LafargeHolcim has stopped clinker production at its Voskresenskcement plant in the Moscow region of Russia. The move is part of reorganisation of the company's structure in Russia following market contraction. LafargeHolcim warned of declining cement volumes in its third quarter report for 2015 blaming a 'volatile' economic situation and low oil and gas prices negatively affecting construction activity.
Lafarge, before the merger with Holcim, reported that its cement volumes in Russia grew by 9% in 2014 compared to 2013 owing to the opening of its 2Mt/yr Ferzikovo plant in the Kaluga region in May 2014. It noted at that time that the construction market had slowed down in the fourth quarter of 2014. The Voskresenskcement plant had a Euro5m FLSmidth electrostatic precipitator fitted on one of its kilns in June 2014. This was part of a Euro60m upgrade project on Lafarge Russia's cement plants between 2008 and 2013. Also, in the run-up to the merger Lafarge Holcim sold its UralCement plant in Korkino to Buzzi Unicem.
LafargeHolcim is a relatively small player in the Russian cement industry but its experiences may be symbolic. Eurocement, the Russian market leader with 33% of cement production capacity, forecast that cement consumption in the country might fall by 5 – 10% in 2015. At that time, in June 2015, Eurocement president Mikhail Skorokhod blamed the high cost of borrowing and its effects on slowing new construction projects. Previously, the Russian Cement Association predicted that it expected domestic cement consumption to fall by 15% in 2015.
Unfortunately, it looks like the most pessimistic end of Eurocement's forecast may be correct. CMPRO data shows that cement consumption fell by 9.4% year-on-year to 49Mt in the first nine months of 2015. Data is yet to be publicly released for December 2015 but the cumulative totals for the first eleven months of 2015 hold with that decrease in cement consumption. Prior to this Russian cement production and consumption had been growing annually since 2009.
Particular declines in cement consumption for the first nine months of 2015 have been reported in the Volga Federal District, the Siberian Federal District, the Ural Federal district and the Northwestern Federal District of Russia. However, it should be noted that these regions had all had a production deficit of cement for most of 2010 to 2013 according to EY analysis. These regions all had cement oversupply problems during the boom years of growth and are now suffering even more as the market contracts. The three biggest cement producing regions in Russia are the Central Federal District followed by the Volga Federal District and then the Siberian Federal District.
Alongside all of this, Eurocement planned to sign US$280m of contracts with Sinoma in November 2014 to build new clinker production lines at three plants. This followed an earlier US$580m set of deals with CNBM and Sinoma to build new plants. On 1 February 2016 Rolt Company announced that it had started project development on four power plants for Eurocement.
Eurocement's financial status is unknown but it may now be regretting all that spending. Last week, on 25 January 2016, Sherbank CIB announced that it held 6% of LafargeHolcim's shares following a repurchase deal with Eurocement. This follows a request for a US$634m loan from Sherbank in mid-2015. Unless growth resumes in the construction market it may have paid over US$850m to build new cement plants at the peak of the Russian market. Add in currency exchange effects and 2016 may be a bumpy year for Eurocement and the Russian cement market as a whole.