Displaying items by tag: Tanzania

Kenya: ARM Cement’s net loss more than doubled to US$55m in 2017 due to poor demand in Kenya and Tanzania. Its sales fell by 32% year-on-year to US$85m from US$127m. Elections in Kenya reduced cement demand, a coal import ban in Tanzania caused production issues at its Tanga cement plant and both countries saw increased competition.

“2017 was the most challenging for the group since the company’s listing on the Nairobi Securities Exchange in 1997. Whilst the management has navigated many business difficulties well in the past, raised capital for expansion, increased net profits and market capitalisation continuously over a 14 year period up to 2015, the challenges of the past year have been unprecedented,” the company said in a statement.

The cement producer says it is undergoing a ‘significant’ review of its current operations, asset base and financing structure to address its problems. It has also been cutting staff benefits as part of its plan to save money.

UK-government investor CDC Group, which holds a 41% stake in the company, has also replaced its board members Ketso Gordhan and Pepe Meijer with Sofia Bianchi and Rohit Anand.

Tanzania: Dangote Cement plans to start using natural gas at its Mtwara plant by the end of May 2018. The decision follows the completion of a new gas pipeline near the plant, according to the Citizen newspaper. The plant has been using temporary diesel generators. A source quoted by the newspaper said that the unit has been using 6Ml/month of diesel at a cost of about US$4.4m. In late 2016 Dangote Cement made a deal with the government to supply natural gas to its cement plant at Mtwara following a temporary shutdown at the site.

Nigeria: Dangote Cement’s sales revenue rose in 2017 but its sales volumes of cement fell. Its revenue rose by 31% year-on-year to US$2.23bn in 2017 from US$1.70bn in 2016. However, sales volumes of cement in Nigeria fell by 15.9% to 12.7Mt from 15.1Mt. Altogether, its sales volumes rose by 8.4% to 9.37Mt in the rest of Africa and fell by 7% to 21.9Mt in total. Its earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) rose by 50.9% to US$1.08bn from US$713m.

“Although Nigerian volumes were lower in 2017, our Pan-African operations increased volumes by 8.4% and now make up 42% of the Group’s total cement sales, demonstrating the robust diversification of our business,” said Joe Makoju, Acting Group Chief Executive Officer of Dangote Cement. He added that the cement producer had increased its footprint from eight countries to 10 during the reporting period with the opening of new facilities in the Republic of Congo and Sierra Leone, while its operations in Cameroon, Senegal and Ethiopia achieved ‘strong’ sales growth during the year.

Regionally, Dangote Cement said that its estimate for the total Nigerian cement market fell by 18% to 18.6Mt in 2017 due to a recession in the first half of the year and higher prices. It also noted that its Gboko plant in Benue State was mothballed for ‘most of the year.’ Elsewhere, it said that it exported 174,000t of cement from Nigeria to Ghana. In Senegal it introduced 32.5R cement to its product range. In Sierra Leone it opened a 0.5Mt/yr terminal and bagging plant in Freetown in early 2017. In Tanzania it said that its plant at Mtwara had lost earnings due to its reliance on temporary diesel generators. Gas turbines are scheduled to start operation in March 2018.

Tanzania: The government has given Tanzania Portland Cement two months to reduce its dust emissions or face closure. Alphaxard Kangi Lugola, the Deputy Minister of State in the Vice President's Office (Union and Environment), said that dust from the plant was causing health issues with local residents, according to the Citizen newspaper. The National Environment Management Council will monitor the plant for compliance. The cement producer said that the plant would work on reducing its emissions.

This week the US Portland Cement Association (PCA) revised down its forecast for the rise in cement consumption in 2016 to 2.7% from 4%. It also lowered its prediction for 2017, blaming political uncertainty around the presidential election, inflation and slower construction activity. Global Cement Magazine editorial director Robert McCaffrey pointed out on LinkedIn that he was surprised by the revision down in 2017 given the rhetoric by president-elect Donald Trump to invest in large infrastructure projects.

Clearly the PCA is playing it cautious as a politically unknown entity, Trump, slides from campaign trail promises to executive power delivery. Backing them up are the latest figures from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) that show that both cement production and shipments fell slightly in the third quarter of 2016. In the quarter before the election in November 2016 the cement market slowed down. The hard bit is working out why. As we pointed out in a review of the US cement industry in the May 2016 issue of Global Cement Magazine the PCA had previously downgraded its forecast in 2016 due to economic uncertainty despite strong fundamentals for the construction industry. Then, as now, the great hope for the US cement industry was infrastructure spending down the pipeline, at that time the Fixing America’s Surface Transportation Act. At this point it doesn’t seem to have had much of an effect.

Industrial and economic forecasters aren’t the only ones who have a hard time of it in 2016. Political pollsters have also been caught out. Surprises came from the UK’s decision to leave the European Union and the election of Trump. Neither result was widely expected in the media. As explained above, should Trump make good on his building plans then if any cement company based its plans on a forecast dependent on a Hilary Clinton win then it may have lost money.

The power of forecasts has even greater potential effects in developing markets where the corresponding financial risks and rewards are higher. After all, why would any cement company invest tens of millions of US dollars for a cement grinding plant or hundreds of millions for an integrated plant unless there was some whiff of a return on investment?

This then leads to the problems Dangote has reportedly been having with its plant in Tanzania. Amidst a flurry of local media speculation in late November 2016 about why its Mtwara plant had a temporary production shutdown, Dangote’s country chief clarified that it was due to technical problems. It then emerged this week that Dangote’s owner Aliko Dangote met with President John Magufuli to agree a gas supply agreement to the plant. The point here being that even if the market conditions and demographics seems conducive to profit, as is the case in Tanzania, if the local government changes any incentives agreed at the planning stage then everything can change. At this point forecasts based on data become moot.

There’s a great quote from the US pollster Nate Silver that goes, “The key to making a good forecast is not in limiting yourself to quantitative information.” In terms of election campaigns run at a time of upheaval that might mean listening to people more than looking at polling data. In terms of a cement company operating in Africa that might mean fostering links with the local government to ensure no sudden policy changes catch you off-guard. And in the US that might just mean cement company analysts have to follow Donald Trump’s Twitter account.

However bad the multinational cement financial reports get as they tighten their operations remember that it could be worse. For example, they could face the challenges the East African Portland Cement Company (EAPCC) has confronted over the last year. Reuters broke the news this week that EAPCC had widened its loss to US$9.96m due to poor sales, a major plant breakdown and labour unrest. All of this occurred in a construction economy demanding ever more cement.

EAPCC has seemed surrounded by controversy over the last year starting with a conflict of interest issue raised over a change in clinker supply in December 2011. This then led to the removal of the company's directors by the Kenyan government, which in turn led to a strike. In the chaos a worker was shot and wounded. On top of that the report reveals that there was a 'major' breakdown in one of the plant's kilns. It's a wonder that EAPCC didn't make a greater loss in the 2011-2012 year.

Demand for cement in Kenya and in the other countries in the east African region is growing. Data from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics in December 2011 showed that cement consumption in Kenya rose by 12% in the nine months to September 2011. As reported last week in GCW72, ARM Cement (formerly known as Athi River Mining Ltd) reported a net profit of US$9.71m for the first nine months of 2012. This marks a 328% growth in profit compared to the same period in 2011 when it made US$2.26m. Meanwhile this week it was announced that Ethiopia is about to open its second cement plant in the town of Dire Dawa. More plants are on the way. Over in Tanzania, the Tanzania Investment Centre (TIC) announced that the country's cement deficit surpassed 1Mt since 2011.

As has happened elsewhere in Africa, notably in Nigeria and South Africa, local producers are pushing hard to restrict foreign imports as they grow their own capacity. In September 2012 the East Africa Cement Producers Association (EACPA) made warnings on the issue. The chairman of EACPA at the time was none other than the managing director of the EAPCC. In addition potential investors should take note that Kenya will hold its next general election in March 2013. Over 1000 people died in the protests following the 2007 election as well as the displacement of over 500,000 people.

Given this growth in protectionism, international producers who want to expand are being forced to seek riskier territories. Pakistan's Lucky Cement, a major importer of cement to Africa, is doing exactly this. It announced this week that it is entering into joint ventures in plants in DR Congo and Iraq. However these projects perform, Lucky Cement must be praying that they don't end up looking like the last year that EAPCC has endured.