Displaying items by tag: market

North America: Switzerland-based Holcim has announced the name for its upcoming spin-off of its North American operations: Amrize. Amrize will operate as an independent public company and a leader in the North American building materials sector ‘from foundation to rooftop.’ Holcim says that the new name combines the business’ values and vision of ‘ambition’ and ‘rising.’ A spin-off on the New York Stock Exchange and SIX Swiss Exchange is scheduled for completion before 30 June 2025, pending shareholder and regulatory approvals.

Holcim Chair and designated Chair and CEO of Amrize Jan Jenisch said "This is an exciting time for construction in North America, with the ongoing modernisation of infrastructure, the reshoring of manufacturing and the opportunity to bridge the housing gap with the most advanced building solutions. With our planned spin-off of Amrize, we aim to be the partner of choice for our North American customers and unlock value for all our stakeholders.”

Alpacem said this week that it had completed its acquisition of the Fanna cement plant near Pordenone. The 0.66Mt/yr integrated plant and a number of ready-mixed concrete plants became part of the Austria-headquartered group at the start of February 2025. Alpacem now has three integrated plants, with units at Wietersdorf in Austria and Anhovo in Slovenia, in addition to Fanna.

The deal dates back to mid-2023 when Alpacem said it had signed an agreement with Buzzi. In return Buzzi was set to receive a 25% stake in Alpacem Zement Austria. Prior to this the two companies had a strategic partnership in Austria and Slovenia that dated back to 2014. At the time of the agreement Buzzi held a 25% share in each of two Alpacem subsidiaries: Salonit Anhovo in Slovenia; and W&P Cementi in Italy. The Fanna plant was originally owned by Cementizillo before it was bought by Buzzi in 2018.

Also this week, Federbeton warned that the high cost of gas would add €80m/yr to the cost of cement production. Nicola Zampella, General Manager of Federbeton and the cement association AITEC, noted that local energy costs would reduce the competitiveness of producers against imports from outside of the European Union (EU). This ties into comments Stefano Gallini, the president of Federbeton, made in December 2024 when he highlighted the growing share of imports from outside the EU.

Federbeton raised the issue in its annual report for 2023, showing that imports rose to a 19% production share in 2023. Italy produced 18.8Mt of and imported 3.6Mt of cement and clinker in 2023. This is its highest level of imports for at least a decade. Over the same period the country’s cement exports, as a share of production, have remained steady at around 10 - 11%. In 2023 Türkiye was the biggest source of imports (25%) followed by Greece (17%), Slovenia (17%), Tunisia (12%) and Algeria (10%).

Graph 1: Cement production, imports and exports in Italy, 2019 - 2023. Source: Federbeton.

It is worth recalling that the cement sector in Italy used to be larger before it started consolidating in the late 2000s. Italcementi was acquired by Germany-based Heidelberg Materials. Operations by Sacci, Cementir and Cemenzillo were all bought out too. Local cement production reached a high of 47.9Mt in 2006 before it stabilised at around 20Mt/yr from 2015 onwards.

In its preliminary results for 2024, out this week too, Buzzi reported that the construction market In Italy probably shrank in 2024 due to a poor residential housing market. However, the cement company managed to keep its local net sales stable by raising prices and focusing on exports. Despite this, it noted a drop in cement and concrete sales volumes at the end of 2024. More data on the construction market in Italy may emerge when Heidelberg Materials releases its 2024 financial results at the end of February 2025.

The backdrop to this has been a rise in gas prices in Europe towards the end of 2024 as the EU ‘emergency’ price cap finished on 31 January 2025. Around the same time the EU is preparing to reveal information on its Clean Industry Deal towards the end of February 2025. Plus, the first active phase of EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is preparing to enter into force from the start of 2026. Each of these issues has implications for the cement sector in Italy as the location associations have been highlighting. One question will be whether the Clean Industry Deal can help producers cope with mounting energy prices. Another will be whether CBAM will change the proportion of imports for countries like Italy or will the sources of the imports simply change. Plenty to consider for the year ahead.

US President Donald Trump threatened tariffs on imports from Canada, China, Mexico and the European Union this week. Tariffs to Canada and Mexico were announced on 1 February 2025 and then paused for a month to allow for negotiations. Ones to China have been implemented. Tariffs to the European Union have been proposed but nothing has happened yet. What does this mean for the cement sector?

Graph 1: Imports of cement and clinker to the US. Source: USGS. Estimated data for 2024.

The data suggests that whacking 25% tariffs on cement imports from Canada and Mexico would have an impact. The US imported 26.5Mt of cement and clinker in 2023. Based on United States Geological Survey (USGS) data from January to October 2024, imports in 2024 have fallen by 8% year-on-year but they still represent a large chunk of consumption. Türkiye has been the biggest source of imports over the last five years but Canada has been the second biggest supplier. Together with Mexico, it provided over a quarter of imports in 2023. A similar share is expected in 2024. Greece, a country in the EU, has also been present in the top five importing countries to the US during this time.

The Portland Cement Association (PCA) reinforced this view. In a carefully worded statement it took pains to point out alignment with the intentions behind the tariffs, such as appreciating that the administration was open to negotiation and appeared to be flexible. However, it warned that the moves could adversely affect energy and national security, delay infrastructure projects and raise costs. It pointed out the import share from Canada and Mexico, adding that this represented nearly 7% of the US’ cement consumption. It noted which states were the main entry points for cement imports from the two countries. Finally, it highlighted the high level of consumption (36%) that imports from Canada might account for in northern states such as New York, Washington and so on. Meanwhile, Mexico’s National Chamber of Cement (CANACEM) warned that the proposed actions might trigger a ‘competitiveness crisis’ in the US.

Holcim’s CEO, by contrast, nonchalantly told Reuters that he didn’t expect any impact by tariffs on his business. Miljan Gutovic described the group’s US operations as a local business with production happening in the country and equipment and spare parts all being sourced locally. This optimistic view is likely to be influenced by the company’s impending spin-off of its US business. The listing in the US remains scheduled for the first half of 2025 with no complications expected from tariffs.

Clearly, implementing tariffs on imports of cement and clinker from Canada and Mexico could cause a shortage in the US in the short term. This, in turn, could lead to higher prices for consumers in the US. This potential effect would be pronounced in border regions that are reliant on imports. It is worth noting that a number of production lines in both Mexico and Canada have previously been mobilised to meet the export market to the US. These lines would likely be mothballed if tariffs were to be implemented, unless they could find other markets. In the medium term though, as the World Cement Association (WCA) pointed out this week, the world produces too much cement. So it looks likely that the US cement market would adjust to a new equilibrium. Taxing imports from the EU would have a similar effect. Although it seems like it would be less pronounced for the US cement market unless it was in conjunction with tariffs to Canada and Mexico. It would certainly be bad news for cement producers in Greece.

Cement producers in the US look set to benefit from tariffs as demand for their products and prices could increase. There is a risk that too sudden a change to the import market could cause adverse market effects through shortages. Many of these companies are multinational groups with headquarters in foreign countries. However, the strength of the US market compared to elsewhere has prompted some of these businesses to become more ‘American’ through listing in the US or focusing merger and acquisition activity in North America.

At this point we’re stuck in a half-way house place where import tariffs have been threatened and negotiations are pending. The relatively muted stock market reaction to the tariffs and Trump’s swiftness in enacting pauses suggest that it is brinkmanship by the US administration. If this situation continues for any length of time then it will likely have an effect all of its own. In which case don’t expect any export-focused investment by cement companies in Canada and Mexico any time soon.

Indonesia: Indonesian Cement Association (ASI) chair Lilik Unggul Raharjo has called for a more ‘robust’ approach to production overcapacity in the cement sector. In a statement by the ASI he lobbied for the government to strengthen its ban on the construction of new plants, according to the Jakarta Post newspaper and Kontan. At present the moratorium applies to obtaining licences via the country’s integrated electronic licensing system (OSS). Lilik also requested a better legal framework to protect the industry.

The government says it is using the block on investment in new cement plants to support the local sector. Restrictions are in place for regions such as Sumatra, Java, Kalimantan and Sulawesi. However, the government is ‘open’ to new plants being built in areas that have no existing units including Papua and Maluku.

ASI data shows that cement sales reached 77Mt in 2024 with a capacity utilisation rate of 65%. Domestic sales fell by just under 1% year-on-year to 65Mt in 2024. Exports grew by 10% to 12Mt. The ASI expects domestic sales of cement to increase by up to 2% in 2025.

Thailand: Siam Cement Group (SCG) has forecast a 5% year-on-year rise in its full-year revenues due to economic revival and the government’s current stimulus package. President and CEO Thammasak Sethaudom said that increased customer purchasing power in Vietnam will raise SCG’s local cement and building material sales

SCG’s additional focuses will be on entering the Australia and North America markets and developing its high value-added products segment.

Vietnam: The general director of Vietnam Cement Industry Corporation (VICEM), Nguyen Thanh Tung, says that Vietnam will suffer continued cement overcapacity amid high production costs in 2025. Full-year production is forecast at 125Mt, 96% greater than an expected domestic demand of 63.5Mt. Việt Nam News has reported that Vietnam’s cement exports face an on-going investigation in Taiwan, and are already subject to anti-dumping duties in the Philippines.

VICEM aims to raise its domestic clinker sales volumes by 8% year-on-year to 18Mt, in order to generate sales of US$1.16bn. To this end, Tung urged the government to adopt cement reinforcement in roadbuilding, as well as lifting the export tax on cement.

Spain: According to the latest data from Oficemen, cement consumption in Spain recorded an average increase of 1.8% in 2024, after rising by 4.3% in November 2024. The figures align with the 1.3% growth observed from January to October 2024. November's boost brought the monthly consumption to 1.34Mt nearly 56,000t more than in November 2023. Despite a 41% growth in exports in November 2024, adding 154,387t, an 8.8% year-on-year decline. From January to November 2024, Spain exported 4.54Mt of cement, 0.44Mt or 9.7% less than the same period in 2023.

Aniceto Zaragoza, general director of Oficemen, said "These positive figures are in line with the forecasts we gave at the beginning of 2024, where we expected a moderate recovery towards the end of the year. With 11 months of data now available, it is not risky to predict that we will close the year with slight positive growth, as we anticipated in January 2024. This trend makes us look at 2025 with some optimism, expecting a more solid increase in consumption."

India: The cement sector in India is forecast to reach a market size of 509Mt/yr by the 2029 financial year. A report published by Infomerics Ratings made the prediction based on a market size of 382Mt in the 2023 financial year and a compound annual growth rate of 4.9%. The credit agency noted the cement sector’s mean growth rate of 5.37% over the last decade and the low cement consumption per capita compared to the global average. It also pointed out that the local cement sector “…faced significant pricing challenges, primarily due to weak demand across various regions.” Demand was reportedly low during the first half of the 2025 financial year leading to lower prices particularly in the south of the country.

India: Aditya Birla plans to expand its production capacity by 28% from 156Mt/yr to 200Mt/yr before 2035. Group chair Kumar Mangalam Birla told the Hindustan Times Leadership Summit in New Delhi that scale is key to long-term survival, and that he always aims for his group to be a leader in any given industry in which it operates.

Domain-B News has reported that Birla said "It took the group 36 years to build a 100Mt/yr cement capacity, while it added another 50Mt/yr capacity in five years.”

On 6 November 2024, Donald Trump appeared before followers in Florida, US, to declare victory in the 47th US presidential election. A sea of red baseball caps reflected the promise of the former president, now once again president-elect, to Make America Great Again. What Trump’s triumph means for the cement industry is not so straightforward. One lesson of President Trump’s 2017 – 2021 tenure as 45th president is that a Trump presidency comes with winners and losers.

Alongside the international heads of state posting their congratulations to Trump via social media was the Portland Cement Association (PCA), which represents US cement producers. In a post to LinkedIn, it took the chance to set out its priorities for the upcoming presidency, set to commence on 20 January 2025. These include collaborating on ‘market‐based initiatives’ to further reduce US cement’s CO₂ emissions, addressing ‘regulatory burdens’ that currently hinder the uptake of alternative fuels (AF) and ensuring favourable policies and funding for the use of alternative cements under federal transport programmes, which are up for renewal in 2026, as well as collaborating on carbon capture, utilisation and storage.

The post was suitably diplomatic for an organisation that will have to work with the incoming administration for the next four years. Reading the policy priorities against some of Trump’s campaign promises, however, they may be more pointed. As part of his plan to stimulate economic growth, Trump has proposed an unspecified reduction of the ‘regulatory burden’ of environmental standards. He also purports to want to replace renewables with increased use of fossil fuels – in direct opposition to the PCA’s goal to slash the US cement industry’s coal and petcoke reliance from 60% to 10% by 2050. The PCA’s stance is not merely ideological: its roadmap is founded on the legally-binding Paris Agreement on climate change mitigation. Trump, who considers the Paris Agreement a ‘disaster,’ has the stated aim of withdrawing the US from the treaty – for a second time!

The PCA included a positive note that “We can all agree that the ultimate goal of our industry and the government is to best serve the American people.” In case there were any doubt as to what it feels best serves those people, it concluded that it will work with all federal officials to help communities in the US to build ‘a more resilient, sustainable’ country.

Producers themselves, in the US and many other markets, had been finalising first-half or nine-month financial results when the Trump news broke. Now came half-anticipated strategy discussions – and a surprise: in market after market, trading in cement stocks opened on the up. Ireland-based CRH’s share price spiked by 15%, before settling on a rise of 6% day-on-day. Mexico-based Cemex’s rose by 7% and Switzerland-based Holcim’s by 5%. Investors, clearly, glimpsed opportunity in uncertainty for these US-involved operators.

Trump’s campaign successfully positioned him as the disruptive outsider, despite being the known (or, at least, known-to-be-unpredictable) quantity of the two candidates. His promise to Americans was increased affordability; to corporations, deregulation. Either way, he stands to overhaul the past four years’ policy on the economy. All of this may keep Wall Street high-ballers placing their bets on Cemex or CRH, or on Holcim North America after it eventually joins them on the New York Stock Exchange. The prospect of more money in homebuyers’ pockets is attractive, especially to allied sectors like property development, where Trump himself worked for over 40 years. The cement industry, meanwhile, will be taking a hard look at what the Trump proposition might mean for its market.

US Geological Survey (USGS) data tracks a favourable market trend under the present Biden Administration – to date – for a US cement industry that has also grown in production terms. Consumption was 120Mt in 2023, up by 14% over the three-year-period from 2020, while production was 91Mt, up by 4% over the same period. President Biden has signed into law two major pieces of legislation – the Inflation Reduction Act and Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act – with a combined value of US$1.94tn in additional public spending, to President Trump’s none. However, the Republican president previously proposed investing an additional US$200bn in 2018.

Trump voters may have perused the USGS’ most recent monthly cement figures, for July 2024, before casting their votes. The figures recorded a 5.2% year-on-year decline in total cement shipments in the year-to-date, to 58.6Mt. Both Eagle Materials and Italy-based Buzzi noted a recent lack of growth in US sales volumes in their latest financial results. Another possibly alarming trend for the industry – and anyone with a protectionist mindset - is the growth of imports, which rose from 14.8Mt in 2019 to 26Mt in 2023.

A defining feature of Trump’s original presidency, alongside Covid-19 lockdown, was his still-ongoing trade wars. We can expect Trump to resume his roll-out of new tariffs as soon as he can. This might include cement plant equipment produced in other jurisdictions, such as the EU. Compared to the roster of goods he previously denied entry to the US, however, 26Mt/yr of cement will be less easy to wrangle with in a country with a domestic shortfall of 29Mt/yr.

Whatever happens in politics, the US cement sector remains very strong, with historied local ownership and some of the most innovative plants in the industry globally. Global players continue to seek to maximise their US-facing presence, as evidenced by Brazil-based Votorantim Cimentos’ contemplation of an initial public offering (IPO) for Votorantim Cimentos North America, announced on 7 November 2024. For the industry, the day-to-day grind – and pyroprocess – goes on.

After all, Trump did not enact many of his more disruptive proposals, such as building a Mexican border wall, after his win in 2016. See Global Cement’s analysis of that proposal here. But even this record is an unreliable guide for what to expect in 2025 – 2029. Not only did Trump himself win the popular mandate this time around, but his allies also gained majorities in the House of Representatives and Senate, comprising the US legislature. This betokens a different pace and scale of possible changes.

In 10 weeks’ time, the US cement sector will be lobbying an entirely new regime. Now is the time for it to prepare whatever arguments will appeal to incoming lawmakers to allow it make the best of such opportunities as may be available.