Just hours after the last Last Word went to press, reminding readers that revolutions tend to come in waves, the current revolution in Libya started. As I write, the country is split, with rebels in control in the east of the country. In a month's time, everything could be very different, but no-one would be rash enough to try to fortell the outcome. What is notable, however, is that the Libyans seem to be very keen to determine their own outcomes. Even the beleaguered rebels have voiced calls for 'no foreign intervention.' I hope that - after the botched trillion dollar wars in Iraq and Afghanistan - the international community will heed local wishes.
When I see the news reports about the ongoing conflict in Libya (a conflict that has all the hallmarks at the moment of an incipient civil war) I often feel for the cement industry workers in the country. I know that they want to go to work, to earn a wage, and to go home at the end of the day to see their families. They are like the rest of us - they want a quiet life. Now we hear that construction of a new plant by a Chinese company (Metallurgical Corporation of China) in Libya has been 'temporarily postponed,' while cement plants in Derna and Benghazi are in rebel-held areas. In a situation like this, you need to be careful. Do you put in your lot with the rebels and risk reprisals if things don't go their way? Or stay 'loyal'? It seems that many people are putting aside their fear and doing what they think is right.
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A map of the world, based on the score each country received according to The Economist's Democracy Index survey for 2010: lighter colours are 'more democratic.' |
It seems also that the young are driving these revolutions, even if they have not lived for a very long time under repression. They are also much more highly networked than their elders (one colleague of mine, 20 years younger than me, has over 800 Facebook friends) and so much more likely to be able to coordinate action. They also seem to be more 'Westernised' and to want both freedom and democracy.
And this is where I come to my point, which is that you should be careful what you wish for. Freedom is great: freedom to get rich, freedom to meet who you like, to speak to who you like and to say what you like. Freedom to espouse different political views, who knows: even freedom to diverge from mainstream views on religion and sexuality. Hmmm... as you can see, we are very rapidly getting into areas that look very controversial. Some things are best left unsaid: Freedom comes with its own restrictions - for everyone's good.
Ah, 'democracy.' What a lovely idea: Everyone has a single vote and the ideas (or political parties) that get the most votes become reality (or get into power). Cute idea, but it'll never happen.
There are innumerable problems with democracy. Not everyone votes (even though you can be fined for not voting in Australia - so much for 'freedom') so there's already a bias in the electorate. Political parties are voracious beasts and can be amoral about the means that they use to obtain votes - buying votes (or intimidating them) is by no means uncommon in many 'democracies.' Politicians are liars (some even admit it, like the prime minister of Hungary) and they will promise all sorts of things to get into office. The voters seem to be gullible enough to believe them and then either too forgetful or too apathetic to bring them to justice when they take power and start to line their pockets.
One of the main problems with democracy seems to be that of human nature. People want to pay less (or no) tax, but they want the government they elect to give them everything for free. Just look at California: you need a simple majority vote to get expenditure plans through the legislature, but a majority of 75% to get any additional taxes passed. As California governor Arnold Schwarzenegger said,6 "Our wallet is empty, our bank is closed and our credit is dried up." If the government won't promise and deliver these impossible economic scenarios, voters sack them and elect another politician who says they will deliver. I do think that the irrational expectations of voters is the fatal flaw of democracy.
Perhaps the rebellious populations of the Middle East (and the rest of the World) may need to decrease their expectations of 'freedom' and 'democracy', if they are not to be disappointed. Good luck to them all the same.
