Displaying items by tag: carbon border adjustment mechanism
China to include cement industry in national carbon trading market
10 September 2024China: China plans to expand its national carbon trading market to encompass the cement industry by the end of 2024, Bloomberg reports. This initiative, announced by Minister of Ecology and Environment Huang Runqiu, aims to reduce emissions in high-pollution sectors and prepare for the EU’s impending carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) starting in 2026. Currently limited to 2200 power utilities, the expansion will integrate seven more sectors into the market, which China hopes will cover 70% of its emissions by 2030. The Ministry is reportedly seeking public feedback on the proposal until 19 September 2024.
Vietnam's cement sector minimally impacted by EU’s CBAM
05 September 2024Vietnam: Vietnam's cement sector anticipates minimal impact from the EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) as exports to the EU account for less than 2% of total sales, according to the Vietnam News Brief Service. However, Luong Duc Long, vice president and general secretary of the Vietnam Cement Association, remains alert to potential changes in emission thresholds that could incur additional taxes. Currently, the country’s cement sector emits 700 - 750kg/t of CO₂, with goals to reduce this to 650kg/t by 2030 and to 550kg/t by 2050 through technological advancements like rotary kilns and AI, as well as the use of alternative fuels and waste management solutions.
Update on the Central Balkans, August 2024
28 August 2024The mountainous eastern shore of the Adriatic Sea and its hinterlands in Europe’s Balkan Peninsula have one of the world’s highest densities of countries: six, across a broad equilateral triangle of 212,000km2. All six states – Albania, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia – are historically characterised by political non-alignment, carrying over from the Cold War period, and all the more notable for the presence of the EU to the north (Croatia, Hungary and Romania) and east (Bulgaria and Greece).
A nine-plant, 9Mt/yr local cement sector serves the 16.8m-strong population of the unconsolidated ‘bloc.’ Albania has 2.8Mt/yr (31%), Serbia 2.7Mt/yr (30%), Bosnia & Herzegovina 1.6Mt/yr (18%), North Macedonia 1.4Mt/yr (15%) and Kosovo 500,000t/yr (6%), while Montenegro has no cement capacity – for now. Altogether, this gives this quarter of South East Europe a capacity per capita of 539kg/yr. The industry consists entirely of companies based outside of the region. Albania’s two plants are Lebanese and Greek-owned (by Seament Holding and Titan Cement Group respectively). Titan Cement Group also controls single-plant Kosovo and North Macedonia, and competes in the Serbian cement industry alongside larger and smaller plants belonging to Switzerland-based Holcim and Ireland-based CRH, respectively. Lastly, Bosnia & Herzegovina’s capacity is shared evenly between Germany-based Heidelberg Materials and Hungary-based Talentis International Construction, with one plant each.
Lafarge Srbija, Holcim's subsidiary in Serbia, announced plans for its second plant in the country, at Ratari in Belgrade, last week. No capacity has yet emerged, but the plant will cost €110m, making something in the region of the country’s existing 0.6 – 1.2Mt/yr plants seem likely. This would give Serbia over a third of total capacity in the Central Balkans and twice the number of plants of any other country there, expanding its per-capita capacity by 22 – 44%, from a regionally low 408kg/yr to 500 – 590kg/yr.
In announcing the upcoming Ratari cement plant, Lafarge Srbija laid emphasis on its sustainability. The plant will use 1Mt/yr of ash from the adjacent Nikola Tesla B thermal power plant as a raw material in its cement production. In this way, it will help to clear the Nikola Tesla B plant’s 1600 hectare ash dumps, from which only 180,000t of ash was harvested in 2023. Circularity has been front and centre of Holcim’s discussions of its growth in Serbia for some time. When Lafarge Srbija acquired aggregates producer Teko Mining Serbia in 2022, the group indicated that the business would play a part in its development of construction and demolition materials (CDM)-based cement and concrete.
Holcim’s Strategy 2025 growth plan entails bolt-on acquisitions in ‘mature markets,’ backed by strategic divestments elsewhere. Other companies have been more explicit about a realignment towards metropolitan markets, above all in North America, at a time when they are also diversifying away from cement and into other materials. Just why a leading producer should look to build cement capacity in Serbia warrants investigation.
Serbia is the only Central Balkan member of Cembureau, the European cement association. In a European market report for 2022, the association attributed to it the continent’s fastest declining cement consumption (jointly with Slovakia), down by 11% year-on-year. Like the rest of Europe, Serbia is also gradually shrinking, its population dwindling by 0.7% year-on-year to 6.62m in 2023, which limits hopes for a longer-term recovery. Serbia remains the largest country in the Central Balkans, with 39% of the total regional population.
Several factors have compounded Serbia’s difficulties as a cement-producing country. Firstly, like the Nikola Tesla B thermal power plant, its kilns run on coal. 50% of this coal originated in Russia and Ukraine in 2021, causing the entire operation to become ‘imperilled’ after the former’s brutal invasion of the latter in February 2022, according to the Serbian Cement Industry Association. In planning terms, this was a case of putting half one’s eggs in two baskets – and dropping them both.
Secondly, Serbia’s choice of export markets is mainly confined to either the EU or global markets via the River Danube, Black Sea and Mediterranean. Either way, it is in competition with a cement exporting giant: Türkiye. Serbia sold €19.7m-worth of cement in the EU in 2023, up by 63% over the three-year period since 2020 – 31% behind Türkiye’s €28.8m (more than double its 2020 figure).1 One other Central Balkan country had a greater reliance on the EU market: Bosnia & Herzegovina. It exported €48.4m-worth of cement there, quadruple its 2020 figure and behind only China (€133m) and the UK (€54.7) in cement exports to the bloc by value.
Bosnia & Herzegovina’s cement industry underwent a different permutation at the start of 2024: an acquisition, replacing one EU-based player with another. Lukavac Cement, which operates the 800,000t/yr Lukavac cement plant in Tuzla, changed hands from Austria-based building materials producer Asamer Baustoffe to Hungary-based property developer Talentis International Construction. Talentis International Construction belongs to one of Hungary’s major family-owned conglomerates, Mészáros Csoport.
Besides Central Europe, Balkan countries have found a ready source of investments in the past decade in China. In construction alone, Chinese investments total €13.2bn in Serbia, €2.4bn in Bosnia & Herzegovina, €915m in Montenegro and €650m in North Macedonia.2 This can be a booster shot to all-important domestic cement markets, but has some risks. Montenegro previously faced bankruptcy after Export-Import Bank of China began to call in an €847m loan for construction of the still upcoming A1 motorway in the country’s Northern Region. This did not put off the Montenegrin government from signing a new memorandum of understanding (MoU) with China-based Shandong Foreign Economic and Technical Cooperation and Shandong Luqiao Group for construction of a new €54m coast road in the Coastal Region in mid-2023.
In Montenegro, UK-based private equity firm Chayton Capital is currently funding a feasibility study for a partly state-owned cement plant and building materials complex at the Pljevlja energy hub in the Northern Region. Along with an upgrade to the existing Pljevlja coal-fired power plant, the project will cost €700m.
In 2026, EU member states will begin to partly tax third-country imports of cement and other products against their specific CO2 emissions, progressing to the implementation of a 100% Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) by 2034. Montenegro led the Central Balkans’ preparations for the EU’s CBAM roll-out with the introduction of its own emissions trading system in early 2021. Bosnia & Herzegovina will follow its example by 2026, but other countries in the region have struggled to conceive of the arrangement except as part of future EU accession agreements.
Based on the average specific CO2 emissions of cement produced in the EU, the World Bank has forecast that exporters to the bloc will be disadvantaged if their own specific emissions exceed 5.52kg CO2eq/€.3 By contrast, any figure below this ought to offer an increased competitive edge. Albanian cement has average emissions of 4.71kg CO2eq/€, 15% below ‘biting point’ and 13% below Türkiye’s 5.39CO2eq/€. Albania’s government consolidated its anticipated gains by quintupling the coal tax for 2024 to €0.15/kg. The figure is based on the International Monetary Fund’s recommended minimum CO2 emissions tax of €55.80/t, 21% shy of the current EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) credit price of €70.49/t.4
The Central Balkans is a region of apparently slow markets and industry growth regardless – to 11 cement plants, following the completion of current and upcoming projects. A recurrent theme of capital expenditure investments and the way investors talk about them may help to explain this: sustainability. Looking at the mix of technologies in the current nine plants, these include wet kilns and fuels lines built for conventional fossil fuels. This is not to presume that any given plant might not be happy with its existing equipment as is. Nonetheless, the overall picture is of a set of veteran plants with scope to benefit from the kind of investments which all four global cement producers active in the region are already carrying out elsewhere in Europe. Such plans may already be in motion. In late 2023, Titan Cement Group’s North Macedonian subsidiary Cementarnica Usje secured shareholder approval to take two new loans of up to €27m combined.
As the latest news from Serbia showed, taking care of existing plants does not preclude also building new ones. The cement industry of the Central Balkans is finding its position in the new reduced-CO2 global cement trade – one in which old and new work together.
References
1. Trend Economy, ‘European Union – Imports and Exports – Articles of cement,’ 28 January 2024, https://trendeconomy.com/data/h2/EuropeanUnion/6810#
2. American Enterprise Institute, 'China Global Investment Tracker,' 3 February 2024 https://www.aei.org/china-global-investment-tracker/
3. World Bank Group, ‘Relative CBAM Exposure Index,’ 15 June 2023, https://www.worldbank.org/en/data/interactive/2023/06/15/relative-cbam-exposure-index
4. Ember, 'Carbon Price Tracker,' 26 August 2024, https://ember-climate.org/data/data-tools/carbon-price-viewer/
Update on the UK, June 2024
26 June 2024The Hillhead Quarrying, Construction and Recycling Show is in full flow this week, taking place near Buxton in Derbyshire. As one delegate marvelled on the panoramic minibus journey down to the quarry, “It’s like a music festival without the music and… other stuff.” Indeed. Of course what one doesn’t find at Glastonbury and the like is a near comprehensive range of suppliers, over 600 of them, to the industry all in one place… in a quarry! Where else can one get up close and see the new hydrogen-powered generators and excavating vehicles that are being piloted? The official attendance figures don’t get released until after the event but on the ground it looks as busy as ever. It’s truly the place to be this week.
The show gives us a reason to take a look at the UK cement sector. Like many other countries around the world it is an election year in the UK, with a General Election scheduled for 4 July 2024. The result of this should determine the next Prime Minister and the ruling party. So, naturally, the MPA, the trade association for the aggregates, asphalt, cement, concrete, dimension stone, lime, mortar and industrial sand industries, is taking the opportunity to remind the political parties what its priorities are. The quick version is: support for decarbonisation; a streamlined planning system; and better delivery of projects. This sounds familiar to priorities in other countries but one British spin on this includes the UK’s carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM).
Graph 1: Domestic cement sales and imports in the UK, 2017 – 2022. Source: MPA.
Edwin Trout’s feature on the UK cement sector in the June 2024 issue of Global Cement Magazine presents a good overview of the last 12 months. The general UK economy has faced shocks in recent years such as Brexit, Covid-19 and the war in Ukraine. However, this has been further compounded by a downturn and high interest rates since late 2022 when the then Prime Minister Liz Truss caused market turbulence in the wake of a badly received government financial statement. As Trout relates, sales of heavy building materials have been in relative decline since mid-2022 with more of the same expected in 2024. Production of cement in 2023 is currently uncertain given the reporting time lag from the MPA but up until 2022 domestic cement sales fell somewhat but imports grew. This has created a situation where overall cement sales in 2022 were 12Mt, not far behind the annual level in the early 2000s. However, the share of imports has nearly doubled since then. More recent MPA data on mortar and ready-mixed concrete sales throughout the first nine months of 2023 suggest that market activity has decreased and poor weather at the start of 2024 looks set to have made this worse.
Despite the apparent slowdown in building materials sales the cement companies have been conducting smaller-scale maintenance and upgrade projects at their facilities and supply chain schemes such as the cement storage unit for deep sea shipping lines that Aggregate Industries said in February 2024 it was going to build at the Port of Southampton. The news the cement companies want to show off has been a steady stream of information about ongoing decarbonisation projects in the cement sector. C-Capture started a carbon capture trial at Heidelberg Materials’ Ketton cement works in Rutland in May 2024, Capsol Technologies said in March 2024 that it had been selected to conduct a study on its carbon capture technology at Aggregate Industries Cauldon cement plant in Staffordshire, Heidelberg Materials' Ribblesdale cement plant in Lancashire announced in March 2024 that it was taking part in a study to assess the use of ammonia as a hydrogen source for fuelling cement kilns and Heidelberg Materials awarded Japan-based Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI) a front end engineering design contract for a carbon capture installation at its Padeswood cement plant in Flintshire in February 2024. Finally, on the divestment front, CRH completed the sale of its UK-based lime business to SigmaRoc for €155m in March 2024. The business operates from sites in Tunstead and Hindlow with five permitted lime kilns.
That’s it for this short recap on the UK for now. For a longer look at the UK cement sector read Edwin Trout’s feature in June 2024 issue of Global Cement Magazine.
Hillhead 2024 runs until 27 June 2024
UK cement industry endorses CBAM proposal
14 June 2024UK: The UK cement industry has welcomed the government's proposal for a UK carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) but urged for its implementation by 2026 to align with the EU CBAM and avoid competitive disadvantages. The Mineral Products Association (MPA) and UK Concrete responded to the government’s consultation, highlighting the need to level the carbon-cost playing field between domestic production and imports, as well as to prevent high-emission cement imports from impacting the UK market. It emphasised the urgency of introducing CBAM in 2026 rather than the proposed 2027, to prevent import diversion from the EU.
The MPA is calling for accurate measurement and reporting of embodied emissions by importers, clear calculation of CBAM rates, improved transparency in UK trade data and strict enforcement procedures with high penalties for non-compliance.
MPA executive director for energy and climate change Diana Casey said "The UK has a great opportunity to accelerate the transition to net zero while securing domestic cement supply for priority construction like housing and infrastructure. A well-designed CBAM is vital to maintain the level playing field and ensuring competitiveness of domestic cement production while it continues its transition to net zero.’
Europe: Cembureau has released an update to its net zero roadmap. The roadmap now aims for a 37% reduction in CO₂ emissions related to cement production by 2030, 78% by 2040 and net zero cement production by 2050, with potential to become carbon negative.
The roadmap also states the key policy measures needed to meet these updated goals, including: The implementation of a watertight carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM), the increase in funding for decarbonisation initiatives, the need for guaranteed access to affordable decarbonised energy, infrastructure and raw materials, as well as the creation of lead markets for low carbon, circular products.
President of Cembureau, Ken McKnight said "In the past four years, the European cement sector has clearly moved from ambition to deployment. We have the potential to scale up our climate ambition, but we need policymakers to match this ambition through decisive policies."
Polish cement industry advances with CCS technology
19 April 2024Poland: Polish cement producers are set to build carbon capture installations, supported by government policies. After a decline in production from nearly 19Mt in 2022 to about 16.5Mt in 2023, the industry is facing an increase in cheaper imports from outside the EU, particularly Ukraine, and CO₂ emission fees that account for 30% of the cost of 1t of cement, according to the Dziennik Gazeta Prawna newspaper. The EU has also introduced a carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) for imports.
Despite these challenges, the Kujawy cement plant in Bielawy, owned by Holcim, is launching the large-scale implementation of carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology.
Holcim Polska's president, Maciej Sypek, said "The construction of carbon capture installations in our plants will cost between €320m and €400m. We received a €264m grant from the European Commission's Innovation Fund." According to Sypek, the project is currently in the design phase, with construction expected to start in 2025 and operations beginning in early 2028.
The implementation of CCS at the Kujawy plant could potentially lead to an industry-wide adoption of the technology, costing between US$3.7bn and US$4.9bn, according to the newspaper. Holcim Polska plans to liquefy the CO₂ and transport it by rail to a terminal in Gdańsk, where it will be shipped to the North Sea for underground storage. Cement producers are urging the Polish government to appoint a commissioner for CCS infrastructure and to enact legislative changes to support the construction of such installations. They also believe that rapid modernisation of the energy sector needs to occur to support the energy-intensive process of gas capture.
Cemsuisse urges CBAM adjustment for cement industry
25 March 2024Switzerland: The decision of the Swiss government in June 2023 against the implementation of a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) has been strongly criticised by the Swiss cement association, Cemsuisse. The association warns of a potential relocation of the Swiss cement industry without such a mechanism, referencing a report by Polynomics. This report concludes that a Swiss CBAM is necessary to level the playing field with EU and non-EU cement suppliers. The EU initiated a CBAM test phase in October 2023, aiming to mitigate production relocation risks to countries with less stringent environmental regulations.
The federal government concluded that a CBAM in Switzerland would benefit few emission-intensive industries at the expense of the wider economy, while also facing regulatory and trade policy risks. It plans to reassess the need for a CBAM in mid-2026, in line with the EU's interim CBAM report.
Cemsuisse, referencing the Polynomics report, states that waiting to potentially introduce a CBAM in Switzerland is not an option. Investments in carbon capture and storage (CCS) are deemed essential for Switzerland's net-zero climate goal and without a CBAM, there is a risk of these investments being unviable due to uncertainty over cost recovery.
The report also points to the risk of increased clinker imports from third countries into the EU, which would be processed and then exported to Switzerland without CBAM levies. As an example, Cemsuisse mentions a planned milling station in Ottmarsheim, Alsace. It says that without a CBAM, the production site in Switzerland faces serious threats.
Cemsuisse said “Without CBAM, this certainty is lacking. And without CCUS, long-term production in Switzerland won't be viable. The population has accepted the climate protection law last summer, where the net-zero goal is legally anchored."
Update on Türkiye, March 2024
13 March 2024TürkÇimento revealed this week that cement production in Türkiye grew by 10.5% year-on-year to 81.5Mt in 2023. In a press release describing the progress of the local cement sector, the cement association reported that domestic sales rose by 19% to 65Mt but that exports fell by 28% to just under 20Mt. Fatih Yücelik, the chair of TürkÇimento, also said that his country was the second largest exporter of cement in the world in 2023 and that its most important target market was the US. He noted that the construction sector grew by 8% during 2023, that reconstruction projects were enacted following earthquakes in early 2023 but that no further growth in domestic sales of cement was anticipated in 2024.
As is standard for these kinds of occasions, Yücelik also raised the association’s sustainability ambitions, describing his sector as one “whose main goal is to provide low-carbon production.” He added that the Turkish cement industry supports the country’s net zero target of 2053. To this end the association has also released its first sustainability report, for 2022, covering 48 of the country’s 52 integrated plants. The Hürriyet Daily News newspaper offered one reason for this enthusiasm for sustainability: the US$30bn in investment required to meet that 2053 net-zero target. It also reported that Yücelik said that the industry needed to spend US$2bn towards meeting the incoming requirements of the European Union Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM).
Graph 1: Domestic and export cement sales in Türkiye, January – October, 2017 – 2023. Source: TürkÇimento.
TürkÇimento’s data for 2023 currently runs up to October 2023 but it supports Yücelik’s assessment. As can be seen in Graph 1, domestic sales of cement rose sharply in the first 10 months of 2023, by 20% year-on-year to 53.1Mt, yet exports fell almost as abruptly, by 18% to 13Mt. This is noteworthy, as exports had been rising steadily each year since 2018. Italy-based Cementir provided some context here in its annual report for 2023 saying that it had decided to focus on the domestic market due to greater profitability. Heidelberg Materials’ joint-venture Akçansa echoes these comments, blaming declining exports on “historically low freight rates increasing competitiveness of southeast Asian suppliers” while emphasising that the shift to the domestic market was made to meet increasing demand.
Graph 2: Revenue of selected large Turkish cement producers, 2022 - 2023. Source: Company reports.
Financial information from the larger Turkish cement producers that have released their results for 2023 follows the same pattern. Three of the four companies included in Graph 2 saw sales revenue grow in 2023. The one that saw its revenue fall, Nuh Çimento, is a major exporter. In 2022 for example it supplied 18% of the country’s total cement exports. All of these companies saw operating profit or earnings increase though.
The other big Türkiye-based news story this week was that Taiwan Cement Corporation (TCC) completed the latest increase to its stakes of Cimpor Global Holdings joint-ventures in Türkiye and Portugal. TCC now owns a 60% stake of the business in Türkiye and a 100% stake in Portugal. With respect to the business in Türkiye this means that TCC now has control of the country’s largest cement producer, OYAK Çimento. Once again the CBAM received a mention, with TCC saying in its valedictory statement that it believed that, “whether it's domestic or imported cement, low-carbon cement will become the main competitive advantage for the cement companies entering the European market.”
The domestic market in Türkiye may have seen a bounce in 2023 but the attention of both TürkÇimento, TCC and others are firmly set on the wider market in the region. TürkÇimento’s Fatih Yücelik said that the country’s cement production capacity was 120Mt/yr and that the population would have to be 150m to eliminate the need for exports. Its population is currently just under 85m. Yücelik set a value of US$2bn for his sector to adjust to CBAM but he also remarked that the income from exports in 2023 was around US$1.3bn. This is not an easy investment ‘pill’ to swallow but one that the country will have to digest if it wants to keep its export levels up.
Türkiye: The Turkish cement industry needs to invest approximately US$30bn to achieve its net-zero carbon goal by 2053, according to sector representatives. Additionally, around US$2bn is required to adhere to the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), according to Fatih Yücelik, chair of the Turkish Cement Manufacturers’ Association (TÜRKÇİMENTO).
Yücelik said “The most important issue for us this year is carbon emissions. The amount of investments to be made swiftly in transformation and efficiency work to overcome the barriers created by the CBAM is around US$2bn. However, under the current situation, it is difficult for us to find this financing.”
There are 77 factories producing cement in Türkiye, according to Yücelik. “They all use kilns which heavily consume energy. We are establishing waste heat recovery facilities. The amount of electricity generated by those units can power 618,000 homes,” he said. The industry also faces rising operational costs, with energy comprising about 80% of these expenses.