Displaying items by tag: Results

India: The impact of the coronavirus pandemic was visible in the financial performance of ACC, one of LafargeHolcim’s major Indian subsidiaries, during the three months to 31 March 2020. For the quarter, the company’s consolidated net profit fell by 6.6% on a year-on-year basis to US$42.1m, while net sales declined by 11% to US$448m on the back of a steep fall in volumes, which came to 6.6Mt, 12% lower year-on-year. ACC’s ready mix concrete (RMC) volumes remained stable at 930,000t.

The pandemic mainly impacted sales volumes in March 2020, whereas January and February 2020 saw healthy growth in both cement and RMC sales. ACC said that this was due to a focus on premium products, increase in value-added solutions in its ready mix business, cost reductions on the manufacturing side and logistics-derived savings. Input cost of raw materials were lower on account of material source mix optimisation and supply chain efficiencies. Consequently, the company’s earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) for the first quarter increased by 10% year-on-year to US$76.4m.

Sridhar Balakrishnan, ACC’s managing director and chief executive officer (CEO), said, “We believe that with a high probability of a normal monsoon season, growth in the rural economy will revive and stay strong. We expect cement demand to increase in the medium term once the pandemic subsides and business operations commence”.

Pakistan: Fauji Cement has reported that its net profit fell by 88% to US$3.53m for the first nine months of its 2020 fiscal year, a period that ended on 31 March 2020. The company reported that its sales plunged, having previously made a net profit of US$32m in the first nine months of its 2019 fiscal year. Analysts reported that the company’s revenue saw a 2% year-on-year decline in sales to 0.71Mt during the nine-month period. Lower sales prices, currency depreciation and higher coal prices all contributed to the weaker performance.

Yesterday, on 14 April 2020, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecast a 3% gross domestic product (GDP) growth contraction in 2020 due to negative economic effects from the coronavirus outbreak and its containment. Most regions around the world may experience negative growth in 2020 with exceptions only in so-called Emerging and Developing Asia and Low-income Developing Countries. This is just one projection among many coming out at the moment but the prognosis is downward. This begs the questions: how will cement companies cope?

Markets for building materials are not going to disappear in these conditions but demand looks likely to be reduced. Added to this, an industry that’s been facing increasing production overcapacity over the years may be challenged by additional competition effects. Here we will look at the debt profile of some of the major multinational cement producers outside of China. Please note that this is a cursory examination of corporate debt that only looks at simple financial indicators. Company financial officers want to present themselves in best possible light and will have alternatives that point to their strengths. For a detailed view we refer readers to the credit rating agencies and the companies’ published financial information directly.

Graph 1: Net debt and EBITDA for selected multinational cement companies in 2019. Source: Company financial reports and investor presentations. Note, Conversion for reporting currencies to US$, HeidelbergCement uses Result from Current Operations Before Depreciation and Amortisation (RCOBD) and UltraTech Cement results from 2018 – 2019 financial year.

Graph 1 presents a comparison between net debt and earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) in real terms. The bigger the gap between debt and earnings then the more one starts to wonder how it can be repaid. One feature to note in this graph is the size of the debt of the three largest producers – LafargeHolcim, HeidelbergCement and Cemex – despite the fact that the companies are of different sizes. Cemex’s high debt to earnings ratio has been much commented on previously following its acquisition of Rinker just before the financial crash in 2007 and 2008. Unfortunately though, despite strenuous mitigation efforts, it remains prominent. Other positions to note are those of Buzzi Unicem and Dangote Cement, which have higher earnings than debts. These are envious positions to be in.

Graph 2: Net debt/EBITDA and EBITDA Margin for selected multinational cement companies in 2019. Source and notes as in Graph 1.

Graph 2 shows the ratio of net debt and EBITDA and the EBITDA Margin, a company’s earnings divided by its revenue. This graph better shows the relationship between debt and earnings. This can be seen well in a comparison between LafargeHolcim and HeidelbergCement. The latter has higher debts with respect to its earnings. Its debt jumped in 2016 following its acquisition of Italcementi. LafargeHolcim’s debts ballooned followed its formation by merger in 2015 but this was in line with the jump in its equity. Where it struggled was with slow earnings in the years afterwards. However, bold divestments in South-East Asia in 2018 and 2019 appear to have fixed this.

Other companies to watch in the higher Net debt/EBITDA category include India’s UltraTech Cement and both of the large Brazilian multinationals, Votorantim and InterCement. In recent years UltraTech Cement has been busy buying up other cement producers in India. The difference between the Brazilian companies may reflect the fallout from their fight to buy Cimpor back in 2012. InterCement and its parent company Camargo Corrêa won the battle to acquire the Portuguese company but Votorantim was given selected international assets outside of Brazil. Unfortunately, the Brazilian market then collapsed and Camargo Corrêa has reportedly been trying to sell some or all of its cement assets ever since.

The other financial indicator in Graph 2 is EBITDA margin or earnings/operating profit as a percentage of revenue. Higher is generally seen as better here in comparison to other companies in the same sector. Note how LafargeHolcim is ahead of HeidelbergCement and Cemex, possibly due to its cost cutting and synergies since the merger. InterCement also has a relatively high EBITDA margin, boosted by a pickup by the Brazilian economy in 2019. Again, Buzzi Unicem and Dangote Cement stand out. Both of these are public companies but are associated with family or individual ownership, although in very different markets. Neither has really indulged in any large-scale acquisitions in recent years. Dangote Cement has been steadily expanding but through building its own plants and distribution networks.

We’ve not mentioned CRH as its figures seem ‘average’ compared to the other cement producers discussed here. Average is of course relative for one of the world’s biggest building materials manufacturers with a net of debt of US$7.4bn in 2019! Yet, despite battles with activist investors over board member pay aside, CRH might be the rare producer that knows when to stop expanding. Notably in 2018 after an expansion phase, including acquisitions of Ash Grove Cement and LafargeHolcim assets previously, it publicly decided in 2018 to take a pause. There may be weaknesses in the company’s balance sheets yet to be revealed but they are not apparent using these metrics.

In summary, we’ve focused on corporate acquisitions here as the main source of debt in cement producers. This is simplistic but timing is everything when taking on a large amount of debt. Cemex is still carrying the scars from buying Rinker over a decade ago and InterCement and HeidelbergCement, to a lesser extent, are ones to watch through the next bad patch. Other things to consider are a general move to a more regional model for these producers away from a global one. UltraTech Cement’s focus on the Indian sub-continent or Dangote Cement’s work in Africa are examples of this. This approach could go wrong if the sole regions they operate in suffer disproportionately from the economic fallout from coronavirus. Or, if any producer, even one with high debts, has the good fortune to be present in a territory that suffers less from the downturn it may benefit. On a final note, it is worth mentioning that government data reports that China’s domestic cement production capacity utilisation in the two-week period ending on 10 April 2020 bounced back to 95% following the relaxation of the lockdown.

Greece: Titan Cement has published its integrated annual report for 2019, a year in which its net profit fell by 5.5% year-on-year to Euro50.9m from Euro53.8m in 2018 and sales rose by 8.0% to Euro1.61bn from Euro1.49bn. The company noted its ‘sustained performance and stronger cash flow generation’ throughout the year, with growing demand in the US and Southeastern Europe and the beginning of growth in Greece, in spite of a 7.0% year-on-year fall in cement volumes to 17.0Mt from 18.2Mt in 2018. Challenging conditions in Egypt and Turkey caused the group’s performance to deteriorate.

Titan Cement said that it is ‘on track to meet the Group’s 2020 sustainability targets and has already met ‘all targets related to emissions and water consumption.’
It acknowledged inevitable ‘short-term impacts’ of coronavirus, including reduced sales volumes ‘particularly and more severely in the second quarter of 2020,’ and has strengthened its liquidity position to Euro400m.

Egypt: Arabian Cement has reported an 88% decline in profit year-on-year to Euro 1.60m in 2019 from Euro13.3m in 2018. Sales were Euro181m, down by 5.5% from Euro 192m in 2018 due to depleted demand. Expansión newspaper called 2019 ‘the worst year in history for Egypt’s cement industry.’

As India reaches two weeks into its 21 day lockdown to combat coronavirus, the financial analysts are starting to publish their forecasts as to what the effects will be for the cement industry. The results are gloomy, with demand predicted to drop by up to 25% in the financial year to March 2021 by one analyst and 40% in March 2020 alone by another.

Graph 1: Indian cement production, rolling annual by month, January 2018 – February 2020. Source: Indian Ministry of Commerce & Industry.

The graph above sets the scene for what may be to come by showing the state of production in India in recent years. From early 2018 it picked up by 17% to 337Mt by March 2019 and stayed around there through the rest of year before breeching 340Mt in January and February 2020. The (relative) lull in production growth in 2019 was blamed by some analysts on the general election in mid-2019 and then the monsoon rains. In summary the market was improving and seemed set for further growth in 2020. Alas, this does not now seem to be the case.

Looking ahead, Rating’s agency CRISIL has published a research paper on the topic and here are some of the highlights. They break the damage down into two separate scenarios. The first, where the social distancing measures last until the end of April, cause a 10 – 15% fall in cement demand with the pain limited to the first quarter of the Indian financial year, which starts on 1 April. The second, where distancing measures last until June, cause a 20 – 25% decrease in demand, with the problems extended into the second quarter. Salient points that it makes about the anticipated recovery include a delay in infrastructure spending due to the government diverting funds to healthcare, reduced private and real estate markets and a divide between state-led affordable housing schemes in urban and rural areas. It pins its hopes on rural housing to grab demand first, followed by key infrastructure projects, especially transport schemes.

Examining the cement producers directly, CRISIL reckons that prices will fall in the face of dropping demand but that power, fuel and freight costs are all expected to fall also. Profit margins are forecast to drop compared to the 2019 – 2020 financial year but still remain higher than the two previous ones. Finally, it looked at the credit profiles of 23 companies, representing over 70% of installed production capacity. Together they had a total debt of US$7bn. It flagged up four of these companies as having high debt/earnings ratios and five with low interest coverage. The latter were described as ‘small regional firms with weak cash balances.’

That’s one view on what may happen but two recent general industry news stories offer snapshots on what may be to come for the Indian market. The first is an immediate consequence of a nationwide lockdown in a country with a population of 1.3bn and a low cost of labour. 400 construction workers at a grinding plant build for Ramco Cements in Haridaspur, Odisha, were stranded at the site when the quarantine restrictions stopped them travelling home to Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal. They took up residence at the building site and then protested when the food ran out. This point about migrant labour is noteworthy because how the Indian government relaxes the lockdown could have massive consequences upon how the construction industry recovers. A possible parallel from elsewhere in the world is the slowdown effect the Saudi Arabian cement industry suffered in late 2013 when the government took action against illegal foreign workers in the construction industry.

The second news story to keep in mind is the annual results from refractory manufacturer RHI Magnesita this week. It reported growing revenue from its cement and lime customers in 2019 but it blamed a weaker market in Europe on producers stockpiling product due to tightening magnesite and dolomite raw material availability. The takeaway here is that if supply chains supporting the cement sector and the rest of the construction industry in India at the moment are affected by the coronavirus outbreak, and government action to stop it, then there may be consequences later on. So far Global Cement hasn’t seen anything like this but the preparation for coronavirus advice from industry expert John Kilne has been to indentify and secure medium term needs, including refractory and critical spare parts and to consider potential disruption to supply chains.

In terms of what happens next once the lockdown ends in India (and other countries), one media commentator has described the response to coronavrius as the ‘hammer and the dance.’ The hammer is the economy-busting measures many governments have implemented to stop local epidemics. The dance is/are the measures that countries are using before and after an outbreak to keep it suppressed until a vaccine is developed. The worry for building material producers is how much the ‘dance’ disrupts business over the next year. All eyes will be on the East Asian producer market figures for the first quarter to see how this plays out.

China: Huaxin Cement has announced a predicted profit drop of 46% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2020, to US$100m from US$188m in the corresponding three months of 2019. Huaxin Cement said, “During the reporting period, the company's performance declined significantly, mainly due to the impact of the coronavirus epidemic, which caused sales to fall by 36%.”

Austria: RHI Magnesita’s revenue from its cement and lime sector rose by 6.4% year-on-year to Euro344m in 2019 from Euro324m in 2018. It attributed the growth to selective price increases, product portfolio choices and market share gains specifically in China, the Middle East and Africa and the Commonwealth of Independent States. It said that demand for its products in Europe had been ‘slightly’ weaker in 2019 due to customer inventory build-up in 2018 as a result of tightening magnesite and dolomite raw material availability. It forecast a stable market in 2020 however it said that coronavirus was likely to affect this.

Overall, the company reported a 6.5% fall in revenue to Euro2.9bn in 2019 due to decreased revenue in its steel division. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) fell at a similar rate. However, coronavirus aside, chief executive officer Stefan Borgas expected the company’s Production Optimisation Plan to continue strengthening the business.

China: China Tianrui Group’s net 2019 profit was US$256m, up by 50% year-on-year from US$171m. Sales rose by 20% to US$1.70bn from US$1.42bn. This was due to increased volumes and prices.

Philippines: Eagle Cement Corporation’s profit in 2019 was US$118m, up by 25% from US$94.1m in 2018. Sales for the year amounted to US$389m, up by 20% from US$324m in 2018. The Manila Times newspaper has reported that the company attributed the rises to ‘increased sales volumes growth,’ due in part to ‘robust demand for private consumption.’ Eagle president and CEO Paul Ang said, “We keep our positive stance that demand will eventually pick up once the enhanced community quarantine is lifted by the government and we remain committed to delivering high quality cement to both private and public sectors as soon as this happens.”

Eagle Cement Corporation will complete the installation of a fifth mill at its 7.1Mt/yr integrated Bulacan plant in 2020, bringing its cement capacity to 8.6Mt/yr.