Displaying items by tag: HeidelbergCement

A couple of long-running news stories popped up this week, led by the Portland Cement Association’s (PCA) latest forecast for the US market. Chief economist Ed Sullivan and the Market Intelligence Group predict slowing cement consumption growth to 2020 as the recovery period ends following the financial crash in 2008. The background to this is an expected rise in interest rates dragging on the construction market, a limited boost from the Trump administration’s tax cuts and rising debt levels hitting federal infrastructure spending.

This marks an abrupt turnaround from the PCA’s April 2018 forecast in which potential federal infrastructure spending was anticipated to kick in towards the end of 2019 creating 4% growth in 2020. To give the PCA credit, it did say at the time that this was contingent on a couple of key steps, including passage of an infrastructure bill, federal and state paperwork, bid letting and review and finally, contract awards leading to construction. Following the US mid-term elections in early November 2018 the prospect of an infrastructure bills seems remoter than before given the political differences between the US House of Representatives and the Senate. This may have been the final straw for the PCA and it adapted its forecast accordingly.

Graph 1: Cement shipments in the US, January – August 2013 - January – August 2018. Source: Portland Cement Association (PCA).

It is also worth reflecting on the third quarter financial results of the multinational cement producers over the last few weeks. CRH may have been crowing this week about how its US performance was driving its business in the wake of its acquisition of Ash Grove Cement and other assets, but many of the other multinational cement producers weren’t. HeidelbergCement, Buzzi Unicem and Titan all blamed the weather in the US for dragging on their results. LafargeHolcim said it suffered less with a ‘soft’ first quarter in 2018 followed by recovery.

The other story this week with relevance to the US was the continued speculation in the Canadian press about the future of the McInnis Cement plant in Quebec. The latest update is that the plant’s shareholders have asked the provincial government if they can swap the debt the province holds in the venture for equity. This has been seen as a potential bid to keep the company operational while it continues to hunt for a buyer. Rumours of a sale have swirled around since the start of 2018, with the Global and Mail newspaper naming HeidelbergCement as being potentially interested. Three bids have been reportedly made by unnamed parties but they were rejected for being too low. A slowing US cement market is particularly bad news for McInnis Cement. The plant is situated on the Atlantic Coast of Canada and exports to the US have been seen as a major part of its business. To this end it officially opened its marine terminal in the Bronx, New York in October 2018.

The main US market needs to find an alternative to the ‘fabled’ infrastructure bill if it wants better growth. Yet, reduced US cement consumption growth won’t help McInnis’ shareholders recoup the money they have sunk in the project. Somebody seems certain to lose in this situation and, with a protectionist incumbent in the White House, it seems likely to be somebody north of the border.

Romania: The Competition Council has launched an investigation into an alleged anti-competitive agreement between Holcim, CRH and HeidelbergCement in early November 2018. It is concerned that there has been possible coordination of prices between the companies since 2010. As part of the probe, it conducted raids at the headquarters of the three companies and seized documentation. It has warned that fines of up to 10% of company turnover are applicable should it find any evidence of collusion. However, it also mentioned that companies that cooperated with the competition authority could expect leniency in the form of immunity to or reduced fines.

Canada: Quebec's Ministry of Economy and Innovation has confirmed that it has received a request from the shareholders of McInnis Cement to swap the debt the province holds in the venture for equity. A request has been made to the ministry and to Investissement Québec, the provincial government's investment arm, to convert almost US$200m of debt into shares in the cement producer, according to the Globe and Mail newspaper. The newspaper speculates that an arrangement of this kind could be part of a potential deal with creditors to reduce the company’s liabilities and enable it to continue to operate.

McInnis Cement’s plant at Port-Daniel–Gascons was inaugurated in mid-2017. Construction at the site started in mid-2014. However, cost overruns saw the government-backed project delayed and then taken over by an investor, the Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec (CDPQ), a pension and insurance fund manager. The CDPQ was reportedly considering options including selling the plant or securing more investment in early 2018. Three bids were made for the cement producer but were rejected as being too low, according to reporting by the Globe and Mail. Interested parties in the company included Germany’s HeidelbergCement.

Germany: Poor weather in the US and rising energy prices have reduced HeidelbergCement’s earnings so far in 2018. Its result from current operations before depreciation and amortisation (RCOBD) fell by 7% year-on-year to Euro2.23bn in the first nine months of 2018 from Euro2.41bn in the same period in 2017. Despite this, its revenue rose by 3% to Euro13.4bn from Euro13bn and its sales volumes of cement grew by 4% to 97Mt from 93.5Mt. By region, revenue rose in all regions except for North America, but RCOBD fell in Western and Southern Europe, North America and Asia-Pacific.

“Improved financial costs and lower taxes overcompensated weaker than expected results from current operations due to significant rainfalls in our core markets in the USA as well as a higher than planned energy cost inflation,” said Bernd Scheifele, chairman of the managing board of HeidelbergCement. He added that, “Due to the weaker operational development, we had to partially adapt our outlook for 2018. As a countermeasure we have initiated an action plan with focus on three levers: portfolio optimisation, operational excellence as well as cash flow and shareholder return.”

HeidelbergCement is set to release its third quarter financial results later this week. In the meantime what can the results from the other major cement producers tell us?

Graph 1: Revenue from major cement producers, Q1 -3 2018. Source: Company reports.

The biggest of the big beasts, China National Building Material (CNBM), released its third quarter update last week. As usual for a major Chinese producer it was the expected story of continuing double-digit growth. Operating income up, profit up and little other information besides.

CNBM’s half-year report back in August 2018 had more information, revealing that cement production volume fell by 5% year-on-year to 143Mt in the first half of 2018 from 150Mt in the same period in 2017. This was pinned on ‘flat’ demand, increased pressure on environmental protection and rising costs of fuel and raw materials. As we mentioned at the time the state-owned company is attempting to cope with the aftermath of China’s great construction boom. National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data shows that local cement sales dropped by 8% year-on-year to 158Mt in the first nine months of 2018. CNBM’s cement sales are likely to have dropped also so far in 2018 but continuing industry consolidation and/or the merger with Sinoma may save them. With this in mind note the lack of sales volumes figures from CNBM and Anhui Conch in Graph 2 below.

Graph 2: Cement sales volumes by major cement producers, Q1 -3 2018. Source: Company reports.

Of the other larger Chinese producers, Anhui Conch’s third quarter report was similarly sparse, sticking to the facts (revenue and profit up) and discussing in more detail a recent large-scale sale and purchase agreement with Jiangsu Conch Building Materials with a value of up to around US$230m. China Resources Cement is typically more verbose in its results releases. Its turnover and profits are also up so far in 2018 but it actually explained that cement and clinker prices had risen by 32%.

Outside of China, LafargeHolcim’s results were mixed in a direct year-on-year comparison but more favourable on a like-for-like basis. Net sales and cement sales volumes are growing slowly but recurring earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) fell very slightly. Growth in Europe and North America was countered by issues in Asia Pacific, Latin America and Middle East Africa. Chief executive Jan Jenisch was more optimistic than at the same point in 2017 with no talk of ‘lacking potential’ and more emphasis on ‘positive momentum.’

As for the others, both Cemex and UltraTech Cement are looking good so far. Growth in Mexico and the US has bolstered Cemex’s performance giving, it a 7% year-on-year boost to US$10.9bn in the first nine months of 2018. Cement sales volumes grew more slowly at 3%, although operating EBITDA remained flat. Part of this was down to poorer markets south of Mexico, notably in Colombia. UltraTech Cement is still looking good after its acquisition of Jaiprakash Associates’ plants in 2017 but earnings and profits have started to decline. The Indian market leader has blamed this on mounting energy and logistics costs coupled with local currency depreciation effects.

So, in summary, generally good news from the big producers, although issues are present in certain markets, notably South America. HeidelbergCement has already set the scene for its third quarter results with a warning that its earnings are down due to poor weather in the US and rising energy costs. Sales volumes and revenue are said to be ‘within expectations.’ Its Indian subsidiary, HeidelbergCement India, reported storming figures for its half-year to the end of September 2018 with double-digit growth across sales, sales volumes and earnings. Less reassuringly, its larger Indonesian subsidiary reported falling sales for the first nine months of 2018. All eyes will be on HeidelbergCement later in the week to see how this plays out.

Egypt: The shareholders of Helwan Cement have approved the sale of its white cement plant in Minya Governorate to Emmar Industries. Helwan Cement, a 99.5% subsidiary owned by HeidelbergCement and Suez Cement, previously said that the sale was part of its plan to restructure the business and improve its financial position.

Indonesia: Indocement’s sales revenue rose by 2% year-on-year to US$713m in the first nine months of 2018 from US$696m in the same period in 2017. However, its operating income fell by nearly a third to US$35m from US$97m. The subsidiary of Germany’s HeidlebergCement reported that its cost of sales rose in the reporting period.

Ukraine: HeidelbergCement has signed a contract with Italy’s CTP Team to upgrade its Kryvyi Rih plant. The project includes replacing the existing filtering system and relevant dust handling for drying drum four. CTP Team will supply a new baghouse equipped with SWAP technology for the cleaning of bags with low-pressure compressed air. The new filter is intended to comply with new local environmental regulations. It will be designed specifically to fit with the existing electrostatic precipitator housing. No value for the deal has been disclosed.

India: HeidelbergCement India’s half-year results have benefitted from improved markets in building materials in central India including Uttar Pradesh. Its sales volumes of cement rose by 10.5% year-on-year to 2.39Mt in the six months to the end of September 2018 from 2.17Mt in the same period in 2017. Its revenue rose by 19.4% to US$138m from US$116m. Earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) increased by 47% to US$32.1m from US$21.9m.

The subsidiary of Germany’s HeidelbergCement said that although fuel prices rose in the latest quarter this was offset by a waste heat recovery system. The company operates two integrated plants and one grinding plant with a cement production capacity of 5.4Mt/yr.

Germany: HeidelbergCement has warned that its result from current operations before depreciation will be lower than expected so far in 2018 due to poor weather in the US and rising energy costs. It maintained that its sales volumes and revenue for the first nine months of 2018 would be ‘within expectations.’ The building materials company also reassured investors that its group share of profit for 2018 would also be as expected. It will release its results for the third quarter of 2018 on 8 November 2018.