South African cement producers may be cheered this week with the news that Iranian cement is causing grief in Pakistan once more. Imported cement from Iran is allegedly undercutting local product in Pakistan through massive 'under-invoicing.' Sources quoted in Pakistan – itself a cement exporter (!) – described the situation as 'incomprehensible.'
The issue here is that Iran is doing to South Africa what Pakistan is doing to South Africa: selling cement cheaper than locally produced product. It's especially ironic this week because one Pakistani cement producer, Lucky Cement, is taking the fight against South African anti-dumping duties to the courts.
A report from July 2015 reckoned that Pakistan's cement exports might drop by 10 – 15% at the start of 2016 as economic sanctions on Iran are lifted. The report had a bit more sense than the usual scaremongering. It predicted that removing sanctions in Iran would not affect competition in Afghanistan as Iranian producers generally targeted Kandahar.
Despite this, cement exports to Afghanistan from Pakistan hit a high of 4.73Mt in the 2010 – 2011 financial year, according to All Pakistan Cement Manufacturers Association (APCMA) data. Since then they dwindled slightly for the next couple of years before decreasing more sharply from mid-2013. Overall exports fell by 11.57% to 7.2Mt in the 2014 – 2015 period. Pakistan's exports to Afghanistan may have been hit by the departure of North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) forces and a new cement plant in neighbouring Tajikistan.
In part the battle seems to be about tax. In June 2015 the APCMA lobbied the Pakistan government to cut duties. At the time these included a 5% federal excise duty and a 17% general sales tax on the retail price of cement. One APCMA spokesman reckoned that these taxes added US$1.56 per bag of cement. More recently the APCMA rallied against a tax on cement exports and an increase in import duties on coal. In this climate, repeated news stories on Iranian exports to Pakistan dodging taxes don't sound so good.
Meanwhile, back in South Africa, Lucky Cement has started to take legal action against anti-dumping duties imposed upon its cement exports by the International Trade Administration Commission of South Africa (ITAC). The ITAC imposed provisional anti-dumping duties of 14.3 – 77.2% on Portland Cement originating in or imported from Pakistan from 15 May 2015 for six months. The duty was imposed on bagged cement. Pakistan-based cement producers may defend themselves by saying that they are following the laws of the countries they are exporting to. In theory Iranian exports to Pakistan that pay the correct taxes should be the same price as Pakistani products.
What this debacle shows is that things could get a whole lot worse for coastal cement markets within easy reach of Iran once the sanctions fall. National bodies like the ITAC across the Middle East, South Asia and East Africa should start tightening up their import policies now.