Displaying items by tag: Forecast
Unacem increases first-quarter sales in 2023
19 May 2023Peru: Unacem recorded consolidated sales of US$380m during the first quarter of 2023, corresponding to year-on-year growth of 2.6%. Despite this, the producer's earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) fell by 7.4% to US$105m. Unacem attributed its sales growth to 'strong' cement sales volumes in the US, as well as increased prices across its markets. The domestic Peruvian market contributed US$247m (65%) of Unacem's sales, up by 0.5% year-on-year. Peruvian cement volumes fell by 8%, while high fuel costs there contributed to a local decline in earnings.
Looking ahead to the full 2023 financial year, Unacem CEO Pedro Lerner expects the group's consolidated sales to rise year-on-year. He forecast a 10% drop in Peruvian cement volumes to 6Mt. Lerner said that the company is 'monitoring events' in neighbouring Ecuador, but considers it inevitable that on-going political disturbances will 'affect economic conditions' in the market.
Vietnam: The Vietnam National Cement Association (VNCA) expects members to record a 13% drop in their gross profit in 2023 due to a 3% rise in electricity prices. At the same time, it expects cement demand to fall due to the slowing of residential construction activity. During the first quarter of 2023, Vietnamese cement exports to China fell by 90% in value terms.
Việt Nam News has reported that electricity costs constitute 15% of operating expenses for the Vietnamese cement sector.
India: India Ratings & Research forecasts that cement demand will grow by up to 9% in the 2024 financial year that started in April 2023, due to continued government infrastructure spending. Despite mounting inflation and a large number of capital expenditure projects in progress, it expects cement company profits to recover due to slowing increases in energy costs, according to the Press Trust of India. The current prediction for the 2024 financial year follows a growth estimate of 9% in the 2023 financial year.
The credit ratings agency warned that sector expansion projects will hold back cement production capacity utilisation rate below 70% in the 2024 financial year compared to 65% in the 2023 financial year. It forecasts that three-quarters of around 150Mt/yr of new production capacity is likely to be commissioned by the end of the 2025 financial year. However, as most of this new capacity will be grinding plants, the clinker utilisation rate is likely to remain high.
It added that it expects to see more industry merger and acquisition activity in the south of the country in the short-to-medium term.
Housing demand in New Zealand falls by 20% year-on-year
11 April 2023New Zealand: Cement producer and construction firm Fletcher Building has reported a 20% year-on-year drop in domestic housing demand during the first quarter of 2023. The Australian newspaper has reported that the company attributed the decline to ‘soaring’ interest rates in the country. It now expects to sell 800 residential units in 2023, 20% below its previous expectation of 1000 units. Fletcher Building said that building materials costs rose by 5 – 10% between 2020 and 2022, due to ‘higher input and commodity costs’ in production.
CEO Ross Taylor said that Fletcher Building faces labour shortages in its civil construction business, but maintained a strong order pipeline. Taylor said “It won’t drive an uptick in volumes but it will underpin the volumes in the next three to four years.”
Indian cement sector to grow to 715 - 725Mt/yr in 2027
20 March 2023India: Credit rating agency Crisil expects the Indian cement sector's capacity to expand at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4 - 5% over the four-year period up to the end of the 2027 financial year on 31 March 2027. It would thus begin the 2028 financial year at 715 - 725Mt/yr in installed capacity, compared to 570Mt/yr at the end of the 2023 financial year. The industry's total investment in the expansion is expected to be US$14.5bn. Major multi-state producers are expected to contribute over US$7.25bn (50%) of investments towards the total sum.
Over the same period, Crisil expects all-India cement demand to rise at a CAGR of 6 - 7%.
FLSmidth increases cement business sales and earnings in 2022
27 February 2023Denmark: FLSmidth's cement business recorded 29% year-on-year sales growth to US$2.14bn in 2022, from US$1.66bn in 2021. The business' earnings before interest, taxation and amortisation (EBITA) totaled US$28.9m, compared to negative earnings of US$2.7m in 2021. During the year, its Americas region contributed 34% of sales, its Europe, North Africa and Russia region (subsequently Europe and North Africa) 26%, its Sub-Saharan Africa, Middle East and South Asia region 25% and its Asia-Pacific region 15%. Overall, FLSmidth's sales rose by 24%, while its EBITA fell by 8%, year-on-year.
The supplier said "Overall, our cement service showed strong performance throughout the year. In some countries, we did however start to see the first cases of budget constraints imposed to counter the increasing energy costs."
Looking forward to 2023's anticipated result, it noted a 'healthy' order pipeline, but an anticipated slow-down in producers' decision making. This is due to concerns related to energy volatility continuing the wake of the outbreak of war in Ukraine. FLSmidth concluded "The short-term outlook for the cement industry remains impacted by overcapacity, and the potential recession is expected to impact market demand negatively over the coming period."
Indian coal prices decline in December 2022
24 February 2023India: The price of imported coal ended December 2022 at US$145/t. The figure represented a 15% month-on-month drop from November 2022 levels. HT Media News has reported that the price is the lowest since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Finance company IDBI Capital has forecast that earnings before interest, taxation and amortisation (EBITA) per tonne of cement by local cement producers will rise by US$2.66/t quarter on quarter during the fourth quarter of the 2023 financial year, which will end on 31 March 2023. This is partly due to an anticipated 10% year-on-year decline in coal and petcoke costs during the period, alongside a 10% rise in cement volumes projected over the same period.
Buzzi Unicem increases sales and earnings in 2022
10 February 2023Italy: Buzzi Unicem recorded consolidated sales of Euro4bn in 2022, up by 16% year-on-year from 2021 levels. The producer's earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) rose by 22% year-on-year to Euro288m. The earnings figure is 33% higher than Buzzi Unicem's previous full-year 2022 EBITDA forecast of Euro216m.
Buzzi Unicem said that group cement sales fell by 9.2% to 28.3Mt, and volumes contracted in Italy, Eastern Europe and the US. The producer noted logistical issues disrupting sales in the US.
Japan: Taiheiyo Cement recorded a net loss of US$135m during the first nine months of its 2023 financial year, compared to a net profit of US$226m during the first nine months of the 2022 financial year. Nikkei Financial News has reported that the group lowered its financial forecast for the full 2023 financial year accordingly. Taiheiyo Cement now expects to record a loss of US$199m, compared to a US$221m profit in the 2022 financial year. The producer previously revised its earnings and profit forecasts downward following its first-half 2023 financial year results on 10 November 2022.
During the first nine months of the 2023 financial year, Taiheiyo Cement recorded sales of US$4.58bn, up by 14% year-on-year. The producer said that new US acquisitions during the year so far helped it to increase its cement volumes in that market.
Holcim to acquire Duro-Last
07 February 2023US: Holcim has signed an agreement with Duro-Last to acquire the roofing systems producer for US$1.29bn. Reuters has reported that the acquisition will be Holcim's largest for all of 2022 and 2023 so far. Once the parties complete the transaction, Duro-Last's business will join Holcim's products and systems division. Holcim expects the deal to yield synergies of US$60m/yr, primarily through a reduction in the cost of materials.
Holcim expects its products and systems division to contribute a majority of its profit in North America once increased investment under the US government's Inflation Reduction Act begins to take effect. In 2022, the division accounted for 40% of regional profit. The group is committed to a global target of 30% of sales being attributable to the products and systems division by 2025, compared to 19% of sales in 2022.