Displaying items by tag: Afghanistan

Tajikistan: Cement production fell by 7% year-on-year to 2Mt in the first half of 2022 from 2.16Mt in the same period in 2021. The Avesta News Agency reports no reason for the decline but it noted that the construction sector had grown so far in 2022. The country’s cement industry exports around 1.5Mt/yr to neighbouring countries including Afghanistan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan.

Afghanistan: Ghori Cement has restarted production at its Baghlan plants near Pul-e-Khumr in Baghlan province after a stoppage of four months. Production halted at the units due to the high price of coal, according to Pajhwok Afghan News. The government is now supplying coal to the plants at a pre-agreed price. Other local news sources report that production has increased to 520t/day from 350t/day previously, following work on a variety of technical issues.

Pakistan: Cherat Cement and Lucky Cement are among three companies to have imported 10,000t of coal from Afghanistan in the two-month period up to 11 July 2022. Asian News International has reported the other company was Fauji Fertilizer Power Station.

The local coal price in Afghanistan was US$188/t on 11 July 2022.

Pakistan: Maple Leaf Cement’s first-half standalone sales were US$121m in the 2022 financial year, down by 33% year-on-year from a first-half 2021 financial year figure of US$91.5m. Export sales fell by 46% to US$2.63m, 2.5% of total sales. Its main export markets were Afghanistan, the Seychelles, Oman and Tanzania. The company reported a 70% increase in its consolidated net profit to US$15.2m from US$8.97m in the first half of the 2021 financial year. The producer said that it expects the domestic cement market to remain ‘stagnant’ for numerous reasons, including high inflation, increased interest rates and decelerating implementation of projects under the Public Sector Development Programme.

Cement producers in the north of Pakistan have started to increase their use of coal from Afghanistan in response to the ongoing volatility in energy markets. Research from a report by Darson Securities found that companies were already using up to 70% Afghan coal in their fuel mix with a further 20% being considered. Most of the northern producers are reported to have secured the cheaper Afghan coal for about two months of inventory, although Maple Leaf Cement was said to have four to five months of inventory. Meanwhile in the south of the country, producers were reported to be facing a tougher situation as Afghan coal costs more for them due to higher logistics charges and export orders were being reduced due to the low cost of clinker internationally. So they are focusing on the domestic market instead.

Graph 1: Cement despatches in Pakistan, 2015 – 2021. Source: All Pakistan Cement Manufacturers Association.

Data from the All Pakistan Cement Manufacturers Association (APCMA) shows that cement despatches have been steadily growing since the mid-2010s with a blip in 2020 caused by the start of the Covid-19 pandemic. The upward trend has been driven by local sales. Exports have generally grown at the same time, with more variance, but they are yet to regain the high of nearly 11Mt reported in 2009. On a rolling annual basis, local sales have remained steady since mid-2021 but exports have been slowly falling. In April 2021 they were 9.17Mt but by February 2022 they were 7.33Mt. For the February 2022 figures APCMA blamed this on the growing cost of production, rising international freight rates, mounting coal prices and a trade ban with India. On that last point for example, Pakistan-based producers exported 1.21Mt of cement to India in the 2017 – 2018 financial year before exports stopped after February 2019. Despite a brief respite in the spring of 2021 talks are still ongoing to resume trade with India.

On the corporate side the country’s largest cement producer by capacity, Lucky Cement, drew the same conclusion as the APCMA with its half-year results to 31 December 2021. Its local sales volumes were down a little but its exports were down a lot. It noted that the reason its local sales were falling but national industry local sales were up slightly was due to some competitor plants being non-operational in the previous year. However, the company managed to keep sales revenue and earnings increasing year-on-year by successfully combating growing input costs with price rises. Bestway Cement, the country’s other large producer, reported a tougher situation in the second half of 2021, with both local sales and export volumes down. This was attributed to a boom in construction activity in the second half of 2020 as Covid-19 lockdowns were eased. Demand for cement since then was said to be ‘sluggish’ due to inflation and high commodity prices. It also pinned its marked fall in exports on political and economic instability in Afghanistan. However, turnover and operating profit were both up due to higher selling prices.

Elsewhere in the sector news since the start of 2021, Pakistan’s exports to South Africa remained stymied in early 2020 due to a review of ongoing tariffs and the government decision to restrict infrastructure projects to only using locally produced cement. On the sustainability front the APCMA started to set out its decarbonisation strategy in November 2021. It may have a long way to go given that a think tank reported earlier in the year that the cement sector was the largest emitter of coal-related CO₂ emissions in the country, even more than power generation. Alongside this plenty of capacity additions have been announced. Lucky Cement started commercial cement production at its 1.2Mt/yr integrated Samawah cement plant in March 2021. Various new cement plants and upgrades to existing plants have been proposed by Bestway Cement, Cherat Cement, Fauji Cement, Kohat Cement Company, Lucky Cement and Maple Leaf Cement. Finally of note to a sector troubled by energy prices, in September 2021 the Pakistan International Bulk Terminal said it was going to upgrade its coal handling capacity to around 17Mt/yr by 2024.

Last week’s Global Cement Weekly covered Turkey. The contrasts are interesting because both of these countries have high cement exports and have raised energy concerns recently. This leads to the question of whether other cement exporters may be vulnerable to the current situation. Pakistan isn’t the only country where the cement industry is facing the negative effects of growing energy costs. This week in the sector news, Spain-based Tudela Veguín has shut down the kiln at its La Robla plant down for 10 days due to high electricity prices, Thailand-based Siam Cement Group (SCG) announced it was reviewing its investment plans and the UK-based Mineral Products Association lobbied the government on the issue.

The shift to Afghan coal by Pakistan’s cement producers is rational given the current situation. No doubt fuel buyers all over the world are doing similar things. In January 2022 the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecast that Pakistan’s gross domestic product would grow by around 4% for 2021, 2022 and 2023 but current geopolitical events may test these estimates. Over the last year domestic cement demand has remained strong but inflation, growing input costs and the impetus to further rise prices may change this. Meanwhile, lots of new production capacity is in the pipeline and, if or when it is built, it may add additional competition pressure. This may present a problem in Pakistan if capacity utilisation levels drop but input costs keep on going up.

Pakistan: Cement plants in North Pakistan are using 70% Afghan coal in their fuel mix, and may increase the figure to 90%. Afghan coal costs US$170 – 200/t, in line with local Pakistani coal prices. The News International has reported that fossil fuel supply disruptions ensuing from the on-going war in Ukraine have increased global coal prices. Additionally, Indonesian coal is subject to a ban on exports, while bad rains have disturbed Australian coal production. On 14 March 2022, the price of South African coal exported from Richard Bay, Umhlathuze Municipality, was US$460/t, up by 95% month-on-month from US$236/t on 10 February 2022. South Africa has previously been a major source of coal for Northern Pakistani cement production. Cement producers in the region have on average 4 – 5 months’ supply of coal in inventory.

Pakistan: All Pakistan Cement Manufacturers Association (APCMA) members exported 405,000t of cement in February 2022, down by 34% year-on-year from 616,000t in February 2021. Domestic deliveries also dropped, by under 1% to 3.95Mt from 3.96Mt. Amid the declines, Pakistani cement producers have reported a steep rise in their costs due to increases in international freight rates and coal prices and the country’s on-going ban on trade with neighbouring India. Cheaper Iranian cement has undercut Pakistani cement sales to Bangladesh, while the Afghan market has yet to recover following the withdrawal of peacekeeping forces.

Pakistan: Cement producers have reported a rise in operating costs. The News International newspaper has reported that costs have risen due to a hike in the price of imported Afghan coal. The price of the coal rose by 13% to US$170/t from US$150/t in the week leading up to 10 February. The rise brings it to just 23% below the price of imported coal from South Africa, which is currently US$236/t.

The Pakistani cement industry depends on imports of coal, of which 30 – 40% came from Afghanistan in Northern Pakistani cement production in 2021.

Afghanistan: The acting deputy prime minister of the interim government in Afghanistan hosted talks between investors from Afghanistan and Russia on 4 January 2021. Anadolu News Agency has reported that the investors plan to collaborate on the establishment of a new cement company.

Acting deputy culture and information minister Zabiullah Mujahid tweeted that the meeting covered the establishment of cement plants‘in detail’. He added that the government will strive to establish investor-friendly laws.

Pakistan: The All Pakistan Cement Manufacturers Association (APCMA) recorded a 5.7% year-on-year decline in overall cement sales in the first quarter of the 2022 financial year to 12.8Mt from 13.6Mt in the corresponding period of the 2021 financial year. Intensified local construction activity increased domestic cement sales by 4% to 11.3Mt/yr from 10.9Mt/yr.

Costs increased – notably the price of coal, which more than tripled year-on-year to US$210/t from US$68/t. Its transport costs from South Africa more than doubled to US$30/t from US$11/t. Currency effects exacerbated the rise in costs. The Dawn newspaper has reported that exports fell by 44% in the period to 1.55Mt from 2.74Mt. Afghanistan had previously received 606,000t of Pakistani cement exports, 22% of the total. This figure fell by 36% year-on-year to 389,000t, 25% of the first-quarter 2021 total, due to political unrest and increased transport costs.