The news from Sri Lanka this week is that Lanwa Sanstha Cement is preparing to commission a new 3Mt/yr grinding plant in January 2022. The timing is apposite given the current shortages in the country.
Some inkling of local problems can be seen in the cement news over the last few months. In August 2021 Insee Cement said that it was operating at full capacity utilisation across its network. Later, at the end of October 2021, the government intervened in the import market by opening up the use of Trincomalee Harbour. This was followed by the nation’s other main producer, Tokyo Cement, announcing that it too was operating its grinding plant at Trincomalee at full capacity. It also said that, at the government’s behest, it was going to increase its import rate.
The new Lanwa Sanstha Cement unit originally came to international attention when Germany-based Gebr. Pfeiffer revealed details in 2019 of an order of two MVR 5000 C-4 type roller mills from Onyx Group. Lanwa Sanstha Cement has since said that the plant will cost US$80m. Once operational the unit at the Mirijjawila export processing zone of the Hambantota International Port will manufacture ordinary Portland cement, Portland slag cement, Portland limestone cement and blended hydraulic cement. A further equipment order for the project was announced this week when the Chinese-run Hambantota International Port Group signed an agreement with Lanwa Sanstha Cement to build a conveyor from the port to the plant. The deal also includes two ship unloaders.
Other new cement units on the horizon include an integrated plant project from Nepalese businessman Binod Chaudhary that was announced in mid-2019. The US$150m plant was planned for Mannar in the north of the island. However, not much more has been heard since then. Chaudhary’s company CG Cement operates a grinding plant in Nepal. More recently, in October 2021, local press reported that the government had tentative plans to build a new plant at the old state-owned Kankesanthurai site, also in the north. The plant was originally built in the 1950s and production ran until 1990 when the military took over the unit amid the then on-going civil war. Earlier in 2021 the government agreed to sell off the machinery at the site. However, much of it has gone missing in the intervening period! Proposals to revive the plant have circulated since the mid-2010s.
Graph 1: Cement production and imports in Sri Lanka, 2015 – 2021. Estimate for 2021 based on January to August data. Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka.
The Sri Lankan cement market has faced a tough time over the last two years. First, total local production and imports fell by 11% year-on-year to 7.2Mt in 2020 from 8.1Mt in 2019. Then, imports fell by 18% year-on-year to 1.83Mt from January to August 2021 from 2.24Mt in the same period in 2020. Local production has more than compensated though, leading to growth in the total so far in 2021. There have been general economic reasons for why the ratio of imports to local production has fallen in 2020 and 2019 and this is explained in more detail below. Yet, imports hit a high of 5.68Mt in 2017 and have been declining since then both in real terms and proportionately.
Insee Cement summed up the local situation in its third quarter results by blaming cement shortages on input cost rises, supply chain disruption and negative exchange rates effects. The first two problems are issues everywhere around the world as economies speed up again following the coronavirus lockdowns but the last one is more specific to Sri Lanka. The country has faced a recession in its economy because the pandemic shut down tourism. The government initially introduced import limits to try and control foreign currency reserves. It then imposed price controls on essential foods and commodities, including cement, in September 2021 to try and stop shortages but this plan was abandoned a month later. Focusing on cement, some idea of the input cost inflation facing the sector can be seen in Tokyo Cement’s latest quarterly financial results. Its cost of sales rose by 72% year-on-year to US$59.5m in the six months to end of September 2021 from US$34.5m in the same period in 2020.
Lasantha Alagiyawanna, the State Minister of Consumer Protection, said at the end of October 2021 that it would take three weeks to import the required cement into the country. Whether this is enough to end the shortage remains to be seen. Yet, whatever does happen, it is likely that more production capacity from the likes of Lanwa Sanstha Cement and others will be welcome in 2022 and beyond.