Displaying items by tag: Portland Cement Association

Ed Sullivan, the Portland Cement Association’s (PCA) chief economist was in tub-thumbing mood last week at the IEEE-IAS/PCA Cement Conference in Calgary, Canada. The headline figures that the PCA put out in a press release was a forecast of a 3.5% rise in cement consumption in 2018 and 2019. Yet behind this in a stirring speech given to a cement industry crowd craving growth was a tale of riches ahead. The audience lapped it up. There was only one problem: nothing has really happened yet to make any if this happen. It always seems to be riches ahead. As Sullivan freely put it, “Trump policies will impact cement… But we don’t know what they are!”

Sullivan broke down his forecast into three sections that hinged around President Trump’s desired policy changes kicking in from about the third quarter of 2019. At this point, owing to lack of information about what the Trump administration actually wants to do, Sullivan freely broke open the assumptions. These covered issues such as a tax reform, infrastructure budgeting, immigration reforms and more. As he explained it all of these issues interact, so that reducing taxes potentially pushes national debt up making infrastructure spending harder. Owing to the lack of specifics from the current administration though Sullivan was forced to resort to the more solid plans of Democratic presidential contenders Hillary Clinton and even Bernie Saunders for nuggets of information of how ‘a government’ might act. For example, he used a breakdown of Saunders’s intended infrastructure spend to try and predict how Trump’s policies could play out. Increases in highway building from the overall infrastructure spend in this context being good news for the cement industry. And as for Sullivan’s view on the impact of the Trump border wall: ‘overrated’.

The new forecasts for 2018 and 2019 appear to be retrenchment given that the PCA was predicting growth of 4% for 2016 in the middle of that year. It subsequently reduced its estimate to 2.7% for 2016 by December 2016 after the presidential election. However its figures for 2017 and 2018 have increased since the December forecast. Sullivan predicted that growth will start to surpass 5% in 2020 once Trump’s policies have time to make waves. The crescendo of his presentation at the IEEE-IAS/PCA was a prognostication of an extra requirement of 14Mt of cement in 2021 and 2022. Sullivan topped this off by saying that, “We have the supply infrastructure in place right now.” However, some delegates informally questioned afterwards where that cement might actually come from with mass international clinker capacity waiting in the wings from places like Vietnam and new cement plants such as the McInnis Cement plant in Quebec expressively targeted at the US import market about to come on line.

Sullivan has a tricky job trying to predict what will happen next in the US cement industry and sometimes his forecasts seems to change as much as the weather that cement company financial reports often blame their poor returns on. This column knows a little bit how he feels. As Sullivan’s biography points out he’s been cited by the Chicago Federal Reserve as the most accurate forecaster regarding economic growth among 30 top economists. In short he’s the best we’ve got. But Donald Trump’s approach to government so far has made his job exponentially harder. As we’ve said more than a few times when describing the US cement market, the basis are there for growth but something is holding back faster growth. Will Trump be the catalyst to break the 5% growth barrier? Looks like we’ll have to wait until late 2019 to find out.

Elsewhere, the conference brought together a large cross-section of the North American industry. Surprisingly perhaps given the change in leadership at the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) several parts of the speaker and discussion programme focused on coping with National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants (NESHAP), carbon tax schemes in Canada and California and practical carbon capture methods at the plant level. The key here seemed to be a piecemeal approach that may not necessarily be at odds with less government environmental legislation. Next year’s outing in Nashville, Tennessee looks set to be an even more important event, especially if more on Trump's infrastructure plans become known.

2017 has started more uncertainly for the US cement industry than 2016 did according to the latest data from the United States Geological Survey (USGS). Cement shipment data from just two months, January and February 2017, can only present a limited impression of the state of the industry. Yet the key trend to look for in Graph 1 is the growth in Midwestern US states against a decline in the Western ones. Previously in 2016 this region’s shipments sunk below those in the West in December and didn’t overtake them until the spring. This time round they’ve stuck closely and overtaken them already in February 2017.

Graph 1: Portland and blended cement shipments by US Census Bureau region for 2016 to February 2017. Source: USGS.

The Midwest’s cement shipments jumped by 21% year-on-year to 2.2Mt for those first two months. Buzzi Unicem concurred with this picture in the Midwest with its first quarter financial results this week, reporting a boost in deliveries in the region. HeidelbergCement agreed, reporting sales volumes increases in the north of the country and a decrease in the West. In that region the USGS data shows an 8% fall in shipments to 2.2Mt. HeidelbergCement blamed heavy rain and flooding in California and Oregon as the cause of the problems. Another potential reason that the USGS hints at are increasing imports of cement that it says have been rising faster than sales. For example, imports of cement to the US as a whole grew by 23.9% year-on-year to 0.81Mt in February 2017.

Overall though the situation for the larger cement producers has been subdued. Many of them blamed good weather in the first quarter of 2016 giving them a hard quarter to measure against in 2017. For example, LafargeHolcim’s sales volumes of cement fell by 4.5% in North America although it did report sales growth off the back of cement pricing and cost controls. HeidelbergCement may have looked good on paper following its integration of the Italcementi/Essroc assets but its cement volumes only grew by 1% in the period. Cemex too reported a similar scenario with falling sales volumes of 5% but growing sales revenue.

To put this in perspective, as the Portland Cement Association’s (PCA) chief economist Ed Sullivan says in the May 2017 issue of Global Cement Magazine, cement production in the US grew in 2016 and it is expected to continue growing in 2017 and 2018. Just like the start of 2016 (see GCW251) the potential for US construction growth in the year ahead is a quietly confident one but it isn’t assured.

Cemex points out that housing starts rose by 8% in the first quarter of 2017, as did construction spending in the industrial and commercial sector. However, it says that infrastructure spending fell by 9% in February 2017. Indeed this last point is an important one given that one of the major Trump campaign pledges in the 2016 presidential campaign was to build more infrastructure. As commentators in Washington DC including the PCA have asked: where is the Bill? Rightly, the PCA are not letting the lawmakers forget this during ‘Infrastructure week’ as the issue is discussed. The US cement industry needs this.

For further information on the US cement industry take a look at the May 2017 issue of Global Cement Magazine

US: The Portland Cement Association (PCA) has announced the winners of its Chairman’s Safety Performance, Safety Innovation and Energy and Environment Awards. The awards recognise outstanding safety performance in the manufacturing of Portland cement, creative safety-enhancing projects in the cement industry and outstanding environmental and community relations respectively.

“The facilities recognised today are to be congratulated for their safety achievements,” said Allen Hamblen, PCA chairman and president and chief executive officer of CalPortland, in relation to the Safety Performance Awards.

Winners of the 2017 PCA Chairman’s Safety Performance Awards:

Category: Less than 226,000 hours
Buzzi Unicem USA – Chattanooga, Tennessee
LafargeHolcim US – Morgan, Utah
Lehigh Hanson, Inc. – Tehachapi, California

Category: 226,001 - 289,000 hours
Ash Grove Cement – Foreman, Arkansas
GCC Permian – Odessa, Texas
Lehigh Hanson, Inc. – Leeds, Alabama

Category: 289,001 - 563,000 hours
Cemex USA – Brooksville, Florida
Cemex USA – New Braunfels, Texas
Martin Marietta Materials – New Braunfels, Texas

Winners of the 2017 Safety Innovation Awards:

Milling/Grinding
Ash Grove Cement, Montana City, Montana

Pyroprocessing
Cemex USA, Balcones, Texas

Distribution
CalPortland Cement Terminal, Portland, Oregon
LafargeHolcim US, Corporate Program, Chicago

Winners of the 2017 Energy and Environment Awards:

Energy Efficiency
Cemex USA Construction Materials, Pacific, LLC, Victorville, California

Environmental Performance
Cemex USA Construction Materials, Pacific, LLC, Victorville, California

Land Stewardship
Continental Cement Company/Green America Recycling, Hannibal, Missouri

Outreach Winner
Mitsubishi Cement Corporation, Lucerne Valley, California

US: The Portland Cement Association (PCA) has supported President Donald Trump’s executive order (EO) on energy independence. The EO instructs federal agencies to review and either revise or withdraw a number of actions taken by the Obama administration, including the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Clean Power Plan. The EO also immediately rescinds other federal policies, such as the social cost of carbon figures developed by the Interagency Working Group on Social Cost of Greenhouse Gases.

“The PCA applauds President Trump for revisiting regulations that have a significant impact on the nation’s cement manufacturers, such as those in the EO issued today,” said PCA Executive Vice President Todd Johnston. He added that the EPA’s Clean Power Plan had ‘exceeded’ the agency’s statutory authority and that the social cost of carbon figures were developed without necessary transparency and public input.

Despite supporting measures that rollback environmental policy in the US the EPA said that it and its members were committed to manufacturing products with a ‘minimal’ environmental footprint.

US: The Portland Cement Association (PCA) has welcomed the confirmation of Scott Pruitt as the administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) by the US Senate.

“We congratulate Pruitt on his confirmation and look forward to working with him in the years ahead,” said PCA president and chief executive officer (CEO) James G Toscas. “His experience and background are strong indicators that we will see a common-sense approach to regulations that protect public health and the environment. We have always believed that the best regulatory solutions derive from adherence to the intent of the enabling legislation, together with an honest consideration of the perspectives and concerns of all involved, including public stakeholders, the regulating agency and the regulated industry. We believe and expect that Pruitt will restore balance to the regulatory process."

This week the US Portland Cement Association (PCA) revised down its forecast for the rise in cement consumption in 2016 to 2.7% from 4%. It also lowered its prediction for 2017, blaming political uncertainty around the presidential election, inflation and slower construction activity. Global Cement Magazine editorial director Robert McCaffrey pointed out on LinkedIn that he was surprised by the revision down in 2017 given the rhetoric by president-elect Donald Trump to invest in large infrastructure projects.

Clearly the PCA is playing it cautious as a politically unknown entity, Trump, slides from campaign trail promises to executive power delivery. Backing them up are the latest figures from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) that show that both cement production and shipments fell slightly in the third quarter of 2016. In the quarter before the election in November 2016 the cement market slowed down. The hard bit is working out why. As we pointed out in a review of the US cement industry in the May 2016 issue of Global Cement Magazine the PCA had previously downgraded its forecast in 2016 due to economic uncertainty despite strong fundamentals for the construction industry. Then, as now, the great hope for the US cement industry was infrastructure spending down the pipeline, at that time the Fixing America’s Surface Transportation Act. At this point it doesn’t seem to have had much of an effect.

Industrial and economic forecasters aren’t the only ones who have a hard time of it in 2016. Political pollsters have also been caught out. Surprises came from the UK’s decision to leave the European Union and the election of Trump. Neither result was widely expected in the media. As explained above, should Trump make good on his building plans then if any cement company based its plans on a forecast dependent on a Hilary Clinton win then it may have lost money.

The power of forecasts has even greater potential effects in developing markets where the corresponding financial risks and rewards are higher. After all, why would any cement company invest tens of millions of US dollars for a cement grinding plant or hundreds of millions for an integrated plant unless there was some whiff of a return on investment?

This then leads to the problems Dangote has reportedly been having with its plant in Tanzania. Amidst a flurry of local media speculation in late November 2016 about why its Mtwara plant had a temporary production shutdown, Dangote’s country chief clarified that it was due to technical problems. It then emerged this week that Dangote’s owner Aliko Dangote met with President John Magufuli to agree a gas supply agreement to the plant. The point here being that even if the market conditions and demographics seems conducive to profit, as is the case in Tanzania, if the local government changes any incentives agreed at the planning stage then everything can change. At this point forecasts based on data become moot.

There’s a great quote from the US pollster Nate Silver that goes, “The key to making a good forecast is not in limiting yourself to quantitative information.” In terms of election campaigns run at a time of upheaval that might mean listening to people more than looking at polling data. In terms of a cement company operating in Africa that might mean fostering links with the local government to ensure no sudden policy changes catch you off-guard. And in the US that might just mean cement company analysts have to follow Donald Trump’s Twitter account.

US: The Portland Cement Association (PCA) has lowered its forecast for cement consumption in 2016 to 2.7% from a previous estimate of 4%. It has also revised downwards its forecast for 2017 to 3.1% from 4.2%, attributing the declines to post-election political uncertainty, inflation and slower construction activity.

“President-elect Trump continues to shape his cabinet and policies, thus making it difficult to forecast potential outcomes at this point,” said PCA Chief Economist Ed Sullivan. “The impact of uncertainty is expected to be compounded by increased inflationary expectations which will impact long-term bonds and loans, such as mortgages – to the detriment of cement consumption.”

In the meantime the PCA has presented three potential political scenarios in its forecast that could shape policy priorities. These scenarios take into account various levels of political support from the US Congress, as well as possible shifts in the President-elect’s previously announced policy objectives that impact cement consumption.

US: The Portland Cement Association (PCA) has elected Allen Hamblen, president and chief executive officer of CalPortland Company, as chairman of the PCA board of directors, and Tom Beck, president of Continental Cement Company, was elected vice chairman. Hamblen takes over PCA board chairmanship from John Stull, chief executive officer of US Cement for LafargeHolcim US.

Prior to 2006, Hamblen was president and chief executive officer of Glacier Northwest and has worked with CalPortland and its predecessor for 31 years. He is a former chairman of the National Ready Mixed Concrete Association, a trustee of the Ready Mixed Concrete Research and Education Foundation and is a former president of the Washington Aggregates and Concrete Association.

Beck has served as senior vice president at Continental Cement from 2005 to 2013, and as vice president of sales and marketing from 1996 to 2005. He is also a former chairman of the American Concrete Paving Association.

US: The Portland Cement Association (PCA) and the US Department of Labor’s Mine Safety and Health Administration (MSHA) has renewed for three years an on-going alliance aimed at fostering safer and more healthierl working conditions in the cement industry. Started in 2008, the agreement has enabled the PCA and the MSHA to share information, guidance and training resources to help protect the health and safety of all cement industry employees.

“Over the past seven years, this alliance has facilitated a productive collaboration between the cement industry and the regulatory agency, which has resulted in measurable safety and health benefits to cement industry employees,” said PCA President and CEO James G Toscas.

US: The Portland Cement Association (PCA) has confirmed its projection released earlier in 2016 that the US cement industry is on target to see annual cement consumption grow by 4%. Cement consumption through to the end of the year is expected to continue at a steady pace, with additional demand coming from several areas, including moderate residential spending and, to a lesser extent, growth in non-residential and public construction activity. Additionally, the PCA says that favourable monetary policy from the Federal Reserve will support construction activity for the next two years.

“A key factor for continued growth for the cement industry is steady growth in construction spending, also projected to be up 4%,” said PCA Chief Economist and Senior Vice President Edward J Sullivan. “This is very much in line with the overall US economy’s slow-albeit-positive growth path.”

Sullivan noted that PCA has forecasted growth despite some conflicting economic indicators from elsewhere in the economy. “Despite some ups and downs in the US economy, the underlying economic fundamentals are solid.” For example, PCA noted the labour market has consistently seen a net monthly increase of roughly 200,000 jobs, pushing the unemployment rate below 5%. PCA also projects real GDP will grow by 1.5% in 2016, and by 2.2% in 2017.