Displaying items by tag: Emissions Trading Scheme
Vicat sitting on carbon credit mine
18 February 2020France: French press has reported that Vicat, the last remaining cement producer in French hands, has accumulated a large stockpile of EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) credits, sufficient to last it until 2030. It says that this makes it unique among cement producers covered by the scheme. It has never sold any of the credits that it was over-allocated in the first three stages of the ETS. It is thought that this will put it at a competitive advantage from the start of stage 4 in January 2021, when free allowances for the sector will become significantly scarcer.
Vicat has a stock of credits that represent 5Mt of CO2, valued at Euro120m at the current market price. "It covers our activity in France and Switzerland and we will still be in a surplus position in 2030. We are entering the next European regulatory phase in a good condition," said CEO Guy Sidos.
Vicat is keen to point out that this does not mean it is complacent or will pollute at all costs. "At the end of 2019, we reduced our CO2 emissions by 15% compared to 1990. The objective is a further decrease of 13% between today and 2030," explained Sidos.
Polish cement production stagnant as non-EU imports rise
04 February 2020Poland: The Association of Cement Producers in Poland estimates that cement production reached 19Mt in the country in 2019, around 1% more than in 2018. According to estimates, imports from Belarus and Turkey, the producers of which do not have to purchase EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) permits, grew by 0.25Mt and 50,000t respectively. The Association expects that sales will remain a similar level in 2020.
Polish electricity prices rose by about 35-40% during 2019, caused to a large extent by the surge in ETS permit prices. This, said Xavier Guesnu, CEO of Lafarge Polska, is leading to a marked increase in imports from outside of the EU. There are concerns that, if unchecked, this could adversely affect domestic cement producers.
Innovation in Industrial Carbon Capture Conference 2020
29 January 2020If you needed a sign that the cement industry has become serious about carbon capture it was the presence of two organisations offering CO2 transport and storage capacity in northern Europe at last week’s Innovation in Industrial Carbon Capture Conference 2020 (IICCC). Both Norway’s Northern Lights and the Rotterdam CCUS (Project Porthos) were busy at their stands during the event’s exhibition. Meanwhile, Cembureau, the European Cement Association, said that it will work on finding other potential storage sites for CO2 and on identifying existing gas pipelines that could be converted. The industry is planning what to do about CO2 transport and storage.
As with the previous IICCC event in 2018 the heart of the programme was the Low Emissions Intensity Lime And Cement (LEILAC) project. Since then Calix’s 60m tall pilot Direct Separation Calciner unit has been built at the HeidelbergCement cement plant in Lixhe and has been tested since mid-2019. Early results look promising, with CO2 separation occurring, calcined material produced and the tube structure and mechanical expansion holding up. Problems with thermocouples failing, blockages and recarbonation at the base of the tube have been encountered but these are being tackled in the de-bottlenecking phase. Testing will continue well into 2020 and plans for the next demonstration project at another cement plant in Europe are already moving ahead. LEILAC 2 will see industry partners Cimpor, Lhoist, Port of Rotterdam and IKN join Calix, HeidelbergCement and other research partners to work together on a larger 0.1Mt/yr CO2 separation pilot scheduled for completion in 2025.
Alongside this HeidelbergCement presented a convincing vision of a carbon neutral future for the cement industry at the IICCC 2020. It may not be what actually happens but the building materials producer has a clear plan across the lifecycle chain of cement. It is researching and testing a variety of methods to capture CO2 process emissions, is looking at supply chains and storage sites for the CO2 and is working on recycling concrete as aggregates and cementations material via recarbonation. In terms of carbon capture technology, an amine-based industrial scale CCS unit looks likely to be built at Norcem’s Brevik plant in the early 2020s. HeidelbergCement’s other joint-research projects – direct separation and oxyfuel – are further behind, at the pilot and pre-pilot stages respectively. Each technology looks set to offer progressively better and cheaper CO2 capture as they come on line.
Or put another way, cement companies in Europe could build industrial scale amine-based carbon (CC) capture plants now. Yet the game appears to be to wait until the cost of CCS falls through new technology versus the rising emissions trading scheme (ETS) price of CO2. CC is expected to become economically feasible in a decade’s time, sometime in the 2030s. At which point there might be an upgrade boom as plants are retrofitted with CC units or new production lines are commissioned. Other ways of reducing the cement industry’s CO2 emissions, of course, are being explored by other companies such as further reducing the clinker factor through the use of calcined clays (LC3 and others), solar reactor or electric-powered kilns and more.
The usual problem of how the construction industry can cope with a higher cost of cement was acknowledged at IICCC 2020 but it is largely being worked around. Higher priced cement poses competitive issues for specifiers and construction companies but it is widely expected to result in price rises below 5% for most residential end users. In the short-term government policy such as requiring low carbon cement in state building projects could stimulate the market. The start of this process can be seen already with the use of slag cements in various infrastructure projects.
Hans Bergman, Head Unit ETS Policy Development at the Directorate-General for Climate Action (DG Clima) partly addressed the cost issue by talking about the EU Green Deal. The EU wants to meet its new targets but it also wants to let gross domestic product (GDP) rise whilst greenhouse emissions fall. The EU ETS is its principle vehicle for this but the commission is wary of changes, such as making modifications linked to CCS, in case it undermines the system. Discussions are ongoing as the work on the Green Deal continues.
IICCC was a wider forum beyond just what LEILAC is up to. To this extent the CC projects involve multiple partners, including those from other cement companies like Cemex and Tarmac (CRH) in LEILAC and Dyckerhoff (Buzzi Unicem), Schwenk Zement and Vicat in the oxyfuel project. The decarbonisation fair included representatives from Vicat’s FastCarb project and Polimi’s Cleanker. Speakers from the European Climate Foundation, Acatech, INEA, TCM, SINTEF and Lhoist were also present.
During one speaker discussion Calix was described as the 'Tesla' of industrial CC by one speaker, who said that, “…there is a genuine competitive opportunity for those bold enough to grasp it.” Calix’s managing director Phil Hodgson enjoyed the accolade but the point was that leading innovation or setting the agenda offers advantages. In the case of industrial CC for the cement industry, change feels a step closer.
The visible lobbying work by Cembureau, the European cement association, has been building in recent months as it has started to tackle the European Green Deal. Last week’s move was its aim to align with the objectives of the new legislation. To this end it plans to review the targets from its 2050 Low Carbon Roadmap (2013/2018) to fit with what the European Commission’s (EC) policy initiatives are aiming to do. It intends to publish the new roadmap in the spring of 2020.
The immediate problem for the European cement industry is that the EC wants to pick up the pace. Before the Paris agreement in 2016 it was aiming for a 40% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 compared to 1990 levels. The overall target, remember, was an 80% reduction in emissions by 2050. However, the wording from the EC to the European Parliament about the Green Deal in December 2019 is now targeting carbon neutrality and the 2030 target has increased to ‘at least 50%’ and toward 55% in a ‘responsible way.’
To give readers an idea of the uphill battle facing the cement industry. Cembureau said it was on target in 2015 with a 14% reduction in emissions per tonne of cement produced from direct, indirect and transport sources. For comparison, gross CO2 emissions Cement Sustainability Initiative (CSI) data from the Global Cement & Concrete Association (GCCA) shows a 29% drop from 1990 to 2017 from Cembureau members. The EC now wants to make it even harder to meet the 2030 target.
The cement industry’s problem is that it is energy intensive and that making clinker releases CO2 (process emissions) as limestone is calcined. Cembureau’s roadmap offered multiple paths to its end goal including resource efficiency, energy efficiency, carbon sequestration and reuse, product efficiency. However, most of these things - like lower clinker factors, production efficiency use of alternative fuels, better transport efficiency and so on - only reach a reduction of a little below 35%. We should note here that great work has been achieved in all of these with Europe leading the way for many. The other 45% was intended to come from breakthrough technologies such as carbon capture and usage (CCU) and/or storage (CCS). Again, Europe has been leading the way worldwide with its various research and pilot projects. Yet, given that there are no commercial-level carbon capture installations at any cement plants in Europe in 2020, the EC is potentially cutting off the industry’s escape route to meet the 2030 deadline.
The EC gives the impression that it knows that energy intensive industries need help meeting the targets with the publication of its masterplan for energy-intensive Industries in November 2019. CCS, CCU, biomass, alternative binders to make cement, more efficient use of cement in concrete and the use of alternative fuels were all listed as being of in use of high potential to the sector. These are similar to Cembureau’s five paths on its roadmap. Incidentally, more recently Cembureau has been promoting its so-called 5C approach: clinker, cement, concrete, construction & built environment, and (re)carbonation. This is intended to initiate a wider debate across the construction industry supply chain along similar lines to the objectives in the roadmap. It also follows the general industry pivot towards concrete.
However, just one badly-considered measure from the legislators could scupper this. The new tax on refuse-derived fuel (RDF) imports in the Netherlands is one example of this. It potentially complicates alternative fuels markets in Europe. Another, more subtle risk that Cembureau warned of in December 2019, was of the EC’s intent to propose a carbon border adjustment mechanism to reduce the risk of carbon leakage. Its argument was that a new untested scheme could create uncertainty in an industry already at risk being replaced by production capacity outside of the EU.
So now we wait to see how many more reductions Cembureau can squeeze out of its revised roadmap in the spring. It may be able to gain more from its existing measures or offset emissions more widely along the construction chain. Whether it does or does not though the bulk of emissions reduction needs to come from the continued research, testing and implementation of novel technologies like CCU/S. CCS also needs help setting up the infrastructure to move CO2 to the storage sites. To this end the EU heavy industry expert group says that developing large-scale pilot projects on ‘clean’ technologies should be supported with EU funds and by easier access to private financing. The ongoing question is how and when can this funding be unlocked? The answer is far from clear.
2019 in cement
18 December 2019It’s the end of the year so it’s time to look at trends in the sector news over the last 12 months. It’s also the end of a decade, so for a wider perspective check out the feature in the December 2019 issue of Global Cement Magazine. The map of shifting production capacity and the table of falling CO2 emissions per tonne are awesome and inspiring in their own way. They also point towards the successes and dangers facing the industry in the next decade.
Back on 2019 here are some of the main themes of the year in the industry news. This is a selective list but if we missed anything crucial let us know.
European multinationals retreat
LafargeHolcim left the Philippines, Malaysia and Indonesia, HeidelbergCement sold up in Ukraine and reduced its stake in Morocco and CRH is reportedly making plans to leave the Philippines and India, if local media speculation can be believed. To be fair to HeidelbergCement it has also instigated some key acquisitions here and there, but there definitely has been a feel of the multinationals cutting their losses in certain places and retreating that bit closer to their heartlands.
CRH’s chief executive officer Albert Manifold summed it up an earnings meeting when he said, “…you're faced with a capital allocation decision of investing in Europe or North America where you've got stability, certainty, overlap, capability, versus going for something a bit more exotic. The returns you need to generate to justify that higher level of risk are extraordinary and we just don't see it.”
The battle for the European Green Deal
One battle that’s happening right now is the lobbying behind the scenes for so-called energy-intensive industries in Europe as part of the forthcoming European Green Deal. The cement industry is very aware that it is walking a tightrope on this one. The European Union (EU) Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) CO2 price started to bite in 2019, hitting a high of Euro28/t in August 2019 and plant closures have been blamed on it. The rhetoric from Ursula von der Leyen, the new president of the European Commission, has been bullish on climate legislation and the agitation of Greta Thunberg internationally and groups like Extinction Rebellion has kept the issue in the press. Cembureau, the European Cement Association, is keen to promote the industry’s sustainability credentials but it is concerned that aspects of the proposed deal will create ‘uncertainty and risks.’ Get it wrong and problems like the incoming ban on refuse-derived fuel (RDF) imports into the Netherlands may proliferate. What the Green Deal ends up as could influence the European cement industry for decades.
The managed march of China
Last’s week article on a price spike in Henan province illustrated the tension in China between markets and government intervention. It looks like this was driven by an increase in infrastructure spending with cement sales starting to rise. Cement production growth has also picked up in most provinces in the first three quarters of 2019. This follows a slow fall in cement sales over the last five years as state measures such as consolidation and peak shifting have been implemented. The government dominates the Chinese market and this extends west, as waste importers have previously found out to their cost.
Meanwhile, the Chinese industry has continued to grow internationally. Rather than buying existing assets it has tended to build its own plants, often in joint ventures with junior local partners. LafargeHolcim may have left Indonesia in 2018 but perhaps the real story was Anhui Conch's becoming the country's third biggest producer by local capacity. Coupled with the Chinese dominance in the supplier market this has meant that most new plant projects around the world are either being built by a Chinese company or supplied by one.
India consolidates but watches dust levels
Consolidation has been the continued theme in the world's second largest cement industry, with the auction for Emami Cement and UltraTech Cement’s acquisition of Century Textiles and Industries. Notably, UltraTech Cement has decided to focus its attention on only India despite the overseas assets it acquired previously. Growth in cement sales in the second half of 2019 has slowed and capacity utilisation rates remain low. Indian press reports that CRH is considering selling up. Together with the country's low per capita cement consumption this suggests a continued trend for consolidation for the time being.
Environmental regulations may also play a part in rationalising the local industry, as has already happened in China. The Indian government considered banning petcoke imports in 2018 in an attempt to decrease air pollution. Later, in mid-2019, a pilot emissions trading scheme (ETS) for particulate matter (PM) was launched in Surat, Gujarat. At the same time the state pollution boards have been getting tough with producers for breaching their limits.
Steady growth in the US
The US market has been a dependable one over the last year, generally propping up the balance sheets of the multinational producers. Cement shipments grew in the first eight months of the year with increases reported in the North-Eastern and Southern regions. Imports also mounted as the US-China trade war benefitted Turkey and Mexico at the expense of China. Alongside this a modest trade in cement plants has been going on with upgrades also underway. Ed Sullivan at the Portland Cement Association forecasts slowing growth in the early 2020s but he doesn’t think a recession is coming anytime soon.
Mixed picture in Latin America
There have been winners and losers south of the Rio Grande in 2019. Mexico was struggling with lower government infrastructure spending hitting cement sales volumes in the first half of the year although US threats to block exports haven’t come to pass so far. Far to the south Argentina’s economy has been holding the cement industry back leading to a 7% fall in cement sales in the first 11 months of the year. Both of these countries’ travails pale in comparison to Venezuela’s estimated capacity utilisation of just 12.5%. There have been bright spots in the region though with Brazil’s gradual return to growth in 2019. The November 2019 figures suggest sales growth of just under 4% for the year. Peru, meanwhile, continues to shine with continued production and sales growth.
North and south divide in Africa and the Middle East
The divide between the Middle East and North African (MENA) and Sub-Saharan regions has grown starker as more MENA countries have become cement exporters, particularly in North Africa. The economy in Turkey has held back the industry there and the sector has pivoted to exports, Egypt remains beset by overcapacity and Saudi Arabian producers have continued to renew their clinker export licences.
South of the Sahara key countries, including Nigeria, Kenya and South Africa, have suffered from poor sales due to a variety of reasons, including competition and the local economies. Other countries with smaller cement industries have continued to propose and build new plants as the race to reduce the price of cement in the interior drives change.
Changes in shipping regulations
One of the warning signs that flashed up at the CemProspects conference this year was the uncertainty surrounding the new International Maritime Organistaion (IMO) 2020 environmental regulations for shipping. A meeting of commodity traders for fuels for the cement industry would be expected to be wary of this kind of thing. Their job is to minimise the risk of fluctuating fuel prices for their employers after all. Yet, given that the global cement industry produces too much cement, this has implications for the clinker and cement traders too. This could potentially affect the price of fuels, input materials and clinker if shipping patterns change. Ultimately, IMO 2020 comes down to enforcement but already ship operators have to decide whether and when to act.
Do androids dream of working in cement plants?
There’s a been a steady drip of digitisation stories in the sector news this year, from LafargeHolcim’s Industry 4.0 plan to Cemex’s various initiatives and more. At present the question appears to be: how far can Industry 4.0 / internet of things style developments go in a heavy industrial setting like cement? Will it just manage discrete parts of the process such as logistics and mills or could it end up controlling larger parts of the process? Work by companies like Petuum show that autonomous plant operation is happening but it’s still very uncertain whether the machines will replace us all in the 2020s.
On that cheery note - enjoy the winter break if you have one.
Global Cement Weekly will return on 8 January 2020
The effects of CO2 regulation on cement production
04 September 2019Forgive the poor image quality but our magazine editor Peter Edwards spotted this provocative graphic (above) at the Federación Interamericana del Cemento (FICEM) technical congress that is taking place in the Dominican Republic this week. It came from a presentation given by Yassine Touahri from On Field Investment Research. The reason this slide raises eyebrows is because it seems to inversely link CO2 emission regulations with cement grinding capacity growth.
One would expect integrated or clinker production capacity addition to decline in the face of various carbon taxes because the majority of emissions in cement production are process emissions. Yet this graphic suggests that it goes further by affecting the supply of clinker in these regions. If correct then it supports the argument that introducing carbon taxes forces related capacity investment to go elsewhere. In other words, if governments try to control industrial CO2 emissions, then the market will follow the path of least resistance. The world has a clinker production capacity surplus and the countries with no CO2 regulations are scooping it up.
The counter argument is that capacity growth and CO2 legislation is unrelated. The regions with flat or falling grinding capacity additions are the places were this trend is occurring anyway for other reasons. These areas have built their houses and infrastructure and so one would expect no or low capacity growth. In this environment it is easier to introduce CO2 laws because, rightly or wrongly, it is perceived to be less important to the overall economy. Meanwhile, outside of these zones national economies are growing: they want to build things and new grinding plants to take advantage of a global glut of clinker are helping them to do this.
Other issues with this graphic are the widely different reasons for low cement grinding capacity growth in the areas with CO2 legislation. Europe, for example, has endured the European Union (EU) Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) for over a decade and it has seen growth in the slag-cement grinding model in some countries in recent years. General trends have also seen a considerable drop in production capacity in Southern Mediterranean countries as their export markets decline. China is actively trying to manage a reduction in production capacity following a period of unparalleled growth. CO2 legislation is one potential means to do this.
The next step here would be to model the effect of a carbon tax on a developing market, which is genuinely growing its cement consumption, compared to a more mature one. This might help to answer whether economic development can be untangled from carbon emissions. CO2 regulations are undoubtedly distorting cement markets though. Touahri is right when he says that, “CO2 management will be the key challenge for the cement industry in the 21st century.” Once it is given a value then it changes the nature of the business.
There will be a full review of the FICEM technical congress 2019 in a future issue of Global Cement Magazine
Refuse-derived legislation in the Netherlands?
17 July 2019The UK waste fuels industry is facing potential challenge from changing Dutch environmental legislation. As part of its new National Climate Agreement the government in the Netherlands is considering imposing a tariff of Euro32/t on imported refuse-derived fuel (RDF) from the start of January 2020. It also wants to add a CO2 tax of Euro30/t on industrial emitters from the start of 2021.
This is bad news for the UK’s waste export market because 1.28Mt or 44% of exported waste fuels from the UK in 2018 went to the Netherlands. The majority of this was RDF. That was more than the next two biggest destinations, Sweden and Germany, combined. Andy Hill of Cynosure Partners summed up the UK situation in the June 2019 issue of Global Cement Magazine when he said, “The UK generates more far more waste than it has landfill, recycling and alternative fuel capacity combined. Quite simply, that’s why the UK exports and has become a leading force in Europe in terms of RDF and solid recovered fuel (SRF) exports.”
Graph 1: International Waste Shipments exported from England, 2011 – 2018. Source: UK Environment Agency.
Graph 2: Destinations of English waste fuels exports in 2018. Source: UK Environment Agency.
Waste management companies and their representative associations on both sides of the North Sea are not taking this terribly well. Robert Corijn, chair of the RDF Industry Group, a European waste organisation, summed up his members response by pointing out both the environmental cost of the new legislation and the risk to jobs in the UK. “RDF export forms a vital and flexible part of the UK’s waste management system, supporting over 6800 additional jobs in the UK, and saving over 0.7Mt/yr CO2e emissions.” Robert Loos of the Dutch Waste Management Association made a similar response questioning what exactly the Dutch government was attempting to achieve.
Steve Burton, one of the directors of UK-fuels producer Andusia, went further by saying that the Dutch had proposed the move on environmental grounds because it has an incineration capacity of 8Mt/yr but produces only 6Mt/yr of waste. “So they think that by setting a tax it will significantly curtail how much gets incinerated in the Netherlands and thus produce less CO2. All very sensible if you consider CO2 in isolation in your own country. However, the Dutch Government aren’t looking at the bigger picture…” He then went on to point out that the RDF would then either get burnt elsewhere or landfilled resulting in no overall CO2 emissions reduction. His further assessment, which you can read here, goes on to speculate amongst other things that Dutch Energy for Waste (EFW) plants could end up having to cut their gate fees by more than the import tariff in order to keep running. The state-owned EFW plants would then made a loss for the tax payers until the market stabilised. It should be noted that the data from the Environment Agency indicates that Andusia exported just under 38,000t of RDF to the Netherlands in 2018.
The more prickly issues of using waste fuels may prove tricky for Dutch legislators. Corijn’s distinction above of using CO2e for the savings from RDF usage is important in this argument since burning RDF and alternative fuels, either for generating energy or making cement, still releases CO2. In the European Union (EU) it’s the biomass fraction of RDF that’s important for the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) and the like because biomass emissions are counted as carbon-neutral. Remove this effect and the benefit of waste fuels are more to do with the waste hierarchy and reusing materials rather than leaving them to rot and release methane, a gas with a more potent global warming effect than CO2. Despite this, at face value, importing rubbish and then burning it to release yet more unwanted CO2 may seem nonsensical to the parliamentarians. Perhaps the other thing they should consider is that waste-derived fuels are manufactured products to set specifications. On-going arguments around the world about the developed world ‘exporting its rubbish’ frequently ignore this point.
Since the new Dutch National Climate Agreement is currently at the proposal stage it has a long way to go before it becomes law. First it has to be turned into legislation and then this has to be approved by the Dutch Parliament. As indicated so far the waste management industry will continue to fight its corner with vigour.
Dust matters in India
12 June 2019There was a glimmer of good news visible through the Delhi smog this week with the launch of a market-based emissions trading scheme (ETS) for particulate matter (PM). A pilot has started at Surat in Gujarat. The scheme will apply to 350 industries in the locality and it will be scrutinised for wider rollout in the country.
China robustly started to tackle its industrial PM emitters a few years ago although the work remains on-going. In its wake India has increasingly made the wrong sort of headlines with horrifically high dust emissions. Delhi, for example, reportedly had PM2.5 emissions of over 440µg/m3 in January 2019. To give this some context, the World Health Organisation’s (WHO) annual upper guideline figure for safe human exposure is 10µg/m3. Research by the Financial Times newspaper suggested that more than 40% of the Indian population is subject to annual PM2.5 emissions of over 50µg/m3.
Air Quality Life Index (AQLI) research reckons that if India were able to meet its national PM2.5 standard of 40µg/m3 then its population would live 1.8 years longer or 4.3 years longer if it met the WHO guideline level. The current situation is an unnecessary tragedy. In strictly structural terms the country’s productivity is being thrown away by damaging the health of its workforce. For comparison amongst other major cement producing countries, AQLI data placed China’s PM2.5 emissions at 39µg/m3, Indonesia at 22µg/m3, Vietnam at 20µg/m3 the US at 9µg/m3. These figures cover all industries in different conditions and climates. If the US can do it, why not the others?
Back on trading schemes, the famous ETS at the moment is the European one for CO2 emissions. Similar schemes are slowly appearing around the world as governments look at what the European Union (EU) did right and wrong. For example, South Africa started up a carbon tax in early June 2019. Yet as the supporting documents by the Gujarat Pollution Control Board (GPCB) point out there have been a variety of ETS systems’ over the years. The US’s Acid Rain Program is generally seen to have achieved significant reductions in SO2 and NOx emissions although the National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants (NESHAP) has continued this work. Chile even ran its own PM ETS in the 1990s although the outcomes have been disputed.
One problem with a CO2 ETS, and anthropomorphic or man-made climate change in general, is that it is intangible. Even if sea levels deluge major coastal cities, rising mean temperatures reduce agricultural yields and human populations contract sharply, people will still be arguing over the research and the causes. The beauty of a PM ETS is that if it works you can literally see and feel the results. A famous example here is the UK’s Clean Air Act in the 1950s that banished the fog/smog that London used to be famous for.
The Gujarat PM ETS is a pilot, the results of which will be considered by researchers from a number of US-based universities and the Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab. Explicitly, the study plans to use a randomised control trial to compares its results against the command and control style approach used in the rest of the country. On the cement-side various Indian news stories have emerged as state pollution boards have increasingly started fining producers for emission limit breaches. Clearly the government is taking dust emissions seriously. Reduction is long overdue.
India: The state of Gujarat has launched a market-based cap-and-trade system in particulate matter to reduce air pollution. It says it is the first such initiative in the world. The project is being piloted in Surat with the aim to expanding it nationally subsequently.
“With this program, we are kicking off a new era of cleaner production, while lowering industry compliance costs and rewarding plants that cut pollution in low-cost ways,” said Rajiv Kumar Gupta IAS, chairman of the Gujarat Pollution Control Board (GPCB). The GPCB is carrying out the emissions trading program with the help of a team of researchers from the Energy Policy Institute at the University of Chicago (EPIC), the Evidence for Policy Design at Harvard Kennedy School, the Economic Growth Center at Yale University and the Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab. The researchers are evaluating the program’s benefits and costs, relative to the status quo, using a randomised controlled trial.
The emissions trading program builds on work by the GPCB in using continuous emissions monitoring systems to track industry emissions in real time. About 350 industries around Surat have installed continuous emissions monitoring systems and now transmit real-time emissions data. The new scheme takes advantage of this technology for its monitoring.
Cement plays the waiting game
29 May 2019There were two main takeaways from the Global Future Cement Conference that took place in Brussels last week. Firstly, there are not any obvious alternatives to using cement and concrete. Secondly, serious at-scale commercial investment on capturing CO2 process emissions from clinker production is still waiting for the right economic conditions.
Graph 1: Embodied energy versus embodied CO2 of building materials. Source: Hammond & Jones, University of Bath, UK.
Although the conference was heavily focused on Europe, the graph above explains why the cement and concrete industries are sitting pretty right now in the face of mounting environmental activism. The sector may be responsible for 5 - 10% of annual CO2 emissions but, put bluntly, there is simply no alternative. As Karen Scrivner from the Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL) explained during her presentation, concrete uses some of the most abundant minerals present on earth, notably silicon and calcium. Alternative chemistries are simply not backed up by available materials. The cement and concrete associations have strongly promoted the unique position by focusing on the whole lifecycle of building materials.
The energy and emissions research needs to be scrutinised much more closely but, if it’s correct, there is no way to maintain modern standards of living without concrete. And, judging from the response by the French public to a badly handled meagre carbon tax on diesel by the so-called Yellow Vest movement, whacking up the price of housing or infrastructure might go down badly, especially in developing countries.
Two immediate ‘outs’ presents themselves. Cement doesn't necessarily have to be made from clinker as Robert McCaffrey’s presentation reinforced (also given at the IEEE/IAS-PCA Cement Conference this year). Future research may find alternatives to clinker and wipe out the cement business in the process. Also, the graph above is based on per kilogramme amounts of each building material. It doesn’t indicate how much of each material is required to build things. Even if clinker-based building materials are irreplaceable, there is no reason why their market share might not decrease. This could have large consequences in a market already burdened by over-capacity.
Graph 2: Comparison of cost of carbon capture technology for the cement industry. Source: European Cement Research Academy (ECRA).
Solid research into carbon capture technology is proceeding apace, from the LEILAC project at HeidelbergCement’s Lixhe plant, to oxyfuel kiln development and other methods, as Jan Theulen from HeidelbergCement demonstrated in his presentation. Off-the-shelf technologies from other industries also exist ready to be used. Today, for example, Inventys has announced plans to test its own CO2 capture technology with Lafarge Canada. Yet there are no commercial-scale installations in Europe. most likely due to the price burden it would place on the end product.
With the European Union (EU) Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) entering its fourth phase and the carbon price holding above Euro20/t the question is: when will the serious investment begin in Europe? Notably, more than a few major European cement equipment manufacturers attended the Global Future Cement Conference, yet none are offering mature products to capture CO2 emissions. Most or all have projects up their sleeves ready to be developed and sold but orders aren’t being received. The carbon price in Europe is the problem here. If it's too low then nothing happens outside of government subsidy. Too high and cement plants start being shut down because they become too expensive to run. To be fair to the cement sector other carbon emission mitigation strategies are being employed from alternative fuels usage to lowering the clinker factor and other methods but the endgame is based on reducing process emissions.
The challenge for the cement and concrete industry is to show legislators that their materials are essential and irreplaceable. They are doing this. The legislators then need to concoct ways of encouraging mass scale rollout of carbon emissions abatement technology without destroying the cement industry. This is far from certain right now. If nothing else it’s in governments’ interest to get this right because, as the Yellow Vest protests show, if they get it wrong their voters become angry. All of this is happening against the clock as CCU/S is required to get the cement industry past the 2050 2°C maximum warming target set by the Paris Agreement. In the meantime the cement industry is essentially in a holding position on the more far-reaching aspects of CO2 emissions mitigation. Its products are likely irreplaceable but its carbon capture technology has to be encouraged by governments. This means that, for most cement producers, waiting to see what happens next is the way forward.
The 3rd Future Cement Conference and Exhibition is scheduled to take place in Vienna, Austria in 2021