Displaying items by tag: Government
Update on Ukraine, May 2024
15 May 2024Before Russia invaded mainland Ukraine on 24 February 2023, many predicted that full-scale conflict would be averted. When the attack began, Russian President Vladimir Putin himself expected a 10-day war, according to think tank RUSI.1 15 May 2024 marks two years, two months and three weeks of fighting, with no end in sight.
Ukrcement, the Ukrainian cement association, recently published its cement market data for 2023, the first full year of the war. The data showed domestic cement consumption of 5.4Mt, up by 17% year-on-year from 4.6Mt in 2022, but down by 49% from pre-war levels of 10.6Mt in 2021. In 2023, Ukraine’s 14.8Mt/yr production capacity was 2.7 times greater than its consumption, compared to 1.4 times in 2021. Of Ukraine’s nine cement plants, one (the 1.8Mt/yr Amwrossijiwka plant in Donetsk Oblast) now lies behind Russian lines. Four others sit within 300km of the front line in Eastern and Southern Ukraine. Among these, the 4.4Mt/yr Balakliia plant in Kharkiv Oblast, the largest in the country, first fell to the Russians, but was subsequently liberated in September 2022.
Before the war, Ukrcement’s members held a 95% share in the local cement market. Their only competitors were Turkish cement exporters across the Black Sea, after the Ukrainian Interdepartmental Commission on International Trade successfully implemented anti-dumping duties against cement from Moldova and now-sanctioned Belarus and Russia in 2019. Since then, Turkish cement, has also become subject to tariffs of 33 – 51% upon entry into Ukraine until September 2026. The relative shortfall in consumption has led Ukraine’s cement producers to lean on their own export markets. They increased their exports by 33% year-on-year to 1.24Mt in 2023, 330,000t (27%) of it to neighbouring Poland.
Russia’s invasion has made 3.5m Ukrainians homeless and put the homes of 2.4m more in need of repair. In a report published in Ukrainian, the US Agency for International Development (USAID) set out its three-year rebuilding plan for the country. USAID projects an investment cost of €451bn, with the ‘main task’ besides homebuilding being to increase the share of industrial production in the economy. Ukraine is 90% equipped to produce all building materials required under the plan. Their production, in turn, will create or maintain 100,000 jobs and US$6.5bn in tax revenues. Reconstruction will also involve the Ukrainian cement industry returning to close to full capacity utilisation, producing 15 – 16Mt/yr of cement.
CRH, an established local player of 25 years, looks best set to claim a share of the proceeds. Stepping down an order of magnitude from billions to millions, Global Cement recently reported CRH’s total investments in Ukraine to date as €465m. Since war broke out, the company has more than tripled its rate of investment, to €74.5m. The Ireland-based group is in the protracted administrative process of acquiring the Ukrainian business of Italy-based Buzzi. If successful, the deal will raise its Ukrainian capacity by 56%, to 8.4Mt/yr – 57% of national capacity. This unusual clumping of ownership may be made possible by the participation of European Bank for Reconstruction and Development in partly acquiring the assets, as per a mandate letter signed with CRH in 2023.
Leading Ukrainian cement buyer Kovalska Industrial-Construction Group bemoaned the anticipated increase in market concentration. On the one hand, this sounds like a classic tiff between cement producers and users with shallow pockets. On the other hand, an antebellum allegation of cement industry cartelisation should give us pause for thought. Non-governmental organisation The Antitrust League previously reported Ukraine’s four cement producers to the government’s Anti-Monopoly Committee for alleged anticompetitive behavior. This was in September 2021, when Ukraine was barely out of lockdown, let alone up in arms. With all that has happened since, it may seem almost ancient history, yet the players are the same, CRH and Buzzi among them.
Ukrcement and its members have secured favourable protections from the Trade Commission, and, for whatever reasons, evaded the inconvenience of investigation by the Anti-Monopoly Committee – a state of affairs over which the Antitrust League called the committee ‘very weak.’ The league says that producers previously raised prices by 35 – 50% in the three years up to 2021. In planning a fair and equitable reconstruction, Ukrainians might reasonably seek assurance that this will not happen again.
All these discussions are subject to a time-based uncertainty: the end of the war in Ukraine. A second question is where the finances might come from. The EU approved funding for €17bn in grants and €33bn in loans for Ukraine on 14 May 2024. Meanwhile, countries including the UK have enacted legislation to ensure Russia settles the cost of the conflict at war’s end. If Ukraine achieves its military aims, then the finances may flow from the same direction as did the armaments that demolished Ukrainian infrastructure in the first place.
The first piece of Ukraine annexed by Russia was Crimea in February 2014, making the invasion over a decade old. Against such a weight of tragedy, the country cannot lose sight of the coming restoration work, and of the need to ensure that it best serve Ukrainians.
Clinker is the new gold in Kenya
08 May 2024Kenya-based East African Portland Cement (EAPCC) made the news this week with the reopening of the company’s Athi River cement plant after a month-long shutdown. The closure was conspicuous because the company is gradually working towards increasing the integrated plant’s production capacity. The first phase of the maintenance and upgrade project saw the replacement of the production line’s kiln shell in September 2022. The current aim is to increase the unit’s cement production capacity to 1Mt/yr by mid-2026. The recent shutdown appears to have been a more normal annual renewal and repair job but EAPCC has used it as a promotional opportunity. Notably, a spokesperson for EAPCC described clinker as the “new gold” in a recent video explaining what was going on.
It’s an improvement on the financial trouble EAPC found itself stuck within in the late 2010s before the government ended up taking a controlling share in the cement producer. On this front local media reported in July 2023 that the government had found a 'strategic investor' to buy a 30% stake in the company. Nothing more has been said on this topic since then though.
The highlighting of the recent shutdown is likely to be a public relations exercise intended to project stability, but that focus on clinker is telling given that the government introduced its Export and Investment Promotion Levy in July 2023. This legislation imposed a 17.5% fee on imported clinker in order to encourage the local industry. Cement producers that rely on imported clinker - including Rai Cement, Bamburi Cement, Savannah Cement, Ndovu Cement and Riftcot - attempted to lobby against the levy but it remains in place. This business environment helps to explain EAPCC’s renewed focus on clinker production.
One company that stands to benefit from the levy is National Cement, producer of the Simba Cement brand and a subsidiary of Devki Group. It made the news at the start of April 2024 when its subsidiary Cemtech commissioned a 6000t/day clinker plant at Sebit in West Pokot. National Cement already operates an integrated plant near Athi River, south of Nairobi. However, hot on the heels of the West Pokot plant, it is already considering building another integrated plant in the north of Kitui County, to the east of Nairobi. As reported in the local press this week, Cemtech has submitted an environmental impact assessment for the project to the local authorities.
The country has two other clinker producers: Holcim subsidiary Bamburi Cement and Mombasa Cement. The former company announced at the end of 2023 that it had signed a contract to build solar plants at its integrated plant in Mombasa and its grinding plant in Nairobi. The deal was framed as a money saver but additionally it may have been in response to a less than reliable local grid. It also said that it was removing Ordinary Portland Cement (OPC) from its product line from the start of 2024. This move challenged expectations about sustainability initiatives outside of richer countries. Yet, considering how Bamburi Cement argued against the clinker levy, there might have been some commercial thinking here too in order to sell products that use less clinker. Finally, despite completing its divestment of Uganda-based subsidiary Hima Cement for US$84m in March 2024, Bamburi Cement reported a loss of US$2.99m in 2023 compared to a profit of US$1.36m in 2022. Although it reported a rise in turnover and operating profit, it appears that taxes and legal costs related to the sale of Hima dragged the company into a loss.
Graph 1: Rolling annual cement production in Kenya, 2019 - September 2023. Source: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS).
It’s been a difficult business environment in Kenya over the last decade given the number of companies that have faced serious financial difficulties. This list includes ARM Cement, EAPCC and Savannah Cement. The last of these companies, Savannah Cement, is currently in administration and is trying to sell its integrated plant. Yet, rolling annual cement production in Kenya has remained above 9.5Mt/yr since early 2022. The government is sticking to promoting local clinker production, and companies like Bamburi Cement, EAPCC and National Cement are making investments of varying scales. The focus, for now at least, is on clinker production in Kenya.
Germany: Buzzi Unicem subsidiary Deuna Zement plans to invest €350m to install a carbon capture system at its cement plant in Deuna, having completed two feasibility studies. The Thüringer Allgemeine newspaper has reported that, when operational in 2029, the system will capture 620,000t/yr of CO2. This will make the Deuna cement plant carbon neutral. The company has applied for government funding for the project.
Buzzi Unicem said that its subsidiary is ‘Doing pioneering work on the path to decarbonising the cement industry.’ It added “The system will be efficient and take all relevant environmental considerations into account.”
Kenya: Cemtech, a subsidiary of Devki Group, has submitted an Environmental Impact Assessment report to the National Environment Management Authority for a new clinker plant in Kitui County. The company aims to receive approval from the Kenyan government to establish the plant, according to the Business Daily newspaper. The company says that the plant will boost local cement production and increase employment opportunities.
Malaysia: The state government of Sabah broke ground on the construction of the Kampung Kawayoi Pinangah cement plant in Tongod on 27 April 2024. Bernama Daily Malaysian News has reported the value of investment in the plant’s construction as US$252m. Chief Minister Datuk Seri Hajiji Noor said that it will enrich the local economy with 1000 new job opportunities.
Qizilqumsement allegedly paid above market price to gas supplier with links to Uzbek first family
26 April 2024Uzbekistan: Investigative reporting by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) has found evidence of a company linked to President Shavkat Mirziyoyev's son-in-law carrying out ‘secret state contracts.’ These included a US$36m ‘overpriced’ natural gas supply contract for Qizilqumsement. The company, Ultimo Group, is reportedly without website or public profile and co-owned by a retiree with no business background. RFE/RL described its network of associated international companies as ‘Byzantine.’
Update on Pakistan, April 2024
24 April 2024Changes are underway in South Asia’s second largest cement sector, with two legal developments that affect the industry set in motion in the past week. At a national level, the Competition Commission of Pakistan recommended that the government require cement producers to include production and expiry dates on the labels of bagged cement. Meanwhile, in Pakistan’s largest province, Punjab, a new law tightened procedures around the establishment and expansion of cement plants. At the same time, the country’s cement producers began to publish their financial results for the first nine months of the 2024 financial year (FY2024).
During the nine-month period up to 31 March 2024, the Pakistani cement industry sold 34.5Mt of cement, up by 3% year-on-year. Producers have responded to the growth with capacity expansions, including the launch of the new 1.3Mt/yr Line 3 of Attock Cement’s Hub cement plant in Balochistan on 17 April 2023. China-based contractor Hefei Cement Research & Design executed the project, including installation of a Loesche LM 56.3+3 CS vertical roller mill, giving the Hub plant a new, expanded capacity of 3Mt/yr.
Pressure has eased on the operating costs of Pakistani cement production, as inflation slowed and the country received a new government in March 2024, following political unrest in 2022 and 2023. Coal prices also settled back to 2019 levels, after prolonged agitation. Pakistan Today News reported the value of future coal supply contracts as US$93/t for June 2024, down by 2% over six months from US$95/t for January 2024.
Nonetheless, cost optimisation remained a ‘strong focus’ in the growth strategy of Fauji Cement, which switched to using local and Afghan coal at its plants during the past nine months. Its reliance on captive power rose to 60% of consumption, thanks to its commissioning of new waste heat recovery and solar power capacity. During the first nine months of FY2024, the company’s year-on-year sales growth of 14% narrowly offset cost growth of 13%, leaving it with net profit growth of 1%.
Looking more closely, the latest sales data from the All Pakistan Cement Manufacturers Association (APCMA) shows a stark divergence within cement producers’ markets. While exports recorded 68% year-on-year growth to 5.1Mt, domestic sales fell, by 4% to 29.4Mt. The association further breaks down Pakistani cement sales data into South Pakistan (Balochistan and Sindh) and North Pakistan (all other regions). Domestic sales dropped most sharply in South Pakistan, by 6% to 5.16Mt. In the North, they dropped by 3% to 24.2Mt. Part of the reason was a high base of comparison, following flooding-related reconstruction work nationally during the 2023 financial year. Meanwhile, the government finished rolling out track-and-trace on all cement despatches during the opening months of the current financial year, and commenced the implementation of axle load requirements for cement trucks. APCMA flagged both policies as potentially disruptive to its members’ domestic deliveries, amid a strong infrastructure project pipeline.
Pakistani producers suffer from overcapacity, but have established themselves as an important force in the global export market. They continue to locate new markets, including the UK in January 2024. Lucky Cement was among leading exporters overall, with a large share of its orders originating from Africa.
On 17 April 2024, the government of Punjab province set up a committee to assess new proposed cement projects, with the ultimate goal of conserving water. Falling water tables are considered a significant economic threat in agricultural Punjab. Besides completing an inspection by the new committee, proposed projects must also secure clearance from six different provincial government departments and the local government. While acknowledging the necessity of the cement industry, the government insisted that it will take legal action against any cement plant that exceeds water allowances.
Pakistan’s cement plants have grown in anticipation of a local market boom. Without this strong core of sales, underutilisation will remain troublesome, especially in North Pakistan where exposure is highest. At the same time, APCMA has given expression to the perceived lack of support affecting production and distribution. For an industry with expansionist aims, new restrictions on its growth and operations can feel like an existential menace.
Australia: Cement Australia has received a US$34.4m federal grant for a kiln upgrade to its Railton cement plant in Tasmania. The upgrade will allow the plant to raise its alternative fuels substitution rate. The project is funded by the government’s Powering the Regions initiative, with total investments valued at US$215m.
Australian Minister for Climate Change and Energy Chris Bowen said “This US$215m investment in Australia’s hard-to-abate manufacturing and mining facilities is about securing the future of high-quality, low-emissions products made right here. Northern Tasmania, Central Queensland and Western Australia have been industrial powerhouses for generations, and the government is ensuring that continues. As global markets change rapidly, we’re supporting Australian industry to not only survive but thrive with our world-class products that support regional jobs across the country.”
Adbri secures funding towards grinding and blending systems upgrade at Birkenhead cement plant
24 April 2024Australia: The Australian federal government has granted Adbri US$32.5m for a new front-end engineering and design study at its Birkenhead cement plant. The study will assess the possible installation of a new vertical roller mill and post-production blending system at the plant. InDaily News has reported that the proposed upgrade will increase the plant’s production capacity and help to expand its range of reduced-CO2 cements. The funding falls under the government’s US$260m Critical Inputs to Clean Energy programme, which aims to help decarbonise the Australian economy by 2050.
CEO Mark Irwin said “With the Commonwealth’s support we have the potential to further accelerate the decarbonisation of our operations and products.”
Kenya: Savannah Cement’s creditors voted in favour of administrator Peter Kahi’s debt reduction plan for the company on 16 April 2024. Kahi’s plan involves leasing out the site of the company’s Kitui plant, while also seeking a buyer for it.
Business Daily has reported that the Office of the Attorney General has declared Kahi's reappointment as administrator of Savannah Cement on 24 January 2024 as invalid.