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Update on China, September 2021

01 September 2021

It’s time for a macroscopic view of the Chinese cement sector this week with the release of the half-year financial results by some of the larger Chinese cement producers. On the national level the picture so far in 2021 has been one of continued recovery from the coronavirus lockdowns at the start of the year and then a slowing market as state controls on real estate speculation started to take effect. However, poor weather in the spring and mounting raw material prices appear to have compounded the effects of the real estate regulations, leading to price falls.

Cement output data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China in Graph 1 shows that local production took a knock in the first quarter of 2020 due to the coronavirus pandemic and this strongly recovered in the same period in 2021. The market recovered fast in mid-2020 and so the year-on-year growth for the second quarter was less in 2021. Output on a monthly basis remained ahead year-on-year from April 2020 and stayed ahead until May 2021. However, output in June 2021 was behind the figure in June 2020 and the figure for July 2021 was behind both July 2020 and July 2019.

Graph 1: Cement output by quarter in China, 2019 – mid-2021. Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China.

Graph 1: Cement output by quarter in China, 2019 – mid-2021. Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China.

The Chinese Cement Association (CCA) was lamenting falling cement prices at the start of July 2021. It blamed the situation on slowing infrastructure development in some regions, increasing government restrictions on real estate development, especially poor mid-year weather and higher input prices such as for steel. China Resources Cement (CRC) expanded upon the point about increasing real estate regulations in its financial results for the first half of 2021 explaining that the Chinese government has been promoting a policy that aims to ensure that “residential properties are not for speculation” including controls on the financing of real estate. Later in mid-August 2021 the CCA reported that prices were recovering in east and central-southern regions although the situation remained poor in Guizhou province with shipments down to 60% of normal levels. Production control measures are expected to be implemented to stabilise the situation.

Graph 2: Sales revenue of large Chinese cement producers in first half of year, 2019 – 2021. Source: Company reports.

Graph 2: Sales revenue of large Chinese cement producers in first half of year, 2019 – 2021. Source: Company reports.

On the corporate side the sales revenue from some of the large Chinese cement producers mostly show the usual gap-tooth pattern that coronavirus has created everywhere as the market recovered. Notably Anhui Conch managed to avoid falling sales year-on-year in the first half of 2020. However, the CCA’s observation above about rising input costs is visible in the falling profits of some (but not all) of the companies covered here. For example, Anhui Conch’s net profit fell by 7% year-on-year to US$2.32bn in the first half of 2021. It blamed this on a significant rise in the price of raw coal. CRC also reported falling profits attributable to increased production costs.

CNBM reported an increase to cement and clinker sales volumes of 7.6% to 177Mt and concrete sales volumes by 13.4% to 52Mm3. It noted that, “In the first half of 2021, the national cement market showed the characteristics of high price level fluctuation adjustment.” From January to April 2021 local fiscal policy boosted demand for cement but from May 2021 continuous heavy rainfall and increasing bulk commodity prices slowed infrastructure project development. Anhui Conch’s cement and clinker sales volumes for both production and trading grew by 11.5% to 208Mt. It reported stable market demand in eastern, central and southern regions but noted falling prices in the west.

Looking ahead, two issues, among many, to consider are carbon trading and imports. The former has been coming for a while and was launched formally online nationally in mid-July 2021 for the power generation industry. The carbon price was nearly Euro7/t in late July 2021 in China compared to around Euro53/t in the European Union. Cement and steel are expected to join the Chinese national scheme in the next phase although analysts believe that issues such as data gathering, permit allocation rules, accounting standards, sector reduction targets and related financial support all need to be improved before this can happen. Imports are a connected issue and it has been interesting in recent months to hear financial analysts point out the risks, for example, of major exporting nations such as Vietnam relying on China so much. The CCA reckons that China imported 33.4Mt of clinker in 2020, an increase of 47% year-on-year, with 60% of this derived from Vietnam. With the Chinese government trying to tackle cement production overcapacity and meet growing environmental targets, imports look set to become a ‘hot ticket’ issue. In this context it is telling to see talk from the CCA of ensuring standards for imports such as verified carbon emissions. Naturally, the imports that could be trusted the most will probably be the ones from plants that Chinese cement producers have built themselves overseas. As waste importers into China found out previously, relying heavily on one market with strong state controls carries considerable risks. Cement exporters in South-East Asia take note.

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China Tianrui Group increases sales and profit in first half of 2021

23 August 2021

China: China Tianrui Group has recorded first-half consolidated sales of US$883m in 2021, up by 9% year-on-year from US$809m in the first half of 2020. Cement sales volumes grew by 10.6% to 17.5Mt from 15.8Mt. Its profit attributable to owners was US$116m, up by 5% from US$111m. The group reported that the national cement industry recorded record production in the first half of 2021 however this slowed in May and June due to poor weather and increasing commodity prices.

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Magotteaux reports flood damage to plants in Belgium

28 July 2021

Belgium: Magotteaux says that its production plants at Vaux-sous-Chèvremont and Trooz near Liege were ‘severely hit’ by flooding in mid-July 2021. The industrial equipment and services supplier is currently assessing the extent of the damage but production is expected to be affected. It reported that all of its staff were safe following the incident.

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JK Cement predicts sales growth for 2022 financial year

05 July 2021

India: JK Cement has targeted a 10% year-on-year sales growth in its 2022 financial year, which ends on 31 March 2022. The Economic Times has reported that the company foresees sales growth due to the on-going government infrastructure investment push, minimal monsoon disruptions and pent-up cement demand following Covid-19-led disruptions. Cement chief operating officer Rajnish Kapur said that growth momentum from the end of the 2021 financial year will likely continue throughout the coming nine months, despite a Covid-19 led sales drop in the first quarter of the 2021 financial year.

The cement producer also expects that its new cement plant project at Panna in Madhya Pradesh is likely to be completed in the 2023 financial year due to Covid-19 related delays. The plant will bring its total cement production capacity to around 20Mt/yr from nearly 15Mt/yr at present once it is finished. The company is also considering acquisitions to further increase its capacity to 25Mt/yr by the mid-2020s.

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Gas shortage stalls cement and concrete production in northern Mexico

23 February 2021

Mexico: Nearly 500 cement and concrete plants in the northern Mexican states of Chihuahua, Coahuila, Nuevo León and Sonora have partly or fully suspended production due to an on-going regional shortage of natural gas. The El Financiero newspaper reports that plants run by Grupo Cementos Chihuahua (GCC), Cemex, Holcim and Cruz Azul operate in this region.

GCC said that a lack of electricity and natural gas had affected production at three of its plants in Chihuahua, Samalayuca and Juárez. Mexican Association of the Ready-mix Concrete Industry (AMIC) president Ana Laura Burciaga said that the situation has caused a 50% drop in the cement supply to concrete plants.

The cause of the shortage is reported to be the suspension of natural gas exports from Texas, US. Mexican steel and automotive manufacturers have also been affected.

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Yorkshire Water tests new concrete surface technology in the UK

14 January 2021

UK: Yorkshire Water is trialling a new concrete surface applicant designed to prolong the lifespan of concrete. It says that the alumina and zirconia silicate ceramic surface treatment protects concrete from wet/dry and freeze/thaw cycles, peeling, flaking, chalking and delaminating. This reduces the need for replacement of concrete structures, reducing CO2 intensity by 43% compared to bare concrete, according to the company. Advanced materials producer Haydale supplied the product.

Senior project manager Jonathan LeMoine said “In early 2021 we will be using one of our capital partners to apply the material to a number of our chemical bunds. The results will be immediately apparent and will pave the way for a larger programme of works protecting our assets.” He added “We often invest in trialling new technologies and techniques to pave the way for lower emissions in our capital expenditure (CAPEX) and operating expenditure (OPEX) solutions. We’re excited to see the results from this trial, and hope that it will provide a low carbon alternative to demolishing and rebuilding.”

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Caribbean Cement produces record volumes of cement in 2020

13 January 2021

Jamaica: Caribbean Cement says that it produced a record 0.94Mt of cement in 2020 due to market demand. This has been attributed to capital investment, positive government policies in response to the coronavirus pandemic, the company’s own reaction and the ‘expertise’ of its employees. It said it did not experience an overall loss of productive time due to closures related to the public health situation. Heavy rainfall, inconsistent power supplies and disruptions to mining in the third quarter of 2020 prevented the cement producer from surpassing 1Mt for the year.

“The market responded opposite to what might have been expected given the pandemic. Instead of slowing down, construction grew, and we kept in step with our customers by meeting their demand consistently. We will continue to ramp up production as the market grows,” said Yago Castro, General Manager of Caribbean Cement. He added, “The Government of Jamaica assessed the situation well and allowed critical sectors to continue operating once certain protocols were followed. Prioritising health, while keeping economic goals in mind, have mitigated against the negative impact on our sector.”

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Anhui Conch’s net profits rise 17.9% year-on-year

22 August 2019

China: The net profit of Anhui Conch Cement in the first half of 2019 was US$2.15bn, up 17.9% from US$2.11bn at the close of the first half of 2018. Anhui Conch’s interim report stated that the gross profit margin increased in the eastern and central regions by 2.67% and 0.51% respectively in response to steadily increasing market demand, and remained flat year-on-year in the southern region in spite of adverse weather precipitating a decline in the local market.

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Libyan Cement Company suffers from import issues, weather and conflict

07 August 2019

Libya: The Libyan Cement Company (LCC) says taxes, poor weather and local fighting have hampered its progress over the last year. The introduction of a 183% Foreign Exchange Tax in the last quarter of 2018 has tripled the price of imported spare parts, supplies and capital goods. This has delayed repairs to the cement producer’s plants. However the company believes that the tax may be lowered in the near future. A long and wet winter has also been blamed for reducing the demand for cement and reducing the company’s cash flow.

Fighting in Tripoli has affected the LCC’s operations in the east of the country with multi-month long interruptions to the supply of raw materials. It said that key roads have recently been re-opened following negotiations relieving the situation and that it hopes they will stay open.

The company said that it is still working towards a Euro200m upgrade project to its plant in Benghazi. The plan is to increase the unit’s production capacity to 3Mt/yr from 2Mt/yr.

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Vicat fights poor markets in Turkey, Switzerland, Indian and West Africa in first half of 2019

02 August 2019

France: Vicat’s sales rose by 4.6% year-on-year to Euro1.34bn in the first half of 2019 from Euro1.28bn in the same period in 2018. This was mainly due to its acquisition of Brazil’s Ciplan in late 2018. At constant scope and exchange rates its sales fell by 0.6% due to poor markets in Turkey, Switzerland, Indian and West Africa. Its earnings before interest and tax fell by 9.4% to Euro97m from Euro107m. Cement sales volumes dropped by 4.9% to 10.8Mt from 11.4Mt and concrete volumes decreased by 6.7% to 4.3Mm3 from 4.57Mm3.

“In the first half of 2019, solid performances in France, Asia and the US drove an increase in our sales and earnings before interest, taxation, deprecation and amortisation (EBITDA). These results reflect a marked improvement in the operational profitability given the on-going increase in consumed energy costs, the deteriorating macroeconomic situation in Turkey and the exceptional rainfalls in California that we experienced in the first half,” said Guy Sidos, the group’s chief executive officer (CEO).

By region, the group’s sales and earnings rose in France but fell in the rest of Europe. Sales grew in the Americas region, even without the Ciplan acquisition, but earnings fell due to a Euro10.6mn settlement payment booked in the US in the first half of 2018. The group’s sales fell in India but earnings rose due to price increases. Poor markets in Turkey and Egypt hit sales and caused a loss.

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