Displaying items by tag: Overcapacity

Vietnam: The Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc has asked the Ministry of Construction and VICEM to report on the country’s excess cement capacity, which is set to reach 25-36Mt/yr by 2020.

The latest statistics from the Ministry of Construction’s Building Material Department show that cement consumption was approximately 45Mt in the first half of 2018, a rise of 30% year-on-year compared to the same period of 2017, and more than 50% of the year’s plan.

The sector’s capacity is 110Mt/yr, including the volume from plants expected to be built in 2018. Aside from that, existing plants have kept improving technology so their production capacity might reach 120-130Mt/yr by 2020.

Three large projects with the total capacity of 10Mt/yr were put into operation in the past 12 months. In 2019 many more projects are expected to come into operation, with a total new capacity of 12Mt/yr coming online.

Egypt: Medhat Istvanos, head of the cement division of the Chamber of Building Materials, affiliated to the Federation of Egyptian Industries, says that exports from the country are being made uncompetitive due to the government’s decision to raise energy prices in June 2018. He said that the local exchange rate had aided exports but that “the government’s bureaucracy has eliminated export hopes,” according to the Daily News Egypt newspaper. The local industry exported cement worth US$57m during the first half of 2018.

Istvanos said that the industry has a production capacity utilization rate of 60% with a production capacity of 84Mt/yr but consumption of only 54Mt/yr. He added that the decision to build the new 12Mt/yr Beni Suef cement plant was “not based on precise information” and that it had harmed local production.

Republic of Congo: Cement producers have expressed concerns about government plans to increase Value Added Tax (VAT) on cement to 18% from 5%. Cement prices are expected to rise as manufacturers pass the extra cost on to consumers, according to the Central African Information Agency. An industry source quoted by the agency said that local cement plants are doing badly due to a capacity utilisation rate of 10 – 20%. The country has five cement plants with a production capacity of 3.2Mt/yr but cement consumption was only 0.7Mt in 2017.

Germany: ThyssenKrupp has decreased its earnings forecast for its 2017 – 2018 financial year due to the poor performance of its Industrial Solutions division. The division is expected to report a negative adjusted earnings before interest and taxation (EBIT) of Euro200m in the third quarter of the year due to higher expected total costs, particularly for a cement plant in Saudi Arabia and two other industrial projects. The group said that the number of major projects in the cement and fertiliser sector had decreased ‘considerably,’ partly due to the production overcapacity in the cement market.

"It is important to me to call it what it is. The results of our analysis at Industrial Solutions are anything but satisfying. The structure of plant construction must be adjusted to the changed market conditions in order to achieve a turnaround and finally become competitive again. We must act swiftly here," said Guido Kerkhoff, chairman of the executive board of ThyssenKupp. The group has proposed focusing its Industrial Solutions division on small and medium-sized projects and targeting plant construction on the higher-margin service business.

In mid-2017 the group announced plans to reorganised its Industrial Solutions division, including the decision to cut 1500 jobs in operational areas.

Bangladesh: The local cement industry has a cement production utilisation rate of 54%. Cement consumption was 27.1Mt in 2017, according to the Daily Star newspaper. However, the country had a production capacity of 50.2Mt/yr in 2017 from around 45 companies of various sizes. Production capacity is expected to grow to 80Mt/yr by 2019.

Masud Khan, the chief executive officer of Crown Cement Group, forecasts that cement consumption will grow by 8 – 10% by 2022. He blamed the local oversupply on an overpopulated market. Other issues the local industry faces include a recent rise in the price of raw materials, port congestion which causes delay in unloading raw materials, a lack of smaller ships, local currency depreciation, low retail price and low load limits on local roads.

Vietnam: At a recent working session with the authorities of Vietnam’s northern province of Ha Nam, Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc asked the region not to grant an investment license for any new cement plants. He also urged the provincial authorities to take a closer look at environmental protection.

At present, Ha Nam province has 11 rotary kilns making cement that share a combined capacity of 21Mt/yr, including the Xuan Thanh 2, the Vissai Ha Nam, and the Thanh Thang cement plants. The province has the largest production capacity in the country, according to data from the Ministry of Construction.

Algeria: Production overcapacity has reduced the profits of LafargeHolcim’s subsidiary in Algeria. A source at the cement producer told the El Watan newspaper that the cement market had been hit by overcapacity since July 2017. New capacity is expected to increase local production to a surplus of 20Mt/yr in 2020. LafargeHolcim Algeria aims to export 5Mt/yr but this will still leave an additional production capacity of 15Mt/yr that is expected to lead to a price war and the potential shutdown of plants. In its 2017 annual report the cement producer said that, “…profitability in Algeria diminished in the second half of the year, on the back of weaker cement demand and a shift from a sold-out to an over-supplied environment.”

Uganda: Three new cement plants or upgrades to existing plants opening in 2018 are expected to dwarf local demand. Hima Cement, a subsidiary of LafargeHolcim, plans to open a new 1Mt/yr grinding plant at Nyakesi, Tororo Cement is expanding its plant to 3Mt/yr and Kenya's National Cement is building a plant at Mbale, according to the Ugandan Independent newspaper. Following completion of the three projects local production capacity will rise to 6.8Mt/yr from 3.6Mt/yr. Local demand is 2.4Mt/yr.

Cement industry executives are expecting growth in the construction industry as the government starts infrastructure projects in the oil and gas sector. The cement producers also expect export markets to support local production capacity growth, particularly in South Sudan, western Kenya and eastern Democratic Republic of Congo.

It’s been a pessimistic month for the Indian cement industry with Ministry of Commerce & Industry data showing that cement production has fallen year-on-year every month since December 2016. This was followed by the Cement Manufacturers Association (CMA) saying that the industry was sitting on 100Mt/yr of excess production capacity. Now, the credit ratings agency ICRA has followed the data and downgraded its forecast for cement demand growth to not more than 4% for the 2017 - 2018 financial year.

Graph 1: Annual cement production in India. Source: Ministry of Commerce & Industry.

Graph 2: Monthly cement production growth rate year-on-year in India: Source: Ministry of Commerce & Industry.

Graph 1 shows a production peak in the 2015 - 2016 financial year before falling monthly production broke the trend in the 2016 - 2017 period. Graph 2 pinpoints the month it started to go wrong, November 2016, when the government introduced its demonetisation policy. Production growth went negative the following month in December 2017 and it hasn’t managed to right itself since then and grow. It’s convenient to blame the government for the slump in production but it troughed in February 2017 before taking a lower level of decline since then.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) annual report in August 2017 suggests that the policy failed in its principal purpose of reducing the kind of corruption that a cash heavy economy can hide such as tax avoidance. People reportedly managed to find ways to bypass the bank deposit limit and may have successfully laundered large amounts of cash without being caught. However, as commentators like the Financial Times have pointed out, the longer term implications of forcing the economy towards digital payments and increasing the tax base could yet be beneficial overall.

Graph 3: Cement production capacity utilisation rates in India. Source: UltraTech Cement.

Moving on, the CMA has blamed production overcapacity for the current mess and Graph 3 shows the problem starkly. If anything the CMA appears to have downplayed the over capacity crisis facing India, as UltraTech Cement’s figures (using data from the Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion) show an overcapacity of 155Mt in the 2016 – 2017 year and this will grow to a forecast 157Mt in the next financial year, even though the utilisation rate is expected to rise slightly. UltraTech Cement’s estimates don’t see the utilisation rate topping 70% until the 2020 – 2021 financial year. Analysts quoted in the Mint business newspaper concur, although they reckoned it would the rate would bounce sooner, in 2019 - 2020. Last month when the CMA moaned about the industry's excess capacity it pinned its hopes on infrastructure schemes like the Mumbai-Ahmedabad bullet train. This prompted an official at JK Cements to say that he didn't think that one train line was going to make much of a difference.

This is one reason why ICRA’s and the other credit agencies’ growth rate forecasts for cement demand are important, because they indicate how fast India might be able to close the gap between production capcity and demand. Unfortunately demonetisation scuppered ICRA’s growth prediciton for 2016 – 2017. It forecast a rate of 6% but it actually fell by 1.2%! So downgrading its forecast for 2017 – 2018, with fears of weather and the implementation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) in the second half of the year, is ominious. Major cement producers such as Ultratech Cement and Ambuja Cement have based their road to recovery in their latest investor presentations on a 6% growth rate or higher. Pitch it lower and the gap doesn’t close. Here’s hoping for a brisk second half.

Holcim Indonesia inaugurated a new cement terminal in Lampung last week. Unfortunately, the spectre of industry overcapacity haunts the country at present and the subsidiary of LafargeHolcim may be late to the party. The Indonesian Cement Association (ASI) has been publicly warning the government of overcapacity since the end of the summer. Its first line of action has been to lobby for restrictions on producer permits to slow the growth of new plants.

ASI figures show that cement sales in September 2016 fell by 3.3% to 5.64Mt compared to August 2016 due to lower residential sector demand. Domestic cement sales rose by 2.95% year-on-year to 44.7Mt in the first nine months of 2016 and the ASI expects sales growth of 3 – 4% for 2016 overall. Yet, the risk of overcapacity is stark. Cement production capacity has nearly doubled from 59.3Mt/yr in 2012 to 92.7Mt/yr in 2016 but demand is projected to only reach 65Mt in 2016, leaving a production oversupply of 27.7Mt. Regional consumption has fallen in Jakarta, Banten and West Java, particularly in the first two. Elsewhere, it has grown, particularly in Central Java, as well as Yogyakarta and East Java to a lesser extent.

Initial Global Cement Directory 2017 research places active production capacity at 66.3Mt/yr suggesting that the ASI may be exaggerating the risk of overcapacity. The additional c30Mt/yr capacity arises from plants that have been proposed, that are actually under construction or that have been mothballed. However, the ASI data should be more accurate as it represents the local producers. Either way, capacity is growing faster than consumption as can be seen in graph 1.

Graph 1: Cement consumption and production capacity in Indonesia, 2012 – 2016. Source: Indonesian Cement Association, Global Cement Directory 2012 – 2017.

Semen Indonesia, the country’s largest producer, reported that its revenue fell very slightly to US$1.4bn in the first nine months of 2016 and its net profit fell by 8.4% to US$215m. It blamed this on a fall in sales volumes and prices due to rising competition. The other large producers have said similar in the past. Indocement, the country’s second largest producer after Semen Indonesia, saw its revenue fall by 11.9% to US$837m in the first nine months of 2016 and its profit fell by 2.2% to US$231m. LafargeHolcim described the market as affected by overcapacity and ‘a difficult competitive environment.’

Back in May 2016 a feature on the predicament facing the Indonesian cement industry in the Jakarta Post suggested that producers were building new capacity despite the risks of overcapacity to win market share. Cement producers are about to find out whether this will work or not. Meanwhile it seems unlikely that the measures the ASI is suggesting will do much to alleviate the looming crisis. Still, on the positive side, it’s looking like a good time to buy cement as a consumer.

For more information about the cement industry in Indonesia view the first part of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) feature in the October 2016 issue of Global Cement Magazine