The other shock news from the US last week was LafargeHolcim’s poor cement sales volumes in North America so far in 2016. HeidelbergCement’s third quarter financial results followed and they give us an opportunity to compare the fortunes of the world’s two largest cement producers either side of a high profile merger.
Graph 1 - Changes in cement sales volumes for LafargeHolcim, HeidelbergCement and selected European multinational producers in the first three quarters of 2016 compared to the same period in 2015 (%). Data labels are the volumes reported in 2016. Source: Company reports.
Graph 1 shows the effect of HeidelbergCement’s completion of its acquisition of Italcementi in mid-October 2016. Now that the purchase is complete its sales volumes have taken a whopping 20% boost to 73Mt. LafargeHolcim by comparison is struggling to hold sales. Although do note the difference in sales volumes between the two largest cement producers in the world. LafargeHolcim has sold nearly 2.5 times the amount of cement as HeidelbergCement so far in 2016.
Graph 2 - Changes in sales revenue for LafargeHolcim, HeidelbergCement and selected European multinational producers in the first three quarters of 2016 compared to the same period in 2015 (%). Data labels are the sales reported in 2016. Source: Company reports.
The point to take away from Graph 2 is the huge difference turbulent currency exchange rates are having on the financial returns of these companies. Like-for-like reporting of sales revenue hasn’t helped LafargeHolcim to grow but it is making a big difference to the sales of Cemex and Vicat.
Focusing on LafargeHolcim, the group has had a tough time of it so far in 2016 with falling cement sales volumes and falling sales revenue year-on-year on both a straight comparison basis and like-for-like one. Like many European cement producers negative currency effects have plagued its financial reporting. However, unlike many of its European-based competitors its like-for-like sales figures have also declined.
Particular problems have been noted in Nigeria as well as Brazil, Indonesia and Malaysia. It has managed to keep its profit indicators such as earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) mostly rising through the first three quarters of 2016 on a like-for-like basis. Yet, to give an idea of the effect fuel supply problems had in Nigeria in the third quarter of 2016 on the group’s entire bottom line, excluding Nigeria from its results would have seen its adjusted operating EBITDA rise significantly. With regard to the rest of the world, cement sales volumes have fallen in every one of the group’s territories so far in 2016 including, worryingly, its North America region. Here, falling cement sales volumes have been blamed on delays to infrastructure projects and bad weather.
By contrast, HeidelbergCement has reported rising sales revenue and profit indicators such as earnings before interest and taxation (EBIT) although its profit has fallen. Most of the good financial cheer has been derived from the new Italcementi assets although most of its territorial cement sales revenues have grown even when the effects of the new purchase have been excluded. The exception has been Africa where the group mentioned problems in Ghana due to local competition and imports.
The comparison between the world’s largest European-based cement producers is stark. LafargeHolcim made a big show of announcing the merger between Lafarge and Holcim in mid-2015. Today it is battening down the hatches as its tries to claw profit from asset sales and synergy savings. HeidelbergCement almost casually announced that it had finalised its acquisition of Italcementi in October 2016 and it has proceeded to rack up the profits at its first subsequent financial report. However, HeidelbergCement may be waiting for the regulators to finish approving parts of the deal before it makes a final announcement. For example, the Federal Trade Commission only approved the sale of various US assets on 15 November 2016. Meanwhile, the credits ratings agencies passed their own judgement when Standard & Poor upgraded its rating of HeidelbergCement earlier this week.
LafargeHolcim remains a much larger company than HeidelbergCement despite the problems it is facing so provided it can keep the investors happy it should be fine as its whittles itself down to a more sustainable shape. To this end the Swiss press has been speculating whether chief executive officer Eric Olsen will announce job cuts and plant closures at an investors meeting on 18 November 2016.