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Trickle down economics in Ecuador

14 October 2015

Change draws nearer this week in the Ecuadorian cement industry with the announcement of further details on a new integrated cement plant. Union Cementera Nacional (UCEM) plans to build its third cement plant. The part-government owned group will build its new 2200t/day facility in the country's central Chimborazo province. The move will expand the group's domestic production from 1600t/day to 3800t/day, adding to its existing 650t/day of plant in Chimborazo and its 950t/day plant in Azogues. The expansion was supported by a US$230m investment agreement agreed in September 2015 between UCEM and Casaracra.

The timing is interesting here given that cement sales have reportedly fallen year-on-year by 7% for the first seven months of 2015, according to Ecuadorian Institute of Cement and Concrete (INECYC) data. Holcim, in its financial report for the first half of 2015, attributed its lower cement volumes to effects on the local economy by lower oil prices and poor weather. This also followed a declining year for volumes in 2014 after Holcim reported a record year in 2013.

Holcim also reported continuing to export clinker to its Ecuador unit in 2014 despite the drop in volumes. To that end it completed the second phase of its own expansion project at its Guayaquil cement plant back in March 2015. It increased its clinker production capacity to 4500t/day at the site at a cost US$400m.

Also of note, but on a smaller scale, was the announcement by the North American subsidiary of Gebr. Pfeiffer in September 2015 that it was supplying a new MPS swing mill for an existing grinding station at a clinker plant run by Hormicreto. Published details are sketchy on this plant but A TEC Greco refers to supplying a burner to the company for a cement kiln in 2013. The mountainous location and ownership by a concrete producer suggest that this may be a mini-cement plant.

Following the departure of Lafarge from the market at the end of 2014, Ecuador now has three main cement producers: LafargeHolcim (inheriting the Holcim assets), UCEM and Union Andina de Cementos (UNACEM). UCEM's expansion plans will increase its share of the industry by production capacity making it the second largest producer in the country. MCPEC - INECYC estimates projected that cement demand would reach 9Mt/yr in 2018. Meanwhile Manuel Román Moreno, general manager of the Empresa Pública Cementera del Ecuador (EPCE), estimated that the country imported around 1Mt/yr of clinker in 2014.

The question then for UCEM is whether the country will want 9Mt/yr of cement in 2018 with a depressed price of crude oil. As an Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) Ecuador's economy is, no doubt, feeling the pinch from the low price of crude oil after a period of growth. In its expansion announcement UCEM reported the reliance of the new plant on bunker oil. This will be trucked in from the Amazonas (Shushufindi) refinery in Sucumbios province and purchased at a subsidised price. Cheap oil can be used to run the plants but it may be needed more to run the country's infrastructure demand for building materials such as a cement.

 

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Can Peru’s cement industry continue to grow?

14 January 2015

If you ever visit Lima be sure to try the wonton soup! One of the surprises of the Peruvian capital is the large number of Chinese restaurants. Peru has one of the largest proportions of inhabitants of Chinese-descent in Latin America. This adds a spoonful of historical context to this week's news of China's Jidong Development Group's intentions to buy Cementos Interoceanicos. It is one of a few stories affirming Peru's growth in recent years, although this trend may be changing.

The major Chinese producer is acquiring a cement plant with mineral rights that was first proposed in 2008. Originally the 1.6Mt/yr plant was budgeted at US$250m with construction set to start in 2009 and production intended to start in early 2011. At the time company executive director Armando Belfiore told local press that reserves of 700Mt of limestone and 390Mt of pozzolan exist in the Macusani, Ajoyani and Potoni districts in the Carabaya province of Puno. Subsequent plans were to develop lime and calcium carbide also. However, at present the project still appears to be in the development phase. No doubt Chinese money will be very welcome.

Meanwhile Peru's local producers have steadily been making their own progress towards becoming regional players in their own right. In December 2014 Union Andina de Cementos (Unacem) completed its purchase of Lafarge's cement assets in Ecuador. The US$517m deal included a 1.4Mt/yr cement plant in Otavalo. This followed Holding Cementero del Peru, a subsidiary of Gloria which operates Cementos Yura, paying US$300m to buy up to 98.4% in Sociedad Boliviana de Cemento (Soboce), Bolivia's largest cement producer. Media analysts have predicted that Cementos Pacasmayo is also likely to expand internationally once it has finished its local projects.

Internally, each of the major Peruvian cement producers has its own projects. Unacem is investing US$374m on its Atocongo and Condorcocha plants between 2014 and 2018, with a focus on the cement mill, the development of the Carpapata III hydroelectricity project and the construction of bagging facilities in Condorcocha. Cementos Yura targeted US$50m towards machinery and equipment at its Yura plant near Arequipa. Cementos Pacasmayo's new US$385m cement plant at Piura is due to start operation in the second half of 2015. The new plant in northwest Peru will have a production capacity of 1.6Mt/yr of cement and 1Mt/yr of clinker.

Cement production in Peru has slowed since 2012 when the country saw production rise by 16% year-on-year to 9.85Mt. 2013 saw production rise by 6% to 10.5Mt. Currently released figures from the association of cement manufacturers in Peru (Asocem) to November 2014 suggest that this growth has continued to fall to 1.5% year-on-year.

Cementos Pacasmayo reported in its third quarter report for 2014 that the Peruvian economy had experienced a slowdown during the first nine months of the year although it was expected to recover in the final quarter and beyond due to impending infrastructure projects and spending. Given Peru's continued growth in gross domestic product (GDP), Jidong, Pacasmayo and Peru's other cement producers could do worse than order a nice bowl of wonton soup while they wait and see what happens.

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