Thank you to everyone who commented on the column in last week's Global Cement Weekly (GCW132, MINTed cement industries). Amongst the more interesting thoughts was that in a large cement producing country like the US, there are regional areas of focus. So, returning to neologisms, FACT might refer to, say, Florida, Alabama, California and Texas, four southern states with the highest cement production capacities in the union. Similar regional breakdowns could be applied to countries such as China, India or Brazil.
Following last week's look at the MINT (Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey) economies in the context of cement we now take a quick recap on what has been happening in the 'I' of the MINT, Indonesia.
Indonesia has a population of 238m, a cement production capacity of 47Mt and a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of US$1.29tr. Both its cement consumption per capita and GDP per capita are low by international standards suggesting that it has considerable growth potential for its cement industry as its wider economy grows.
Indonesia's biggest cement producer, the state owned Semen Indonesia (formerly Semen Gresik) has reported to local media that its unaudited net profit rose by 14% year-on-year in 2013 to US$410m. Its revenue rose by 12% to US$1.8bn. Its new 1.5Mt/yr cement plant in Tuban, East Java has been reported as being operational, bringing Semen Indonesia's cement production capacity up to 31.8Mt/yr in 2014.
The country's second biggest cement producer, Indocement, has not reported any figures for 2013 as a whole yet. However parent company HeidelbergCement did note that the Indonesian economy had slowed down as a result of falling commodity prices. Cement and clinker sales including exports rose by 0.6% in the first nine months of 2013. Around mid-2013 local media reported that Indocement was losing market share in Indonesia.
Holcim Indonesia has also not revealed its financial situation in 2013. However, like Indocement, Holcim Indonesia reported with its third quarter results that economic growth had 'temporarily' flattened in the country. Operating results had not improved on levels in 2012.
Overall domestic cement sales rose by 5.8% year-on-year to 47Mt for the first 10 months of 2013 according to data from the Indonesian Cement Association. Previous annual rises in cement production and cement consumption had started to slow in 2012.
Growth in the Indonesian cement industry is also having an effect on the larger geographical region. Australian cement producer Boral suspended clinker production at its Waurn Ponds plant in late 2012 due to cheaper imports from countries such as Indonesia. New Zealand followed suit in mid-2013 when Holcim announced plans to build cement import terminals instead of building a new cement plant at Weston.
In summary it seems likely that the cement market in Indonesia slowed down in the first half of 2013 but it still appears to be generating growth none-the-less, true to the MINT pattern. Market analysts from Kim Eng agree, pinning issues with domestic cement consumption in 2013 on capacity bottlenecks and over-crowded ports. Growth in the cement markets for the MINT countries may seem likely but in the case of Indonesia it cannot be assumed.