Displaying items by tag: Project

Egypt: Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi inaugurated a cement and marble production complex worth US$1.1bn to the south of Cairo on 15 August 2018. The 500-hectare industrial complex is located 12km north of the Upper Egyptian governorate of Beni Suef.

It took 21 months to complete the complex, which includes three cement plants with a combined annual production capacity of 12Mt/yr. Egypt, through the Armed Forces Engineering Authority, worked together with 20 local and international companies on the project.
During the unveiling ceremony, Sisi said that such industrial projects would help reduce imports, while saving foreign currency and offering thousands of job opportunities to local people.

There have been quite a few new cement plant project announcements in the past week, with expansions announced in Mexico, Nigeria, Bangladesh, Indonesia, India and Uzbekistan. 11.8Mt/yr of new capacity has been announced in just a week, mostly from a whopping 9.0Mt/yr project in Central Sulawesi, Indonesia, the first in that Province. Notable in this project, as well as two of the others, is the involvement, once again, of large Chinese-based cement plant manufacturers and / or finance and associated influence from Chinese parties.

Of course, this trend is nothing new. The rise of Chinese cement plant manufacturers, particularly into Africa and other developing cement markets, has been covered in previous Global Cement Weekly columns. However, it does appear to be stepping up a notch in 2018 compared to previous years. So far this year we have reported on 21 confirmed Chinese cement plants being built in 15 countries other than China, from the planning stage to ‘up-and-running.’ A total of 37.2Mt/yr, more than the capacity of Germany, is being built across Algeria, Cambodia, Cameroon, Indonesia, Kyrgyzstan, Namibia, Nepal, Nigeria, Pakistan, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkey, Ukraine, Uzbekistan and Zambia. That’s not including a similarly large number of news stories where the supplier is not explicitly stated. This is seen a lot in Indian projects, as well as in Vietnam, where the cement sector appears to still be expanding, despite the government’s pronouncements. In many of these cases, and elsewhere, these unidentified suppliers are likely to be Chinese.

The driver for this increase in Chinese-led cement sector investment is, of course, the severe overcapacity in China’s domestic cement sector. The government is currently undertaking its most drastic capacity reduction measures so far. The ongoing integration of Sinoma and CNBM is one example of the lengths it will go to to reduce the current inefficiencies in the sector. This week the Chinese government reiterated its strict prohibition on new greenfield cement plants. It also warned that any producer that wants to upgrade its plant with a new line must only install the same capacity as the line that will be replaced, amid concerns that some were flouting this rule. This comes as the profits of major producers have been rising. Presumably the government would like them to climb further still.

So where does this leave the more established (read ‘European’) cement plant manufacturers such as Fives, FLSmidth, KHD and thyssenkrupp Industrial Solutions, some of which are fully or partly-owned by Chinese companies? Well, with fewer full-line projects available in developing regions due to the rise of the Chinese, they have become increasingly specialised in specific areas. Those that want European equipment will increasingly specify a pyro-line from Supplier A, a mill or two from Supplier B, conveyors and storage from supplier C, and so on. Arranging this, as it turns out, is something that Chinese plant manufacturers are quite keen to do. Take, for example, FLSmidth working for Sinoma (China) alongside Atlas Copco (Sweden) and Kawasaki Heavy Industries (Japan) on a cement plant in Indonesia. Indeed, FLSmidth signed a framework with CNBM on future collaborations in July 2018. FLSmidth and CNBM already have an extensive ‘back catalogue’ of joint projects. FLSmidth has valuable expertise that Chinese firms need to complete these kinds of projects.

Of course, another European supplier, Germany’s KHD, is mostly owned by China’s AVIC. In a forthcoming interview in the September 2018 issue of Global Cement Magazine, KHD’s CEO Gerold Keune states that the Engineering, Procurement and Construction (EPC) scene is now ‘completely dominated’ by Chinese suppliers. KHD fits in by providing a wide range of equipment but, crucially, great expertise in pyroprocessing and crushing solutions. It itself relies on smaller firms to provide their knowledge to specific parts of a larger project, be it conveyors, feeding systems or silos. Everyone is getting better and better, but in a smaller and smaller area.

Also in the September 2018 issue of Global Cement Magazine will be a report from the VDMA’s Large Industrial Plant Manufacturer’s group (AGAB) in Germany, which highlights another advantage for the Europeans: Digitisation. According to a VDMA survey, the industry anticipates a positive influence from digitisation activities on sales and earnings and expects to see margins improve by up to 10% as a result of the efficiencies it offers over the next three years. In this regard they are ahead of the Chinese mega-suppliers.

The conclusion from this wide-ranging column? The integration of Chinese weight and European know-how is stepping up a notch and will only accelerate from here. Can everyone be ‘winners?’ The next few years may reveal some of the answers.

Indonesia: A Chinese company, in cooperation with PT Banggai Citra Lestari, has announced that it will build a cement factory in the district of Banggai, Central Sulawesi. It will be the first cement factory in the Province.

"We already carried out a survey for a location in the sub-district of Balantak and we already have the mining license," said Budi Kurniadi, CEO of PT Banggai Citra Lestari at a meeting with Central Sulawesi Governor Longki Djanggola. He was speaking alongside the project manager Wang Yong.

Kurniadi announced that his company and the unnamed Chinese partner would build a factory with a production capacity of 9.0Mt/yr of cement. Governor Longki Djanggola said he appreciated the plan and pledged to facilitate implementation of the project.

India: Gujarat Sidhee Cement has commissioned a 5.5MW waste heat recovery plant at its Sidheegram plant in Gujarat. The project has a budget of US$10m. Power generated from the unit is expected save the plant US$2.6m/yr .

Qatar: Qatar National Cement Company (QNCC) plans to open its fifth cement plant in the first half of 2018. The move will increase its cement production capacity of 5500t/day, according to the Qatar Tribune newspaper. However, its sales of cement fell slightly to 3.4Mt in 2017 from 3.7Mt in 2016.

The cement producer’s sales revenue fell by 9.6% year-on-year to US$283m in 2017 from US$313m in 2016. Its net profit decreased by 31% to US$90m from US$130m. The company blamed the falling profit on a poor local economy causing poor demand and a reduced selling price since April 2017.

Paraguay: Industria Nacional del Cemento (INC) expects to begin March 2018 with a 30% production rise, following the opening of a new mill, according to its president Jorge Mendez. Production will increase to 1.4 million bags per month, from 1.1 million bags per month at present. Its market share will increase to 70%-75%, from 51% at present. This is anticipated to add an extra US$50m to the company’s turnover. The new mill is currently 90% complete and has cost the company US$11.5m.

The small cement industry of Mozambique, in south west Africa must be an interesting place to make cement. On one side the country's producers, like their more vocal South African counterparts, have been fighting off cheap imports from Iran, Pakistan, China et al. On the other side of the coin though, Mozambique has growing domestic demand and is within striking distance of growing markets further into Africa, like Malawi and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).

With the announcement this week that there will be not one but two new integrated cement plants in the country, bringing over 2Mt/yr of new capacity, everything should be set fair for the coming years then, shouldn't it? Domestic production will rise, the price of local cement will fall as a result, competition from imports will drop off and money will be made from new exports.

Except that might not happen. Before the announcement of these two plants, (one of which does not state a capacity), there was around 5.5Mt/yr of grinding and integrated capacity either currently active in Mozambique or due to come onstream in 2015. With the new projects this rises to over 7.5Mt/yr.

The desirable chain of events described above starts to break down due to the fact that domestic demand in Mozambique, while rising, is not currently anywhere near as high as domestic supply. The United States Geological Survey estimated that the country produced just 1.2Mt/yr in 2012. Data for 2013 and 2014, though unavailable, is highly unlikely to show a three-fold increase. Indeed Insitec, a minority shareholder in Cimentos de Moçambique, predicted in 2014 that demand for that year would rise to just 1.5Mt, before hitting the dizzying heights of 1.8Mt in 2018 – And that's still three years away!

So what are the options? Option 1: Some or all of the planned and mooted cement plants will fail to come to fruition. Option 2: Some or all of the plants will be built but will operate at reduced capacity and/or on a campaign basis. Option 3: The Mozambican cement industry becomes a regional powerhouse and starts to export to its neighbours.

Option 1 is certainly possible. Limak Group, one of the parties linked to the new projects, is a Turkish cement producer that is inexperienced outside of Turkey. There has also been a lack of information on the progress of projects by Austral Cimentos ('coming on stream in 2015'), Star Cement and Consolidated Building Materials, although a lack of progress reports does not necessarily imply 'no progress.'

Option 2 is more likely, as some producers already operate on a campaign basis. InterCement's plant at Nacala, formerly an integrated plant, currently operates only as a grinding station. Option 3 is also possible, with Malawi particularly lacking in cement production facilities.
In reality a combination of all three 'Options' is the most likely outcome. However, this will lead to Mozambique becoming yet another player in an increasingly busy African cement market. The desire for self-sufficiency in cement production, a common goal for the region's governments, can easily lead to over-estimates of local demand growth, with resultant over-capacity. Of course the expectation that all African countries can get rid of this extra cement capacity via exports will ultimately backfire.

In southern Africa we already have South Africa exporting. Angola declared 'cement self-sufficiency' in October 2014 and banned imports at the start of 2015. Zambia, Botswana, Zimbabwe and DRC all have large-scale Dangote and/or PCC projects near completion or in production that will greatly reduce their need for imports. Meanwhile, further north, Nigeria is already a gigantic producer and significant cement exporter. Cameroon has recently banned imports and Ghana is thinking of doing the same. Over in the east of Africa, Ethiopia's (and the rest of that region's) rapidly-developing situation was covered in this column just two weeks ago.

Finally, in the north of Africa, Algeria has declared its intention to be self-sufficient in cement by 2016. This news must have 'gone down like a lead balloon' in Italy, Spain and Greece, which have been reliant on north African markets after the bottoms fell out of their own economies. In the north east, Egypt has different problems at present, also described previously. It needs fuel not cement!

So where does this all lead for regional cement dynamics in Africa? Well perhaps the situation in India points the way. There, as in Africa, local and regional producers with the desire to expand grew from their local bases and eventually overlapped. Against a backdrop of lower-than-expected demand, the country now has overcapacity. This has resulted in smaller producers being acquired and leaving the market.

Could this eventually happen in Africa? Only time will tell. However one thing is certain: It's just not possible for every country to export to every other country!