Displaying items by tag: Production

The cement output data for December 2021 is out for China and we’re starting to see the effects of a rather tough autumn. Lower coal supplies, consumer prioritisation for energy supplies, higher input costs and a slowing real estate market all contributed to a reduction in output.

Graph 1: Cement output by quarter in China, 2019 –2021. Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China.

As can be seen in Graph 1 above, output took off after the shock of the coronavirus outbreak receded at the start of 2020. This then continued until mid-2021 when things changed. Overall cement out was 2.36Bnt in 2021, an annual drop of nearly 1.2% compared to 2.39Bnt in 2020. Note that the 2021 output figure is about average for China’s annual output since it hit a high of nearly 2.5Bnt in 2014. However, the months from September 2021 onwards have seen output drops of above 10% year-on-year. It’s been from a high base but if it were to continue it could signal a more ominous trend. As the China Cement Association (CCA) describes it, cement output started to slow from May to August 2021, in part due to seasonal factors and repeated local outbreaks of Covid-19 around the country. This trend then started to accelerate for the reasons mentioned above.

Looking at energy first, coal future prices in China hit a near-decade high in October 2021 due to a variety of market disruptions. This looked set to worsen at the start of January 2022 when the country’s biggest overseas supplier, Indonesia, banned exports for a month due domestic shortages. However, data has since emerged this week from the National Bureau of Statistics showing that Chinese coal production grew by 4% year-on-year to 4.07Bnt in 2021, with faster monthly growth, as the industry ramped up output to meet demand.

On the real estate market, the CCA views it as having run ‘hot’ and then ‘cold’ in 2021. At the start of the year the government introduced new government regulations (its so-called three red lines of policy) to reduce borrowing in the sector. The real estate market subsequently declined, not withstanding certain hot-spots. In the western press this process has been symbolised by the fortunes of Evergrande and its debts of over US$300bn. It started missing bond payments in September 2021 before formally defaulting in December 2021. As the Financial Times newspaper reported in a summary on the situation, in late December 2021, Evergrande said that work at 92% of its projects, which number in the hundreds across China, had resumed. Separate data though showed that its housing sales had slumped by 99% year-on-year in the same month. The newspaper has compared the Chinese government’s approach to Evergrande to its handling of conglomerate HNA Group, which was eventually declared bankrupt in 2021 after a slow disintegration. In its opinion the government may try to control the collapse of Evergrande through a series of quiet interventions over a long period. However, Evergrande’s debts appear to be double those of HNA Group’s and there may be further risks from other companies in the real estate sector. All of this presents risks to local cement output.

To round up, Chinese cement output in the second quarter of 2022 is the figure to watch to assess how well the industry is coping with its current issues. Production is likely to slow in the first quarter due to seasonal factors such as the New Year holidays, winter shutdowns and the hangover from the problems in the autumn. Once the spring arrives then we may have a glimpse of how cement companies are coping with coal supplies, the real estate market and all the rest.

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China: Tangshan Jidong Cement says that it expects its consolidated net profit to drop by up to 3.5% year-on-year to US$441m in 2021 from US$457m in 2021. Its full-year cement and clinker sales were 99.7Mt in 2021, down by 7% year-on-year.

India: NCL Industries has reported an 11% drop in its cement production in the third quarter of the 2022 financial year (1 October 2022 – 31 December 2022) to 561,000t from 633,000t in the corresponding period of the 2021 financial year. The company’s cement dispatches also fell by 11% in the period, to 558,000t from 625,000t. Meanwhile, its cement board production grew by 16% to 19,900t and dispatches of cement boards remained level year-on-year at 19,100t.

Azerbaijan: Cement companies produced 3.19Mt of cement in the first 11 months of 2021, up by 3.4% year-on-year from 3.09Mt. On 1 December 2021, total cement reserves in stockpiles were 113,000t. Ready-mix concrete production rose in the first 11 months of 2021 by 2.9% to 986,000m3 from 937,000m³, while precast concrete production more than doubled to 301,000m3 from 143,000m³.

US: Cement companies in the US produced 57.8Mt of clinker in the first nine months of 2021, in line with production in the corresponding period of 2020. Cement shipments including imports rose by 4.2% year-on-year to 79.9Mt from 76.7Mt, according to the United States Geological Service (USGS). The lead cement consuming states by total shipments were Texas, California and Florida. Texas received 11.4Mt of cement (14% of the national total), down by 8.5% from 12.4Mt, California received 8.19Mt (10%), up by 7.8% from 7.6Mt and Florida received 5.4Mt (6.8%), up by 5.6% from 5.11Mt.

Sri Lanka: Insee Cement says it has eased a local cement shortage by operating at maximum production capacity and optimising its distribution channels. It reported a record output of 0.7Mt for the third quarter of 2021, according to the Colombo Post newspaper. The company also introduced two new import ships to help the situation.

Gustavo Navarro, the chief executive officer of Insee Cement Sri Lanka said, “We continued to fully support government regulations and industrial policies to first stabilise the market, and were able to deploy our island-wide distribution and dealership network to ensure an uninterrupted supply across the island. The loyalty and patience of our customers gave us that extra encouragement we needed to overcome the challenge.”

China: China has increased its production of cement by 2.1% year-on-year to 1.97Bnt in the first 10 months of 2021. Xinhua’s China Economic Information Service has reported that the country exported US$19.6bn-worth of building materials over the period, up by 13%, while its domestic construction market grew by 11%.

Pakistan: The government plans to raise the rate of federal excise duty for cement plants operating at less than 100% capacity utilisation. The Dawn newspaper has reported that the measure aims to reduce cement prices in the country. Taxes are currently US$8.55/t of cement produced. In the 2021 financial year, capacity utilisation was at 84% of the available 69.3Mt/yr total capacity. Since the 2017 financial year, it has dropped below 75% in some years. Over the five-year period, the national cement capacity has increased at an average of 8.6% annually.

Ministry of Finance spokesperson Muzzammil Aslam said “Who should we protect: consumers or cement makers? Is it not harmful for the country that they have joined hands and set a higher market price?”

Venezuela: Corporacion Socialista del Cemento plans to begin to export cement to countries in the Caribbean from the beginning of 2022. The El Universal newspaper has reported that the company’s plant is in the process of increasing its production of cement and clinker for the start of exports. In the first 10 months of 2021, it more than doubled its production and more than tripled its sales volumes.

President Pietro Acosta said "We are contributing to the growth of a new free, non-oil, diversified economy.” He added “We will still continue to serve the national market."

US: Titan America says that 100% of its Pennsuco cement plant in Medley, Florida’s, cement production will be lower-carbon Portland limestone cement (PLC) by ‘as early as 2023.’ The cement, called Type IL, has 15% reduced CO₂ emissions compared to ordinary Portland cement (OPC), according to the company.

Mid-Atlantic regional president Kevin Baird said “We are serving large customers in E-Commerce, cloud services and infrastructure. These customers are committed to sustainable development and are demanding solutions for green construction. Low carbon cement, such as our Type IL, is one of the ways we are meeting the needs of our customers for these projects.”