Displaying items by tag: SNIC

Our latest look at South America starts by posing the question: how far can the market in Brazil keep growing? As Graph 1 shows below, cement sales skyrocketed through the coronavirus pandemic, due to a general recovery locally that started in 2018 and relatively weak lockdown measures compared to other countries. Rolling annual totals on a monthly basis from the National Cement Industry Association (SNIC) suggest that this growth period tailed off from May 2021. SNIC was also keen to point out that, despite nearly hitting nearly a 20% growth rate at one point, the sector was still 11% behind where it was before the lull that lasted from 2015 to 2018. As ever the association has an eye on potential risks. At present these include legislative reforms, price inflation and carbon pricing. It noted that Mexico, Colombia, Chile and Argentina all price carbon already but said that the country ‘has a great ally in the Brazilian cement industry’ on the issue.

Elsewhere the big story in Brazil has been the ongoing sale of Holcim’s local assets. The latest news at the start of August 2021 was that the bidders included CSN Cimentos, Cimentos Mizu, Cimento Apodi, InterCement and Votorantim. The first three companies were reportedly working in a consortium in an attempt to buy 10 production plants while InterCement and Votorantim were focusing on smaller bids to avoid the ire of the competition regulators. Aside from this, CSN Cimentos agreed to buy Cimento Elizabeth for US$220m in July 2021 and Companhia Nacional de Cimento (CNC), part of Italy-based Buzzi Unicem’s 50% subsidiary BCPAR, acquired CRH Brasil following approval by the regulators. Of note on the production side, Votorantim Cimentos started operation of a new production line at its Pecém grinding plant in Ceará in July 2021.

Graph 1: Cement sales in selected South American countries in first half of year, 2019 – 2021. Source: Local cement associations and national statistics offices.

Over in Peru the now familiar gap-tooth pattern of stunted growth in 2020 can be seen in the sector’s cement sales, but sales rebounded far stronger than comparable sized markets in Argentina and Colombia. Sales nearly doubled to 6.42Mt in the first half of 2021 from 3.33Mt in the same period in 2020 and were significantly higher than the 4.94Mt recorded in the first half of 2020. Imports are also worth watching. Combined cement and clinker importers nearly doubled from 0.76Mt in the first half of 2019 to 1.4Mt in the first half of 2021. Clinker imports made up about two thirds of this figure and the Association of Cement Producers (ASOCEM) noted in June 2021 that 88% of the imported cement came from Vietnam while about two thirds of the clinker came from Japan and Indonesia.

Away from the market data, both Cementos Pacasmayo’s and Unión Andina de Cementos’ (UNACEM) financial results bounced back in the first half of 2021. Cementos Pacasmayo attributed the rebound to sales of bagged cement to the self-construction sector and public sector reconstruction demand. UNACEM also noted the effect of the self-construction sector and said it expected its ‘solid’ cement despatches to continue for the rest of the year despite the risk of a third wave of coronavirus in the country and the messy presidential elections. Other stories of note so far in 2021 include new developments in Cementos Interoceanicos long-held plans to build a 1.0Mt/yr cement plant in Puno and a major upgrade planned to Yura’s integrated plant in Arequipa.

In Colombia local cement despatches grew by 34% year-on-year to 6.20Mt in the first half of 2021 from 4.61Mt in the same period in 2020. Cementos Argos reported major improvements in sales, sales volumes of cement and earnings due to the lockdown in 2020. However, a national wave of protests calling for social reform that started in the spring of 2012 forced the company to shut down its integrated Yumbo plant for over a month. This represented 18% of its national sales. The output of other plants in the country was also negatively affected by roadblocks created by the unrest. Cemex reported the same problems in the country.

Finally, Argentina’s cement despatches rose by 44% to 5.52Mt in the first half of 2021 from 3.83Mt in the same period in 2020. Loma Negra reported that its sales, sales volumes and earnings were all up by a similar rate. The subsidiary of Brazil-based InterCement started up the kiln on its new 2.7Mt/yr production line at the L’Amalí cement plant in Olavarría in June 2021 and commissioning of the new mill and despatch centre on the line were reportedly coming soon in early August 2021. Earlier in the year, in May 2021, Holcim Argentina inaugurated a new 0.5Mt/yr clinker production line at its Malagueño cement plant in Cordoba. These expansion projects were ordered long before coronavirus appeared so it will take a while to see their effects upon the local market. However, the government intervened in June 2021 when it persuaded some building materials producers to agree to reference prices in a bid to curb mounting inflation.

This is what recovery looks like so far in 2021 in the larger cement producing countries in South America. The Brazilian market’s growth phase may be waning after a furious period that even coronavirus wasn’t allowed to slow. Peru’s potential seems set to take off, Colombia’s rebound should have been greater (but it was dented by social unrest) and Argentina seems to be resetting to its usual level. Whatever else happens in the coming months the story to watch going forward will be which company picks up Holcim’s assets in Brazil.

Brazil: Cement sales totalled 31.5Mt in the first half of 2021, up by 16% year-on-year. The National Cement Industry Association (SNIC) attributed the growth to home renovations and new construction projects. The association has forecast total sales for 2021 of 64.2Mt, corresponding to an increase of 6% compared to 2020 levels. It expects the same segments to drive growth in 2022, though at a lower rate.

LafargeHolcim retained its ability to surprise this week with the news that it may be making preparations to leave Brazil. Local press in Minas Gerais revealed on 20 April 2021 that the company was about to try and sell its operations in the country. The building materials producer has not made a public statement yet on the matter, it may not until a deal is done and/or this could all be a great big misunderstanding. So treat the following with caution.

Firstly, LafargeHolcim deciding to sell in Brazil fits with the selective approach increasingly shown by the non-Chinese cement multinationals in recent years. It famously decided to sell up in South-East Asia from 2018 and it got as far as divesting assets in Indonesia and Malaysia. It also tried to sell in the Philippines but the local competition commission didn’t give permission for the proposed deal in the end. As Global Cement Weekly mentioned at the time this was a bold move and doing the same in Brazil seems similarly decisive now. It’s a big market to leave! CRH and HeidelbergCement have both talked openly as well about taking a value-first approach to their divestment strategies rather than trying to retain blanket coverage. However, just because a sale in Brazil by LafargeHolcim sounds right doesn’t mean it is right.

Secondly, data from the National Cement Industry Association (SNIC) shows that the Brazilian cement industry had a good year in 2020. Despite the relentlessly bad news from the coronavirus pandemic, the Brazilian government decided to keep the economy mostly open, allowing the cement industry to continue its recovery since 2018. The sector reported an 11% rise year-on-year in cement sales to 60Mt in 2020. So far in 2021 it has noted a 19% rise year-on-year to 15.3Mt in the first quarter of 2021. Yet, the association forecast slower growth in 2021 as a whole and has warned that the first quarter figures in 2021 don’t show a true picture due to a decline in sales per working day so far in 2021 despite an apparent growth in absolute figures. On the surface it’s a good time to sell cement assets in the country since the sector has been riding a recovery but the general outlook for the country is looking gloomy especially considering the ongoing scale of its coronavirus outbreak and the uncertain damage this may do to the economy as a whole.

Whether or not LafargeHolcim is actually selling up in Brazil or not it, follows the conclusion of the CRH Brazil acquisition by Buzzi Unicem’s Companhia Nacional de Cimento (CNC) joint-venture that was also announced this week after approval by the completion authority. The assets that CRH Brasil has now sold include three integrated cement plants and two grinding plants in the south-east of the country. The subsidiary sold approximately 2.8Mt of cement in 2020. If nothing else this suggests that there should be companies out there pursuing a different strategy to LafargeHolcim, CRH, HeidelbergCement and the rest who will be only too happy to build their portfolio if LafargeHolcim’s Brazilian business does go on sale.

CRH originally bought its plants in Brazil as part of a package deal when Lafarge and Holcim merged in 2015 and any potential sales by LafargeHolcim also link back to this. LafargeHolcim has spent much of the last six years working out what kind of company it wants to be. Certainly, since the current chief executive officer Jan Jenisch took charge it has had the air of a company with a mission. The Firestone Building Products acquisition earlier in 2021 is an example of this, propelling the group away from the triad of cement, concrete and aggregates as the carbon risks of heavy building materials heat up. There is something fitting perhaps that at the company’s next annual general meeting its shareholders will be asked whether they want to change the company’s name to Holcim at the group level. It’s a small thing, all market brands will remain as they are, but it may bookend the post-merger era as much as asset divestments in Indonesia and... potentially Brazil.

Brazil: Cement sales grew by 19% yearn-year to 15.3Mt in the first quarter of 2021 from 12.8Mt in the same period in 2020. The National Cement Industry Association (SNIC) attributed the growth to poor weather and the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic in early 2020. Residential and home-improvement construction work in 2021 were also seen as contributing factors. However, association president Paulo Camillo Penna called for caution due to a decline in sales per working day so far in 2021 despite the apparent growth in absolute figures. The association also called for the local coronavirus vaccination campaign to be accelerated.

Brazil: Cement producers sold 60Mt of cement in 2020, up by 11% year-on-year. The Valor Econômico newspaper has reported that residential and commercial renovations and new projects contributed to the increase. The National Cement Industry Association (SNIC) has forecast that growth will not exceed 1% in 2021. It said that this will be due to an economic downturn and the end of the government’s emergency aid programme.

Brazil: The National Cement Industry Association (SNIC) has predicted cement sales in 2020 to rise by 10% year-on-year to 60Mt. Valor International News has reported that president Paulo Camillo Penna said, “If in 2021 we maintain the 60Mt we expect to reach this year, or have some progress beyond this volume, it will be a very satisfactory result considering the high uncertainties ahead."

Buzzi Unicem beefed up its presence in Brazil this week with the announcement that it is buying CRH’s local cement plants through its Companhia Nacional de Cimento (CNC) joint-venture with Grupo Ricardo Brennand. The deal covers CRH Brazil’s three integrated plants at Cantagalo in Rio de Janeiro, and, Arcos and Matozinhos in Minas Gerais. It also throws in two grinding plants including the Santa Luzia Plant in Minas Gerais for a total of US$218m, although the final figure may change depending on conditions such as the net financial situation at the closing date.

The purchase brings up two trends. Firstly, it’s a continuation of CRH’s refocus on safe havens in Europe and North America. The Ireland-based building materials producer originally picked up these plants in the wake of the formation of LafargeHolcim in 2015 as part of a package deal for Euro6.5bn in its ‘bolt-on’ acquisition expansion phase. Most of the assets in that deal were in Europe and North America, although it did see CRH also build a presence in the Philippines.

Since late 2019 reports have emerged in the press about plans to sell up in Brazil and the Philippines. Whether CRH has made any profit on its sale in Brazil is hard to tell given the scale of its purchases from Lafarge and Holcim in 2015. The focus was likely on those key markets closer to home. Yet cement sales in Brazil peaked in 2014 before the national economy were hit by falling commodity and oil prices that contributed to a recession as well as the Petrobras political crisis. Sales bottomed out in 2018 and have been building steam since. Now is certainly the time to consider departure with a good price given the National Cement Industry Union’s (SNIC) glowing data for September 2020.

For Buzzi Unicem, the proposed acquisition represents the next step on its multinational ambitions, pushing Brazil into its fifth biggest territory in terms of cement production capacity after Italy, the US, Mexico and Germany. Its timing was good in September 2018, when it agreed to buy a 50% stake in the Brazilian company BCPAR from Grupo Ricardo Brennand for Euro150m, because local sales were finally starting to pick up. Once again Buzzi Unicem has also picked up cement production assets for a capacity price just below US$100/t. This time it faces a similar balance of uncertainty with the Brazilian cement industry reporting continuing growth but facing an uncertain future from the economic effects, locally and worldwide, from the coronavirus pandemic.

One point to note here is that as part of its deal with Grupo Ricardo Brennand in 2018, Buzzi Unicem had the right to buy the remaining 50% of BCPAR from Grupo Ricardo Brennand until 1 January 2025. Presumably, though, the option to buy Grupo Ricardo Brennand out of BCPA remains valid. This makes it interesting that Buzzi Unicem chose further expansion over consolidation of its existing business. Four years remain for it to buy the rest of BCPAR if it wants to.

Given the concentration of the Brazilian business in the south-east of the country it seems unlikely that the acquisition would be turned down since the enlarged BCPAR will hold a production base behind larger producers like Votorantim or InterCement. However, Cimento Nacional’s Sete Lagoas plant and CRH Brazil’s Matozinhos plant are both close in Belo Horizonte and this may cause concerns. Now it’s over to the Brazilian regulators to approve or decline the deal and the various parties to finalise.

There’s no single theme this week, just a few news stories of note that may have wider significance.

Firstly comes the news that Semen Indonesia subsidiary Semen Padang has been exporting 25,000t of cement to Australia. This follows a consignment of 35,000t of clinker to Bangladesh. The company is hoping to hit a cement and clinker export target of 1.58Mt in 2020 in spite of the on-going coronavirus pandemic. It reached 1.09Mt (about 70%) of this by mid-September 2020 through exports to Bangladesh, Myanmar, Philippines, Australia, Sri Lanka and Maldives.

The wider picture here is that local sales in Indonesia fell by 7.7% year-on-year to 27.2Mt in the first half of 2020 from 29.4Mt in the same period in 2019, according to data from the Indonesian Cement Association (ASI). Cement and clinker exports are up by 32.8% to 3.7Mt from 2.8Mt. Semen Indonesia’s revenue is down but it has managed to hold its earnings up so far. During press rounds in late August 2020 its marketing and supply chain director, Adi Munandir, told local press that he expected domestic demand to fall by up to 15% in 2020 due to effects of coronavirus on private construction and government infrastructure plans. Analysts reckon that the worst of the demand slump hit in the second quarter of 2020 when government-related coronavirus restrictions were implemented, so Semen Indonesia’s third quarter results will closely scrutinised.

One of Semen Padang export targets is the Maldives. This chimes with another story this week because Oman-based Raysut Cement has just bought a majority stake in a cement terminal from Lafarge Maldives for US$8m. The 9000t capacity Thilafusi cement terminal is located on the island of Thilafusi, Kaafu and was expanded in 2015. Raysut Cement has tended to stick to markets in the southern Arabian Peninsula and the east coast of Africa, with projects planned in Madagascar and Somaliland. Yet expansion plans in places further away such as India and Georgia have also been mentioned publicly. A greater presence in the Maldives is a solid step towards Raysut heading eastwards. This would also mirror the plans of the country’s gypsum sector to dominate African and Asian markets and a general longer term shift in global markets from west to east.

One place west that has been doing well in cement though is Brazil. National Cement Industry Union (SNIC) data for September 2020 show a 21% year-on-year boom in cement sales to 5.8Mt and a 9.4% year-on-year increase to 44.6Mt for the first nine months of 2020. Earlier in the year the country’s limited coronavirus suppression methods were attributed for letting the recovering cement sector grow. Now, SNIC has directly thanked government support for civil construction. However, Paulo Camillo Penna, the president of SNIC said. “The results are surprising so far, but that doesn't give us security in the long run,” due to a bubble of real estate and commercial activity that already appears to be declining. Given the slump in cement demand from 2015 to 2018 it’s understandable that SNIC is taking the recovery cautiously.

And to finish we have two connected stories about Cemex. Following the release of its resilience strategy in September 2020, the company has now declared that its integrated Rüdersdorf cement plant in Germany will be the centrepiece of its CO2 reduction plans as part of ‘Vision Rüdersdorf.’ Details are light at present but we expect some kind of carbon capture and storage or usage project. An addendum to this – or perhaps it’s the other way round (!) – is that Cemex has also just announced further credit amendments but with sustainability-linked metrics. Cemex’s chief financial officer (CFO) Maher Al-Haffar said, “We are especially proud that this transaction represents one of the largest sustainability-linked loans in the world.” The teeth of this arrangement remain to be seen but the integration of finance and sustainability has serious implications generally.

Watch out for a research and development themed interview with Cemex and Synhelion in the December 2020 issue of Global Cement Magazine

Brazil: Cement sales rose by 21% year-on-year to 5.8Mt in September 2020 from 4.8Mt in September 2019. Data from the National Cement Industry Union (SNIC) shows that sales increased by 9.4% year-on-year to 44.6Mt in the first nine months of 2020 from 40.8Mt in the same period in 2019. Particular gains for the year to date were noted in the North-East and Central-West regions. SNIC has attributed the sales growth to government support for civil construction.

“The results are surprising so far, but that doesn't give us security in the long run,” said Paulo Camillo Penna, president of SNIC. “Sales are being sustained, in the great majority, by real estate construction, the maintenance of the pace of works and small residential reforms and also in the commercial activity that already presents a decline in consumption due to its operation,” However he also noted that activity had been, “subjected to a huge and unexpected pressure of demand, especially since June 2020.” As such SNIC has called for resumption of infrastructure work to stabilise demand.

Data is starting to emerge from South American countries for the first half of 2020 and it’s not necessarily what one might expect. Countries had different trends in play before the coronavirus pandemic established itself and then governments acted in their own ways with mixed results. Here’s a brief summary of the situation in the key territories.

Graph 1: Cement sales in selected South American countries in first half of year, 2018 – 2020. Source: Local cement associations and national statistics offices. Note: Colombian data is for January – May for each year.

Brazil’s cement sector looked set to become the big loser as global events seemed poised to dent the recovery of cement sales since a low in 2018. This didn’t happen. The Brazilian national cement industry union’s (SNIC) preliminary data for the first six months of 2020 shows that sales grew by 3.7% year-on-year to 26.9Mt. This is above the growth rate of 3% originally expected. Indeed, the monthly year-on-year growth rate in June 2020 was 24.5%. SNIC is not wrong in describing this kind of pace as being ‘Chinese.’ All this growth has been attributed to the home improvement market as people used their lockdown time to renovate their homes, renovations and maintenance in commercial buildings during lockdown and growing work on real estate projects. The government’s decision to implement weak lockdown measures clearly helped the sector but this may have cost lives in the process.

SNIC’s president Paulo Camillo Penna pointed out that producing and selling cement could co-exist with fighting coronavirus. However, trends such as a slowing real estate sector, less large construction projects and mounting input costs are all seen as potential risks in the second half of 2020. What SNIC didn’t link to the wider fortunes of the local cement industry was the economic consequences of coronavirus. The World Bank, for example, has forecast an 8% fall in gross domestic product in Brazil in 2020 due to its coronavirus, “mitigation measures, plunging investment and soft global commodity prices.”

Peru, in contrast to Brazil, implemented a strong lockdown early in March 2020. Unfortunately, it didn’t seem to work as well as hoped possibly due to informal and structural issues such as reliance on markets, the informal economy and residential overcrowding. This means that production and sales of cement are significantly down without any public health benefit. Both production and despatches fell by about 40% to around 2.9Mt in the first half of 2020 with close to total stoppages in April 2020. In terms of coronavirus, Peru is at the time of writing in the top 10 worldwide for both total cases and deaths, behind only Brazil in South America. It should be pointed out though that Peru’s testing rate is reportedly high for the region and this may be making its response look dire in the short term. All of this is particularly sad from an industrial perspective given that Peru was one of the continent’s strongest performers prior to 2020. One consolation though is that the economy is expected to recover more quickly compared to its neighbours.

Argentina started 2020 with a downward trend in its local market. Cement sales had been falling since 2017, roughly following a recession in the wider economy. Throw in a strong lockdown and sales more than halved at its peak in April 2020. So far this has led to a drop of 31% to 3.83Mt for the first half of 2020 compared to 5.51Mt in the same period in 2019. Unfortunately, a recent spike in cases in Buenos Aires has led to renewed lockdowns in the capital. Due to this unwelcome development and the general economic situation Fitch Ratings has forecast an overall decline in cement sales volumes of 25% for 2020 as a whole.

Finally, Colombia’s cement production fell by 24% year-on-year to 3.90Mt in the first five months of 2020 from 5.14Mt in the same period in 2019. April 2020 was the worst month affected. The country’s lockdown ended on 13 April 2020 for infrastructure projects and on 27 April 2020 for cement production and residential and commercial construction. On 5 May 2020 Cementos Argos said that domestic demand was at 50% of pre-lockdown levels. Data from DANE, the Colombian statistics authority, shows that local sales fell by around a third year-on-year to 0.71Mt in May 2020 from 1.06Mt in May 2019.

Most of the countries examined above follow the pattern of reduced cement production and sales in relation to the severity of the lockdown imposed and the resulting intensity of the coronavirus outbreak. Stronger lockdowns suppressed cement production and sales in the region of 20 – 40% in the first half of the year as governments shut down totally and then released industry and commerce incrementally. The exception is Peru, which has suffered the worst of both worlds: a severe lockdown and a severe health crisis. Local trends have continued around this, like the recovery in Brazil in the construction industry and the general recession in Argentina.

SNIC’s president has said that making and selling cement needn’t be exclusive with public health measures. He’s right but Brazil’s surging case load is an outlier compared with most of its continental neighbours and the rest of the world. Cement sectors in countries with growing economies like Peru and Colombia are expected to bounce back quicker than those with stagnant ones like Argentina. The risk for Brazil is what its government health strategy will do to the construction sector in the second half of 2020.