Update on South Korea – July 2021

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There has been a significant investment in the South Korean cement industry this week with the news that Hanil Hyundai Cement has ordered a steam-based waste heat recovery (WHR) system from Japan-based Kawasaki Heavy Industries. The 22.6MW system will be used on two of the production lines at the Yeongwol plant in Gangwon Province. The supplier says that installation is expected to generate about 30% of the energy the plant needs and save around 10,000t/yr of CO2 in the process. Delivery is scheduled for late 2022.

This order may be the first investment following the announcement in late June 2021 that the state-owned Korea Development Bank had pledged around US$870m towards supporting the cement sector in making carbon reduction upgrades by 2025. These are intended to include moving away from burning fossil fuels in cement production and increasing the use of recycling materials. At the time of the agreement between the bank and the Korea Cement Association (KCA), Hanil Hyundai Cement noted that the local alternative fuels substitution rate was 24% compared to 46% in the European Union and 68% in Germany.

Graph 1: Cement production in South Korea, 2010 – 2020. Source: Korea Cement Association.

Graph 1: Cement production in South Korea, 2010 – 2020. Source: Korea Cement Association

By European or American standards South Korea kept its coronavirus cases under control in 2020. A robust testing and contract tracing regime (K-Quarantine) managed to prevent the country enforcing stricter measures until late in 2020. A fourth wave of infections, currently underway in July 2021, due to the more contagious Delta variant, has started to change this. Despite being able to keep its economy open though, the construction sector still took a hit although not as bad as initially feared.

Cement production fell by 6% year-on-year to 47.5Mt in 2020 from 50.6Mt in 2019 following a downward trend since 2017. The KCA expected worse after a poor third quarter in 2020 when it was preparing for shipments to fall below the level last seen in the midst of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) crisis in the late 1990s. On top of this the industry was also potentially facing a new tax on production towards the end of 2020. One large local producer, Ssangyong C&E, reported a 5% year-on-year drop in sales to US$864m in 2020 from US$910m in 2019. However, it managed to increase its operating profit over the same period. So far in 2021 the sector faced supply shortages in the spring. The KSA blamed the winter plant maintenance schedule and a lack of railway wagons and trucks.

The timing of the Korea Development Bank investment in the cement sector is interesting given the movement on the European Union carbon border adjustment mechanism. Cement exports seem unlikely to be affected but business lobbyists like the Federation of Korean Industries are well aware of the effects schemes like this might have upon commodities like steel and aluminium in the first phase and then the implications for car production later on. Target markets for cement exports such as the US, Peru, Chile and the Philippines might all become vulnerable should carbon-based trade restrictions become more prevalent. Of course export markets remain vulnerable to more usual hindrances. For example, in March 2021 the Philippines extended its safeguard measures on cement imports to various countries including South Korea.

Following a round of market consolidation in the late 2010s, the South Korean cement sector now appears to be entering a phase of sustainable realignment. In late May 2021 Prime Minister Moon Jae-in announced plans to hasten the country’s carbon reduction targets ahead of the United Nations Climate Change Conference scheduled for November 2021, including a carbon tax. With cement production on a downward trend since 2017 and the coronavirus crisis far from gone it will be instructive to see how far the intervention of the Korea Development Bank will go.

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