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Ed Sullivan was present to tell Global Cement Live viewers about the Portland Cement Association’s (PCA) autumn forecast last week. The PCA expects US cement consumption to drop by 1.5% year-on-year on 2020. This is a weighted average of its three projections, which cover a gradual recovery from coronavirus-related economic disruption, a less controlled scenario and one where wide-spread vaccination has a positive effect in the second half of 2021. The first scenario is the PCA Market Intelligence’s most likely one but only the fast vaccination scenario predicts a return to growth in 2021. This is wide but understandable deviation from the PCA’s autumn forecast in 2019 that expected moderate growth albeit a slowly weakening economy. Almost nobody seriously expected 2020 to turn out like it has. Follow the link at the bottom of this article to view the presentation in full.

There’s no single theme this week, just a few news stories of note that may have wider significance.

Firstly comes the news that Semen Indonesia subsidiary Semen Padang has been exporting 25,000t of cement to Australia. This follows a consignment of 35,000t of clinker to Bangladesh. The company is hoping to hit a cement and clinker export target of 1.58Mt in 2020 in spite of the on-going coronavirus pandemic. It reached 1.09Mt (about 70%) of this by mid-September 2020 through exports to Bangladesh, Myanmar, Philippines, Australia, Sri Lanka and Maldives.

The wider picture here is that local sales in Indonesia fell by 7.7% year-on-year to 27.2Mt in the first half of 2020 from 29.4Mt in the same period in 2019, according to data from the Indonesian Cement Association (ASI). Cement and clinker exports are up by 32.8% to 3.7Mt from 2.8Mt. Semen Indonesia’s revenue is down but it has managed to hold its earnings up so far. During press rounds in late August 2020 its marketing and supply chain

The one thing that the Egyptian cement industry really didn’t need this year was any more jolts. Since the gargantuan 13Mt/yr government/army-run El-Arish Cement plant at Beni Suef opened in 2018, the sector has been stuck in production overcapacity and struggling to catch up. Yet, like the rest of us, they got one nasty surprise in the shape of the coronavirus pandemic. This has added stress to the whole situation and we can see some of this in various news stories that Global Cement has covered recently.

HeidelbergCement’s local subsidiary Suez Cement has been busy in recent days making changes to its corporate structure in the form of a tender offer to buy a 100% stake in Egyptian Tourah Portland Cement. Production stopped at Tourah Cement in June 2019 due to market conditions. This follows yet more lacklustre financial results earlier in September 2020 that show the pain that it and other cement producers have been enduring. Suez Cement’s loss nearly doubled year-on-year to Euro38m

Cemex’s transition from a multinational building materials producer to a regional one continued this week with the launch of its ‘Operation Resilience’ strategy. The plan is a stew of coronavirus response, earnings growth, debt reduction, portfolio sharpening and sustainability measures. Yet the intent to “construct a portfolio more

There has been good news from the German Cement Works Association (VDZ) this week. Following a strong start to the year, the association expects cement consumption in 2020 to remain similar to the level, 28.7Mt, reported in 2019. VDZ president Christian Knell acknowledged the difficulty in making forecasts, this year of all years, but said that the association remained positive since demand had held up so well. He noted the continued operation of construction sites, despite the local coronavirus-related lockdown from March 2020, and the ‘quick action’ of politicians.

Graph 1: German cement deliveries, 2015 – 2019: Source: German Cement Works Association (VDZ).

The year certainly started well, with a 33% year-on-year increase in domestic cement deliveries to 1.43Mt in January 2020 from 1.07Mt

India: UltraTech Cement’s consolidated net sales grew by 8% year-on-year to US$1.39bn in the second quarter of its financial year to 30 September 2020 from US$1.29bn in the same period in 2019. Its profit after tax more than doubled to US$167m from US$78.5m. The group attributed its progress to, “strong quarterly performance on the back of operational efficiencies and its ability to serve all India markets.”

It added that it had focused on health and safety and ‘efficient working conditions’ as it had gradually resumed operations following coronavirus-related lockdown restrictions. Overall, the group’s revenue from operations fell by 14% year-on-year to US$2.44bn in the first half of its financial year from US$2.85bn in the same period in 2019.

Mexico: Jaime Rocha Font, the president of the National Cement Chamber (CANACEM), says that cement sales fell by 2% year-on-year in the first half of 2020 due to low demand from construction companies and the private sector. He added that sales fell by 6.3% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2020, according the El Financiero newspaper. Annual sales were 43Mt in 2018 and 40Mt in 2019.

US: The Portland Cement Association (PCA) has forecasted a fourth-quarter cement demand decline of 1.5% year-on-year in 2020, slowing to 0.9% throughout 2021. It said that all three of its post-coronavirus economic recovery scenarios involved a decline until mid-2021, primarily due to “weak construction sectors specifically within retail, hotel and office” non-residential markets, though in the best-case scenario a vaccine could prompt a recovery in these sectors, reducing total demand decline to 0.1% in the second half of 2021. A worst-case ‘W-shaped’ scenario would result from state governments implementing second lockdowns.

Senior vice president and chief economist Ed Sullivan said, “We think that the gradual sustained recovery – the 'U' – has the largest likelihood, followed by the 'vaccine' scenario. The growth-interrupted 'W' scenario is the least likely. He said that in each case federal spending in the fourth quarter of 2020 and the first quarter of 2021 would be

South Africa: PPC recorded sales of US$618m in the 2020 financial year, which ended 31 March 2020, down by 2.4% year-on-year from US$634m in the 2019 financial year. Earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation fell by 17% to US$97.0m from US$118m.

Chief executive officer (CEO) Roland van Wijnen said, “The 2020 financial year was characterised by difficult trading conditions, especially in South Africa. The global Covid-19 pandemic, which emerged during the last month of the financial year, further exacerbated an already difficult trading cycle. While we have seen a decline in our financial performance, we also see that the actions we have taken to reposition PPC to deliver sustainable value for all our stakeholders are beginning to yield results.”

He added, “After the resumption of trading in the 2021 financial year, the performance across all of our core businesses has been encouraging. The group’s capital restructuring remains a key priority. Over

Bangladesh: Production at Premier Cement’s new plants at Narayanganj and Chattogram has been delayed until November 2020 due to the coronavirus pandemic. Mohammed Amirul Haque, managing director of the cement producer, said that the projects have been delayed due to the absence of some technical personnel from China and Denmark, according to the Daily Star newspaper. The units were originally scheduled to start commercial production in June 2020 but this is now expected to start in December 2020. Both plants have a combined budget of around US$150m. Denmark-based FLSmidth was reported to be supplying mills for the plants.