Displaying items by tag: Forecast

US: The Portland Cement Association (PCA) has predicted a rise in US cement demand in 2021 and 2022 in its Spring 2021 Cement Consumption and Construction Activity Outlook. The report stated that mortgage rates are expected to remain low throughout 2021, prompting single-family construction. Non-residential cement consumption declines are expected to continue from 2020 in to 2021 and 2022, though with decreasing impact. Predicted oil price rises will increase oil well cement consumption.

The association welcomed a proposed US$2.2Tn eight-year federal government infrastructure spending programme. Chief economist and senior vice president Ed Sullivan warned of the proposal’s inherent political weakness in its inclusion of US$1.2Tn-worth of low or no-cement projects. He said that the opposition would latch on to this as grounds to oppose the necessary tax rises for the funding.

Sullivan said, “This recovery is predicated on continued progress in fighting Covid-19. The rapid pace of vaccinations and increased mask usage have resulted in a decline in death rates from over 3,000 daily in January 2021 to less than 825 daily in April 2021.” said Sullivan. “The Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME)’s current forecast suggests a sustained and significant decline in daily Covid-19 deaths to less than 170. Progress associated with Covid-19 is the critical factor in the near-term outlook.” He added, “After committing to spending US$5.2Tn in Covid-19 relief and adding another US$2.0Tn in operations, the federal US debt could rise by US$7.0Tn in 2020 - 2021. This puts the discussion of the Biden US$2.2Tn infrastructure proposal into context. The proposal must pay for itself, which means higher taxes. While investing in traditional infrastructure such as roads and bridges has bi-partisan appeal, tax increases and some programmes dubiously labelled as infrastructure have caused concern. This concern threatens the potential passage of the initiative.”

US: The Portland Cement Association (PCA) has published a March 2021 Economic Update. The update calls attention to the danger that insufficient aid to state and local governments presents to construction. The American Rescue Plan Act 2021 affords US$350bn to these bodies, which consume roughly half of the cement produced in the US.

Senior regional economist Brian Schmidt said that state and local government coffers are running low due to reduced tax revenues because of the Covid-19 outbreak, especially in areas reliant on oil and tourism. Schmidt concluded that the total US$1.9tn stimulus package is likely sufficiently replenish state funds to maintain cement demand. He added that this will depend on significantly reduced Covid-19 case counts by the third quarter of 2021 in line with the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation’s baseline forecast.

US: The Market Intelligence Group at the Portland Cement Association (PCA) has made an additional update to its Winter 2020 – 2021 economic forecast. Senior vice president and chief economist Ed Sullivan revised the association’s assessments regarding the path of Covid-19, vaccine supply, government Covid-19 relief and inflationary pressures.

The association said that it expects domestic cement consumption to grow by nearly 1% in 2021, fuelled largely by residential construction. It estimated ‘weak’ non-residential construction performance, with soft economic activity affecting government funds at federal state level. It added that the new federal government Covid-19 relief targeting state government would likely limit public cement’s drag on 2021 cement consumption growth.

Saudi Arabia: NCB Capital has predicted a growth in Saudi cement sales of 4% year-on-year to 52.8Mt in 2021. The investment and analyst division of National Commercial Bank described the sector’s outlook as ‘positive,’ due to on-going housing programmes and the Public Investment Fund’s 2021 – 2025 strategy, as well as a pick-up in infrastructure projects.

US: The Portland Cement Association (PCA) has updated its winter 2020 – 2021 economic forecast. Senior vice president and chief economist Ed Sullivan said that in light of possible delays of three months or more to the national Covid-19 vaccine rollout, predicted robust economic recovery will be ‘slower than expected’ compared to expectations stated in the original forecast in December 2020. The PCA’s Market Intelligence Group expects cement consumption to grow by nearly 1% year-on-year in 2021, fueled largely by residential construction.

Thailand: Siam Cement Group (SCG) has forecast total earnings growth of 5 - 10% from US$13.3bn in 2020. The Bangkok Post newspaper has reported that the group believes that its businesses are likely to be driven by product development and the circular economy, with an emphasis on diversification outside of cement.

President and chief executive officer Roongrote Rangsiyopash said, "We have a positive outlook for our businesses because we have strong strategies. The company is focused on high value-added products and global trends to support our businesses during the outbreak."

Spain: Oficemen, the Spanish cement association, reports that domestic cement consumption fell by 10% year-on-year to 13.3Mt in 2020 from 14.7Mt in 2019. Consumption at this level was last reported in 1967. The 12-month accumulated consumption figure began to fall in April 2020 due to Covid-19 restrictions and the association does not expect growth in 2021 despite an improvement in December 2020. Cement and clinker exports fell by 3.4% to 5.99Mt from 6.20Mt. It has forecast anything between a 3% rise and a 3% fall in consumption in 2021, due to coronavirus-related uncertainty.

The figures suggest that capacity utilisation in the cement industry is at roughly 60% nationally, according to the El Economista newspaper. Oficemen president Víctor García Brosa said that this level ‘cannot be indefinitely maintained.’ The association called for a recovery plan committed to infrastructure development, residential construction and rehabilitation and energy efficient transport.

China: Huaxin Cement has forecast a 9 -14% year-on-year fall in full-year net profit in 2020, of up to US$140m. It said that it recorded a net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring gains and losses of around US$980m in 2019.

The company said, “The main reason for 2020 performance decline is the hit of Covid-19 in the first half of this year and vast flood disaster along Yangtze River in July 2020. The sales volume of main products were hugely affected and the price fell to some extent, leading to the reduction in the operating revenue.”

India: Credit ratings agency ICRA expects cement demand to rise by 20% year-on-year in the 2022 Indian financial year, which starts in April 2021, allowing the local market to return to volumes previously seen before the coronavirus pandemic. In its latest report the credit ratings agency predicts that growth will be supported by rural demand, including affordable housing, and recovery in infrastructure segment, according to the Press Trust of India. Cement production capacity is forecast to increase by up to 22Mt compared to 17Mt in the previous year. Most of this additional capacity is expected to be in the eastern region. Capacity utilisation rates should recover to 64% from 56%.

Vietnam: Vietnamese cement export growth is forecast to slow in 2021. The Viet Nam News newspaper has reported on research by SSI Research that expected exports to remain stable due to high infrastructure spending in China, but that growth is unlikely due to the full recovery of Chinese domestic cement supply in 2020. SSI Research forecasts a total 2021 cement and clinker sales growth of 2% year-on-year to 104Mt from 102Mt. It predicts a 5% - 7% increase in domestic sales. The country’s installed cement production capacity is due to rise by 7% or 7Mt in early 2021.