Displaying items by tag: Consumption

Bangladesh: Crown Cement has estimated the total cost of cement capacity currently unused in Bangladesh at US$1.46bn. The figure is even higher when maintenance costs are included, according to Crown Cement's chief advisor Masud Khan. Over the past 15 years, national cement capacity has nearly quadrupled to 83.3Mt/yr from 22.4Mt/yr, while demand has merely doubled to 46.7Mt/yr from 22.8Mt/yr. Khan estimated the cost per 1Mt/yr of new Bangladeshi cement capacity over the period at US$40m.

Khan said that producers continue to anticipate an acceleration in local cement consumption growth in the medium-term future. Reflecting on the situation up to the end of 2022, he said "They thought if they were not prepared for the growing demand, they would lose their market share. That was why they continued expansion, bearing the burden of excess capacity." Khan forecast a further decline in the industry's capacity utilisation if gross domestic product undergoes a forecast drop during the 2023 financial year, impacting on producers' results for the year.

New Zealand: Holcim New Zealand says that it has received a mill for use in its upcoming Auckland cement replacement products import and distribution facility. The company opted for a Christian Pfeiffer ball mill for the project.

Holcim New Zealand says that alternative materials imported via the Auckland facility will eliminate 100,000t/yr of cement from New Zealand's 1.6Mt/yr consumption. The company expects that this will cut 78,000t/yr of CO₂ emissions.

US: Martin Marietta Materials recorded revenues of US$4.68bn throughout the first nine months of 2022, up by 20% year-on-year from US$3.92bn. Cement sales contributed US$455m, 9.7% of total revenues, up by 27% from US$358m. Cost of revenues rose by 4% for the group, to US$3.62bn from US$2.92bn. Nonetheless, Martin Marietta Materials successfully recorded nine-month net earnings growth of 25% year-on-year, to US$638m from US$546m.

Chair and CEO Ward Nye said that double-digit price growth drove the company's record profitability. He said "Importantly, we expect a return to expanding margins in the fourth quarter of 2022, as the compounding effect of multiple pricing actions throughout the year offsets continued inflationary pressure and a slowdown in single-family residential construction. Martin Marietta's strategic coast-to-coast footprint is well positioned for long-term growth, driven by favourable population migration trends, housing shortages in our markets and a long-term federal highway bill complemented by healthy Department of Transportation budgets in the company's key states. Near-term, we expect affordability-driven headwinds in the single-family residential end market will be offset by a significant acceleration in public infrastructure investment and continued strength in large-scale energy, domestic manufacturing and multi-family residential projects."

India: UltraTech Cement's consolidated sales were US$3.51bn during the first half of the 2023 financial year, which began on 1 April 2022, up by 22% from US$2.88bn in the first half of the 2022 financial year. Its net profit was US$283m, down by 22% year-on-year from US$363m. This was due to a 32% cost rise to US$3.13bn from US$2.38bn. Power and fuel contributed 32% of costs at US$1bn, up by 68% from US$598m in the first half of the 2021 financial year.

UltraTech Cement said that it began to see signs of cement demand revival in September 2022, following traditionally subdued second-quarter demand due to seasonal rains.

Kazakhstan: Steppe Cement's sales were US$68.7m during the first nine months of 2022, up by 13% year-on-year from US$60.6m in the corresponding period in 2021. Its cement sales volumes were 1.36Mt, down by 1% year-on-year from 1.38Mt.

Kazakhstan's cement demand grew by 2% year-on-year to 9.4Mt in the first nine months of 2022. Steppe Cement expects the Kazakh cement market to grow by 2% year-on-year to 11.8Mt throughout 2022. Steppe Cement holds a 15% market share.

Vietnam: The Vietnam National Cement Association (VNCA) recorded combined national cement and clinker exports of 24.8Mt in the first nine months of 2022, down by 26% year-on-year from the same period in 2021. This corresponded to US$1.1bn in value, down by 14% year-on-year. Việt Nam News has reported that the VNCA expects to achieve total cement and clinker production of 107Mt, against a national capacity of 130Mt/yr. Domestic demand was 65Mt.

Earlier in 2022, Long Son Cement commissioned a new 2.5Mt/yr integrated cement plant, raising national overcapacity to 200% from 196%.

Peru: Grupo Gloria subsidiary Yura says that it is contemplating a cement production capacity expansion. The producer says that process optimisation across its Arequipa and Southern Peruvian cement footprint might go some way towards achieving the envisioned growth. It added that any such projects would go hand in hand with a reform of its customer service practices. Yura is also evaluating possible new limestone mining projects at Pampas del Pongo and Zafranal, and an expansion of its lime production.

DF Sud News has reported that Yura expects to increase its Peruvian cement deliveries by 8 – 10% year-on-year in 2022. Its cement, concrete and lime director for Peru, Chile and Bolivia, Julio Cáceres, forecasts that Peru’s construction demand will continue to grow at twice the rate of gross domestic product. He acknowledged that the company’s 2023 results will likely reflect the country’s expected muted growth compared to 2022. Cáceres said that US$700m-worth of private investment across 30 residential projects in Arequipa is currently suspended, pending the publication of the city’s revised metropolitan development plan.

Nigerian billionaire Aliko Dangote was spotted attending the inauguration ceremony of Kenyan President William Ruto earlier in September 2022. This is relevant because Dangote’s cement company previously announced plans in 2016 to build two 1.5Mt/yr plants in Kenya, near Nairobi and Mombasa respectively. They were intended to become operational by 2021. Unfortunately, Dangote himself allegedly described Kenya as being more corrupt than Nigeria to Kenyan broadcast journalist Jeff Koinange a few years later and nothing more happened. Back in 2014 Ruto visited Dangote Cement’s Obajana plant in Kogi state in Nigeria when the politician was the Deputy President of Kenya. Dangote’s attendance at the presidential inauguration this month suggests at the very least that his relationship with Ruto remains active. Maybe more news on those planned plants will follow.

Graph 1: Cement in Kenya, 2018 – June 2022. Source: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS).

The reason why the owner of Africa’s largest cement company might be interested in the Kenyan market can be seen in its latest cement production figures. Data from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) shows that production for the first half of 2022 grew by 20% year-on-year to 4.95Mt in the first half of 2022, from 4.12Mt in the same period in 2021. Cement production was broadly similar in 2018 and 2019 at around 6Mt. It then increased by 25% to 9.25Mt in 2021 from 7.41Mt in 2020. On a rolling annual basis, production picked up at the start of 2020 and has risen consistently since then each month, peaking at over 10Mt in May 2022.

However, the elections in August 2022 probably slowed this growth trend, despite being much more peaceful than those in 2007, although the KNBS is yet to release the data. Bamburi Cement said in its outlook for the second half of 2022 that it expected markets to recover after the ballot. The subsidiary of Holcim reported increasing turnover in the first half of 2022, due to mounting sales volumes and price rises, but its profit fell sharply. It blamed this on fuel and logistics inflation, growing clinker import costs as well as negative currency exchange effects.

That last point about imported clinker is worth noting given that a government report in late 2021 found that the country had a clinker shortage of up to 3.3Mt/yr. Yet, the KNBS data in recent years shows that cement production and consumption are broadly similar, suggesting that the shortfall in clinker is being imported. The report added that 59% of the imported clinker originated from Egypt, tariff free, due to a free trade agreement. Local producers were reported to have been operating at a 65% capacity utilisation rate. Egypt and the UAE accounted for most of the imported clinker followed by Saudi Arabia. An interview in the Standard newspaper at this time with Bamburi Cement’s managing director Seddiq Hassani revealed that, despite locally produced clinker being cheaper than imported clinker, some producers were reluctant to hand control of a key input material over to their local competitors. Other producers, predictably, were trying to persuade the government to raise the duty on imports of clinker from 10% to 25%. Tariff discussions have continued in 2022.

So far in 2022 the other big stories in the sector have included Bamburi Cement’s plans to build two solar power plants and a major repair to the kiln shell at East Africa Portland Cement’s (EAPCC) Athi River cement plant. The solar plants will be built next to Bamburi Cement’s integrated Mombasa plant and its Nairobi grinding plant. Once operational in 2023 they are anticipated to supply up to 40% of the cement producer’s total power supply. Devki Group, the owner of National Cement, also announced plans in August 2022 to set up a wind farm near Mombasa. However, this seems more like an attempt to diversify the group into electricity production rather than to supply its own plant near Nairobi. EAPCC’s upgrade project has completed this week after about a month and half of work. It is intended to increase the plant’s cement production by 50%.

Cement production started in rise in 2020 but the Covid-19 pandemic may have constrained this. Production (and consumption) then jumped up in 2021 and looks set to do similar in 2022 bar a possible blip from the elections in August 2022. This is despite the global market issues arising from the end of Covid-19 and the war in Ukraine. These may be uncertain times but the fundamentals for the Kenyan cement market look positive despite rising end prices. Unsurprisingly, it looks likely that Dangote Cement remains keen to extend its business to Kenya.

Pakistan: Cherat Cement expects cement consumption in Pakistan to fall by 3 – 4% year-on-year in the 2023 financial year, which will end on 30 June 2023. Amid the general decline, the company foresees a slight rise in areas devastated by recent flooding with the onset of repair and rebuilding works during the second half of the financial year. Exports are expected to fall by 20%, with prices remaining level while costs increase due to the high price of imported coal.

Pakistan Business News has reported that Cherat Cement is reappraising the investment cost and planned commercial operation date of its upcoming 8000 – 9000t/day new cement plant. It previously valued the project at US$158 – 173m.

Vietnam: Cement producers and exporters will pay an additional 5 – 10% tariff on their exports of cement and clinker from 1 January 2023. Viet Nam News has reported that the move aims to bring down local cement prices by increasing supply in the country. These have risen over the past six months, while export prices have remained level.

The Vietnam National Cement Association (VNCA) says that its members are struggling to increase exports in a highly competitive export market. In the six months up to the end of August 2022, China, the Philippines, Bangladesh, Malaysia and Taiwan all reduced their imports of Vietnamese cement. The decline included a ‘substantial’ reduction of imports by China and the Philippines. Exporters faced logistical difficulties in shipping cement to the Philippines, while China’s consumption dropped due to new Covid-19 restrictions and low residential construction activity there.

The VNCA forecasts cement production of 108Mt in 2022, against a national demand of 65Mt. It projected that a series of infrastructure projects will bolster domestic consumption between 2022 and 2025.