Displaying items by tag: Export

What’s long, thin and has already exported more than 20Mt of cement in 2018? The answer is Vietnam, which reported this week that it exported 20.1Mt of cement between 1 January 2018 and 31 August 2018. That’s 106 - 112% of its annual ‘target’ in just eight months and around the same amount as it claims to have exported during the whole of 2017. Total cement production in Vietnam was 63.9Mt between January and August 2018, meaning that the country has exported 31.3% of the cement it made over this period. Vietnam itself consumed ‘just’ 43.8Mt. The government target for Vietnamese cement consumption during 2018 is around 65 - 66Mt. That’s basically the amount it has already made.

From a market-led mind-set these targets seem fairly large, huge even, especially the export target. Indeed the concept of such national targets is in itself an alien concept. In most of the world, imports and exports are results of market supply and demand trends, not drivers prescribed by the government.

The reasons behind this apparent desire to export these very large volumes of cement are, therefore, probably best understood from within Vietnam, and we won’t speculate too much on them here. However, Vietnam is clearly determined to continue to produce ever more cement than it can use. In what other country could a major government-owned producer export more than 70% of the cement it makes? In the first half of 2018 Vicem did just that, shipping 11.7Mt of cement overseas from the 14.2Mt that it made.

In 2017 Vietnam’s export target was 15Mt. It ended up smashing this to the tune of 5Mt, 33% more than the target. At the current rate the sector looks like it could overshoot even more spectacularly this year, perhaps hitting as much as 30Mt of cement exports in 2018. This is more than a big European country like Germany can produce! It certainly sounds like a lot but… is it really an exceptional number?

Looking at data from World’s Top Exports (WTEx), which we advise delving into, it seems that this would be a very high number indeed. It reports that a total of 166.6Mt of cement were exported internationally in 2017. It reports that the top exporter was not, as you may by this point have been primed to suggest, Vietnam. It wasn’t even China, as the former number one was bumped into second place (12.91Mt) by Thailand (13.03Mt). Turkey was third (12.79Mt), with Japan fourth (11.93Mt) and Vietnam was listed as fifth (9.53Mt).

All of these biggest exporters except Turkey are in the Far East, an area swamped with cheap cement. China’s average export selling price according to WTEx was US$45/t, against a global average of US$55/t. Thailand undercut it by US$3/t at US$42/t, perhaps explaining its rise to the top spot. Turkey’s average export price was also US$42/t, although it is located in a region that has a lot of saturated markets and others that are growing rapidly. Its average export distance was second only to China’s. Vietnam’s average cement export price was US$51/t, higher than the others. This does not tie in with the apparent rise in exports so far in 2018. This price may have since fallen. Surprisingly, Japan had the lowest export price of the top five exporters by volume at just US$30/t in 2017.

So, to re-answer the question posed two paragraphs above, 30Mt is a very high number indeed. But you’ll have spotted the large discrepancy between WTEx’s 9.53Mt figure for Vietnam, which relies on reciprocal import partner data, and the government’s official line of 21Mt for 2017. One is tempted to ask where the other 50% of the exports reported by the Vietnamese actually ended up, especially given that WTEx reports a US$1.5bn difference in the value of exports and imports across the year. Imports were valued at US$8.8bn but exports were valued at US$10.3bn.

The mystery destination of all that cement, real or imagined, could be the topic of an entire separate column. What appears to be the case at present, is that rampant Vietnamese cement overcapacity is here to stay. The country, as well as Japan, Turkey, Thailand et. al., could stand to benefit in the short term, as China acts ever more aggressively to end its own oversupply situation. However, there could come a time when it has to take its foot off the gas. There are no signs of that yet though.

Iran: Cement exports from Iran registered growth of 32% during the first four months of the country’s current fiscal year (20 March 2018 – 22 July 2018), according to the Islamic Republic’s Customs Administration data.

The country exported US$107m worth of cement during the period. The volume rose to 2.7Mt, 24% more than in the comparable period of the previous fiscal year. The country also exported 2.2Mt of clinker worth US$60m in the same period of time.

Iran exported cement to 27 countries across the world in the period, including Kuwait, Iraq, Afghanistan and Bangladesh, with exports to Oman and Kuwait growing strongly.

The latest data of the Iranian Ministry of Industries, Mining and Trade says that the country’s total cement output amounted to 13.36Mt during the same first quarter period, a year-on-year fall of 5.7%.

Vietnam: The Vietnamese cement sector exported 2.01Mt of cement in August 2018, a 44% year-on-year increase but 90,000t less than in July 2018. During the first eight months of 2018, cement exports reached 20.1Mt, exceeding the whole year target of 18-19Mt, according to the Ministry of Construction’s Building Material Department (BMD).

Total production stood at 63.9Mt in the first eight months, a year-on-year increase of 30%. The domestic market consumed 43.8Mt. According to the BMD, the industry is likely to reach its consumption target of 65-66Mt in the domestic market for the whole of 2018.

On top of Vietnam’s current large cement capacity, the list of cement projects that are expected to come into operation after 2018 include some very large capacity projects. These include Sông Lam Cement’s production lines 3 and 4 with a total capacity of 3.8Mt/yr, Thái Nguyên Group’s Hà Tiên Cement Project in Bình Phước with an annual capacity of 4.5Mt/yr and the Tân Thắng Cement Project in Nghệ An Province with an annual capacity of 1.8Mt/yr.

Germany: The German Cement Works Association (VDZ) says that cement consumption grew by 4.8% year-on-year to 28.8Mt in 2017. It has attributed this boost to higher investments in new construction work and acknowledged the benefits of good weather. However, the association expects much less growth in 2018.

Data from the German Federal Statistical Office indicates that domestic demand for cement was almost completely covered by German-based producers in 2017. Only 1.6Mt of cement or 5.4% had to be imported. This figure has increased slightly compared to the preceding years. The same applies to cement exports, which rose by 1.6% to a total of around 6.2Mt.

"Potential for growth is still evident in certain construction sectors. However, it is becoming increasingly difficult to exploit this as we are reaching capacity limits in the construction industry," said VDZ president Christian Knell.

Colombia: DANE, Colombia's national department for statistics, has announced that sales of grey cement stood at 0.94Mt between January and June 2018, which represented an increase of 3.6% compared to the same period of 2017. A DANE report indicated a gradual recovery of the sector after a sales drop of 10% registered in March 2018. However, the Colombian Association of Concrete Producers (Asocreto) has predicted that consumption would close the year with similar results to those posted in 2017, when sales were lower than in 2015 and 2016.

Pakistan: Cement exports by sea from Pakistan increased by 133.7% from 144,000t in July 2017 to 340,000t in July 2018. The increase in exports via sea offset a decrease in overland exports to Afghanistan and India. Pakistan’s exports to Afghanistan and India decreased by around 44.9% and 44.4% respectively in July 2018. Hence, overall exports increased by 9.3% in July 2018 to 0.53Mt from 0.48Mt in July 2017.

Ethiopia: Ethiopia has failed to meet its cement export target for the 2017 – 2018 financial year that ended on 7 July 2018. It planned to raise US$42m in revenue from cement exports, according to Cement and Related Industry Research Development Technology Director Simegn Degu, who was quoted by the Ethiopian Herald newspaper. However, its exports only rose by 47% year-on-year to US$25m from US$17m. Degu blamed the shortfall on shortages of input materials and a lack of foreign currency.

Algeria: LafargeHolcim Algeria has exported 40,000t of clinker from the port of Oran. This is the company’s first export of clinker, following exports of cement carried out earlier in the year, according to the Algeria Press Service. The subsidiary of LafargeHolcim operates two cement plants in the country and it holds stakes in two others.

Belarus/Russia: The Belarusian Architecture and Construction Ministry says that the trade turnover of the Belarusian-Russian cement market reached up to US$400m between 2014 and 2018. Following the signing of a bilateral agreement in 2014 Belarusian cement was allowed to be sold in Russia via Eurocement Group, according to the Belarusian Telegraph Agency (BelTA). Belarusian Architecture and Construction Minister Anatoly Cherny and Eurocement Group President Mikhail Skorokhod met in early August 2018 to discuss performance in the first half of 2018.

Turkey: İsmail Bulut, the head of the Turkish Cement Manufacturers Association (TÇMB), says that the local industry exported US$124m of cement in 2017. He told the Daily Sabah newspaper that the sector has a production capacity of 81Mt/yr. TÇMB data shows that it exported 7.98Mt of cement in 2017 to nearly 100 countries. The top destinations for Turkish cement included Syria, the US, Israel and Ghana. It also exported 4.93Mt of clinker led by Ghana, Colombia, Ivory Coast and Guinea. Despite the high levels of exports, the country also imported relatively small amounts of clinker for Greece and Bulgaria in 2017.