Displaying items by tag: Forecast

Poland: The Polish cement industry is expected to meet a sales forecast of 15.8Mt made by the Polish Association of Cement Producers (SPC). Jan Deja confirmed the prediction based on data for November and December 2016 from the Central Statistical Office (GUS) and the weather at this time in comments made to the Polish News Bulletin. He added that 2016 had seen a 'significant' drop in investments and that a boom in residential construction had compensated for a decline in infrastructure development. However, tenders for infrastructure projects have been launched suggesting that sales might reach up to 16.5Mt in 2017.

This week the US Portland Cement Association (PCA) revised down its forecast for the rise in cement consumption in 2016 to 2.7% from 4%. It also lowered its prediction for 2017, blaming political uncertainty around the presidential election, inflation and slower construction activity. Global Cement Magazine editorial director Robert McCaffrey pointed out on LinkedIn that he was surprised by the revision down in 2017 given the rhetoric by president-elect Donald Trump to invest in large infrastructure projects.

Clearly the PCA is playing it cautious as a politically unknown entity, Trump, slides from campaign trail promises to executive power delivery. Backing them up are the latest figures from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) that show that both cement production and shipments fell slightly in the third quarter of 2016. In the quarter before the election in November 2016 the cement market slowed down. The hard bit is working out why. As we pointed out in a review of the US cement industry in the May 2016 issue of Global Cement Magazine the PCA had previously downgraded its forecast in 2016 due to economic uncertainty despite strong fundamentals for the construction industry. Then, as now, the great hope for the US cement industry was infrastructure spending down the pipeline, at that time the Fixing America’s Surface Transportation Act. At this point it doesn’t seem to have had much of an effect.

Industrial and economic forecasters aren’t the only ones who have a hard time of it in 2016. Political pollsters have also been caught out. Surprises came from the UK’s decision to leave the European Union and the election of Trump. Neither result was widely expected in the media. As explained above, should Trump make good on his building plans then if any cement company based its plans on a forecast dependent on a Hilary Clinton win then it may have lost money.

The power of forecasts has even greater potential effects in developing markets where the corresponding financial risks and rewards are higher. After all, why would any cement company invest tens of millions of US dollars for a cement grinding plant or hundreds of millions for an integrated plant unless there was some whiff of a return on investment?

This then leads to the problems Dangote has reportedly been having with its plant in Tanzania. Amidst a flurry of local media speculation in late November 2016 about why its Mtwara plant had a temporary production shutdown, Dangote’s country chief clarified that it was due to technical problems. It then emerged this week that Dangote’s owner Aliko Dangote met with President John Magufuli to agree a gas supply agreement to the plant. The point here being that even if the market conditions and demographics seems conducive to profit, as is the case in Tanzania, if the local government changes any incentives agreed at the planning stage then everything can change. At this point forecasts based on data become moot.

There’s a great quote from the US pollster Nate Silver that goes, “The key to making a good forecast is not in limiting yourself to quantitative information.” In terms of election campaigns run at a time of upheaval that might mean listening to people more than looking at polling data. In terms of a cement company operating in Africa that might mean fostering links with the local government to ensure no sudden policy changes catch you off-guard. And in the US that might just mean cement company analysts have to follow Donald Trump’s Twitter account.

US: The Portland Cement Association (PCA) has lowered its forecast for cement consumption in 2016 to 2.7% from a previous estimate of 4%. It has also revised downwards its forecast for 2017 to 3.1% from 4.2%, attributing the declines to post-election political uncertainty, inflation and slower construction activity.

“President-elect Trump continues to shape his cabinet and policies, thus making it difficult to forecast potential outcomes at this point,” said PCA Chief Economist Ed Sullivan. “The impact of uncertainty is expected to be compounded by increased inflationary expectations which will impact long-term bonds and loans, such as mortgages – to the detriment of cement consumption.”

In the meantime the PCA has presented three potential political scenarios in its forecast that could shape policy priorities. These scenarios take into account various levels of political support from the US Congress, as well as possible shifts in the President-elect’s previously announced policy objectives that impact cement consumption.

Japan: Taiheiyo Cement has revised down its forecast for its net sales by 2.3% for its financial year that ends on 31 March 2017. It now expects to make net sales of US$7.67bn from US$7.85bn as originally estimated in May 2016 due to falling cement sales volumes.

India: JK Cement’s Chief Financial Officer AK Saraogi has forecast that cement demand will rise by 8% in the 2017 – 2018 financial year due to government spending on infrastructure. JK Cement Special Executive Madhavkrishna Singhania said that demand in the current financial year is likely to be aided by ‘good’ monsoons that will boost spending particular in rural areas, according to the Press Trust of India. The forecasts follow several years of poor demand for cement in the country. Ratings agency ICRA also predicts similar increases in demand.

Vietnam: Vietnam’s cement sales are predicted to reach 95Mt by 2020 says Nguyen Quang Cung, chairman of the Vietnam Cement Association (VNCA). The total will include 80Mt/yr of domestic sales and 15Mt/yr of clinker and cement exports, according to the Vietnam News Agency.

Vietnam’s domestic cement sales are predicted to rise by 5 - 5.5Mt/yr to hit 80Mt by 2020. The country’s cement and clinker exports will stay at 15Mt/yr, Cung added, noting that Vietnam will be able to satisfy the demand. He also predicted that the country’s cement sales will reach 77Mt in 2016, including of 60Mt of domestic sales and 15.5 – 17Mt of exports.

The Ministry of Construction previously forecast that Vietnam’s sales of cement and clinker would rise 4 - 7% year-on-year to 75 – 77Mt in 2016 despite on-going economic problems.

US: The Portland Cement Association (PCA) has confirmed its projection released earlier in 2016 that the US cement industry is on target to see annual cement consumption grow by 4%. Cement consumption through to the end of the year is expected to continue at a steady pace, with additional demand coming from several areas, including moderate residential spending and, to a lesser extent, growth in non-residential and public construction activity. Additionally, the PCA says that favourable monetary policy from the Federal Reserve will support construction activity for the next two years.

“A key factor for continued growth for the cement industry is steady growth in construction spending, also projected to be up 4%,” said PCA Chief Economist and Senior Vice President Edward J Sullivan. “This is very much in line with the overall US economy’s slow-albeit-positive growth path.”

Sullivan noted that PCA has forecasted growth despite some conflicting economic indicators from elsewhere in the economy. “Despite some ups and downs in the US economy, the underlying economic fundamentals are solid.” For example, PCA noted the labour market has consistently seen a net monthly increase of roughly 200,000 jobs, pushing the unemployment rate below 5%. PCA also projects real GDP will grow by 1.5% in 2016, and by 2.2% in 2017.

Russia: Filaret Galchev, the owner of Eurocement, expects that demand for cement in Russia will fall by 8% - 10% in 2016 after falling 12% in 2015. The cement producer will sell about 20Mt of cement in Russia and about 3.5Mt in other regions including Uzbekistan and Ukraine in 2016. He added that average production costs at the group will produce cement at around US$25/t.

In an interview with Rossiya 24 television reported upon by Interfax, Galchev also described Eurocement’s sale of its 6.1% stake in LafargeHolcim in February 2016 as ‘unexpected’. The Russian cement producer sold its share in LafargeHolcim after they lost nearly half of their value in six months.

"No, I did not expect it. We analysed the situation for a long time, but that is the decision that was made," said Galchev. He added that he had no issues with Sberbank, the Russian bank that restructured Eurocement’s debt after the sale of the shares in LafargeHolcim.

Originally Eurocement was a shareholder in Holcim and it received a stake in LafargeHolcim after that company was formed in a merger. The stake was subsequently transferred to Sberbank of Russia in January 2016 after the shares, which Galchev had acquired with financing from Bank of America, lost over 40% of their value in half a year. At the beginning of February 2016, Sberbank sold the 6.12% LafargeHolcim stake to investors from the UK, Switzerland, the US and other countries.

Pakistan: The Pakistan cement industry plans to invest up to US$1bn towards production capacity growth of 10Mt/yr by 2018. The growth will be targeted at the growing real estate market and expected China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) projects said Mohammad Ali Tabba, chairman of the All Pakistan Cement Manufacturers Association (APCMA) in comments to the Business Recorder.

"Four companies have already announced their plans in this regard. Cherat Cement is going to do it from next year, and then Attock Cement, DG Khan Cement and Lucky Cement will materialise their plans," said Tabba.

He added that at present the country has a production capacity of 46Mt/yr, a demand of 38Mt/yr and a capacity utilisation rate of 80 – 85%. His argument for cement industry growth rests on the industry hitting this capacity utilisation rate. The last time a significant increase in industry capacity was made was in 2005 -2006 when it was increased from 17.9Mt/yr to 42.3Mt/yr in 2008 – 2009.

US: Cement consumption in the US will rise by 3.4% in 2016, according to a report from the Portland Cement Association (PCA). The forecast has been revised down from the PCA’s previous forecast of 5%. The PCA expects cement consumption in 2017 to grow by 4.3%.

“The new forecast reflects the implementation of the new multi-year highway bill, Fixing America’s Surface Transportation (FAST) Act,” said Edward Sullivan, PCA chief economist and group vice-president. “However, our forecast still reflects a deterioration in global growth conditions, an even weaker projection for oil prices, and a tightening of US monetary policy.”