Back on 11 March 2020, this column drew attention to the seemingly intractable overcapacity situation in Vietnam. On that day, incidentally the day that the World Health Organisation (WHO) declared the Covid-19 outbreak to be a full-blown pandemic, Vietnam held firm on its previous estimate that it would produce 103Mt of cement in 2020. 70Mt would be consumed domestically, with 33Mt exported. At the time much of the world was heading down the coronavirus rabbit hole and we were incredulous. South East Asia was worst affected by lockdowns at that point and demand was poor. It was clear that the country would struggle to find buyers, even with its famously reasonable prices.

Fast forward five months and figures from last week show that Vietnam’s cement producers actually exported an incredible 19.5Mt in the first seven months of 2020. The volume was 11% higher than the 17.6Mt exported in the corresponding period of 2019. However, prices suffered, with the value of exports falling by 5.4% to US$732m. That works out at US$37.54/t in 2020 against US$43.98/t in 2019 - a drop of US$6.44/t. Now, just as in March, the Ministry of Construction has maintained again that Vietnam will export 32-33Mt of cement and clinker in 2020. The volumes seem impressive, but it’s ‘sales for show, profit for dough.’ How much longer can the country continue to pour such vast amounts of cement into the global market at these low prices?

Well it seems the answer is ‘not any more.’ Following an announcement in May 2020 that no new cement plant projects would go ahead in 2020 after all, there is now a new cement industry development strategy to help move the sector forward. Under the plans, all plants with a capacity under 0.9Mt/yr will be forced to improve their productivity, product quality, energy efficiency and, crucially, environmental performance, by 2025. While the government says it will help to facilitate the changes, we can be reasonably sure that it wants to reduce its domestic capacity to a fairly meaningful extent. The Global Cement Directory shows that Vietnam has at least 28 plants of less than 0.9Mt/yr capacity, jointly contributing around 16.6Mt/yr. While we should be clear that the government is not calling for the wholesale elimination of capacity, removing these plants would leave the country with around 86Mt/yr of cement production and halve exports to around 16.4Mt/yr, assuming 70Mt/yr of domestic consumption. On the surface the government says it will help plants ‘facilitate’ the changes, but it remains to be seen whether its many older, less efficient plants will actually be able to jump through the hoops the authorities put in their way. Of course, one need look no further than neighbouring China to see how effective such directives from the top of government can be.

For its part the Vietnamese government is clear: Plants that don’t pick up the pace will be closed. It says that the strategy aims to “Develop the cement industry to an advanced and modern level, to produce cement of international standard quality with economical and efficient use of energy, giving high competitiveness in the international market, while meeting the needs of the domestic market, completely eliminating out-dated, natural resource-consuming and polluting technology.” The government stops just short of mentioning profitability, but it is clear that this would be another nice effect of reduced capacity in an economy where the state is effectively selling the cement by itself. China again shows what should happen next. Following major profitability improvements in 2017, 2018 and 2019, China’s producers continue to go from strength-to-strength in 2020, even taking coronavirus closures into account. This week Anhui Conch reported a 5.3% increase in its first half net profit (to a tidy US$2.33bn), with China Resources Cement chiming in with an 11% rise to US$541m. While it is unclear from outside of China just how much capacity has been terminated, the changes are having the desired effect.

So, after looking for perhaps slightly too long at dwindling returns, Vietnam’s government appears to be serious about overcapacity. Its (larger) cement producers look set to gain from supply-side reforms in the same way that many in China have. The industry will shrink over the next few years and, while closures and job losses will be unpopular, the country, its economy and its environment will benefit from this policy in the long run.