Displaying items by tag: Export

Saudi Arabia: Najran Cement has renewed its clinker export licence. It is valid for one year from 9 July 2019.

Turkey: Turkish Cement Manufacturers’ Association (TÇMB) chairman Nihat Özdemir says that the local industry needs to focus on exports rather than for local consumption. He made the comments at a meeting between the TÇMB and the Cement Industry Employers' Association (ÇEİS) hosted by Deloitte, according to the Dünya newspaper. Exports grew by 46% year-on-year in the first half of 2019 to a value of US$444m driven by deliveries to the US, Ghana and Israel. ÇEİS chairman Suat Çalbıyık called on the Turkish State Railway company to abolish its fixed tariff for goods moved up to 150km to further support the industry.
TÇMB data shows that local consumption fell by 24% year-on-year to 5.12Mt in the first quarter of 2019 from 6.74Mt in 2018. Domestic sales fell by 34% to 3.98Mt from 5.99Mt. Exports rose by 37% to 0.94Mt from 0.68Mt. Local decline in the market has been blamed on a weak housing market and a slowdown in the Turkish economy.

Kenya: Data from the Kenya Bureau of Statistics shows that cement production fell by 6% year-on-year to 1.46Mt in the first quarter of 2019 from 1.55Mt in the same period in 2018. Cement consumption dropped by 3% to 1.46Mt from 1.50Mt. Cement consumption previously grew by 2.8% year-on-year to 5.9Mt in 2018 from 5.8Mt in 2017. However, production fell by 2.6% to 6.07Mt from 6.23Mt. Imports increased by around 50% to 23,000t but exports decreased by 63% to 0.14Mt from 0.39Mt, mainly due to a major drop in deliveries to Uganda and Tanzania.

Azerbaijan: Cement demand has dropped ‘significantly’ due to a slowdown in economic growth and the lack of implementation of major projects. The country’s three cement plants are producing more than enough cement to cover local demand, according to the Trend News Agency. Concrete plants are also operating below full production capacity. Despite this downturn, growth has been noted in the housing sector. Producers are now focusing on export markets.

Tajikistan: Tajikistan exported nearly 0.62Mt of cement in the first five months of 2019, with average monthly cement of around 0.124Mt. This represents a significant increase compared to the recent past. In 2015 monthly exports typically averaged 42,000t.

Between 1 January and 31 May 2019, Tajikistan exported 0.346Mt of cement to Uzbekistan, 0.247Mt to Afghanistan and 27,000t to Kyrgyzstan, according to the Ministry of Industry and New Technologies. Over the same five-month period, Tajikistan made more than 0.1Mt more cement than in the same period of 2018.

Tajikistan now has 18 cement plants with a total production capacity of about 5Mt/yr, with Huaxin Gayur Cement, Chzhungtsai Mohir Cement and Huaxin Gayur Sughd Cement accounting for more than 85% of the overall volume made in the first five months of 2019.

The country exported

Azerbaijan: Norm Cement plans to increase its clinker production in order to expand its export markets. It intends to export 1Mt in 2019, according to the Trend News Agency. In 2018 it exported 10,000t to Georgia. In 2019 it hopes to send 0.1Mt to Kazakhstan.

Eurasian Economic Union: The Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) produced 12Mt of cement in the first quarter of 2019. Armenia produced 68,000t and imported 47,200t. Belarus produced 0.84Mt, imported 79,500t and exported 0.26Mt. Kyrgyzstan produced 0.35Mt, imported 38,600t and exported 0.15Mt. Kazakhstan produced 1.47Mt, imported 0.11Mt and exported 0.33Mt. Russia produced 9.3Mt, imported 0.18Mt and exported 0.17Mt. Usually production in the first quarter represents 16 – 19% of annual production. Consumption of cement in the EEU region is expected to grow by 2.5% year-on-year in 2019.

Tourah Cement in Egypt took the tough decision last week to temporarily stop production. It blamed this on an acute financial crisis rendering it unable to pay its running costs. The subsidiary of Germany’s HeidelbergCement was reported in the Global Cement Directory 2019 as already being partly closed. This latest news is regrettable but not surprising.

Graph 1: Cement consumption and production in Egypt. Sources: Industrial Development Agency, Global Cement Directory 2019, Cement division of the Building Materials Chamber of the Federation of Egyptian Industries.

As Graph 1 shows that the backdrop here is of a local cement sector rife with overcapacity. Capacity utilisation rates have hovered around 70% in recent years. The sector breaks down into about a quarter of production capacity under state control and the remainder owned by private companies. Overall, about half of the production capacity is run by multinational companies like Greece’s Titan, France’s Vicat and Germany’s HeidelbergCement.

The country hosts some of the largest cement plants in the world as well as several very big plants by European or North American standards anyway. The whopping 13Mt/yr government/army-run El-Arish Cement plant at Beni Suef opened fully in 2018. It seemed likely that there were going to be losers in the industry following that kind of disruption from a state-owned player. Indeed, Medhat Istvanos, head of the cement division of the Building Materials Chamber of the Federation of Egyptian Industries, explicitly blamed the El-Arish Cement plant for making the situation worse in September 2018. He said that the decision to build the plant was ‘not based on precise information’ and that it had harmed local production.

In the wider picture, the cement sector started to move away from subsidised natural gas and heavy fuel oil to coal instead in the mid-2010s. Tourah Cement mentioned this in its statement about halting production. The government has supported the cement industry through large-scale infrastructure projects and a state-sponsored compensation system under the Contractors Compensation Act that offset the loss prompted by the Egyptian pound’s floatation in 2017.

However, overcapacity has consistently been a problem and this was clear when the El-Arish Cement plant was approved. Exports of cement crept up to 1Mt/yr in 2017 from 0.1Mt/yr in 2015. Yet, as the Low-Carbon Roadmap for the Egyptian Cement Industry pointed out, Egyptian FOB exports of cement cost US$20/t higher than regional competitors such as Turkey. At this kind of disadvantage Egypt lacks the traditional escape route for an overproducing cement sector.

In these kinds of conditions, consolidation appears to be crucial while organic or government-backed demand plays catch-up with the production base. Certainly Egypt has the population and the development potential as its economy grows in the medium to long term. The government stabilising the economy after recent troubles is crucial for the construction industry. In the meantime all is not lost as the focus is on efficiency gains and cost cutting. The growth of alternative fuels as the sector’s fuel mix continues to adjust to the new normal following the abolition of subsidies on natural gas is one example of this.

Nigeria: Dangote Cement plans to open terminals at Lagos and Port Harcourt to export clinker to its grinding plants in West Africa. Chairman Aliko Dangote made the announcement at the company’s annual general meeting, according to the Punch newspaper. At present it exports 1Mt/yr, although it could export up to 8Mt/yr to generate up to US$700m in revenue. Group chief executive officer (CEO) Joseph Makoju it is a ‘major priority’ for Dangote Cement to replace non-African imports in Cameroon, increase foreign revenue and raise the capacity utilisation of its Nigerian plants.

Talk of US tariffs on imports from Mexico was not troubling the National Chamber of Cement (CANACEM) this week. Director general Yanina Navarro pointed out to local media that Mexico only exports 1.42Mt or 3.4% of its total production of 44Mt/yr to its northern neighbour. This is a little higher than the 1.04Mt reported by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) in 2018, although that figure is believed to have underestimated imports to El Paso district in Texas. Mexico was the fifth largest exporter of hydraulic cement and clinker to the US behind Canada, Turkey, China and Greece.

Commentators pointed out that Grupo Cementos de Chihuahua (GCC) might be affected more that other Mexican producers as two of its plants are close to the border at Samalayuca and Juárez in Chihuahua. However, GCC operates five plants in the US. Cemex also has a plant near the US border at Ensenada in Baja California. Yet it’s the fourth largest producer in the US by integrated production capacity. If either company had its export markets seriously disrupted by any border duties they could likely focus on production in the US to compensate.

Once again this is similar to the situation with the proposed border wall where, although President Donald Trump wanted Mexico to pay, it would have been Mexican companies benefiting the most from any construction boom. This was also the case with the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), the successor to the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). The international structure of many of the larger Mexican cement producers insulates them from these kinds of political and trade disputes.

Mexican producers shouldn’t be too complacent though. Tariffs are likely to play havoc with integrated supply chains as in the car industry. Building materials will probably be affected less so but that 1.42Mt export figure is more than the production capacity of many individual Mexican cement plants. Taking away this export market will drag on the industry’s utilisation rate and alternate destinations may be hard to find. Note the trouble Mexico has had distributing its products in Peru. The Supreme Court there upheld a fine this week on UNACEM for trying to block the distribution of Cemex’s brand of cement in 2014. Also, although Trump’s tariffs on Chinese products may not have much of an impact on building materials, USGS data shows that Chinese imports of cement to the US fell by 27% year-on-year to 0.76Mt in the six months to the end of February 2019. Similar reductions could await Mexico’s exporters.

The general consensus from the free market press is that tariffs will ultimately hurt both economies. In agreement the Portland Cement Association (PCA) published a market report in April 2018 on the effects of tariffs on US cement consumption in the wake of tariffs on steel and aluminium imports from the European Union (EU), Canada and Mexico. The summary was that all forms of tariff – from minor to a global trade war – would likely result in reduced US cement consumption to varying degrees due to slower economic growth. A full-scale set of tariffs on Mexican imports is likely to induce similar consequences.