Displaying items by tag: CRH
Could cement fall victim to the carbon bubble?
06 June 2018CRH announced changes to its structure this week. The changes to its divisions follow the rapid growth of the company and may also anticipate the new cement assets it is about to take on-board once its acquisition of Ash Grove Cement completes in the US. Buried in one its regulatory filings covering the news were two graphs of changes in cement demand in the US and Europe through various financial depressions since the 1930s.
Graph 1: Changes in cement demand in US and Europe during financial depressions. Source: CRH with data from US Geological Survey, PCA, United Nations, Morgan Stanley etc.
The graphs serve their purpose for a public company as they show both markets in the current downturn starting to rise again. In other words it looks like the perfect time to invest in a building materials company! However, thinking more broadly the graphs give a timely reminder of how bad the last decade has been for the cement market, particularly in Europe. The period only really compares to the 1930s in decline and duration if the figures are accurate. It must be considered though that while the West has suffered, markets in the East, notably led by China and India, have boomed.
The financial crash in 2008 was precipitated by the US subprime mortgage market. Other potential market killers lie ahead no doubt. One such might be the so-called ‘Carbon Bubble.’ This idea has gained media traction this week with the publication of a paper in the Nature Climate Change journal examining the economic impact of decarbonisation, if or when it happens.
It’s not a new argument but it makes the assertion that as new technologies that replace fossil fuels start to influence the markets, traditional fuel producers like oil companies may face being stuck with ‘stranded’ assets as legislation toughens up and technology mounts. This in turn could cause a financial crash and it’s this aspect that the paper has looked at.
The ace in the hole from the Nature Climate Change paper is that the modelling here suggests a way out of the usual prisoner’s dilemma approach to climate change action. Once sufficiently-low carbon technologies hit a certain level of adoption, then any country holding out and using fossil fuels instead of taking of action may start to suffer economically. Or in other words cheating won’t pay.
The carbon bubble theory is pretty convenient for the climate change lobby as it gives it a financial reason to fight its enemies by targeting investors. One counter argument is realistically how fast and deep would the decarbonisation technologies actually have to be to cause significant financial disruption. Surely the oil producers would get out of risky assets before it was too late. Then again, maybe not.
The cement industry is in exactly the same situation as the oil producers as it too depends on carbon rich assets, in this case limestone, for its business to operate. If limestone assets become ‘stranded’ due to toughened legislation then how can production continue? In addition though, volatility in the fuels and secondary cementitious materials (SCM) markets already being observed from the cement industry may make one wonder about the existence of the carbon bubble. Markets for waste-derived fuels and granulated blast furnace slag are currently changing in the wake of the tightening of Chinese legislation both in and out of the country. In theory this could mean cheaper inputs for cement production but the market is hard to predict. The other classic recent example is how the US natural gas boom from fracking has reduced global oil prices with further effects on the coal and gas that cement producers use. This in turn has placed pressure on various countries that are reliant on their petrodollars and caused pain to their local cement industries, like Saudi Arabia for example. The price of Brent Crude may be rising at the moment but once it hits a certain threshold, the hydraulic fracking of gas wells in the US will resume pumping. Of course both waste inputs and fracking could just be attributable respectively to market distortions by a large country changing policy and a new technology finding its feet.
If the carbon bubble theory carries any weight then CRH’s cement demand graph during recessions may carry a warning to producers about what might happen if decarbonisation leaves the fossil fuel producers behind. With good timing for this theme South Korea’s Ssangyong Cement announced this week that it is close to completing a waste heat recovery (WHR) unit at its Donghae plant, one of the biggest in the world with seven production lines. The interesting detail here is that the WHR unit will work in conjunction with an energy storage system to form a microgrid. This kind of setup is well suited to using energy from renewables as well as from conventional sources like a national electricity grid. In other words, this is exactly the kind of development at a cement plant that might in a small way lessen its reliance on fossil fuels in the face of any potential supply issues.
CRH to restructure
01 June 2018Ireland: CRH plans to reorganise its business structure into three core divisions in January 2019. Its European Heavyside and Asia operations, including cement production, will form into Europe Materials. Its Europe Lightside, Europe Distribution and Americas Products operations will form into Building Products. Its Americas Materials operations will remain as it is. The new divisions are expected to generate approximately 30%, 30% and 40% respectively of earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA).
CRH is also in the final stages of buying Ash Grove Cement in the US. The US$3.5bn deal will add eight cement plants across eight US states, combined with ready mix concrete, aggregates and associated logistics assets across the US Midwest to CRH’s portfolio. It will also increase the scope of its Americas Materials division. The deal had earlier been expected to close in May 2018.
UK: Albert Manifold, the head of CRH, has been elected as the president of the Global Cement and Concrete Association (GCCA) at its first meeting. Fernando A González, chief executive of Cemex, and Jianglin Cao, chief executive of CNBM, were named as vice-presidents.
“We are proud to launch this new global cement and concrete advocacy platform. Cement and concrete are integral elements of the built environment around the world and the GCCA represents a strong sector-wide voice and responsible industrial leadership in the manufacture and use of these materials,” said GCCA President, Albert Manifold.
The GCCA comprises 10 cement companies including Cemex, CNBM, CRH, Dangote, Eurocement, HeidelbergCement, LafargeHolcim, Taiheiyo, UltraTech and Votorantim. All board appointments are on an interim basis until formal elections can take place of the full board comprising 15 members at the organisation’s first annual general meeting to be held in London, UK in November 2018. The association will also present a work programme, launch its sustainability charter and run a conference at the same time. The GCCA has established its headquarters in London.
UK: Tarmac’s Women in Cement group has held its first networking event with colleagues from across the company’s cement and lime business coming together to discuss key industry challenges and opportunities. The event was attended by team members from the businesses supply chain and logistics, customer service, health and safety and cement plant teams. It included a range of discussion topics and presentations, from personal protective equipment (PPE) and welfare facilities to profiling role models and opportunities to attract more women to pursue careers at Tarmac and in the wider construction industry.
“It has been fantastic to bring together colleagues from across the business to share their experiences and continue our work to collaborate and drive positive change. We’re looking forward to building and broadening activities across Tarmac and continuing to encourage people from all age groups, genders nationalities and ethnicities to be part of the debate and help to define opportunities for development and progress,” said Johanna O’Driscoll, Tarmac’s finance director.
The Women in Cement group is one of a number of diversity and inclusion initiatives across Tarmac. The company has partnered with organisations including the Taylor Bennett Foundation, Skillforce and the Career Transition Partnership, which all focus on supporting people from diverse backgrounds into jobs.
Eqiom to spend Euro8m on kiln upgrade
25 May 2018France: Eqiom plans to spend Euro8m on an upgrade to its kiln at its Lumbres cement plant. The subsidiary of Ireland’s CRH is installing a new clinker cooler on Kiln 5 at the site, according to the Nord Éclair newspaper. In February 2018 Fives FCB said it had won the contract to replace the kiln at the plant. The upgrade is expected to start in December 2018.
UK: Spain’s Cemengal is supplying a 0.5Mt/yr Plug & Grind Vertical mill to Tarmac’s Dunbar cement plant. Work started in April 2018 and the project is expected to be completed by July 2019. The unit follows the Plug & Grind product line’s modular format and it includes a FLSmidth OK Mill 37.3. The mill will be used to grind clinker at the cement plant although the subsidiary of CRH may also use the mill to grind slag. The order is Cemengal’s first Plug & Grind Vertical in Europe.
CRH acknowledges opposition to remuneration plan at AGM
27 April 2018Ireland: CRH says it has reduced its proposed executive salary increases following votes by a significant minority of its shareholders against a remuneration report. The board said that it would take into account the views of 39.7% of its shareholders by providing a lower salary increase to its finance director, although it had offered other benefits to the director instead. It added that the remuneration committee of the company intends to hold a consultation later in 2018.
CRH’s sales behind in first quarter of 2018
26 April 2018Ireland: CRH’s sales fell by 2% year-on-year for the first quarter of 2018. It failed to provide figures for the decline but blamed it on bad weather and poor timing of holidays. Sales fell by 2% in Europe, 3% in the Americas and by 5% in the Philippines. By region in its Europe Heavyside division CRH reported falling sales in most countries with the exception of Switzerland, the Netherlands, Denmark and Finland.
The group reported that it finalised an agreement to merge Suwannee American Cement, acquired in November 2017, with American Cement Company, a 50:50 joint venture based in Florida. CRH now owns 80% of the enlarged business following this non-cash deal. This deal is intended to strengthen Americas Materials’ position in existing markets in Central and Northern Florida, optimise market coverage and achieve operating and vertical integration synergies. It also said that its deal to buy Ash Grove Cement is progressing through regulatory approval in the US and is expected to close in May 2018.
Institutional Shareholder Services recommends investors vote against executive pay rise at CRH
06 April 2018Ireland: The Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) recommends that investors vote against a proposed Euro10m pay rise for executives at CRH. The building materials company is set to increase executive pay at its annual general meeting in late April 2018, according to the Irish Times newspaper. ISS recommends that shareholders vote against a remuneration report for several reasons including CRH's failure to set out targets for its managers and the group's proposal to give its finance director a 10% rise.
In 2017, CRH paid its chief executive officer Albert Manifold a Euro3.12m bonus, Euro2.15m salary and pension and Euro3.4m in share options. His pay was 13% less than in 2016. Finance director Senan Murphy's salary and pension was Euro0.91m and he received a Euro1m bonus. Former group transformation director Maeve Carton, who left the role in August 2017, was paid Euro2.67m.
CRH’s remuneration report says the annual bonus payments are based on a combination of financial targets and ‘personal strategic goals.’ It plans to reveal more details in 2019 once it is no longer commercially sensitive. It defended Murphy's proposed pay rise as he was paid below the market rate when he became financial director in 2016.
Roadblocks remain in the US?
14 March 2018The latest data from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) shows that cement shipments rose by 2.4% year-on-year to 95.5Mt in 2017. Readers with elephantine memories may remember that the Portland Cement Association (PCA) revised its forecast for 2017 down to 3.1% from 4.2% in a release made in late 2016. Shipments and consumption are different metrics but the PCA was heading in the right direction. Unfortunately, however ebullient the PCA’s chief economist Ed Sullivan was at the IEEE-PCA in 2017 about growth in the US in 2018 and 2019, the necessary rise required seems quite steep. President Donald Trump may have handed the major cement producers a tax break but until his infrastructure spending materializes the US construction industry is on its own.
Graph 1: Clinker production in the US, 2013 – 2017. Source: USGS.
Viewing the US as a whole is a little unfair given its wide regional variation. As can be seen in Graph 1 clinker production jumped up from 2013 to a high of 76.5Mt in 2015 before taking a dip in 2016 and then rising again to 76.9Mt in 2017. Cement shipments of Ordinary Portland and blended cement show a similar trend over the same timescale except without the decrease in 2016. Interestingly, imports of cement and clinker rose by 18% to 13.6Mt in that year. The major exporters to the US were Canada, Greece, China and Turkey, in that order.
Graph 2: Cement and clinker imported for consumption to the US in 2017 by country. Source: USGS.
From a producer perspective LafargeHolcim described 2017 as a ‘disappointing’ year, with overall net sales down slightly on a like-for-like basis. The group remained optimistic for 2018 though, with its hopes pinned on rising employment and housing construction. HeidelbergCement rode high on its acquisition of Italcementi’s local subsidiary Essroc, which enabled it to grow its business in the northeast and midwest. Its cement sales volumes rose by 2.3% to 4.1Mt. CRH noted similar cement sales volume growth of 3% and attributed this to stronger demand. Its business also benefited from the acquisition of Suwannee American Cement with its 1Mt/yr cement plant in Florida. Further growth to its production base is also expected soon as it completes its acquisition of Ash Grove Cement.
By contrast Buzzi Unicem reported a tougher year with its net sales barely increasing from 2016 to 2017. It blamed a tough first half of the year for this as well as weather-related issues due to Hurricane Harvey and then snow in December 2017. Cemex too reported harder conditions in the US, with cement sales volumes down by 6% for the year. Although on a like-for-like basis with plant sales excluded it reported this as a rise of 2%. Again, it blamed the weather but it did note an increase in residential housing construction as the year progressed.
In this kind of mixed environment for cement producers no wonder the PCA backed or, perhaps more accurately, reminded the President of his pledge to spend US$1.5tn to be invested in infrastructure. As per usual the PCA forecasts fair weather ahead for the US industry once the latest roadblock is overcome. At the last assessment it was inflationary pressure. As ever the government opening its cheque book to build things is exactly what the industry needs to build on its promise. Until then expect more of the same. One more thing to consider though is that the Trump administration is also trying to change the ratio of federal-to-state funding for cross-state infrastructure projects. If the states end up having to pay more money for these kinds of projects these may end up running out of funds, delaying or cancelling them. Counting on that infrastructure spend may be unwise until if or when the cement orders come piling in.