Displaying items by tag: China
Asia Cement expects loss in 2015
29 January 2016China: Asia Cement expects a loss for 2015 due to lower product selling prices and foreign exchange losses from US Dollar-denominated loans. The producer reported a net profit of US$120m in 2014. Its financial results for 2015 will be released by the end of March 2015.
Shanshui Cement defaults on US$270m bond
25 January 2016China: Shandong Shanshui defaulted on a US$270m three-year bond that matured on 21 January 2016. It is the second default for its owners, China Shanshui Cement, since November 2015. The move places Shanshui Cement at increased risk of bankruptcy and complicates plans by Tianrui Group to purchase the company. The previous debt default triggered multiple lawsuits from creditors that have already seen some of its assets frozen or put into impending auctioning, according to the South China Morning Post.
"The underlying cause of Shandong Shanshui's debt problems is unresolved disputes over shareholders' control, which restricted its fund-raising channels," said Shandong Shanshui in a statement. Since the estimated value of the company's assets far exceeds its debt, it expects court-ordered assets sales to bring in less proceeds than claims made by creditors, it added.
Ghanaian cement producers praise higher Freight on Board value
25 January 2016Ghana: The Ghana Cement Manufacturers Association (GCMA) has praised the Ghana Revenue Authority (GRA) for introducing a Freight on Board (FOB) value of US$60/t for cement, a rise from US$26/t previously. The GRA has been investigating allegations of under-declaration in the cost and freight value for imported bagged cement from China, according to local press.
"We commend the GRA for playing a vital role in this adjustment, and urge its sustenance in order to maximise revenue as well as protect the local cement industry," said George Dawson-Ahmoah, chairman of the GCMA. The GCMA maintains that imported bagged cement into Ghana is unnecessary give the country's surplus of locally manufactured cement. Members of the GCMA include Ghacem Limited, Diamond Cement, Savanna Diamond Cement and Western Diamond Cement.
China: China has decided to implement a tiered electricity pricing system for the cement plants to promote 'structural adjustment' in the cement industry, according to a circular released by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) according to Chinese state news.
The tiered electricity pricing system for the domestic cement industry will be based on comprehensive electricity consumption of clinker (cement) and implemented on an annual basis from 1 January to 31 December. Local governments will also be able to implement the system and raise the electricity prices for cement plants.
Has China’s cement production peaked?
20 January 2016Even the Chinese premier doesn't trust his country's GDP figures. Li Keqiang reportedly told a US ambassador this in 2007. He described Chinese GDP figures as 'man-made' and unreliable. Wikileaks then made the diplomatic report public a few years later. This anecdote has been much reported this week due to the latest gloomy economic figures from China. Its economy officially grew by 6.9% in 2015, its slowest rate in 25 years.
So what can a jittery world trust? Keqiang was reported to focus on three data samples to compensate for an unreliable GDP: electricity consumption, rail cargo volume and bank lending. Global Cement Magazine suggests that he should have followed one more: cement. What can cement tell us about the Chinese economy in recent years?
Chinese cement production fell by 4.9% to 2.35Bt/yr in 2015 according to newly published figures by the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBSC). This is significant. Firstly, whether it is a true reflection of actual production or not, it is an admission by a Chinese state body that cement production is declining. Secondly, it signals the end of the rapid growth of the country's heavy industries through the 1990s and 2000s.
Figure 1 – Chinese cement production by quarter, 2014 – 2015
Figure 1 shows Chinese cement production by quarter in 2014 and 2015 using NBSC data. Two years are insufficient to pick out any major trends other than seasonal trends throughout each year. However, remove the slow winter months in the first quarter of each year and a steady decrease in production throughout 2014 and 2015 is apparent.
Figure 2 – Chinese cement production by year, 2005 – 2015
Figure 2 offers the context that Figure 1 lacked by comparing cement production from 2005 to 2015. Notable trends to point out are a slow down in growth in 2008, around the time of the global financial crash. Then production peaked in 2014 before falling in 2015. This data comes from the United States Geological Survey and then latterly the NBSC.
Figure 3 – Chinese cement production by year and GDP/capita, 2005 – 2015
Figure 3 shows annual growth in cement production against growth in GDP. The similarity of each line here, or the rate of growth, and where they diverge is what is interesting here. Up until the late 2000s the trend is similar until GDP/capita starts to grow faster than cement production. At this point either the Chinese economy has started to acknowledge that it can build all the infrastructure and housing it needs or perhaps the slowing growth in cement production has started to point to slowing GDP/capita growth.
2015 could be a blip if growth resumes in 2016. Yet the other heavy industry metrics suggest otherwise. Electric power and steel production also fell for the first time in 2015. Coal production dropped for the second year in a row. The Chinese housing market started to slow noticeably in 2014, cement production followed by slowing down and now the country's GDP growth has also slowed. Alongside this the industry's capacity reduction programme officially started in late 2013. Cement consumption per capita for China has long suggested that Chinese growth was due to slow. It is reassuring to finally see the official production figures reflect this. The real question though is what happens next.
China National Building Materials expects a four-fold increase in net profit for 2015
19 January 2016China: China National Building Materials (CNBM) said that it expects a 310 - 360% surge in net profit for 2015 compared with its 2014 net profit of US$22.5m, according to Dow Jones. CNBM said that the rise was due to it having 'cleaned up' asset losses. The exchange rate change between the US Dollar and the Chinese Yuan also contributed to its profit rise.
China Resources Cement expects 2015 net profit to have plunged
14 January 2016China: State-owned China Resources Cement said that it expects its 2015 net profit to have fallen sharply year-on-year due to lower selling prices and exchange losses from foreign loans, following dismal data for the first nine months of 2015.
Its net profit for the nine months of 2015 fell by 60.6% year-on-year to US$165m, as its exchange loss from non-Chinese Yuan net borrowings surged fourfold year-on-year to US$83.8m. Cement and clinker also suffered from narrow gross margins of 24.1% and 11.3% for the nine months that ended on 30 September 2015 compared to 34.6% and 13.9% from 2014.
A pessimist's guide to the cement industry in 2016
06 January 2016We're going to start 2016 with a list of some of the worst things that could happen to the global cement industry this year. The idea is taken from Bloomberg Business who ran 'A Pessimist's Guide to the World in 2016' in mid-December 2015. For some of these suggestions there will be both winners and losers. Remember: forewarned is forearmed.
Continuing low oil prices hit Russia and other petro-propped economies
Cheaper fossil fuels should mean cheaper energy bills for cement producers. However, that saving must be compared to the overall cost to the global cement industry of poor construction markets in Russia and other economies that rely on oil. For example, Russian construction output fell by 4.5% to US$81bn in 2014 according to PMR. It is possible that the fuels bill saving worldwide is greater than the contraction of certain construction markets. If it is though, is this a price that the cement industry is willing to pay?
China enters a recession
The long-expected Chinese 'hard landing' seems closer than ever, as economic growth slows. It hasn't happened yet (according to official figures at least) but the 7% drop in Chinese markets on 4 January 2015 gives observers the jitters. The financial reverberations from a full Chinese financial crash would be felt around the world, derailing emerging economies due to reducing demand for exports and commodities. Naturally, construction markets would suffer. This would add to the woes currently being experienced by Brazil, Russia and South Africa. The other worry for the cement industry specifically might be the complications from a desperate Chinese industry trying to flood the outside world with even more of its products and services, including lots of cement.
Climate change impacts cement plants
Normally when it comes to climate change the cement industry worries about the effects of carbon taxation and pollution controls. However, media reporting about flooding in the UK in late December 2015 and strong El Niño effects elsewhere makes a pessimist wonder about the effects of hotter and wetter weather upon the infrastructure of the industry. The cost to repair the flooded Cemex UK South Ferriby cement plant in 2014 was rumoured to run to Euro14m and production stopped for a whole year. Costs like these are something the industry could do without.
International sanctions remain in place for Iran
Hoping that lifting economic sanctions from Iran will boost the fortunes of multinational cement producers and equipment manufacturers may be wishful thinking. Yet if the sanctions stay in place due to deteriorating relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia then nobody can discover what opportunities there might be in the world's fourth largest cement producing nation. Of course Iran's geographical neighbours across the Gulf (and in Pakistan) might be hoping that the sanctions stay in place for a very long time indeed.
Sub-Saharan Africa builds production capacity too fast
Multinationals and local cement producers alike are scrambling to build cement plants in sub-Saharan Africa. Demand for cement and low per capita consumption suggest that it is a clear investment opportunity as development kicks in. However, we have already reported on scraps between local cement associations and importers from other continents. If the cement producers build capacity faster than these countries develop, then a crash can't be too far fround the corner and everybody loses.
The UK leads an exodus from the European Union
For the cement industry a UK exit, to be voted on later in 2016, from the European Union (EU) isn't necessarily a bad things. What would be negative though is a badly handled exit process as vast swathes of trade legislation is renegotiated. What a 'Brexit' might initiate are further exits from the EU, leading to further trade disruption on a larger scale. None of this would aid Europe's economic recovery in the short term.
US Presidential elections slow the construction market
Irish bookmaker Paddy Power is currently placing odds of 9/2 for Donald Trump to be elected the next US president in late 2016. He's the second favourite candidate after Hillary Clinton despite not even having been nominated as the Republican party's presidential candidate yet. Whoever becomes the next president, the political uncertainty that occurs as the election progresses may impact upon the US construction market. It would be unfortunate to discover that the sector is weaker than expected if, say, the election rhetoric turns nasty.
Next week: reasons to be cheerful.
Happy New Year from Global Cement!
Tianrui provides loan for Shanshui bond interest repayment
05 January 2016China: Shanshui Cement's largest shareholder, Tianrui Group, has provided a US$9.3m loan to the company for interest repayment of the onshore bond of its Shandong subsidiary, Shandong Shanshui Cement Group, which defaulted in November 2015.
The loan facility is unsecured, interest free and has no fixed repayment terms, and has been remitted to the bank account designated for the bond's repayment, according to Shanshui. It didn't mention when the company could also repay the principal of the bonds, which amounted to US$307m, or whether Tianrui will provide further funding. Shanshui defaulted on the bond payment and triggered a cross default of the company's other debt after a shareholder struggle. Shanshui's board, which is now controlled by Tianrui, still faces a mounting management dispute over its Shandong subsidiary with Shanshui's founder and second-largest shareholder, the Zhang family.
Shanshui Cement takes over 100 factories from Shandong Shanshui
04 January 2016China: Shanshui Cement has announced that as of 31 December 2015, the company took over 100 factories that belonged to Shandong Shanshui, including the Shandong Cement Factory.
At the time, 'the former directors of Shandong Shanshui, namely Zhang Caikui, Zhang Bin and Huang Kehua, still illegally occupied the head office and five factories of Shandong Shanshui and illegally retained important documents, including but not limited to, seals, chops and books,' according to local media. As the company documents were illegally retained, Jinan Administration for Industry & Commerce refused to proceed with the application for the change of directors of Shandong Shanshui.