Displaying items by tag: Forecast

India: Cement manufacturers in India have seen a significant turn in fortunes since the start of 2020 due to the ongoing coronavirus outbreak. Producers, which had been raising prices and selling high volumes at the start of the year, are seeing a slump in demand in the wake of a nation-wide lockdown that began in mid-March 2020. Motilal Oswal Financial Services estimates that cement sales in March 2020 will be 40% lower than those seen in March 2019. Even after the lockdown ends, there will be severe knock-on effects for the remainder of India’s 2021 Fiscal Year (FY2021), which ends on 31 March 2021. This is expected to be due to weak economic growth, government cuts in spending on infrastructure and lower real estate demand.

Indeed, ratings agency CRISIL expects cement demand in India to contract by at least 10 - 15% in FY2021 compared to FY2020, with a ‘worst-case scenario’ of up to a 25% reduction.

The only respite that cement manufacturers may see is on the logistics side. With lower production volumes, transporters are offering more concessions on freight rates that will further help with costs, according to analysts. Low oil prices will benefit producers, while Petcoke prices may also remain relatively low.

India: Several cement producers have responded to the coronavirus pandemic with plant closures. Reuters has reported that India Cements has temporarily closed all of its plants. JK Lakshmi Cement has suspended cement production at its 4.2Mt/yr integrated plant in Jaykaypuram, Rajasthan and at three grinding plants. JK Lakshmi subsidiary Udaipur Cement Works has shut its 1.6Mt/yr integrated Udaipur plant, also in Rajasthan.

Dalmia Bharat refractory production subsidiary Dalmia-OCL’s CEO Sameer Dagpaal told the Business Standard newspaper that he expected the virus’ impact on the company to be ‘relatively limited,’ with a slowdown in demand from the cement sector lasting at most ‘a couple of months.’ He noted that there had been ‘some minor supply-side disruptions relating to a shortage of raw materials from China.’

On 24 March 2020 the all-India total number of coronavirus cases crossed 500, with nine dead, according to Al Jazeera. 200 cases are in the western states of Maharashtra and Kerala.

Vietnam: Cement producers in Vietnam are reported to be facing a ‘double whammy’ due to falling domestic demand from a slowdown in the domestic property and infrastructure sectors, as well as a marked decline in exports due to the ongoing Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic.

However, Nguyen Quang Cung, chairman of the Vietnam Cement Association (VNCA) said that demand is expected to remain high throughout 2020 as a whole. The Ministry of Construction (MoC) currently stands by its autumn 2019 forecast that Vietnam will produce 103Mt of cement during 2020. It expects domestic consumption to be around 70Mt, with exports of 33Mt.

To help firms overcome the current difficulties, Cung proposed that the government, the State Bank of Vietnam and other parties offer support to manufacturers in the form of tax cuts and lower interest rates.

Global Cement is sceptical that Vietnam’s cement producers will meet the MoC’s 2020 forecast. In January and February 2020 the country’s domestic sales were 40% lower year-on-year compared to 2019, while exports fell by 49% year-on-year.

Vietnam: Producers exported approximately 2.82Mt of cement in January and February 2020, down by 49% year-on-year from 5.75Mt in the corresponding period of 2019. Vietnam News has reported that this is a result of the coronavirus outbreak. In February 2020 Vietnam’s Ministry of Construction said that Vietnamese cement exporters would face fierce competition as China and Thailand increase exports over the coming year.

Vietnam Cement Association president Nguyễn Quang Cung previously predicted that Vietnamese cement exports would hold steady at 34.0Mt in 2020 before falling by 26% to 25.0Mt in 2021 as a forecasted rise in domestic demand reduces the reliance on low-priced exports. China remains the primary importer of Vietnamese cement, which it buys at US$36.3/t. Domestic demand fell by 37% year-on-year to 2.88Mt in January 2020 from 5.43Mt in January 2019, according to Arab News.

Production rose by 0.1% year-on-year to 13.0Mt in January and February 2020 from 12.9Mt one year previously.

The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) took on direct implications for the international cement industry this week when an Italian vendor infected with the virus visited Lafarge Africa in Ogun state, Nigeria. The cement producer said that it had ‘immediately’ started contact tracing and started isolation, quarantine and disinfection protocols. This included initiating medical protocols at its Ewekoro integrated plant, although local press reported the unit’s production lines were still open. Around 100 people were thought to have had contact with the man.

Global Cement has been covering the epidemic since early February 2020 when the virus’ effect on the construction industry in China started to become evident. First, an industry event CementTech was postponed, financial analysts started forecasting negative financial consequences for producers and plants started going into coronavirus-related maintenance or suspension cycles. Then at least one plant started to dispose of clinical waste and now China National Building Material Group (CNBM) is considering how to restart operations at scale. Also, this week Hong Kong construction companies reportedly laid off 50,00 builders due to a lack of cement due to the on-going production suspension in China.

The major cement companies have identified that their first business risk from coronavirus comes from simply not having the staff to make building materials. LafargeHolcim’s chief executive officer Jan Jenisch summed up the group’s action in its annual financial results for 2020 this week when he said, “We are taking all necessary measures to protect the health of our employees and their families.” Other major cement producers that Global Cement has contacted have placed travel restrictions for staff and reduced access to production facilities.

The next risk for cement companies comes from a drop in economic activity. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) forecasts a global 0.5% year-on-year fall in real gross domestic product (GDP) growth to 2.4%, with China and India suffering the worst declines in GDP growth at around 1%. The global figure is the worst since the -0.1% rate reported by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in 2009. The OECD blamed the disease control measures in China, as well as the direct disruption to global supply chains, weaker final demand for imported goods and services and regional declines in international tourism and business travel. This forecast is contingent on the epidemic peaking in China in the first quarter of 2020 and new cases of the virus in other countries being sporadic and contained. So far the latter does not seem to have happened and the OECD’s ‘domino’ scenario predicts a GDP reduction of 1.5%. All of this is likely to drag on construction activity and demand for cement and concrete for some time to come.

Moving to cement markets and production, demand is likely to be slowed as countries implement various levels of isolation and quarantine leading to reduced residential demand for buildings directly and as workforces are restricted. Business and infrastructure projects may follow as economies slow and governments refocus spending respectively.

The UK government, for example, is basing its coronavirus action plan on an outbreak lasting four to six months. This could potentially happen in many countries throughout 2020. This has the potential to create a rolling effect of disruption as different nations are hit. Assuming China has passed the peak of its local epidemic then its producers are likely to report reduced income in the first quarter of 2020. The effect may even be reduced somewhat due to the existing winter peak shifting measures, whereby production is shut down to reduce pollution. Elsewhere, cement companies in the northern hemisphere may see their busy summer months affected if the virus spreads. The effect on balance sheets may be visible with indebted companies and/or those with more exposure to affected areas disproportionately affected. The wildcard here is whether coronavirus transmits as easily in warmer weather as it does in the cooler winter months. In this case there may be a difference, generally speaking, between the global north and south. Exceptions to watch could be cooler southern places such as New Zealand, Argentina and Chile. Shortages, as mentioned above in Taiwan, potentially should be short term, owing to global overcapacity of cement production, as end users find supplies from elsewhere.

The cement industry is also likely to encounter disruption to its supply chains. Major construction projects in South Asia are already reporting delays as Chinese workers have failed to return following quarantine restrictions after the Chinese New Year celebrations. As other countries suffer uncontrolled outbreaks then similar travel restrictions may follow. Global Cement has yet to see any examples of materials in the cement industry supply chain being affected. On the production side, raw mineral supply tends to be local but fuels, like coal, often travel further. Fuel markets may prove erratic as larger consumers cut back and suppliers like the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) react by restricting production.

On the maintenance side cement plants need a wide array of parts such as refractories, motors, lubricants, gears, wear parts for mills, ball bearings and so forth. Some of these may have more complicated supply chain routes than they used to have 30 years ago. On the supplier side any new or upgrade plant project is vulnerable if necessary parts are delayed by a production halt, logistics delayed and/or staff are prevented from visiting work sites. Chinese suppliers’ reliance on using their own workers, for example, might well be a hindrance here until (or if) international quarantine rules are normalised. Other suppliers’ weak points in their supply chains may become exposed in turn. This would benefit suppliers with sufficiently robust chains.

Chinese reductions in NO₂ emissions in relation to the coronavirus industrial shutdown have been noted in the press. A wider global effect could well be seen too. This could potentially pose problems to CO₂ emissions trading schemes around the world as CO₂ prices fall and carbon credits abound. This might also have deleterious effects on carbon capture and storage (CCS) development if it becomes redundant due to low CO₂ pricing. In the longer-term this might undesirable, as by the time the CO₂ prices pick up again we will be that much nearer to the 2050 sustainability deadlines.

COVID-19 is a new pandemic in all but name with major secondary outbreaks in South Korea, Iran and Italy growing fast and cases being reported in many other countries. The bad news though is that individual countries and international bodies have to decide how to balance the economic damage disease control will cause, versus the effects of letting the disease run unchecked. Yet as more information emerges on how to tackle coronavirus, the good news is that most people will experience flu-like symptoms and nothing more. Chinese action shows that it can be controlled through public health measures while a vaccine is being developed.

Until then, frequent handwashing is a ‘given’ and many people and organisations are running risk calculations on aspects of what they do. It may seem flippant but even basic human interaction such as the handshake needs to be reconsidered for the time being.

India: Production capacity utilisation in the cement industry is expected to remain below 70% in the 2020 – 2021 financial year due to new plant projects in the next two years. Credit ratings agencies ICRA, India Ratings and Crisil all forecast relatively low demand for cement compared to a decade-high of 13% in the 2019 – 2020 period, according to the Press Trust of India. Cement production rose by 0.7% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2019 – 2020 period. However, production growth has hastened since then. The ratings agencies offer different outlooks on anticipated profits look forward.

Russia: Russian producers sold 2.4Mt of cement in January 2020, up by 9.6% from 2.2Mt in January 2019. This is in line with Unioncement’s optimistic forecast of 6% year-on-year demand growth. The coming construction season promises sustained growth due to the planned renovation of housing stock, the implementation of integrated development projects and an increased share of roads built using cement concrete, in line with the country’s 2020 Housing and Urban Environment programme and President Putin’s social initiatives.

US: On 4 February 2020, PCA Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Ed Sullivan predicted that US cement demand would rise by 1.7% in 2020 and may rise by as much as 2.7% if residential construction exceeds expectations. Sullivan stated that demand would maintain moderate growth through at least to 2022. “As long as the economy continues to grow and create jobs, the economy will remain on solid ground and continue to support cyclical portions of the cement market,” he said.

Vietnam: Maintaining exports will be critical for the Vietnamese cement industry amid rising production output and anticipated sluggish domestic sales in 2020, according to Nguyễn Quang Cung, President of the Vietnam Cement Association (VCA).

Cung also reported that two new cement plants will go into operation during 2020: a 2.5Mt/yr plant in Tân Thắng Commune in the central province of Nghệ, and a 4.6Mt/yr plant in Bỉm Sơn Commune, Thanh Hóa. These new facilities will give the domestic cement industry a total production capacity of more than 100Mt/yr, with local demand estimated to be closer to 70Mt/yr. “Maintaining exports will be critical for the cement industry this year,” said Cung, but domestic projects are likely to remain ‘sluggish’ due to stagnant infrastructure projects.

Over the medium term, Cung said that cement exports would fall to 25Mt in 2021 form 34Mt in 2020, based on an expectation that domestic sales will increase.

Brazil: Brazil has reported a growth in annual sales volumes for the first time since 2014. Producers sold 54.5Mt of cement – up by 3.5% from 52.8Mt in 2018 and exceeding SNIC president Paulo Camillo Penna’s January 2019 forecast of 3.0% growth. Penna has predicted a 3.6% increase to 56.5Mt in 2020. Valor newspaper has reported that Penna bases his assumption on favourable interest rates and low inflation of the Brazilian real as well as the government’s implementation of anticipated industrial policies favourable to production.