Displaying items by tag: Ukraine
Czech Public: Ukraine-based Betonmash has fulfilled an order for a Granit-42 ready-mix concrete batching plant from a customer in the Czech Republic. The 42m3/hr-capacity plant consists of a 750l rotary mixer and 75t hopper. Italy-based Bonfiglioli supplies the Grant-42’s drives, Italy-based Camozzi supplies its pneumatic components and Italy-based WAM supplies its screw conveyors. It uses sensors produced by Netherlands-based Zemic.
Polish Cement Association predicts fall in cement sales in 2021 and reviews challenges of carbon neutrality
07 May 2021Poland: The Polish Cement Association (SPC) has forecast a 2% year-on-year drop in cement sales to 18.5Mt in 2021. President Krzysztof Kieres attributed the fall to growing imports and reduced construction due to a cold start to the year. He predicts that sales will rise again, by 4% to 19.3Mt, in 2022.
The SPC has warned that the industry faces large costs in meeting the European Green Deal’s required 40% CO2 emissions reduction by 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2050. In particular, the local industry noted that the rising European Union (EU) CO2 price has caused a direct increase in electricity prices. It has called on the government and the EU to compensate it for this rise.
Imports of cement also present a key challenge. In 2020, imports of Belarusian cement increased by 80% to 440,000t and imports of Ukrainian cement increased by 50% to 32,000t. The association expressed strong support for the European Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) as a means of protecting the industry against imports both from neighbouring countries outside the EU and via polluting shipping from cement exporters further afield such as Turkey.
Ukraine: Ukrcement, the Ukrainian cement association, has lobbied for cement to be excluded from a free trade agreement being arranged between Ukraine and Turkey. Pavel Kachur, the head of Ukrcement, said that he had informed the Ministry of Economy and the trade representative of Ukraine about the association’s view, according to Interfax-Ukraine. He said that the local cement sector was able to fully provide consumers with cement. He also noted the significantly higher cement production capacity in Turkey compared to Ukraine. In mid-2020 the Interdepartmental Commission for International Trade explored a complaint by local cement producers including Buzzi-Unicem subsidiary Dyckerhoff, HeidelbergCement subsidiary Kryvyi Rih Cement and CRH subsidiary Podilsky Cement into imports of cement from Turkey.
Cement import shortcuts
20 January 2021Cement imports were one of the themes in this week’s news, with stories on the topic from South Africa and Ukraine. The former concerned the latest chapter in that industry’s saga on slowing down imports. The International Trade Administration Commission (ITAC) has started a review on tariffs imposed on cement from Pakistan that were introduced in 2015.
Local producers in South Africa have experienced mixed fortunes since 2015, such as PPC and AfriSam’s failed merger attempt or the introduction of a local carbon tax, and were starting to complain again about imports even before the effects of coronavirus in 2020. This led the Concrete Institute to lobby ITAC in 2019 about rising imports from other nations, principally Vietnam and China.
Back in 2013 cement imports from Pakistan to South Africa were 1.1Mt. This represented the vast majority of all imports to the country. Tariffs of 14 – 77% were imposed on Pakistan-based exporters in mid-2015, initially for six months, but this was then extended. Roughly a year later in mid-to-late 2016, Sephaku Holdings said that imports of cement had ‘significantly’ declined on a year-on-year basis, particularly from Pakistan. By the end of June 2016 approximately 0.16Mt had been imported compared to 0.5Mt in the previous period. However, it noted that 75% of the volume was from China. Since then imports started to creep up. Cement imports reportedly rose by 84% year-on-year in 2018 and then by 11% in 2019. Data from construction industry data company Industry Insight suggests that Vietnam accounted for 70% or 0.47Mt of the 0.68Mt of cement imported into South Africa in the first nine months of 2020. The remaining 30% or 0.20Mt came from Pakistan. In this kind of environment it seems unlikely that ITAC will do anything other than extend tariffs.
Meanwhile in the northern hemisphere, in Ukraine this week a court in Kiev dismissed a challenge by the Belarusian Cement Company to remove cement import tariffs from Russia, Belarus and Moldova that were introduced in mid-2019 for five years. Notably, a law firm representing Dyckerhoff Cement Ukraine, HeidelbergCement Ukraine, Ivano-Frankivsk Ukraine and CRH subsidiary Podilsky Cement commented favourably upon the court’s decision to uphold tariffs. These producers form UKRCEMENT, the association of cement producers of Ukraine. However, the association doesn’t include Russia-based Eurocement, which operates Ukraine’s largest cement plant at Balakleya. Relations have been poor between Russia and Ukraine since a war between the countries that started in 2014. So any trade tariffs implemented upon Russia and/or Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) members will inevitably carry the whiff of geopolitics. Yet, in Ukraine’s defence, it also started an anti-dumping investigation into cement imports from Turkey in September 2020. Nationalism may be relevant but let’s not discount hard-nosed economics just yet.
Turkey’s involvement in Ukraine leads to last week’s presentation at Global Cement Live by Sylvie Doutres, DSG Consultants on cement and clinker trade in and out of the Mediterranean region. Readers can watch the presentation here but the headline story here was the trend of reducing exports away from southern European countries such as Spain, Italy and Greece, to greater exports from North African countries and Turkey over the last decade. Turkey particularly has pushed its share of exports even more in 2020 despite (or perhaps because of) a tough domestic market. The general trend here away from southern Europe has been blamed on European Union-based (EU) producers becoming less competitive often against newer plants in nearby countries.
Battles between producers and government tariff policies are a perennial feature of any market in commodities such as cement. The ebb and flow of import and export markets cover many factors including production costs, distribution networks, tariff structures and more. Distinctive features of cement trading, for example, are the high cost of transporting heavy building materials over land and the world’s chronic cement production overcapacity. In the EU’s case one reason that often gets blamed is the emissions trading system (EU ETS) and the mounting cost it is imposing upon cement production. For example, today’s story that Holcim España wants to convert its integrated Jerez plant into a grinding unit has been blamed on falling exports and a reduction in ETS credits. It is noteworthy then that the EU ETS rate breached the Euro30/t level in December 2020. This may be good news for the sustainability lobby but the exodus of exports away from Southern Europe tells its own story. What form the EU ETS carbon border adjustment mechanism takes as part of the EU Green Deal will be watched closely by producers both inside and outside the EU.
Global Cement Live continues on 21 January 2021 with Kevin Rudd, Independent Cement Consultants, presenting 'Independent or third party factory acceptance testing of major cement plant equipment and critical spare parts and the challenges of Covid’
Ukraine court upholds anti-dumping duties on cement from Russia, Belarus and Moldova
14 January 2021Ukraine: The District Administrative Court of Kiev has dismissed Belarusian Cement Company (BCC)’s claim against the government’s Interdepartmental Commission on International Trade for the cancellation of anti-dumping duties on cement. The duties on imported cement are 57% the value of goods from Belarus, 94% from Moldova and 115% from Russia. The commission introduced the tariffs in late May 2019 and they will expire in late May 2024.
The law firm representing third parties Dyckerhoff Cement Ukraine, HeidelbergCement Ukraine, Ivano-Frankivsk Ukraine and CRH subsidiary Podilsky Cement said "The court recognised the need to protect the violated rights of national cement producers in Ukraine from dumped imports of goods to Ukraine.” It added that the imports had caused ‘significant damage’ to national producers.
Update on Turkey: November 2020
18 November 2020Last week’s financial results from Çimsa contained a glimmer of hope for the Turkish cement market. Its net sales grew by 27% year-on-year to Euro175m in the first nine months of 2020 and operating profit more than doubled. Crucially, the balance between domestic and export sales tilted back a little toward the local market at a 55/45 ratio rather than 40/60 for the same period in 2019. Oyak Cement, another of the larger local producers, reported a similar rise in sales also. Akçansa Çimento, the joint venture between Sabancı Holding and HeidelbergCement, saw its sales fall slightly so far in 2020 but its profit grew. These financial results are all surprising given the currency and debt crisis the country faced in 2018 and now coronavirus in 2020.
Graph 1: Domestic and export cement sales in Turkey, January – July 2017 – 2020. Source: Turkish Cement Manufacturers’ Association (TÇMB)
Graph 1 above shows the general picture of the Turkish cement industry for the first seven months of each year to put the data so far in 2020 into context. The general Turkish economy faced problems in the middle of the year when the value of the Turkish Lira dropped sharply in mid-2018 and interest rates rose sharply. Subsequently, annual cement sales fell by over 20% year-on-year to 56.5Mt in 2019. A couple of weeks ago the Turkish Cement Manufacturers’ Association (TÇMB) said that the sector started 2020 optimistically with a recovery in January 2020. Coronavirus then hit, causing a contraction in the domestic market for the next four months. However, the construction market picked up again in June 2020 and this is expected to have continued into August 2020.
The cement sector previously pivoted to exports strongly with nearly a 50% bump up in exports to 11Mt in 2019. 2020 has been similar so far for the export market with a 40% rise year-on-year from January to July 2020 to around 9Mt. Much of these exports have gone to the US with local media and the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) reporting that the North American country took 18% of Turkey’s Euro840m cement exports from January to September 2020. Focusing on international trade has not come without a price though. In September 2020 the Ukrainian government started an investigation into alleged dumping of cement by Turkish producers. Following a complaint by local producers, the Interdepartmental Commission for International Trade (ICIT) determined that: “imports were made to an extent and under conditions such that they may cause material injury to the domestic producer.” The results of the investigation remain to be seen, but Ukraine had no qualms in 2019 about slapping tariffs onto cement imports from Russia, Belarus and Moldova.
All of this leaves the Turkish cement producers relying, much as previously, on the export market to hold up sales while the domestic market recovers to 2018 levels. This is becoming riskier, given the growing number of rivals exporting cement around the world, particularly from around the Mediterranean, and with more countries like Egypt hoping to do likewise. Yet as long as favourite destinations like the US and Israel keep buying, Turkey should be okay. At home, the question remains whether the growth seen post-coronavirus measures in the spring is a sign of economic recovery or merely pent up demand. The country’s initial coronavirus response was praised internationally but signs of a second wave are present. Meanwhile the International Monetary Fund (IMF) confirmed in October 2020 its earlier forecast of a 5% drop in gross domestic product (GDP) for Turkey in 2020. Much of the rest of the world is facing similar contractions in output or worse in 2020 but starting the year from a poor economic position is not enviable.
Who wants a piece of Eurocement?
04 November 2020Eurocement changed owners this week when Sberbank took control of the company’s parent organisation. Due to a ‘difficult financial situation’ the state-owned bank said it had consolidated 100% of the shares of Eurocement’s parent company GFI Investment Limited. It’s uncertain quite how difficult this situation is but in 2016 the cement producer owed the bank Euro700m. Local media agency RosBiznesConsulting (RBC) reported in September 2020 that the ‘problem borrower’ that had caused a record increase in overdue debt at Sberbank in July 2020 was none other than Eurocement. Whilst Sberbank has said so far that it does not have operational control of the group, it is seeking a strategic investor for the asset.
This is a major story given that Eurocement is Russia’s largest cement producer and it operates 19 cement plants Russia, Ukraine and Uzbekistan. It said it produced 16.5Mt of cement domestically in 2019 but this compares to a production capacity of around 50Mt/yr suggesting a considerably low utilisation rate of just one third! The producer has embarked on a modernisation programme in recent years but many of its plants are old and use wet-process production lines.
2019 finally saw the Russian cement market turn around following decline since 2015. Unfortunately, CM Pro reports that cement production in Russia as a whole fell by 5% year-on-year to 25.1Mt in the first half of 2020. Cement shipments fell by a similar rate. This trend appears to have carried on through July and August 2020. Cement consumption has fallen fairly uniformly in most regions with the exception of the Northwestern Federal District, which has seen a modest increase. In the middle of the year, Soyuzcement - the Union of Russian Cement Producers, was expecting wildly different scenarios ranging from falls of up to 10% in a negative situation to rebound of up to 3% in a positive one. It was pinning its hopes on government support for the construction industry in various ways. With the trend to August 2020, record breaking numbers of new coronavirus cases in early November 2020 and the onset of winter, it seems unlikely that Soyuzcement’s positive thinking will come to pass.
With this in mind who might want to buy into Eurocement? No doubt various private equity firms and local producers are watching the oil price carefully while they plan their next move. Internationally, LafargeHolcim seems the obvious western multinational contender with a presence in the country. Yet it seems unlikely it would want to take the risk, following its departure from certain regions like South-East Asia in recent years and persistent rumours about other divestment targets. HeidelbergCement’s balance sheet, credit lines and appetite for risk might not yet withstand a major investment in Russia. Buzzi Unicem has actually been expanding recently with an acquisition in Brazil but whether it’s prepared to bet on another market disrupted by coronavirus is unknown. China National Building Materials Group Corporation (CNBM) was reportedly planning on becoming a shareholder of Eurocement Group in 2016 but this may have just been bluster surrounding geopolitical links between Russia and China, and general cooperation between the companies on upgrading Eurocement’s old production lines. However, Russia is the next location in China’s Belt and Road initiative so it’s not ridiculous. Whoever steps up can expect the Russian government to take a keen interest, depending on how much control Sberbank wants to offer up of Eurocement. The story continues.
Ukraine launches anti-dumping investigation of Turkish cement imports
16 September 2020Ukraine: The Interdepartmental Commission for International Trade (ICIT) has pursued a complaint by multiple domestic cement producers including Buzzi-Unicem subsidiary Dyckerhoff, HeidelbergCement subsidiary Kryvyi Rih Cement and CRH subsidiary Podilsky Cement in opening an investigation into imports of cement from Turkey. The Uriadovy Kurier newspaper has reported that, on its preliminary assessment, the ICIT deemed the complaint to provide “sufficiently substantiated evidence on the basis of which it can be considered that the importation of cement into Ukraine originating in Turkey could be at dumped prices, the margin cannot be considered minimal and the import volumes are not insignificant in accordance with the law.” It added, “The complaint also provides sufficiently substantiated evidence that imports were made to an extent and under conditions such that they may cause material injury to the domestic producer.”
Ukraine: Italy-based Buzzi Unicem subsidiary Dyckerhoff Cement Ukraine has reported a profit of Euro29.2m in 2019, up by 362% from Euro5.67m in 2018. Ukrainian News has reported that the company increased its assets and decreased its accounts receivable and long-term liabilities during the year.
Production picks up - update on Russia
08 January 2020Last month Soyuzcement, the Union of Russian Cement Producers, reported that cement production was on course to grow by 8% year-on-year to 58Mt in 2019. This estimate was based on growth from January to October 2019 followed by a modest rise in November.
Graph 1: Cement production in Russia, 2010 – 2019. Source: CM Pro, Ernst & Young.
The pickup is significant because it’s the country’s first annual resumption of growth since 2014. At that time low commodity prices, a worsening economy and international sanctions broke a fairly steady growth cycle that had started in 2000. The only blip in that run was the global economic downturn around 2008. In the medium to long term Soyuzcement’s review pinpointed growth drivers as being government-backed residential housing schemes, integrated land development projects and an increase in the construction of concrete roads. This increase has been driven by consumption growth in most regions, led by a 12% rise in the Central Federal District although the Volga Federal District started to slow in the second half of 2019.
Figure 1: Russian Federal Districts by cement production in 2016. Source: Soyuzcement.ru.
Anecdotally, this change in the fortunes of the Russian cement industry can be seen in the volume of news coverage on the Global Cement website over the last few years. The mean number of news stories on the country in 2016 and 2017, increased by half in 2018 and then again in 2019. Partly this is down to our attempts to increase our coverage of the region but it also shows a general trend. In the news specifically there haven’t been many new plant projects domestically but there has been a steady stream of upgrades and maintenance related stories. For example, Eurocement subsidiary Kavkazcement reported in recent weeks that it had installed a replacement dry kiln. This has been part of a group of upgrades that Eurocement has started in 2019. On the supplier side both Germany’s Gebr. Pfeiffer and Italy’s Bedeschi opened subsidiaries in Russia in 2019.
One thing that didn’t seem to slow down the growth were mounting tariffs on Russian exports into Ukraine. Russia’s neighbour first blocked imports of cement from Russia in May 2019 due to, what it said was a Russian ban on imports. It then followed this with an antidumping rate of 115% for imported clinker and Ordinary Portland Cement (OPC) from Russia. It also penalised imports from Belarus and Moldova, although at lower rates. Russia’s cement export rates seemed untroubled by this, rising by 13.5% year-on-year to 0.8Mt in the first 10 months of 2019. Exports hit of high of just below 2Mt/yr in 2014 but have since stabilised at around 1Mt/yr. Imports reached around 5Mt/yr in the early 2010s and have been slowly declining since then, reaching 1.5Mt in 2018.
The lowered production rate that the Russian cement industry has faced over the last five years has been noteworthy given the apparent low capacity utilisation rate. The Global Cement Directory 2019 records the country as having a production capacity of 111Mt/yr. This gives Russia a capacity utilisation rate of 48% in 2018! Unlike, say, the countries in southern Europe that have had to rationalise their cement industries following the post-2008 decline, Russia may have structural aspects to the industry that have helped protect it from lower utilisation rates. These include relatively low export-import rates and the large size of the country with limited sea access to many regions. Most of its production capacity is located in the west but a sizable minority of plants are based further east across the Ural, Siberian and Far Eastern regions. Even under subdued economic conditions, plants in these places are likely to be less susceptible to foreign imports, for example.
Looking ahead, the question is whether the current growth that the cement industry is enjoying is viable once government spending slows down. Alongside this the industry could also focus on sustainability. As the government announced in early January 2020, the country expects to face both negative and positive effects from climate change. The cement industry could be at the front of this trend if it decides to clean up production and/or move into new markets as the Arctic region opens up.