Displaying items by tag: Infrastructure

Uganda: Local cement producers are facing challenges meeting the specification required for cement being used by the Standard Gauge Railway (SGR) project. Project coordinator Kasingye Kyamugambi said at a procurement conference in Kampala that the project was facing issues with cement, reinforcement steel and sand, according to the Daily Monitor newspaper. Hima Cement is producing one specific product for the project following discussions with the SGR. However, the railway needs eight different types of cement.

Kyamugambi has called for legal cover for the infrastructure project to bypass local product sourcing laws. He has asked that new legislation be introduced to cover projects with a lifecycle of over a century.

The SGR is being built by China’s China Harbour Engineering Company. The project is intended to link up to Kenya’s railway project at Tororo with proposed links to Rwanda and South Sudan. The Democratic Republic of Congo has also expressed interested in the line.

Croatia/Montenegro: Cemex Crotia says it is supplying cement for a local construction boom in Montenegro. It is supplying building materials for several infrastructure projects, including three mixed-use resorts and a motorway. It has already supplied over 0.28Mt of cement for the Smokovac-Mateševo section of the Bar-Boljare motorway. It has also supplied over 0.2Mt/yr of cement for resort projects at Portonovi, Porto Montenegro, and Luštica Bay on the Adriatic coast.

US: The Portland Cement Association (PCA) predicts growth of 2.8% in cement consumption in 2018 and 2019 in its Spring Forecast. Growth is then expected to climb to 4% in 2020 as impacts from potential federal infrastructure spending are likely to take effect. The analysis estimates cement consumption at 99.3Mt in 2018, 102.1Mt in 2019 and 106Mt in 2020.

Ed Sullivan, PCA senior vice president and chief economist, has attributed the forecast growth to a variety of positive economic factors including a strong economy, job market and anticipated increase in infrastructure spending. He said that in combination these factors, “suggest a modest acceleration in real GDP, construction markets and cement consumptions.”

However, the PCA projects that ‘robust’ infrastructure spending isn’t likely to occur until the fourth quarter of 2019, given the key steps that must occur, including passage of an infrastructure bill, federal and state paperwork, bid letting and review and finally contract awards leading to construction.

Philippines: Germany’s ThyssenKrupp hopes to secure orders of around US$50 – 100m in 2017 due to the government’s ‘Build, Build, Build’ infrastructure development programme. It raised US$30m in the country in 2017, according to the BusinessWorld newspaper. The equipment manufacturer wants to benefit from the construction of new cement and power plants. Typically, it provides the engineering and material handling aspect of a project, while a local partner handles the construction.

US: The Portland Cement Association (PCA) has supported an infrastructure study by the American Council for Capital Formation (ACCF). It liked how the study highlighted the importance of life cycle cost analysis and competition in paving. “If federal and state decision makers took this report as a playbook, America would see tremendous taxpayer cost savings and stronger infrastructure built to last long into the future,” said PCA President and chief executive officer (CEO) Michael Ireland.

US: The Portland Cement Association (PCA) has backed President Donald Trump’s call for US$1.5tn to be invested in infrastructure. It has urged the US Congress to take ‘swift’ legislative action to fund and sustain such projects.

“America’s cement producers are proud to play a critical role in what the president so aptly described as our nation of builders,” said PCA President and chief executive officer (CEO) Michael Ireland. “Today, our industry is ready to help America both rebuild long-neglected infrastructure, and construct new-and-improved transportation networks capable of serving the nation long into the future.” He added that the cement industry also supported the need to address significant federal funding gaps including a shortfall in the Highway Trust Fund.

Uganda: Three new cement plants or upgrades to existing plants opening in 2018 are expected to dwarf local demand. Hima Cement, a subsidiary of LafargeHolcim, plans to open a new 1Mt/yr grinding plant at Nyakesi, Tororo Cement is expanding its plant to 3Mt/yr and Kenya's National Cement is building a plant at Mbale, according to the Ugandan Independent newspaper. Following completion of the three projects local production capacity will rise to 6.8Mt/yr from 3.6Mt/yr. Local demand is 2.4Mt/yr.

Cement industry executives are expecting growth in the construction industry as the government starts infrastructure projects in the oil and gas sector. The cement producers also expect export markets to support local production capacity growth, particularly in South Sudan, western Kenya and eastern Democratic Republic of Congo.

Indonesia: Semen Indonesia forecasts that domestic cement consumption will grow at a rate of 5 – 7% year-on-year in 2018, a lower rate than the level of 7.8% recorded for the first 11 months of 2017. Semen Indonesia corporate secretary Agung Wiharto said that the prediction was based on continued demand for cement from government infrastructure projects, according to the Jakarta Post. The company also took other factors - such as inflation, political stability and market confidence - into account in its sales projection. Indocement has also forecast a cement consumption growth rate of 5 – 6% in 2018. Both companies reported reduced earnings in the third quarter of 2017.

India: The Cement Manufacturers Association (CMA) says that the local cement industry has 100Mt/yr of excess production capacity out of a total 425Mt/yr. The sector is sitting on over US$9.4bn of ‘sunk investment in surplus capacities’ but the CMA expects infrastructure schemes including railway projects to increase demand, according to the Press Trust of India. CMA President Shailendra Chouksey added that initiatives such as the Mumbai-Ahmedabad bullet train could raise cement consumption by 3 – 5Mt/yr.

In separate comments M P Rawal, the company administrator of JK Cements, confirmed the CMA’s assessment of the sector by saying that a slowdown in the construction industry in 2016 had led to a 70% utilisation rate of the country’s cement plants. He expected the same situation to persist in 2017. However, he warned that one bullet train project was unlikely to have a big impact on the situation.

ARM Cement’s declining fortunes this week may signal the end of the current growth cycle in the Kenyan cement industry. The cement producer posted a 20% year-on-year drop in its sales revenue to US$52m for the first half of 2017. Its financial returns have been turbulent since 2015. However, inward investment from the UK’s CDC Group in 2016 had appeared to help the company enabling it to pay of debts and even consider an upgrade project to the grinding capacity at its Athi River plant.

Graph 1: Cement production in Kenya for first half of year, 2013 - 2017. Source: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics.

Graph 2: Cement consumption in Kenya for first five months of year, 2013 - 2017. Source: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics.

Unfortunately it now appears that the Kenyan cement market may have peaked in 2016. As can be seen from Kenya National Bureau of Statistics figures in Graph 1 and 2, production hit a high of 3.31Mt in the first half of 2016 and it has fallen to 3.18Mt for the same period in 2017. Consumption too has fallen, to 2.5Mt for the first five months of 2017. At the same time the value of building plans approved by the Nairobi City Council dropped by 12% to US$1.02bn for the first five months of 2017 with falls in both residential and non-residential applications although the decline in residential was more pronounced. One of the country’s larger infrastructure projects, the Standard Gauge Railway from Mombasa to Nairobi entered its final stage of construction towards the end of 2016 with the completion of track laying.

Bamburi Cement has also reported falling revenue and profit so far in 2017. Its turnover fell by 8% to US$170 and its profit decreased by 36% to US$18m for the half year. Bamburi blamed it on a contracting market, low private sector investment leading to residential sector issues, delays in some infrastructure projects and droughts. The drought also hit the company’s operating profit via higher energy costs. On the plus side though Bamburi’s subsidiary in neighbouring Uganda did record a good performance.

It’s likely that the general election in Kenya in early August 2017 has slowed down the construction industry through uncertainty about infrastructure investment and general fears about political unrest. Thankfully these latter concerns have appeared unfounded so far but the memory of the disorder following the poll in 2007, where over 1000 people died, remains acute. And of course the 2017 election is not over yet following the intervention of the Supreme Court to nullify the result of the first ballot and call for a second. A longer election period with the impending rerun will further add to the pressure on the construction and cement industries.

An industry report on East Africa in February 2017 by the Dyer & Blair Investment Bank fleshes out much of the situation in the region. One particular point it makes though is that, as it stands at present, building materials may be too expensive to grow the market fully. Dyer & Blair suggest that lower construction costs and more affordable home ownership methods might be the key to driving low end housing demands and in turn this might grow cement consumption.

With lots of new production capacity coming online both locally and in neighbouring countries such as Uganda and Ethiopia, the Kenyan cement market faces the dilemma of trying to balance the medium to long-term demographics with the picture on the ground. Low per capita cement consumption suggests growing markets but if the demand isn’t present in the short term then the impetus for cement producers to expand shrivels especially with aggressive imports, rising energy costs and growing local competition. Once the election period finishes the picture will be clearer but the boom times may have abated for now.