Displaying items by tag: Turkey

It’s the end of the year so it’s time to look at trends in the sector news over the last 12 months. It’s also the end of a decade, so for a wider perspective check out the feature in the December 2019 issue of Global Cement Magazine. The map of shifting production capacity and the table of falling CO₂ emissions per tonne are awesome and inspiring in their own way. They also point towards the successes and dangers facing the industry in the next decade.

Back on 2019 here are some of the main themes of the year in the industry news. This is a selective list but if we missed anything crucial let us know.

European multinationals retreat

LafargeHolcim left the Philippines, Malaysia and Indonesia, HeidelbergCement sold up in Ukraine and reduced its stake in Morocco and CRH is reportedly making plans to leave the Philippines and India, if local media speculation can be believed. To be fair to HeidelbergCement it has also instigated some key acquisitions here and there, but there definitely has been a feel of the multinationals cutting their losses in certain places and retreating that bit closer to their heartlands.

CRH’s chief executive officer Albert Manifold summed it up an earnings meeting when he said, “…you're faced with a capital allocation decision of investing in Europe or North America where you've got stability, certainty, overlap, capability, versus going for something a bit more exotic. The returns you need to generate to justify that higher level of risk are extraordinary and we just don't see it.”

The battle for the European Green Deal

One battle that’s happening right now is the lobbying behind the scenes for so-called energy-intensive industries in Europe as part of the forthcoming European Green Deal. The cement industry is very aware that it is walking a tightrope on this one. The European Union (EU) Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) CO₂ price started to bite in 2019, hitting a high of Euro28/t in August 2019 and plant closures have been blamed on it. The rhetoric from Ursula von der Leyen, the new president of the European Commission, has been bullish on climate legislation and the agitation of Greta Thunberg internationally and groups like Extinction Rebellion has kept the issue in the press. Cembureau, the European Cement Association, is keen to promote the industry’s sustainability credentials but it is concerned that aspects of the proposed deal will create ‘uncertainty and risks.’ Get it wrong and problems like the incoming ban on refuse-derived fuel (RDF) imports into the Netherlands may proliferate. What the Green Deal ends up as could influence the European cement industry for decades.

The managed march of China

Last’s week article on a price spike in Henan province illustrated the tension in China between markets and government intervention. It looks like this was driven by an increase in infrastructure spending with cement sales starting to rise. Cement production growth has also picked up in most provinces in the first three quarters of 2019. This follows a slow fall in cement sales over the last five years as state measures such as consolidation and peak shifting have been implemented. The government dominates the Chinese market and this extends west, as waste importers have previously found out to their cost.

Meanwhile, the Chinese industry has continued to grow internationally. Rather than buying existing assets it has tended to build its own plants, often in joint ventures with junior local partners. LafargeHolcim may have left Indonesia in 2018 but perhaps the real story was Anhui Conch's becoming the country's third biggest producer by local capacity. Coupled with the Chinese dominance in the supplier market this has meant that most new plant projects around the world are either being built by a Chinese company or supplied by one.

India consolidates but watches dust levels

Consolidation has been the continued theme in the world's second largest cement industry, with the auction for Emami Cement and UltraTech Cement’s acquisition of Century Textiles and Industries. Notably, UltraTech Cement has decided to focus its attention on only India despite the overseas assets it acquired previously. Growth in cement sales in the second half of 2019 has slowed and capacity utilisation rates remain low. Indian press reports that CRH is considering selling up. Together with the country's low per capita cement consumption this suggests a continued trend for consolidation for the time being.

Environmental regulations may also play a part in rationalising the local industry, as has already happened in China. The Indian government considered banning petcoke imports in 2018 in an attempt to decrease air pollution. Later, in mid-2019, a pilot emissions trading scheme (ETS) for particulate matter (PM) was launched in Surat, Gujarat. At the same time the state pollution boards have been getting tough with producers for breaching their limits.

Steady growth in the US

The US market has been a dependable one over the last year, generally propping up the balance sheets of the multinational producers. Cement shipments grew in the first eight months of the year with increases reported in the North-Eastern and Southern regions. Imports also mounted as the US-China trade war benefitted Turkey and Mexico at the expense of China. Alongside this a modest trade in cement plants has been going on with upgrades also underway. Ed Sullivan at the Portland Cement Association forecasts slowing growth in the early 2020s but he doesn’t think a recession is coming anytime soon.

Mixed picture in Latin America

There have been winners and losers south of the Rio Grande in 2019. Mexico was struggling with lower government infrastructure spending hitting cement sales volumes in the first half of the year although US threats to block exports haven’t come to pass so far. Far to the south Argentina’s economy has been holding the cement industry back leading to a 7% fall in cement sales in the first 11 months of the year. Both of these countries’ travails pale in comparison to Venezuela’s estimated capacity utilisation of just 12.5%. There have been bright spots in the region though with Brazil’s gradual return to growth in 2019. The November 2019 figures suggest sales growth of just under 4% for the year. Peru, meanwhile, continues to shine with continued production and sales growth.

North and south divide in Africa and the Middle East

The divide between the Middle East and North African (MENA) and Sub-Saharan regions has grown starker as more MENA countries have become cement exporters, particularly in North Africa. The economy in Turkey has held back the industry there and the sector has pivoted to exports, Egypt remains beset by overcapacity and Saudi Arabian producers have continued to renew their clinker export licences.

South of the Sahara key countries, including Nigeria, Kenya and South Africa, have suffered from poor sales due to a variety of reasons, including competition and the local economies. Other countries with smaller cement industries have continued to propose and build new plants as the race to reduce the price of cement in the interior drives change.

Changes in shipping regulations

One of the warning signs that flashed up at the CemProspects conference this year was the uncertainty surrounding the new International Maritime Organistaion (IMO) 2020 environmental regulations for shipping. A meeting of commodity traders for fuels for the cement industry would be expected to be wary of this kind of thing. Their job is to minimise the risk of fluctuating fuel prices for their employers after all. Yet, given that the global cement industry produces too much cement, this has implications for the clinker and cement traders too. This could potentially affect the price of fuels, input materials and clinker if shipping patterns change. Ultimately, IMO 2020 comes down to enforcement but already ship operators have to decide whether and when to act.

Do androids dream of working in cement plants?

There’s a been a steady drip of digitisation stories in the sector news this year, from LafargeHolcim’s Industry 4.0 plan to Cemex’s various initiatives and more. At present the question appears to be: how far can Industry 4.0 / internet of things style developments go in a heavy industrial setting like cement? Will it just manage discrete parts of the process such as logistics and mills or could it end up controlling larger parts of the process? Work by companies like Petuum show that autonomous plant operation is happening but it’s still very uncertain whether the machines will replace us all in the 2020s.

On that cheery note - enjoy the winter break if you have one.

Global Cement Weekly will return on 8 January 2020

Cemex pushed ahead yesterday and announced that it had sold the Kosmos Cement Company to Eagle Materials for around US$665m. It owns a 75% stake in the company, with Italy’s Buzzi Unicem owning the remaining share, giving it roughly US$449m once the deal completes. Proceeds from the sale will go towards debt reduction and general corporate purposes. The sale inventory includes a 1.7Mt/yr integrated cement plant in Louisville, Kentucky as well as seven distribution terminals and raw material reserves.

The decision to sell assets makes sense given Cemex’s financial results so far in 2019. It reported falling sales, cement volumes and earnings in the first nine months of the year although much of this was down to poor market conditions in Mexico. However, the US, along with Europe, was one of its stronger territories with rising sales. Earnings were impaired in the US, possibly due to bad weather in the southeast and competition in Florida, but infrastructure and residential development were reported to be promising.

Graph 1: Portland & Blended Cement shipments in 2018 and 2019. Source: United States Geological Survey (USGS).

Graph 2: Change in imports of hydraulic cement & clinker to the US in 2018 and 2019 from selected countries. Source: USGS.

United States Geological Survey (USGS) data also supports a picture of a growing US market. Shipments of Ordinary Portland Cement and blended cements grew by 2.4% year-on-year to 66.9Mt for the first eight months of 2019 from 65.4Mt in the same period in 2018. By region growth can be seen in the North-East, South and imports. Declines were reported in the West and Midwest. The states of Alabama, Kentucky, Tennessee – the area where the Kosmos plant is located – saw shipments grow by 4% to 4.77Mt from 4.58Mt. It is worth noting that Louisville is in the north of Kentucky near the border with Indiana, where shipments also grew.

The Portland Cement Association’s (PCA) fall forecast may also have helped Cemex’s decision. Ed Sullivan, PCA Senior Vice President and Chief Economist, said that he expected cement consumption in the US to continue growing in 2019 and 2020 but with a slowing trend into 2021 following general gross domestic product (GDP) predictions. The PCA’s view is that pent-up demand following the recession in 2008 was gone and the economy was gradually weakening. Crucially though it didn’t think a recession was impending. In this scenario Cemex might be taking a medium-term view with regards to the Kosmos Cement Company.

Another more general interesting data point from the USGS was the change in import origins to the US. Imports grew by 11.3% to 66.9Mt in January to August 2019. The top five importing countries and their overall share remained the same but there was some movement between them. Turkish and Mexican imports surged at the expensive of Chinese ones as can be seen in Graph 2. The go-to explanation for this would be the on-going US - China trade war. Cemex is a Mexican company with a strong presence in both the US and Mexico. This change in the make-up of the import market in the US may also have informed its decision to sell Kosmos Cement as it looked at the macro scale.

More generally the US market is looking buoyant in the short to medium term. Plants are being sold like Kosmos Cement to Eagle Cement and the Keystone cement plant in Bath, Pennsylvania to HeidelbergCement and a major upgrade project is underway on the new production line at the Mitchell plant in Indiana. In Cemex’s case, as ever with asset sales, the seller sometimes has to make the hard decision of whether to divest a plant in a growing region to help the business in other places that might not be doing so well. The growth of America’s largest locally owned producer, Eagle Cement, may also give cheer to the US’ current ‘America First’ administration.

Brazil: Markets in Brazil and North America have supported Votorantim Cimentos’ sales so far in 2019, despite setbacks in Turkey and Latin America. Its sales revenue rose by 2% year-on-year to US$907m in the first nine months of 2019 from US$891m in the same period in 2018. Overall sales volumes of cement fell slightly to 8.4Mt. The cement producer’s adjusted earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) decreased by 5% to US$188m from US$199m, with declines reported in all operation regions except North America.

Taiwan: Taiwan Cement’s profit has risen so far in 2019 due to stable cement prices and falling coal prices. Its net profit increased by 11.1% year-on-year to US$214m in the first nine months of 2019, according to the Taipei Times newspaper. However, its sales revenue fell by 3.5% to US$2.87bn. The cement producer says it has a production capacity of 102Mt/yr following the formation of a joint venture in Turkey and an acquisition in Portugal in 2018.

The company reported higher labour, transportation and raw material costs in China in the third quarter of 2019. Its expenses were also inflated by environmental upgrades. Company president John Li said, that despite falling prices in Guizhou province, demand in regional markets, including Guangdong, Guangxi and Jiangsu provinces was expected to remain beneficial.

Turkey: Fuchs Petrolub and Opet Petrolcülüks’ joint venture Opet Fuchs has completed construction of its 60,000t/yr plant for the production of assorted oil products, including lubricants for the cement industry. The facility was the result of Euro24m in investment.

Turkey: Sales from Sabancı Holding’s cement businesses fell by 5% year-on-year to Euro132m in the first half of 2019 from Euro139m in the same period in 2018. Its cost of goods sold grew by 7% during the same period. It made a net loss of Euro1.35m compared to a net profit of Euro23.3m previously. Overall, the group’s sales rose by 24% to Euro1.48bn but its profit fell by 17% to Euro577m.

France: Vicat’s sales rose by 4.6% year-on-year to Euro1.34bn in the first half of 2019 from Euro1.28bn in the same period in 2018. This was mainly due to its acquisition of Brazil’s Ciplan in late 2018. At constant scope and exchange rates its sales fell by 0.6% due to poor markets in Turkey, Switzerland, Indian and West Africa. Its earnings before interest and tax fell by 9.4% to Euro97m from Euro107m. Cement sales volumes dropped by 4.9% to 10.8Mt from 11.4Mt and concrete volumes decreased by 6.7% to 4.3Mm³ from 4.57Mm³.

“In the first half of 2019, solid performances in France, Asia and the US drove an increase in our sales and earnings before interest, taxation, deprecation and amortisation (EBITDA). These results reflect a marked improvement in the operational profitability given the on-going increase in consumed energy costs, the deteriorating macroeconomic situation in Turkey and the exceptional rainfalls in California that we experienced in the first half,” said Guy Sidos, the group’s chief executive officer (CEO).

By region, the group’s sales and earnings rose in France but fell in the rest of Europe. Sales grew in the Americas region, even without the Ciplan acquisition, but earnings fell due to a Euro10.6mn settlement payment booked in the US in the first half of 2018. The group’s sales fell in India but earnings rose due to price increases. Poor markets in Turkey and Egypt hit sales and caused a loss.

Italy: Cementir Holding has blamed poor performance in Turkey for falling cement sales volumes. Although it said that positive trends in Scandinavia, the Baltics and Belgium had party compensated for this. Its sales volumes of grey and white cement fell by 12.2% year-on-year to 4.32Mt in the first half of 2019 from 4.92Mt in the same period in 2018. Ready-mixed concrete sales dropped by 21.3% to 2Mm³ from 2.54Mm³. Its revenue rose slightly by 0.6% to Euro592m from Euro589m. Its earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) grew by 14.7% to Euro110m from Euro96m.

Turkey: The Turkish Cement Manufacturers' Association (TÇMB) has appointed Tamer Saka as its president. He has been the president of Sabancı Holding Cement Group since early 2018.

Saka holds a doctorate from the School of Business at Istanbul University. He worked as the Manager and Senior Manager of Arthur Andersen and Ernst & Young companies, respectively, and he was in charge of Risk Management Consulting Services and then he joined Sabancı Holding family in 2004 as the Risk Management Director. He served as the Executive Director responsible for business development operations of nearly 20 countries, including Turkey, at Willis London in 2010 and 2011. In August 2011, he was appointed as the Strategy and Business Development Coordinator of Kibar Holding and then he was appointed as the Head of Automotive and Corporate Functions Group in May 2012 and as the Kibar Holding Board Member. Tamer Saka became the CEO of Kibar Holding in 2014.

Turkey: Turkish Cement Manufacturers’ Association (TÇMB) chairman Nihat Özdemir says that the local industry needs to focus on exports rather than for local consumption. He made the comments at a meeting between the TÇMB and the Cement Industry Employers' Association (ÇEİS) hosted by Deloitte, according to the Dünya newspaper. Exports grew by 46% year-on-year in the first half of 2019 to a value of US$444m driven by deliveries to the US, Ghana and Israel. ÇEİS chairman Suat Çalbıyık called on the Turkish State Railway company to abolish its fixed tariff for goods moved up to 150km to further support the industry.
TÇMB data shows that local consumption fell by 24% year-on-year to 5.12Mt in the first quarter of 2019 from 6.74Mt in 2018. Domestic sales fell by 34% to 3.98Mt from 5.99Mt. Exports rose by 37% to 0.94Mt from 0.68Mt. Local decline in the market has been blamed on a weak housing market and a slowdown in the Turkish economy.