The Ministry of Trade in Türkiye said this week that it was monitoring developments in the construction industry. Specifically, the ministry is reacting to complaints it has received about the high price of cement and supply issues. It has been looking at exports of clinker and cement. The statement noted that prices had risen particularly in the last one to two months and that the government was prepared to take unspecified action to alleviate the situation.
The comments hark back to the autumn of 2021 when members of the Construction Contractors Confederation (IMKON) stopped working for two weeks in response to high prices including cement. At the time the ministry tightened its rules on exporting cement and clinker. This followed the start of an investigation into alleged anti-competitive behaviour by the regulator Rekabat Kurumu into nine cement producers in the first half of that year. Around the same time Türk Çimento, the Turkish Cement Manufacturers' Association, had also been warning about growing raw material and energy costs. It noted that declining domestic sales between 2017 and 2019 had encouraged its members to focus on export markets more. All of this was overshadowed in February 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine and global energy prices spiked. Türk Çimento then warned of the trouble that high coal prices were causing the sector.
Graph 1: Domestic and export cement sales in Türkiye, January – September, 2017 – 2022. Source: Türk Çimento.
Graph 1 above shows that the trend towards exports that Türk Çimento pointed out in mid-2021 has continued. Domestic sales fell to a low of 33.2Mt in 2019, recovered to 2021 and dropped somewhat so far in 2022. As an aside, that decline in domestic sales from 2017 to 2019 was the first the local cement industry had experienced a fall in sales since at least 2002. Exports fell year-on-year in 2018 but have increased steadily since then to 14.6Mt in the first nine months of 2022. Exports represented 10% of total sales in 2017. So far in 2022 they have accounted for 27% of total sales. Türk Çimento’s take on the picture so far in 2022 is that it expects the domestic market to decline by 10% in 2022 in all regions of the country principally due to high commodity prices. Cement exports are expected to increase but clinker exports to decrease.
Commercially, Türkiye-based cement producers have reacted to high energy prices by upping their own product prices in turn. OYAK Çimento, for example, reported significant rises year-on-year in sales revenue and earnings in the first nine months of 2022. Net sales grew by 160% year-on-year to Euro403m and earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) increased by 202% to Euro106m. Akçansa and Çimsa reported a similar situation.
Despite the high energy costs, both investment and merger and acquisition activity has continued in the cement sector in 2022. In August 2022 Fernas Group completed its purchase of two integrated cement plants, a grinding plant and associated ready-mix concrete assets from Çimsa Çimento for US$110m. Later in the year, in November 2022, Safi Çimento acquired Sancim Bilecik Çimento’s integrated plant from Aşkale Çimento. Various upgrade projects to cement plants were also reported including projects at KÇS Kipaş Çimento’s Kahramanmaraş plant, Nuh Çimento’s Hereke cement plant, MEDCEM’s Silifke plant and OYAK Çimento’s Ünye plant.
Recent reporting by the Economist newspaper suggests that the government is targeting the domestic housing sector in response to higher than inflation price rises even compared to Türkiye’s high consumer price inflation rate. The next general election in June 2023 may also be encouraging legislators to look at the accommodation needs of their constituents. Whether this is connected to the Ministry of Trade’s recent decision is unknown. Cement producers have followed the money to lucrative export markets in recent years. How far the government is willing to intervene in this strategy could mark a change in direction for the sector.