Displaying items by tag: China

Today's report that cement producers from Taiwan are preparing for new Chinese NOx regulations is yet another reaction to several 'seismic' shifts of government-led change rocking the industry in China. These have included the closure of old, inefficient capacity and significant implementation of waste-heat recovery (WHR) systems. Last week's launch of the Guangdong Emissions Trading Scheme (GETS) is one more.

As reported by Reuters Point Carbon, GETS involves four cement plants from the start and it is the largest of seven such provincial schemes. It is as big and bold as the manufacturing hub that it covers. It includes over 800 manufacturing sites and will regulate the emissions from 42% of all power consumed in Guangdong and 63% of all its industrial emissions. It will be the fifth biggest ETS in the world after those in the EU, Australia, California and South Korea.

While GETS is large, the rate that it will be implemented will be more restrained. There will be three years of testing (2012-2015), an 'improvement period' (2016- 2020) and a proper market from 2020. The scheme's progress will be watched closely - its success or failure could determine the shape of emissions trading schemes (ETS) across China and the rest of Asia.

While the aims of ETS are laudable, they have met with 'mixed' reviews in other parts of the world. In Australia in 2011, there were dire warnings of the potential for job-losses and carbon-leakage, with China itself identified as a probable destination for both.

In Europe there is now a strong claim that the EU-ETS has been ineffective, with carbon prices slumping to under Euro10/credit (~US$13/credit), less than a quarter of projected levels for 2012. In the midst of the downturn Ireland's CRH 'earned' millions of Euros in unused credits. Security has also been a problem for the EU-ETS.

Even GETS, less than a month old, has drawn criticism. Unnamed commentators have suggested that the higher-than-expected prices, US$9.50/credit, (only slightly lower than in Europe), already look like the result of collusion in the market.

With all of these concerns, the immediate demand from the cement producers, China Resources Cement, Sinoma, Taipai and Yangchun Hailuo, looks a little strange. However, local media reports that there are advantages to be gained by buying early. All of the four producers have to buy credits for cement plant projects they are currently working on. They are gambling on the fact that carbon prices can only rise - something that is not expected by analysts.

In addition the producers can gain valuable experience of the scheme before it has to be used 'in anger,' which may give them an operational advantage over others. They also know that, unlike in other parts of the world, the government will not backtrack on its decision. Recent NOx regulations, closure of older capacity and implementation of WHR have all been imposed (or are being imposed) from above. They know that it is better to jump into the deep end than to be pushed.

Cement industry results from China have all told an alarming story this week: profits for the first half of 2012 look set to fall by more than 50% year-on-year.

China Resources Cement Holdings warned that its first-half earnings were down sharply. China National Materials Co. Ltd. (Sinoma), the cement equipment and engineering services provider, and Gansu Qilianshan Cement, a small Shanghai-listed cement producer, have both forecast similar drops. Sinoma blamed its drop in profit partly on an overseas project but 'interestingly' no further information was released detailing which project.

Previous to this in June 2012 Anhui Conch Cement warned that its net profit would fall by more than 50% due to weak demand and falling product prices. In May 2012 China National Building Material Co Ltd (CNBM) reported that its net profit for the first quarter of 2012 was down by 45% year-on-year. In April 2012 Jidong Cement reported an increase in its net loss for the first quarter and a year-on-year revenue drop of 14%.

Each of the Chinese big players in the cement industry have issued profit warnings of a similar scale suggesting that the Chinese market faces a uniform downturn or that a slowdown is being centrally managed. Official signs that the Chinese industry faced a slowdown emerged in March 2012 when the national growth target was lowered, analysts' predictions were released forecasting weakened profits for the nation's main producers and government officials admitted that overcapacity loomed within five years.

According to OneStone Research data on the Chinese market in 2010 CNBM, Anhui Conch, Jidong and Sinoma represented over 20% of Chinese capacity. To give these figures some perspective, in 2011 CNBM's profit was US$1.7bn. Holcim's operating profit for the same period was US$2bn and Lafarge's operating income was US$2.74bn. Even halved, CNBM's profit is a massive figure for a company with less of an international presence than the European multinationals.

Friday saw the news that many have long suspected: China is producing too much cement. Liu Ming, an official with the department of industry within the National Development and Reform Commission, announced that China faces national overcapacity in the next five years.

For anyone used to reading the permanently good news from China's cement industry this is a massive jolt. The natural reaction to dealing with industrial news from a command-style economy is to assume that everything is 'airbrushed'. This then demands the question: how much trouble is the Chinese cement industry really in?

Despite persistent rumours querying how long China's unparallelled growth could last, official responses have only appeared in the last two months. First the environment ministry announced stricter rules regarding nitrogen oxide emissions from cement plants in February 2012. Commentators suggested that the move could wipe out a third of the industry's profits. Shortly afterwards FLSmidth, entered the Chinese environmental control technology market.

In early March 2012 Premier Wen Jiabao lowered China's growth target for 2012, signalling public political acceptance of an inevitable economic 'soft landing'. Then in late March 2012 analysts' reports emerged predicting that each of China's main producers would suffer weakened profits in 2012. Only CNBM, China's biggest producer, appears to have bucked this trend. It announced that it expected its net profit to jump more than 100% compared to 2011. However the general uncertainty regarding statistics from China throws doubt on how realistic this forecast may be.

Yet before we give up hope it's worth remembering that opportunity abounds in a market as gargantuan as China. The rest of 2012 will be an interesting period for the Chinese cement industry.