Displaying items by tag: Export

There were two telling stories from Vietnam this week that show the level to which demand has been overestimated in the centrally-planned cement sector. Firstly, the country reported that exports in the period between January and July 2014 increased by nearly a quarter year-on-year to 13.1Mt. Secondly, the Prime Minister announced that another five cement plant projects were to be axed, following nine others that bit the dust in 2013.

All this is against a backdrop of chronic lower-than-expected domestic cement demand. When we look at the figures, it’s not hard to see that domestic consumers have had trouble consuming all the cement produced in Vietnam. The government forecast for cement production in 2015 is in the region of 75 - 76Mt. If this was spread evenly between Vietnam’s 88.8m people, each person would have to consume ~850kg of cement. That’s possible but it is quite a lot for a lower middle income economy. However, separate reports state that a 10% rise in domestic sales on 2013 levels would lead to just 60Mt of domestic cement sales in 2015. This equates to a more realistic 675kg/capita.

These figures leave a massive and increasing amount of cement for export. Read again that figure from the first seven months of 2014 – 13.1Mt – Roughly the capacity of South Africa (~12.5Mt/yr), Tunisia (12.9Mt/yr) of Colombia (12.9Mt/yr)! Also, while cement exports volumes were up by nearly a quarter, the value of those same exports rose by only 20%. This indicates a drop in export prices and represents additional pressure to halt capacity expansion.

Against a backdrop of 90Mt/yr expected capacity in 2015 and falling export prices, the latest cement project cull certainly makes sense but even in a best-case scenario the country is looking at a capacity utilisation rate of just 66 - 67%. Some cement plant project owners have even found themselves trapped by the situation. Having indebted themselves on the promise of ever-increasing cement demand, they now face the prospect of throwing good money after bad, continuing to build and operate just to service debts. This is a very unenviable position indeed. The lifting of trade restrictions within the ASEAN Community on 1 January 2015 might help export volumes, but might also also drive prices down further.

Culling new cement plant projects is one thing, but could the next step be more drastic? North of the border, China is gradually reducing its overcapacity by removing older and less efficient capacity. Perhaps Vietnam would do well to follow suit.

A recent BBC television documentary explained the rise of low-cost airlines in the UK in the early 1990s. With news of an independent cement grinding plant in western France doing the rounds this week, we ask could the same revolution happen in the cement industry?

Back in the early 1990s following deregulation in the European aviation industry, smaller airlines took the opportunity to try a different model to the larger national carriers. Taking cost-cutting ideas from the US-based Southwest Airlines (deregulation had occurred earlier in the US) new companies like Ryanair and EasyJet burst into the short haul market, seizing market share and changing people's attitudes to air travel. For example, low to medium income males going on a 'British Gentlemen' stag (bachelor) party to a European destination such as Ayia Napa or Riga would have been unthinkable before the mid-1990s.

Flying passengers around Europe and producing cement are clearly radically different businesses. However, Kercim Cements' objective to produce 600,000t of cement and take a 10% share of the local market near Saint-Nazaire in Loire-Atlantique department of France stands out. With the European cement industry in decline and endless stories about cement exporting nations flooding developing markets, taking a grinding-led business model suddenly sounds considerably more competitive.

In addition, an independent company importing clinker from non-EU countries might also benefit from not being subject to quota allocations of CO₂. This issue was raised from a different angle earlier in 2013, when Irish company Ecocem complained about large cement producers making profits from the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) despite reduced production.

Thinking around grinding as the model for an industry step-change, one of the presenters at the Global CemTrader conference in May 2013 was Moisés Nunez of Cemengal. He spoke about 'Plug&Grind', his company's low-cost modular grinding plant technology. Essentially, the Spanish company can fit a grinding station into 15 shipping containers and assemble the grinding unit wherever the client can transport it to. Once again, this sounds perfect for a global cement industry that is making too much clinker.

As this column has reported previously, Africa is the ideal target for a low-cost grinding-led business model given its overall high level of demand for cement. Any cement business near the coast has been under intense competition from imports. So much so, that former PPC (Portland Pretoria Cement) head Paul Stuiver stated that any African facility built within 200km of a port was at risk. Could French and other EU-based coastal cement plants also be at risk? With the cost of production and transport on the rise, the low-cost grinding model may even work in Europe. The beauty of the Cemengal system is that it is mobile so that it can follow market opportunity.

As the Economist recently pointed out in a review of the global cement industry, it is an industry dominated by a small number of companies. High cost of entry, high transport costs by road and other factors mean that this is unlikely to change anytime soon. Yet, exports by sea provide some level of increased competition. Both of the grinding projects mentioned above rely on this fact. Let's wait and see what happens.

The news this week that Vietnam's state-owned cement producer, Vicem, has made a first half profit 75% larger than that of the first half of 2011 is a surprising statistic from a country with so much spare cement.

The country has spent most of the past decade building cement plant after cement plant. According to research conducted for the April 2012 issue of Global Cement Magazine, Vietnam now has a cement capacity of over 70Mt/yr! Vicem says that it sold 9.7Mt of cement in the first six months of 2012 and reports that this level represents 44% of its intended production for the year. This makes its 2012 cement production target somewhere in the region of 22Mt.

How much of the non-Vicem cement capacity is being utilised in Vietnam is unknown, but it is certainly too much for Vietnam's current needs. When the country's own government owned cement producer announces that it expects to have 6Mt of cement stockpiled by the end of 2012 (enough to supply the UK for the whole of 2013), it is clear that there is a serious cement surplus. Oversupply has not been met by demand, cement prices are depressed and attempts to export, to countries both near and far, are on the up.

To help curb the problem, one cement plant project has been halted in the past week. The Kinh Bac City Development Share Holding Corp (KBC) has received permission from its state to not build its planned 5Mt/yr plant.

Halting new projects is one way for the country to reduce its overcapacity, but in the short term the industry is looking at exports. While its lengthly coastline makes getting cement to ports for export fairly straightforward, Vietnam is badly located to exploit its current situation in this way. It's proximity to China, which itself is starting to face an oversupply scenario despite its efficiency gains, leaves Vietnam at a cost disadvantage.

As well as there being China on Vietnam's doorstep, many other countries in the region, (Indonesia, Malaysia, Japan, South Korea, Philippines, etc), are also self-sufficient in terms of cement and are able to export extra capacity as necessary. Additionally, East Asian countries have often seen Africa as a good export market but the recent rise of Nigeria as a major producer may reduce this opportunity.

Amid all of these numbers the Vietnam News Brief Service commented that the current oversupply in the socialist state was down to the 'unplanned' construction of cement plants over recent years.

Nigeria: This week has seen a major development in the Nigerian cement industry, with a call from domestic manufacturers to ban cement imports, three months ahead of the government's schedule for the ban. The call has been presented in some quarters as proof that the country, long blighted by high cement imports, has achieved President Goodluck Jonathan's bold target of making Nigeria a net exporter of cement before 2013. In the face of steadily diminishing oil revenues the government would like Nigeria to be known as the regional cement exporter, but what else might happen?

According to the Cement Manufacturers' Association of Nigeria (CMAN), the country's total cement capacity now stands at 22.5Mt/yr. Domestic consumption is estimated at 18.5Mt/yr, translating into a required capacity utilisation rate of 82%. It is bizarre, therefore, that cement producers feel the need to call for an import ban. Perhaps:

a) The producers know that they can't compete with the low cost of imports from outside Nigeria,

b) The producers want to recoup their plant investment costs as quickly as possible,

c) The producers know that they can't export if the country continues to import.

With notoriously poor transport links within Nigeria, option c may be a small factor. If road and rail links are poor, transport costs increase and exports become less desirable for both the supplier and the end-user. What is more likely however, is a combination of a and b. Producers need to recoup their investments but can't if China and India can undercut them from thousands of miles away. If the desire to recoup investments goes unchecked when the import ban comes in, there is a high potential for cartel-like behaviour to surface again in the country.

One does not have to look back far to the last major incident of apparent cement market cartelisation in Nigeria. In mid-2011 President Jonathan had to step in and personally call for a 25% price reduction. His target was hit within three months, but since then prices have slowly started to rise again, even with Dangote's Ibese 6Mt/yr plant coming online just three months ago! With four producers committed to setting up a 3Mt/yr plant each by 2015 in exchange for 2011 import licences, the supply of cement in Nigeria will continue to rise, making the temptation to collaborate even stronger.