Nigeria's Minister of Trade and Investment, Olusegun Aganga brought together warring parties from Dangote and Ibeto Cement this week to discuss their very public spat about the state of the country's cement industry.
Claims that Nigeria is facing a 'glut' of cement have been building since the Cement Manufacturing Association of Nigeria (CMAN) declared that Nigeria was 'self-sufficient' in cement in late 2012. So when leading cement importer Ibeto Cement questioned this narrative, leading cement producers Dangote and Lafarge hit back. Aganga then announced a review of the country's industry.
Despite Nigeria's potential to consume cement, something is stopping it. Yet, as Ibeto Cement rightly asked, if Nigeria is producing too much cement why isn't the price falling?
Hard facts about the Nigerian cement industry are elusive. This is what we know. Nigeria's population is apparently 170m. Its cement industry has the capacity to produce 28Mt/yr (Global Cement Directory 2013). Its production level was 18.5Mt/yr in 2012 according to CMAN. However figures compiled by the United States Geological Survey placed production much lower at 11.6Mt in 2011. Consumption is believed to be 17-20Mt/yr. In 2011 it was 17Mt. Ibete Cement, the sole importer into the country, is allowed to import up to 1.5Mt/yr.
Nigeria's main producers include Dangote (19Mt/yr capacity, 70% of the market), Lafarge WAPCO (4.6Mt/yr, 17%), Unicem (2.5Mt/yr, 9%) and Ashaka Cement (2Mt/yr, 7%).
Hype about Nigeria's potential as a cement-producing nation hinges upon its low per capita consumption (110kg) compared to some of its African neighbours and indicators of expected growth such as a housing deficit of 16 million homes.
CMAN boss Joseph Makoju addressed this head-on, blaming the high cost of haulage and energy. He said that the energy cost accounts for over 35% of the production cost and that the price of low pour fuel oil (LPFO) had risen by over 300% from US$0.16/l in 2009 to US$0.69/l in November 2012. It should be pointed out that Makoju is also the special adviser to the president of Dangote Group, Aliko Dangote. Unsurprisingly he has advised the Federal Government to impose higher taxes on imported cement to discourage imports.
The production boom of recent years has been threatened by a weakening increase in demand. The gap between production and lower consumption estimates is around 1.5Mt. Dangote and Lafarge WAPCO's combined unsold stock at the end of 2012 was also just below 1.5Mt. Both figures are suspiciously close to the amount Ibeto is allowed to import annually. As usual, the easiest target is the cement importer. Dangote's political clout as a key Nigerian company, large-scale employer and all round African success-story will doubtless help its argument.
Yet if imports are really more competitive than Nigeria's domestic product how can the country possibly hope to export cement? Also this week Liberia announced it has relaxed its tariffs on cement. As luck would have it Dangote is building a new cement plant in the country. Sounds ideal for tricky import negotiations.