Displaying items by tag: War

Russia: Eurocement has revealed how it reorganised its business in 2022 in response to foreign equipment suppliers leaving the country and disruptions to domestic supplies of raw materials. The cement producer was forced to take this action in response to the effects of European and US economic sanctions imposed upon Russia following its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The cement producer started logging all purchases as prices escalated, special procedures were developed for critical materials and services, a compliance department was created, its network of suppliers in Russia and from countries not part of the sanctions was expanded and the company set up its own repair units at its plants.

Russia: Holcim has agreed to sell its Russian business to its local management. When the transaction is completed, the business will continue to operate under different branding. Holcim says that it remains committed to supporting Holcim Russia’s employees and ensuring an orderly transfer for its customers. DGAP Corporate News has reported that Holcim deconsolidated the subsidiary in March 2022, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Holcim said “Holcim’s Board of Directors expresses its heartfelt concern about the tragic human suffering in the region, and is fully committed to supporting affected people, families and communities. The Board of Directors thanks all Holcim colleagues who are mobilising around the world alongside local NGOs to provide shelter, essential goods and medical supplies, as well as volunteering their time.”

This week’s Virtual Global CemPower Seminar included an assessment on how interventions in European power markets might affect efforts to decarbonise industry. The presentation by Thekla von Bülow of Aurora Energy Research outlined how different countries in the European Union (EU) were implementing the forthcoming electricity price cap on ‘inframarginal’ producers to 180Euro/MWh. Each of these different proposals will entail differing levels of structural change to the wholesale energy market. For example, the Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER) has recommended establishing a series of frameworks including a stronger focus on Contracts for Difference (CfD) schemes to promote renewable energy sources.

These changes are a consequence of the EU’s response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Gas prices surged and then pushed up other energy prices in turn to record levels. As this column covered in September 2022, the price of electricity shot up in the summer of 2022 whilst at the same time Russian gas imports ceased. Cembureau, the European Cement Association, called for urgent action to be taken to support cement production due to large increases in the cost of electricity. For example, in its latest overview of the German cement industry, the German Cement Works Association (VDZ) said that the sector has an electrical consumption of 30TWh/yr. Clearly energy policy is of great interest to the industry.

Since then, in late September 2022, Heidelberg Materials’ chief executive officer Dominik von Achten told Reuters that his company was preparing to shift production at its Germany-based plants to times and days when power prices are lower including at the weekend. However, this was dependent on negotiations with the unions. Von Achten also warned of plant closures being a possibility. Then, in November 2022, it emerged that Zementwerk Lübeck’s grinding plant in northern Germany had reportedly been only operating its grinding plant at night and at the weekend due to high electricity prices. Also in November 2022 European energy news provider Energate Messenger reported that Heidelberg Materials was preparing its cement plants in Germany with emergency backup power to keep critical services running in the case of electricity power cuts. One view from the outside came from equipment supplier FLSmidth’s third quarter results where it noted it had, “...started to see the first cases of budget constraints imposed by customers to counter the increasing energy cost. A high utilisation is still driving service activity in Europe, but some customers have put large capital investments on stand-by and we have experienced a slowdown in decision-making processes.” On the other hand it also pointed out that this trend is driving sales of products that helped reduce energy usage and/or switch to alternative fuels.

On the financial side, Holcim reiterated in its half-year report that, on the country, level the group uses a mixture of fixed price contracts, long-term power purchase agreements, on-site power generation projects and increased consumption of renewable energy at competitive prices to reduce the volatility from its energy bills. Both Cemex and Heidelberg Materials said similar things in their third quarter results conference calls. Cemex said that nearly 70% of its electricity requirements in Europe were fixed in 2022 with nearly 30% fixed for 2023. It went on to reveal that around 20% of its total costs for cement production in Europe derived from its electricity bill. Interestingly, it added that a higher proportion of its electricity costs in Germany were fixed than elsewhere in Europe, due to the use of a waste-to-electricity system owned by a third party that is fed with refuse-derived fuel (RDF), but that it was more exposed to floating fuel rates in Spain. Heidelberg Materials added that it supported energy price caps in both Germany and the EU whether they affected it directly or not.

So far it has been a mild start to winter in Europe. This may be about to change with colder weather forecast for December 2022. This will stress test the EU’s energy saving preparations and in turn it could force the plans of industrial users, such as the cement sector, to change. Some of the cement producers have commented on the financial implications of rising fuel costs but they have been quieter publicly about how they might react if domestic consumers are prioritised. Plant shutdowns throughout cold snaps are the obvious concern but it is unclear how likely this is yet. The variety of energy policies between fellow member states, their own supply situations and the differences between cement plants even in the same country suggest considerable variation in what might happen. If large numbers of cement plants do end shutting throughout any colder periods, then one observation is that it will look similar to winter peak shifting (i.e. closure) of plants in China. The more immediate worry in this scenario though is whether these plants actually reopen again.

The proceedings pack from the Virtual Global CemPower Seminar is available to buy now

Belarus: The government has extended Belarusian Cement Company's exemption from paying customs duties and value added tax (VAT) on its goods imports until 31 December 2023. PrimePress News has reported that the cement producer had previously been exempt from payments up until 30 September 2022.

Russia: The Ministry of Industry and Trade of the Russian government says that building materials are in high supply, but projected possible future shortages, beginning in 2024. The ministry named white cement as one product which it has adequately secured through new import sources. Russian construction remains dependent on imports, and the government says that it will look to further develop domestic production capacities of non-metallic materials from 2024.

Nigerian billionaire Aliko Dangote was spotted attending the inauguration ceremony of Kenyan President William Ruto earlier in September 2022. This is relevant because Dangote’s cement company previously announced plans in 2016 to build two 1.5Mt/yr plants in Kenya, near Nairobi and Mombasa respectively. They were intended to become operational by 2021. Unfortunately, Dangote himself allegedly described Kenya as being more corrupt than Nigeria to Kenyan broadcast journalist Jeff Koinange a few years later and nothing more happened. Back in 2014 Ruto visited Dangote Cement’s Obajana plant in Kogi state in Nigeria when the politician was the Deputy President of Kenya. Dangote’s attendance at the presidential inauguration this month suggests at the very least that his relationship with Ruto remains active. Maybe more news on those planned plants will follow.

Graph 1: Cement in Kenya, 2018 – June 2022. Source: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS).

The reason why the owner of Africa’s largest cement company might be interested in the Kenyan market can be seen in its latest cement production figures. Data from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) shows that production for the first half of 2022 grew by 20% year-on-year to 4.95Mt in the first half of 2022, from 4.12Mt in the same period in 2021. Cement production was broadly similar in 2018 and 2019 at around 6Mt. It then increased by 25% to 9.25Mt in 2021 from 7.41Mt in 2020. On a rolling annual basis, production picked up at the start of 2020 and has risen consistently since then each month, peaking at over 10Mt in May 2022.

However, the elections in August 2022 probably slowed this growth trend, despite being much more peaceful than those in 2007, although the KNBS is yet to release the data. Bamburi Cement said in its outlook for the second half of 2022 that it expected markets to recover after the ballot. The subsidiary of Holcim reported increasing turnover in the first half of 2022, due to mounting sales volumes and price rises, but its profit fell sharply. It blamed this on fuel and logistics inflation, growing clinker import costs as well as negative currency exchange effects.

That last point about imported clinker is worth noting given that a government report in late 2021 found that the country had a clinker shortage of up to 3.3Mt/yr. Yet, the KNBS data in recent years shows that cement production and consumption are broadly similar, suggesting that the shortfall in clinker is being imported. The report added that 59% of the imported clinker originated from Egypt, tariff free, due to a free trade agreement. Local producers were reported to have been operating at a 65% capacity utilisation rate. Egypt and the UAE accounted for most of the imported clinker followed by Saudi Arabia. An interview in the Standard newspaper at this time with Bamburi Cement’s managing director Seddiq Hassani revealed that, despite locally produced clinker being cheaper than imported clinker, some producers were reluctant to hand control of a key input material over to their local competitors. Other producers, predictably, were trying to persuade the government to raise the duty on imports of clinker from 10% to 25%. Tariff discussions have continued in 2022.

So far in 2022 the other big stories in the sector have included Bamburi Cement’s plans to build two solar power plants and a major repair to the kiln shell at East Africa Portland Cement’s (EAPCC) Athi River cement plant. The solar plants will be built next to Bamburi Cement’s integrated Mombasa plant and its Nairobi grinding plant. Once operational in 2023 they are anticipated to supply up to 40% of the cement producer’s total power supply. Devki Group, the owner of National Cement, also announced plans in August 2022 to set up a wind farm near Mombasa. However, this seems more like an attempt to diversify the group into electricity production rather than to supply its own plant near Nairobi. EAPCC’s upgrade project has completed this week after about a month and half of work. It is intended to increase the plant’s cement production by 50%.

Cement production started in rise in 2020 but the Covid-19 pandemic may have constrained this. Production (and consumption) then jumped up in 2021 and looks set to do similar in 2022 bar a possible blip from the elections in August 2022. This is despite the global market issues arising from the end of Covid-19 and the war in Ukraine. These may be uncertain times but the fundamentals for the Kenyan cement market look positive despite rising end prices. Unsurprisingly, it looks likely that Dangote Cement remains keen to extend its business to Kenya.

Armenia: The tariff on cement imports has been reduced by 35% to US$22/t, from US$34/t previously, following changes to import rules by the government. Imports of clinker will be subject to no tariffs.

News.am has reported that seven-month cement imports to Armenia rose by 1.7% year-on-year in the period up to 31 August 2022, to 84.7Mt from 83Mt. The cause of the growth is variously the cancellation of an income tax refund on mortgages from 1 July 2022, the increased immigration of Russian citizens into Armenia and the growth of tourism.

Australia: James Hardie recorded sales of US$1bn in the first quarter of its 2023 financial year, up by 19% year-on-year from US$843m in the first quarter of its 2022 financial year. Its net profit was US$163m, up by 34% from US$121m. The group increased its North America fibre cement board sales by 28% to US$740m, its Asia Pacific fibre cement board sales by 9% to US$140m and its Europe building products sales by 7% to US$112. James Hardie launched its new European subsidiary James Hardie Fiber Cement Europe during the quarter.

James Hardie lowered its full-year adjusted net profit forecast to US$730 – 780m from US$740 – 820m. Interim chief executive officer Harold Wiens said "The current calendar year has seen the macro-economic environment change around us quite significantly, with unprecedented levels of inflation, global supply chain disruptions and a war in Europe. The current macro-economic environment is not only creating uncertainty for the housing markets in all three regions we do business in, but it is also putting pressure on our fiscal year 2023 financial results due to increased input and freight costs. That said, we are confident we will be able to deliver growth above market and strong returns in fiscal year 2023, and that is reflected in our updated guidance we provided today, which at its midpoint represents 22% growth in adjusted net income versus the prior year."

Philippines: Eagle Cement’s sales rose by 24% year-on-year to US$246m in the first half of its 2023 financial year from US$199m a year earlier. Its income was US$53.4m, down by 20% year-on-year from US$66.6m. Eagle Cement attributed the decline to cost impacts resulting from the Russian invasion of Ukraine and bottlenecks in global supply chains. Its operating expenses were US$26.1m, up by 35% year-on-year.

India: India imported 2.03Mt of coal from Russia in July 2022, making the widely sanctioned nation its third largest source of coal that month. The figure represents a 10% month-on-month increase from 1.85Mt-worth of Russian coal imports in June 2022. The Economic Times newspaper has reported that the single largest importer of thermal coal in July 2022 was UltraTech Cement, with 170,000t.