Displaying items by tag: Hindenburg Research

Many readers will be aware that Gautam Adani was accused of fraud by a US court this week. In a brief statement, Adani Group said that the allegations were “baseless and denied.” The indictment relates to a solar power project, but what does this mean for Adani Group’s cement businesses?

The charges by the US Department of Justice allege, following an investigation, that Gautam Adani, Sagar Adani and Vneet Jaain, executives of India-based renewable-energy company Indian Energy Company, committed “...securities and wire fraud and substantive securities fraud for their roles in a multi-billion-dollar scheme to obtain funds from US investors and global financial institutions on the basis of false and misleading statements.” A number of other individuals have also been accused, along with the two Adanis and Jaain, of participating in a US$250m bribery scheme to Indian government officials connected to a large-scale solar energy project. The indictment related to the period 2020 - 2024 and further alleges on several occasions that “Gautam Adani personally met with an Indian government official to advance the bribery scheme.” The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has also started a connected civil case.

The problem here is that the indictment has rocked the value of Adani Group’s subsidiaries and reduced the credit ratings of some of them. This in turn will make it harder for these companies to raise money in the future for expansion. Various reports in the media said that the group’s companies had lost something in the region of US$30bn as stock prices fell by around 20%. They have since rallied somewhat. And lest we forget, Adani Group has some serious expansion plans. In the cement sector, it is targeting a production capacity of 140Mt/ yr by 2028. Recent transactions include Ambuja Cement’s purchase of Penna Cement for US$1.25bn in August 2024 and a planned acquisition announced in October 2024 of a 47% stake in Orient Cement for US$451m. The group was also linked in the local media to a bid to buy Heidelberg Materials’ India-based business in October 2024.

All of this comes with a price. International credit ratings agency S&P put Adani Ports, Adani Green Energy and Adani Electricity on a downgrade warning. Then, Fitch Ratings and Moody’s followed. Moody’s, for example, downgraded its outlook for seven Adani Group companies to ‘negative’ from ‘stable’ but it affirmed ratings on them. It commented that the allegations “could have a broader credit impact on all rated Adani group issuers” and that they would “likely weaken the Adani group’s access to funding and increase its capital costs.” It added that its actions recognised “...the possibility of broader weaknesses in the governance structure across the rated Adani group entities as well as potential operational disruptions, including on their capital-spending plans, while legal proceedings are going.” The decision by the ratings agencies does not appear to have directly affected Adani Group’s cement companies, Ambuja Cements or ACC, so far. The group may get lucky here given that these companies focus on the domestic market. Thus their credit ratings may remain more buoyant, regardless of what happens next.

As with a number of other global issues at the moment, the outcome of the recent US presidential election may also play into this case. Attorney Ravi Batra told the Press Trust of India that the incoming Trump administration might view the Adani charges as so-called ‘lawfare.’ This is where legal processes are used to target a nation’s economic or other opponents. In addition the current chair of the SEC, Gary Gensler, announced his intention to step down from the role in January 2025. It seems unlikely that the Trump administration might intervene in a legal case involving a foreign company accused defrauding US citizens but the possibility of realpolitik playing a role shouldn’t be totally discounted.

This is the second major international scandal overhanging Adani Group since the disclosures by Hindenburg Research back in early 2023. Those allegations were relatively easy to shrug off given that its accuser was an investment research firm with a reputation for using its findings for short selling shares. Hindenburg Research was not a neutral bystander. This time round, the US judicial system has become involved and the consequences are bigger both reputationally and from any potential legal outcome. In the short term, the credit implications for Adani Group as a whole are becoming apparent. Various companies and countries have stalled or cancelled planned investments. However, the cement business is smaller than the group’s power and transport concerns. It also operates domestically. We’ll have to wait and see what the wider implications for Adani Group are. The first thing to watch for the cement business will be any effect on its expansion plans.

India: The Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP) has obtained documents which allegedly show how two people with close ties to the owners of Adani Group invested significantly in the group. Nasser Ali Shaban Ahli and Chang Chung-Ling traded in Adani Group shares through a Mauritius-based investment fund. The OCCRP reports that Ahli and Chang might be found to have been acting on behalf of Adani promoters. If so, their shareholding would bring insider investment in Adani Group to over 75%. This would potentially indicate stock manipulation under Indian law. Ahli and Changs’ investment management company reportedly paid a company owned by Vinod Adani, the brother of Adani Group chair Gautam Adani, for investment advice.

Nasser Ali Shaban Ahli is a Dubai-based business consultant, who is listed as an officer in a British Virgin Islands-based securities investment firm linked to Adani Group. Meanwhile, China-based Chang Chung-Ling has held positions on the boards of multiple Adani Group companies.

Adani Group replied “Contrary to your claim of new evidence/proofs, these are nothing but a rehash of unsubstantiated allegations levelled in the Hindenburg report. Our response to the Hindenburg report is available on our website. Suffice it to state that there is neither any truth to nor any basis for making any of the said allegations against the Adani Group and its promoters, and we expressly reject all of them."

India: ACC says that it will not carry out an independent investigation into its parent company Adani Group. US-based short-seller Hindenburg Research accused the group of stock manipulation and accounting fraud involving a 'labyrinthine network' of shell companies in January 2023. Prior to making its accusations, Hindenburg Research obtained a short position on Adani Group. An investigation into Adani Group's activities by the Securities and Exchange Board of India will conclude on 14 August 2023. Filings have also been submitted to the Supreme Court of India.

The Business Standard newspaper has reported that ACC said "Pending final outcome of regulatory investigations and related proceedings, the company has decided to not carry out any separate independent investigation in the matter, and the financial results do not carry any adjustments in this regard." It added "The expert committee submitted its report in the matter dated 6 May 2023, finding no regulatory failure."

Adani Group's original rebuttal of the allegations can be read online here.

India/US: The US Attorney's Office has requested that large Adani Group shareholders submit correspondence from the group. Reuters has reported that the office is investigating representations made by India-based Adani to its US investors, following fraud allegations by US-based short-seller Hindenburg Research.

An Adani Group spokesperson said "We are not aware of any such subpoena to investors."

India: Adani Group is in talks with lenders to repay a US$500m bridging loan facility it used to buy controlling stakes in ACC and Ambuja Cements in 2022. Adani is looking to repay the loan with cash during February 2023, according to the Economic Times. The loan was underwritten by Barclays, Deutsche Bank and Standard Chartered. The financial consortium lending to Adani also includes DBS, MUFG, Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp, First Abu Dhabi Bank, Intesa and Mizuho.

The Economic Times’ report comes a day after the group said its companies face no material refinancing risk or near-term liquidity issues, in its latest attempt to calm investors spooked by Hindenburg Research’s critical report on its business practices.

India: Adani Group has issued a rebuttal against a recent report by Hindenburg Research accusing it of accounting fraud and stock manipulation. In the 413-page rebuttal, the group identifies the report as a 'calculated attack on India.' Adani Group clarified that that its operations complied with 'all local laws' and that it had made necessary regulatory disclosures, according to the group.

BBC News has reported that Hindenburg Research denied the accusation of anti-Indian sentiment, calling the country an 'emerging superpower with an exciting future.' Hindenburg Research said "India's future is being held back by the Adani Group, which has draped itself in the Indian flag while systematically looting the nation."

Hindenburg Research accused Adani Group in late January 2023 of conducting a 'stock manipulation and accounting fraud scheme' over a period of ‘decades.’ It published its allegations in a report on its website. The investment research firm also disclosed that it had taken a short position on Adani Group, meaning that it might make money should the price of shares in Adani Group drop.

The full rebutal by Adani Group can be read online here

India: Investment research firm Hindenburg Research has accused Adani Group of conducting a 'stock manipulation and accounting fraud scheme' over a period of ‘decades.’ The US-based firm alleged that listed companies belonging to Adani Group are indirectly part-owned by shell entities and funds connected to the Adani family’s private offshore trusts and companies. The listed companies have purportedly paid money into the offshore trusts and companies, which in turn funded the shell entities and funds investing and trading in Adani Group stocks. Hindenburg Research said that four Adani Group listed companies are ‘near the delisting threshold’ under Indian law requiring a minimum 25% non-promoter holding in listed companies.

Bloomberg has reported that Hindenburg Research said that its two-year investigation into Adani Group uncovered a ‘vast labyrinth of offshore shells’ managed by Adani Group chair Gautam Adani’s brother Vinod Adani. It identified 38 such shell entities based in Mauritius, and other entities based in Cyprus, Singapore, the UAE and the Caribbean. It reported that ‘many’ Vinod Adani-controlled entities show ‘no obvious signs of operations.’ Nonetheless, they have collectively ‘moved billions of dollars.’ Hindenburg Research has uncovered evidence of what it called ‘efforts that seem designed to mask the shell entities, including recurrent listings of ‘nonsensical services’ on their websites. Many of these allegedly have no named employees, and were formed on the same days as others. The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) confirmed that the offshore funds in question are subject to an on-going investigation.

In a statement, Adani Group’s chief financial officer (CFO) Jugeshinder Singh said that Hindenburg Research had not made “any attempt to contact us or verify the factual matrix.” Singh described the allegations “stale, baseless and discredited.”

Hindenburg Research has taken a short position on Adani Group, meaning that it may make money should the price of shares in Adani Group drop.

Separately, Adani Group acquired a 63% stake in Ambuja Cements and a 57% stake in ACC from Switzerland-based Holcim through an offshore special purpose vehicle (SPV) in September 2022.

Hindenburg Research's report on Adani Group, entitled ‘Adani Group: How The World’s 3rd Richest Man Is Pulling The Largest Con In Corporate History’ can be found here.