Displaying items by tag: construction

The second quarter of 2025 saw Russian GDP growth slow to 1.1% year-on-year, with a revised full-year growth forecast of 0.9%.¹ An economy bulked up on injections of military spending (budgeted at 33% of GDP in 2025)² since the invasion of Ukraine may slowly be keeling over. Faced with this eventuality, the Russian cement industry will likely be reviewing strategies not to be dragged down with the rest of the economy.

Prior to the release of the latest economic data, Russian construction had been forecast to grow at a CAGR of 2.5% in 2026 – 2029. Drivers included anticipated investments in oil and gas, transport, airports and renewable energy.

Purely in cement terms, the data no longer appear to corroborate this outlook. Market leader Cemros expects total domestic demand to drop from 67Mt in 2024, by 10 – 15% year-on-year, to 57 – 60.3Mt in 2025. In the first half of the year, Russia consumed 28.4Mt of cement, just 4% above production volumes of 27.2Mt in the same period. Cemros cited ‘declining cement consumption’ to account for its upcoming instigation of a four-day working week at its plants across Russia from October 2025.

On 12 August 2025, Cemros spoke out about a threat to the interests of the domestic industry: increased imports from Belarus. It said that Belarus’ three-plant industry is supplying Russia with cement at a rate equivalent to the combined production volumes of two-to-three cement plants. Time to cap them, it told the government, suggesting a ceiling of 1.5Mt/yr.
The producer may have received a shock on 18 August 2025, when Belarus-based Krasnoselskstroymaterialy announced an upcoming US$100m upgrade to its 700,000t/yr Vaŭkavysk cement plant in Grobno Oblast, Belarus.

By that time, the Russian cement association, Soyuzcement, had already called for an anti-dumping investigation into all cement imports. It expects that import volumes of 3.74Mt in 2024 may rise to 5Mt/yr ‘in the near-term future.’

Lingering behind these discussions is the fact of high operating costs, partly precipitated by Russia’s continuing burden of international sanctions.

Here, the cement sector’s hopes are riding on a very particular marketing campaign: that of President Vladimir Putin on the global diplomatic circuit. He must sell his war (or peace on his terms) in a way that fends off increased international sanctions or support for Ukraine. Existing sanctions were on show at the Alaska Summit in Anchorage, US, on 15 August 2025, where the Russian leader made his pitch to US President Donald Trump – including a request for de-sanctioning, alongside various proposed punishment measures against Ukraine. Before travelling back to Moscow, the Russian delegation reportedly had to offer to pay cash for aeroplane fuel.³

Though President Trump did not secure a ceasefire, he nonetheless held back from making good on threatened new sanctions, and rated the Alaska Summit ‘10/10.’⁴ Putin might be equally pleased with the inconclusive outcome as precisely the goal of all his obfuscations. For Russia’s cement producers, costs won’t suddenly rise, but nor will they come down any time soon.

Far from sitting idly by, the industry is seeking new ways to actualise the value of its product. On 20 August 2025, Soyuzcement hosted a meeting of nine producers and four retail chains to strategise ways to increase sales of bagged cement. It will be subject to mandatory digital labelling from 1 October 2025. Discussions included the possibility of batch labelling of bags on the pallet for ease of scanning at retail outlets.

For now, producers’ online media spaces give the impression of work continuing as usual. On 18 August 2025, Cemros announced a US$186,000 renovation of buildings at its Mikhailovsk building materials plant in Volgograd Oblast.

The cement business in Russia is big, established and diffuse. Transformation has been its defining feature in the 33 years since the fall of the USSR, including in the relatively stable latter decades of that period. Should macroeconomic or geopolitical events overtake it once again, we can expect some shapeshifting – but also survival.

References

1. Reuters, ‘Russia's GDP growth slows to 1.1% in Q2, says Rosstat,’ 13 August 2025, www.reuters.com/markets/europe/russias-gdp-growth-slows-11-q2-says-rosstat-2025-08-13/

2. Global Data, ‘Russia Construction Market Size,’ 30 June 2025, www.globaldata.com/store/report/russia-construction-market-analysis/

3. Spiegel, ‘Russen boten Rubio zufolge Barzahlung für Betankung ihrer Flugzeuge an,’ 18 August 2025, www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/trump-putin-gipfel-russen-boten-offensichtlich-barzahlung-fuer-betankung-ihrer-flugzeuge-an-a-fdd9303c-546a-43aa-89dd-4f746b8e9df3

4. Focus, ‘Jäger deutlich: "Putin verkauft Trump eine Illusion - und hat ihn jetzt in der Hand",’ 16 August 2025, www.focus.de/politik/ausland/jaeger-putin-braucht-trump-nicht-zu-fuerchten-er-hat-trump-jetzt-in-der-hand_67785013-a14b-485c-9a4a-51755ec483fa.html

Afghanistan: The Ministry of Mines and Petroleum announced the start of work on five cement plants in Kandahar, Herat, Parwan, Jawzjan and Logar with a total investment of US$750m, according to Ariana News. Some of these facilities are expected to start production later in 2025 or early 2026. Once operational, these plants will enable the country to produce 15,000t/day of cement, raising national output to 5.5Mt/yr and potentially allowing for export to nearby countries. The news outlet reported that currently 90% of the cement available domestically is imported.

Libya: The Libya Africa Investment Portfolio (LAIP) is continuing preparations for the launch of the Misrata cement plant, with the technical committee appointed by the LAIP holding its 10th meeting, according to the Libyan Express. The committee discussed coordination with the National Oil Corporation for the supply of natural gas and heavy fuel oil to the plant and with the General Electricity Company of Libya for the supply of electricity for the plant’s operations. The committee also addressed infrastructure with the Ministry of Transport, regarding the construction of a 10km paved road from the plant to the national road network. China-based Sinoma Wuhan will be the primary contractor for the construction of the plant.

US: The American Cement Association expects that data centres will need 1Mt of cement by 2028 as investment in artifical intelligence technology rises. 

Data centres are projected to consume 247,000t of cement in 2025 and 860,000t by 2027. There were 5426 operational AI data centres in the US at the end of March 2025, with the number reportedly expected to exceed 6000 by 2027. However, the association warned that there could be challenges in meeting this demand, such as regulatory hurdles and labour shortages.

UK: Holcim UK has completed all civil engineering works at its new Tilbury Cement Terminal on the River Thames, marking the transition to structural and mechanical installation.

The three-year project has now progressed beyond excavation, foundations, utilities and site roads. Wright Brothers Industrial Services will lead the next phase, installing materials handling and processing systems. Collinson Construction is installing the storage hall superstructure, while Dome Technology begins work on the dome silo, which will hold up to 30,000t of cement.

Japan: Mitsubishi UBE Cement’s joint project with the city of Kitakyushu to pilot carbon recycled materials in public infrastructure has been selected for the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry’s 2024 grant programme.

Centred around the producer’s Kyushu plant in Kurosaki, Kitakyushu, the project will recycle CO₂ and waste cement from local sources for use in municipal construction. Mitsubishi UBE Cement said it aims to establish a model for resource circulation that can be expanded nationwide.

India: ACC Chair Karan Adani says that he expects the cement industry to benefit from the an anticipated US$2.2tn in new public infrastructure spending between 2025 and 2030.

Press Trust of India News has reported that Adani said "ACC crossed the 100Mt/yr cement capacity milestone in April 2025, propelling us closer to our ambitious 140Mt/yr target by the 2028 financial year." The company’s capacity corresponds to 15% of an all-India installed capacity of 686Mt/yr.

Poland: The Office of Competition and Consumer Protection (UOKiK) has launched an investigation into Cement Ożarów, Cemex Polska, Dyckerhoff Polska, Góradżdże Cement, Górażdże Beton and Holcim Polska over potential cement cartelisation. The office has not stated the exact triggers of such an investigation at this time.

ISB News has reported that UOKiK previously discovered an 11-year-long conspiracy to divide the market and fix prices between seven companies in 2009.

UOKiK President Tomasz Chróstny said "The return of a cartel would be particularly outrageous, considering that cement is one of the basic construction materials, necessary for the development of housing, road infrastructure and the entire economy."

If found to have been party to any agreement restricting competition, companies can expect penalties as high as 10% of turnover.

Japan: Domestic cement sales in April 2025 fell by 5% year-on-year to 2.6Mt, according to the Japan Cement Association. This marked the 32nd consecutive monthly decline, attributed to reduced construction hours under overtime restrictions. The Tohoku and Chugoku regions recorded the steepest falls, with labour shortages and rising construction costs driving the decline in Chugoku. Domestic demand has been in decline for six consecutive years, and continues to decline due to a combination of factors including the chronic labour shortage at construction sites, rising construction costs and the longer construction period due to the introduction of a full two-day weekend system at construction sites in recent years.

Jordan: Exports to Syria reached record levels on 2 June 2025, with 1700 trucks crossing the Jaber border, more than double the usual daily average, according to Amman Chamber of Commerce president Khalil Haj Tawfiq.

Haj Tawfiq said “Cement was the primary export, marking a significant boost in construction-related trade,” adding that “This level of export activity is unprecedented.”

Cement reportedly accounted for more than 10,654 truckloads. Haj Tawfiq attributed the rise in exports to Syria to increased trade activity ahead of Eid Al Adha and renewed economic cooperation between the two countries, particularly around reconstruction efforts.