Anyone need a spare cement plant? If so then it looks like India is the place to head to this week.
First, Italcementi denied that it was in talks with Jaiprakash Associates to buy one of their Jaypee Cement plants. Then, after much speculation, CRH announced publicly that it had entered negotiations to purchase an equity stake in Jaypee's entire cement business. In addition the Indian government has also revived a plan to sell six Cement Corporation of India (CCI) factories that have been closed for almost 10 years.
All of this raises a question: how much are Indian cement plants actually worth?
According to one source, Italcementi was thought to be offering US$100/t (installed capacity) in the bid it supposedly made but has denied making. Jaypee 'wanted' US$150/t. However analyst commentary with the CRH announcement suggested that Jaypee's asking price was too high! This is hardly surprising. Back in June 2012 when Jaiprakash announced that it was selling its plants it was reported that Holcim was offering up to US$160/t. Alongside the CCI story an analyst was quoted as putting the cost of Indian cement production capacity at US$110/t-US$120/t. Yet these plants have been shut for a decade.
Unlike in Europe, Indian cement industry profits have been rising in double digits in recent years. However, input costs like energy and transport are rising and they are starting to hit margins listed in quarterly reports. Serious additional costs have also arisen from the anti-cartel fines issued by the Competition Commission of India. Throw in questions on infrastructure raised by last week's nationwide power-cuts and Italcementi's (non)decision to stick to US$100/t seems prescient.
Unlike Italcementi however CRH has money to spend. Back in June 2012 it was reported that the company had Euro1.5bn to invest. With Euro250m gone in the first half of 2012 on so-called 'bolt-on' acquisitions that still leaves plenty in the pot to pick up the CCI plants. Now that would be a surprise.
