) of US$43.9m.The company's gross profit increased by 32.3% during the half-year as its net sales revenue improved by 13.9% to US$179.3m.
During the period under review, the combined sales revenue of Lucky Cement increased by 13.9%. This was attributed to a 21.3% growth in domestic sales and a 3.7% growth in exports.
To enhance the quality of cement and for capturing new export markets, Lucky Cement plans to replace its existing cement grinding mills from Chinese suppliers located at the Karachi plant with vertical mills from European suppliers. This replacement will reduce the cost of production due to more energy efficient operations.
Egypt: Suez Cement has reported in a filing sent to the Egyptian Exchange that the cement sector in Egypt is facing a drop in natural gas supply below normal levels. However, Suez Cement indicated that deliveries at its plants were not affected due to the group's strategic inventory of clinker.
On 20 January 2013 the Ministry of Trade and Industry announced that it would increase prices of mazut, a heavy, low-quality fuel oil, for the cement and ceramics industries by 50% to US$225/t from US$150/t. This follows a threatened increase in the price of mazut in late December 2012 of 130% that the government exempted cement producers from. However, the government planned to increase the price of natural gas to US$6/mmBtu from US$4/mmBtu at the same time.
India: Prism Cement has reported a loss of US$10.1m for the quarter ending 31 December 2012, due to poor demand for the building material, high power and raw material costs. The firm, which has also has interests ready- mix-concrete and tiles as well as cement, had made a US$4.3m net profit in the October-December quarter of 2011. Prism's net sales fell as expenses rose.
"Poor demand, weak government spending on infrastructure kept prices of cement under pressure in the quarter," said Prism in a presentation to investors. "Coupled with higher power,freight and raw material costs, realisations have been adversely impacted. The markets are expected to improve and stabilise during the last quarter of the financial year."
Oman: Oman Cement Co has recorded a 36.7% rise in its net profit from US$33.2m in 2011 to US$45.5m in 2012. It reported that its total revenue rose by 17% to US$154m in 2012 from US$131.7m in 2011. However, total expenditure also rose in 2012 by 9.4% to US$102.8m from US$94m in 2011.
It is expected that Oman will see good demand for cement in 2013 due to government spending on infrastructure projects and increased construction activity. Analysts expect no increase in imports. Cement producers in the sultanate have faced tough competition over the last few years from UAE suppliers who sell cement in large quantities at lower prices in Oman.
Sameer Kattiparambil of EFG-Hermes, said, "The growth in net profit is mostly volume driven with some recovery in local cement prices. Owing to the fact that no major extra cement is being imported, prices have stabilised in the market over the last quarters."
"Since export prices have gone up, there has not been much addition to the profits of UAE exporters. Imports will continue to a limited extent but there will be no major increase. Oman Cement is working up to 96% of its capacity, so in the future, there is not much room for volume-driven growth," Kattiparambil added.
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