Displaying items by tag: China

The European Union (EU) Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) looked like it might be about to hit Euro40/t this week. It still might. You can blame it on the current cold front bringing snow to much of Northern Europe and the bedding into of the fourth phase of the ETS that started in January 2021. In early 2020 analysts were generally predicting an average price of around Euro30/t by 2030 bolstered by volatility in the price due to the start of the coronavirus pandemic. Yet the price recovered and so did the European Commission’s resolve to push through its European Green Deal. By mid-December 2020 the price had shot past Euro30/t and analysts were forecasting average prices of well over Euro50/t by 2030. Depending on one’s disposition this is the rate at which either serious decarbonisation attempts will begin to be viable for commercial companies, or the point at which more plants simply close.

Figure 1: European Union Emissions Trading System carbon market price in Euros (European Union Allowance), February 2020 – February 2021. Source: Sandbag.

One group which is well aware of the EU ETS and its consequences upon the cement industry is Cembureau, the European cement association. Some of its current lobbying efforts have been directed at trying to shape how the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanisms (CBAM) will appear in legislation proposals in June 2021. Its argument boils down to protecting its members from carbon leakage both in and out of the EU’s borders and maintaining free allocation until 2030 to ease the transition to a lower carbon economy. The former should find common ground. However, calls for a CO₂ charge exemption for EU exporters may perplex environmentalists, who might wonder how this could possibly encourage third party countries to introduce their own carbon pricing schemes. The latter is clearly pragmatism for an industry saying that it is facing change at a pace that may be too rapid for it to cope with. Concrete products do carry sustainability advantages over other building materials. Wiping out swathes of the region’s production base, simply because one knows exactly how much CO₂ they emit compared to rival building materials that one doesn’t, may not help the EU reach its climate commitments by 2050. As if to underline this fear, another European clinker line was earmarked for closure this week when Lafarge France announced the planned conversion of the Contes cement plant into a terminal.

Figure 2: Estimate of global cement production in 2018 by region. Source: Cembureau.

Figure 2 above puts the situation into a global perspective, showing that Cembureau’s members were responsible for below 7% of cement production in 2018. China produced an estimated 55% of global cement production in the same year. In terms of overall CO₂ emissions across all sources, the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimated that China produced 30% of CO₂ emissions in 2018.

It seems odd then that the introduction of an interim ETS in China at the start of February 2021 didn’t receive more global news coverage. The new scheme covers 2225 power companies across the country. It follows pilot regional schemes that have run since 2011, covering seven provinces and cities including Beijing, Shanghai and Guangdong. Previously, the country’s largest local carbon market, the China Emissions Exchange (Guangzhou), was based in Guangdong province and it included power generation, cement, steel, and petrochemical sectors. State news agency Xinhua reports that this scheme reduced carbon emissions from these industries by 12% from 2013 to 2019. The new national ETS is expected to include cement and other industries at a later stage.

Commentators in the European press have pointed out that the Chinese national ETS is actually planning to make an effort on transparency and to force companies to publish their pollution data publicly. Yet, they’ve also said that the data may be inaccurate anyway, echoing the usual Western fears about Chinese figures. Other concerns include the method of giving out pollution permits rather than allocating them by auction as in other cap and trade systems, which could reduce the incentive to reduce emissions. It’s also worth pointing out that carbon was priced at US$6/t under the Chinese system compared to around US$35/t in the EU and US$17/t in California, US at the end of 2020. At this price it seems unlikely that the Chinese national ETS will encourage much change without other measures.

The EU and Chinese ETS are at different stages but the differences in scale are stark. When or if the Chinese one goes national across those eight core industries it will likely leapfrog over the EU ETS and become the world’s largest with an estimated 13,235MtCO₂e under its purview. By contrast, the EU ETS manages 1816MtC0₂e according to World Bank data. The kind of dilemmas Cembureau and others are tackling with the EU ETS such as carbon leakage and how fast to tighten the system against heavy emitters are illustrative to other schemes in China and elsewhere.

Denmark: FLSmidth’s group net sales fell by 20% year-on-year to Euro2.21bn in 2020 from Euro2.78bn in 2019. Its earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) before special non-recurring items fell by 44% to Euro152m from Euro270m. Net profit was Euro27.6m, down by 74% from Euro104m.

The group’s cement business recorded net sales of Euro783m, down by 31% from Euro1.14bn, and an EBITA loss of Euro15.9m, compared to a gain of Euro65.3m in 2019. It said that the cement business is not expected to be EBITA positive in 2021 due to continued cement reshaping costs. However, order intake for the cement division improved year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2020 due to a Euro101m engineering, procurement and supervision contract for a cement plant project in Ethiopia.

Chair Vagn Ove Sørensen and chief executive officer Thomas Schulz said, “The cement market is faced with on-going overcapacity and we see no short-term to medium-term recovery. Thus, we continue activities to reshape our cement business. Large economic stimulus programmes, combined with an increasing focus on lower-carbon cement, will create good opportunities in the medium- to long-term but the timing and extent of an overall rebound in the cement market remain uncertain. It is, however, clear that the cement industry will need substantial investments to meet the emissions reduction targets set by a growing number of cement producers as well as the recent commitments to carbon neutrality made by the Global Cement and Concrete Association (GCCA) and the European Cement Association. Based on the need to decarbonise, we foresee a multi-commodity cement industry in the future, utilising a range of cement production processes and a variety of raw materials. As the industry’s leading and most innovative premium supplier with strong process know-how, we are strongly positioned to benefit from this development.”

In further comments about cement industry trends the company noted that, “Following the shutdown of about 20% of the world’s cement plants outside of China in April 2020, the share of cement plants in operation has since climbed back up above 95% at year-end. However, many plants continue to run at reduced capacity and sites remain difficult to access due to restrictions and preventative measurements taken by authorities and plant operators.”

Italy: Cementir Holding recorded revenues from sales and services of Euro1.22bn in 2020, up by 1% year-on-year from Euro1.21bn in 2019. Cement and clinker volumes rose by 13% to 10.7Mt from 9.49Mt. Volumes registered the sharpest increase in Turkey, of 39%. Ready-mixed concrete (RMX) volumes grew by 7.8% to 4.4Mm³ from 4.1Mm³. The company maintained its 2019 earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) levels of Euro264m. It said that an improvement in performance in Turkey, Denmark, Egypt, China and Sweden balanced out negative effects on earnings in Belgium, US and Malaysia.

Chair and chief executive officer Francesco Caltagirone said, “In 2020, despite the serious pandemic, the group showed significant resilience with a 13% increase in cement volumes sold and revenue reaching the historical record. On a recurring basis, EBITDA increased by 2%, EBIT was up by 4% and yearly cash generation was Euro119m."

Under Plan 2021 – 2023 Industrial Plan, the company says that it envisages sales growth of 20% to Euro1.47bn and EBITDA growth of 29% to Euro340bn in 2023 compared to 2020 figures. It said that digitalisation investments begun in 2019 will contribute an expected Euro15m to EBITDA in 2023. As part of its sustainability commitments it has set a CO₂ emissions reduction target of around 30% by 2030, with emissions below 500kg/t of grey cement. However, it said that under the future European Taxonomy criteria white cement emissions are not included.

The group is planning to invest around Euro107m from 2021 to 2023 on sustainability and digitalisation. This includes a the construction of a new calcination plant in Denmark for the production of its Futurecem product and, the installation of wind turbines with an installed capacity of 8.4MW. It is also planning to increase the alternative fuels substitution rate at its integrated Gaurain plant in Belgian to 80% from 40% and invest in the use of natural gas and biogas in some of its plants.

China: The China Cement Association has asked that regional associations and producers respect competition laws. It follows the outcome of a State Market Supervision Administration investigation into the behaviour of certain provincial cement associations and six cement companies. The association has called for a thoroughgoing removal of collusive behaviours alongside continued cement overcapacity reduction.

Oman: Raysut Cement has held a groundbreaking ceremony for a new 9MW waste heat recovery (WHR) unit at its Salalah cement plant. The Times of Oman newspaper has reported that China-based Sinoma Overseas Development will undertake the engineering, procurement and construction work on the project.

The producer said that the installation “Will contribute significantly to our ambitious targets such as reducing power consumption by 25 - 30%, reducing CO₂ emissions and above all reducing in water consumption by more than 50%.”

Cement imports were one of the themes in this week’s news, with stories on the topic from South Africa and Ukraine. The former concerned the latest chapter in that industry’s saga on slowing down imports. The International Trade Administration Commission (ITAC) has started a review on tariffs imposed on cement from Pakistan that were introduced in 2015.

Local producers in South Africa have experienced mixed fortunes since 2015, such as PPC and AfriSam’s failed merger attempt or the introduction of a local carbon tax, and were starting to complain again about imports even before the effects of coronavirus in 2020. This led the Concrete Institute to lobby ITAC in 2019 about rising imports from other nations, principally Vietnam and China.

Back in 2013 cement imports from Pakistan to South Africa were 1.1Mt. This represented the vast majority of all imports to the country. Tariffs of 14 – 77% were imposed on Pakistan-based exporters in mid-2015, initially for six months, but this was then extended. Roughly a year later in mid-to-late 2016, Sephaku Holdings said that imports of cement had ‘significantly’ declined on a year-on-year basis, particularly from Pakistan. By the end of June 2016 approximately 0.16Mt had been imported compared to 0.5Mt in the previous period. However, it noted that 75% of the volume was from China. Since then imports started to creep up. Cement imports reportedly rose by 84% year-on-year in 2018 and then by 11% in 2019. Data from construction industry data company Industry Insight suggests that Vietnam accounted for 70% or 0.47Mt of the 0.68Mt of cement imported into South Africa in the first nine months of 2020. The remaining 30% or 0.20Mt came from Pakistan. In this kind of environment it seems unlikely that ITAC will do anything other than extend tariffs.

Meanwhile in the northern hemisphere, in Ukraine this week a court in Kiev dismissed a challenge by the Belarusian Cement Company to remove cement import tariffs from Russia, Belarus and Moldova that were introduced in mid-2019 for five years. Notably, a law firm representing Dyckerhoff Cement Ukraine, HeidelbergCement Ukraine, Ivano-Frankivsk Ukraine and CRH subsidiary Podilsky Cement commented favourably upon the court’s decision to uphold tariffs. These producers form UKRCEMENT, the association of cement producers of Ukraine. However, the association doesn’t include Russia-based Eurocement, which operates Ukraine’s largest cement plant at Balakleya. Relations have been poor between Russia and Ukraine since a war between the countries that started in 2014. So any trade tariffs implemented upon Russia and/or Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) members will inevitably carry the whiff of geopolitics. Yet, in Ukraine’s defence, it also started an anti-dumping investigation into cement imports from Turkey in September 2020. Nationalism may be relevant but let’s not discount hard-nosed economics just yet.

Turkey’s involvement in Ukraine leads to last week’s presentation at Global Cement Live by Sylvie Doutres, DSG Consultants on cement and clinker trade in and out of the Mediterranean region. Readers can watch the presentation here but the headline story here was the trend of reducing exports away from southern European countries such as Spain, Italy and Greece, to greater exports from North African countries and Turkey over the last decade. Turkey particularly has pushed its share of exports even more in 2020 despite (or perhaps because of) a tough domestic market. The general trend here away from southern Europe has been blamed on European Union-based (EU) producers becoming less competitive often against newer plants in nearby countries.

Battles between producers and government tariff policies are a perennial feature of any market in commodities such as cement. The ebb and flow of import and export markets cover many factors including production costs, distribution networks, tariff structures and more. Distinctive features of cement trading, for example, are the high cost of transporting heavy building materials over land and the world’s chronic cement production overcapacity. In the EU’s case one reason that often gets blamed is the emissions trading system (EU ETS) and the mounting cost it is imposing upon cement production. For example, today’s story that Holcim España wants to convert its integrated Jerez plant into a grinding unit has been blamed on falling exports and a reduction in ETS credits. It is noteworthy then that the EU ETS rate breached the Euro30/t level in December 2020. This may be good news for the sustainability lobby but the exodus of exports away from Southern Europe tells its own story. What form the EU ETS carbon border adjustment mechanism takes as part of the EU Green Deal will be watched closely by producers both inside and outside the EU.

Global Cement Live continues on 21 January 2021 with Kevin Rudd, Independent Cement Consultants, presenting 'Independent or third party factory acceptance testing of major cement plant equipment and critical spare parts and the challenges of Covid’

China: Seven of Huaxin Cement’s plants have been selected on a national energy efficiency list released by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration of Market Regulation. The list contains energy efficiency ‘leaders’ from energy intensive industries in 2020. It includes 28 cement companies. Huaxin Cement’s plants were selected in Xinyang, Yangxin, Zhaotong, Zhuzhou, Xigaze, Wuxue and Tibet factory. Of these the Xinyang plant had the lowest energy intensity of clinker production of all the cement producers on the list.

China: Sinoma (CNBM) International Engineering’s value of new projects grew by 9% year-on-year to US$5.3bn in 2020. Most of these projects came from growth in its construction business segment. However, new project value from its equipment manufacturing business fell by 5% to US$629m. By region, domestic new project value decreased by 3% to US$2.1bn but overseas new project value rose by 19% to US$3.2bn. The engineering company and member of CNBM group also reported that its US$480m project to build a 5000t/day clinker production line in Zambia for Central African Cement remains in the financing stage. The project was originally announced in late 2018.

China: Huaxin Cement has forecast a 9 -14% year-on-year fall in full-year net profit in 2020, of up to US$140m. It said that it recorded a net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring gains and losses of around US$980m in 2019.

The company said, “The main reason for 2020 performance decline is the hit of Covid-19 in the first half of this year and vast flood disaster along Yangtze River in July 2020. The sales volume of main products were hugely affected and the price fell to some extent, leading to the reduction in the operating revenue.”

Vietnam: Vietnamese cement export growth is forecast to slow in 2021. The Viet Nam News newspaper has reported on research by SSI Research that expected exports to remain stable due to high infrastructure spending in China, but that growth is unlikely due to the full recovery of Chinese domestic cement supply in 2020. SSI Research forecasts a total 2021 cement and clinker sales growth of 2% year-on-year to 104Mt from 102Mt. It predicts a 5% - 7% increase in domestic sales. The country’s installed cement production capacity is due to rise by 7% or 7Mt in early 2021.