Coronavirus hub

A great question was asked at yesterday’s Virtual Global CemTrans Seminar: what impact did the recent blockage of the Suez Canal cause to the cement industry? Luckily, Rahul Sharan from Drewry was on hand discussing freight costs following the start of the coronavirus pandemic.

As most readers will know, the Suez Canal was blocked in late March 2021 when the 200,000dwt Ever Given ran aground, at around six nautical miles from the southern entry of the canal. The ultra large container vessel was subsequently refloated and towed away just under a week later. While this was happening the fate of the ship became a global news story with business analysts totting up the cost of the obstruction. 40 bulk carriers were reported as waiting to transit the waterway the day after the blockage started and some of these were carrying cement. Reporting by the BBC noted that 369 ships were stuck waiting on either side of the blockage on the day

Financial results for 2020 from the major Chinese cement companies are now out, making it time for a recap. Firstly, information from the China Cement Association (CCA) is worth looking at. The country had a cement production capacity of 1.83Bnt/yr in 2020. For an idea of the current pace of industry growth, 26 new integrated production lines were built in 2020 with a clinker production capacity of just under 40Mt/yr.

This is as one might expect from the world’s biggest cement market. However, the CCA also revealed that the country has over 3400 domestic cement companies, of which two thirds are independent cement grinding companies. Most of these were reportedly created during the late 2000s as dry kilns started to predominate. The CCA is concerned with the quality of the cement some of these companies produce and the lack of order in this part of the market such as regional imbalances. This suggests that the government’s attempts to consolidate the cement industry as a whole had led to the

Two fairly serious investments in Peru made the industry headlines this week. The first was Yura’s plans to upgrade its Arequipa cement plant at a cost of US$200m. The project will involve increasing the plant’s clinker production capacity as well as installing a new mill and a 4.3km conveyor. The second was the latest instalment in Cementos Interoceanicos’ long held ambition to build a plant. It has struck a deal with France-based Satarem to build a 1Mt/yr plant near Puno. The deal also includes Satarem buying a 30% stake in Cementos Interoceanicos and plans to construct two lime units as well.

Graph 1: Local cement sales in Peru, January 2020 to February 2021 compared to January 2019 to February 2020. Source: ASOCEM.

These projects follow a squeeze for the

Several of South Africa’s cement and concrete producers joined up in early March 2021 to form an industry association called Cement & Concrete SA (CCSA). The Concrete Institute, Concrete Society of Southern Africa and the Association of Cementitious Material Producers established the organisation to, “take the lead on all matters relating to cement and concrete in South Africa.” Setting up an organisation like this takes time and it fits with the move in recent years of thinking about the whole building materials chain rather than just focusing on one part. The country is also in the first phase of its carbon tax and no doubt producers feel they need to make a renewed effort to fight their corner. Other aspects such as promoting the ‘value creation story’ of the cement and concrete industry in South Africa, research and training also makes sense.

The timing here is compelling due to the ongoing review of anti-dumping measures that were levied by the International Trade Administration

LafargeHolcim’s financial results for 2020 arrived this week, giving us data on many of the larger multinational cement producers. The Chinese ones are yet to release their results and some of the larger other ones such as CRH, Votorantim and InterCement are pending too. Yet, what we have so far gives a selective view on an unusual year. Revenue was down for most producers year-on-year in 2020 due to the effects of the coronavirus pandemic upon construction activity and demand for building materials. There were large regional differences between how countries implemented different lockdowns, how markets responded and how they bounced back afterwards. Generally, the financial effects of this were felt in the first half of 2020 with recovery in the second.

Graph 1:

Brazil: Votorantim Cimentos’ consolidated net sales were US$6.41bn in 2020, up by 19% year-on-year from US$5.41bn in 2019. Its adjusted earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) also rose, by 35% to US$1.21bn from US$899m. The group attributed the growth to increased cement volumes sold in Brazil, Canada and the US. Total global cement sales increased by 8% to 32.4Mt. Net revenue grew in all regions, but the sharpest growth was reported in North America at 43% to US$945m.

Chief financial officer Osvaldo Ayres Filho said, “The past year has been extremely challenging due to the pandemic and its impacts across the planet. We have implemented a contingency plan to protect people's lives and preserve operations. This allowed us to respond with agility both in Brazil and in the other markets in which we have operations, ending the year with increased sales, cash generation growth and the lowest leverage in the past ten years.”

During the year,

Brazil: Cement sales grew by 19% yearn-year to 15.3Mt in the first quarter of 2021 from 12.8Mt in the same period in 2020. The National Cement Industry Association (SNIC) attributed the growth to poor weather and the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic in early 2020. Residential and home-improvement construction work in 2021 were also seen as contributing factors. However, association president Paulo Camillo Penna called for caution due to a decline in sales per working day so far in 2021 despite the apparent growth in absolute figures. The association also called for the local coronavirus vaccination campaign to be accelerated.

Philippines: Eagle Cement recorded full-year consolidated net sales of US$286m in 2020, down by 30% year-on-year from US$408m in 2019. The company said that it recorded a stronger performance in the second half of 2020, according to the Manila Times newspaper. Second-half sales fell by 14% year-on-year to US$165m. Its full-year net income fell by 44% to US$70.1m from US$124m.

Chief executive officer Paul Ang said "The halting of our operations due to pandemic-related restrictions took a hit on our results in the first half of 2020 but the remaining half proved that we are well-positioned to bounce back. We saw improvement in our volume and we are able to bring down our production cost in 2020.” He added "We will continue to work on aggressive marketing and better pricing strategies for this year and this will be complemented by focusing on cost control initiatives in our operations, which will enable us to deliver better returns in 2021."

China: Huaxin Cement has forecast consolidated net profit growth of 104% - 111% year-on-year to US$55.7m – US$59.6m in the first quarter of 2021 from US$53.7m in the same period in 2020. The group said that cement volumes rose by 60% and concrete and aggregate volumes grew by over 200%. The cement producer has attributed the growth to the impact of coronavirus upon its business at the start of 2020.

US: The Portland Cement Association (PCA) has predicted a rise in US cement demand in 2021 and 2022 in its Spring 2021 Cement Consumption and Construction Activity Outlook. The report stated that mortgage rates are expected to remain low throughout 2021, prompting single-family construction. Non-residential cement consumption declines are expected to continue from 2020 in to 2021 and 2022, though with decreasing impact. Predicted oil price rises will increase oil well cement consumption.

The association welcomed a proposed US$2.2Tn eight-year federal government infrastructure spending programme. Chief economist and senior vice president Ed Sullivan warned of the proposal’s inherent political weakness in its inclusion of US$1.2Tn-worth of low or no-cement projects. He said that the opposition would latch on to this as grounds to oppose the necessary tax rises for the funding.

Sullivan said, “This recovery is predicated on continued progress in fighting Covid-19. The rapid