Displaying items by tag: Import
Update on Ukraine, May 2024
15 May 2024Before Russia invaded mainland Ukraine on 24 February 2023, many predicted that full-scale conflict would be averted. When the attack began, Russian President Vladimir Putin himself expected a 10-day war, according to think tank RUSI.1 15 May 2024 marks two years, two months and three weeks of fighting, with no end in sight.
Ukrcement, the Ukrainian cement association, recently published its cement market data for 2023, the first full year of the war. The data showed domestic cement consumption of 5.4Mt, up by 17% year-on-year from 4.6Mt in 2022, but down by 49% from pre-war levels of 10.6Mt in 2021. In 2023, Ukraine’s 14.8Mt/yr production capacity was 2.7 times greater than its consumption, compared to 1.4 times in 2021. Of Ukraine’s nine cement plants, one (the 1.8Mt/yr Amwrossijiwka plant in Donetsk Oblast) now lies behind Russian lines. Four others sit within 300km of the front line in Eastern and Southern Ukraine. Among these, the 4.4Mt/yr Balakliia plant in Kharkiv Oblast, the largest in the country, first fell to the Russians, but was subsequently liberated in September 2022.
Before the war, Ukrcement’s members held a 95% share in the local cement market. Their only competitors were Turkish cement exporters across the Black Sea, after the Ukrainian Interdepartmental Commission on International Trade successfully implemented anti-dumping duties against cement from Moldova and now-sanctioned Belarus and Russia in 2019. Since then, Turkish cement, has also become subject to tariffs of 33 – 51% upon entry into Ukraine until September 2026. The relative shortfall in consumption has led Ukraine’s cement producers to lean on their own export markets. They increased their exports by 33% year-on-year to 1.24Mt in 2023, 330,000t (27%) of it to neighbouring Poland.
Russia’s invasion has made 3.5m Ukrainians homeless and put the homes of 2.4m more in need of repair. In a report published in Ukrainian, the US Agency for International Development (USAID) set out its three-year rebuilding plan for the country. USAID projects an investment cost of €451bn, with the ‘main task’ besides homebuilding being to increase the share of industrial production in the economy. Ukraine is 90% equipped to produce all building materials required under the plan. Their production, in turn, will create or maintain 100,000 jobs and US$6.5bn in tax revenues. Reconstruction will also involve the Ukrainian cement industry returning to close to full capacity utilisation, producing 15 – 16Mt/yr of cement.
CRH, an established local player of 25 years, looks best set to claim a share of the proceeds. Stepping down an order of magnitude from billions to millions, Global Cement recently reported CRH’s total investments in Ukraine to date as €465m. Since war broke out, the company has more than tripled its rate of investment, to €74.5m. The Ireland-based group is in the protracted administrative process of acquiring the Ukrainian business of Italy-based Buzzi. If successful, the deal will raise its Ukrainian capacity by 56%, to 8.4Mt/yr – 57% of national capacity. This unusual clumping of ownership may be made possible by the participation of European Bank for Reconstruction and Development in partly acquiring the assets, as per a mandate letter signed with CRH in 2023.
Leading Ukrainian cement buyer Kovalska Industrial-Construction Group bemoaned the anticipated increase in market concentration. On the one hand, this sounds like a classic tiff between cement producers and users with shallow pockets. On the other hand, an antebellum allegation of cement industry cartelisation should give us pause for thought. Non-governmental organisation The Antitrust League previously reported Ukraine’s four cement producers to the government’s Anti-Monopoly Committee for alleged anticompetitive behavior. This was in September 2021, when Ukraine was barely out of lockdown, let alone up in arms. With all that has happened since, it may seem almost ancient history, yet the players are the same, CRH and Buzzi among them.
Ukrcement and its members have secured favourable protections from the Trade Commission, and, for whatever reasons, evaded the inconvenience of investigation by the Anti-Monopoly Committee – a state of affairs over which the Antitrust League called the committee ‘very weak.’ The league says that producers previously raised prices by 35 – 50% in the three years up to 2021. In planning a fair and equitable reconstruction, Ukrainians might reasonably seek assurance that this will not happen again.
All these discussions are subject to a time-based uncertainty: the end of the war in Ukraine. A second question is where the finances might come from. The EU approved funding for €17bn in grants and €33bn in loans for Ukraine on 14 May 2024. Meanwhile, countries including the UK have enacted legislation to ensure Russia settles the cost of the conflict at war’s end. If Ukraine achieves its military aims, then the finances may flow from the same direction as did the armaments that demolished Ukrainian infrastructure in the first place.
The first piece of Ukraine annexed by Russia was Crimea in February 2014, making the invasion over a decade old. Against such a weight of tragedy, the country cannot lose sight of the coming restoration work, and of the need to ensure that it best serve Ukrainians.
Ukraine: The cost to rebuild Ukraine post-war is projected at US$487bn, according to a report commissioned by the United States Agency for International Development. The report states that to support the reconstruction, Ukraine must produce 15-16Mt/yr of cement for three years, a significant increase from current capacities. Protectionist measures in place since 2019 have restricted cement imports and a decline in production and a shrinking market could lead to an increase in construction costs, according to the Kyiv Independent.
Amid these projections, CRH, which operates three plants in Ukraine, announced in summer 2023 that it aims to purchase two more from Buzzi's subsidiary Dyckerhoff. This deal is valued at €100m, with the company stressing the importance of its investments in Ukrainian cement plants to boost the country’s domestic production to 15Mt/yr, according to Forbes Ukraine. The deal is reportedly under scrutiny by Ukraine's Anti-Monopoly Committee due to market concentration concerns, which could drive up cement prices and overall reconstruction costs.
Serhiy Pylypenko, CEO of the Ukrainian building supplies firm Kovalska, Ukraine’s largest cement user, said “We need more players and to diversify the market instead of making it more compact because the competition is very weak. Market concentration allows uncontrolled pricing and the cost of construction and the cost of recovery to skyrocket."
Clinker is the new gold in Kenya
08 May 2024Kenya-based East African Portland Cement (EAPCC) made the news this week with the reopening of the company’s Athi River cement plant after a month-long shutdown. The closure was conspicuous because the company is gradually working towards increasing the integrated plant’s production capacity. The first phase of the maintenance and upgrade project saw the replacement of the production line’s kiln shell in September 2022. The current aim is to increase the unit’s cement production capacity to 1Mt/yr by mid-2026. The recent shutdown appears to have been a more normal annual renewal and repair job but EAPCC has used it as a promotional opportunity. Notably, a spokesperson for EAPCC described clinker as the “new gold” in a recent video explaining what was going on.
It’s an improvement on the financial trouble EAPC found itself stuck within in the late 2010s before the government ended up taking a controlling share in the cement producer. On this front local media reported in July 2023 that the government had found a 'strategic investor' to buy a 30% stake in the company. Nothing more has been said on this topic since then though.
The highlighting of the recent shutdown is likely to be a public relations exercise intended to project stability, but that focus on clinker is telling given that the government introduced its Export and Investment Promotion Levy in July 2023. This legislation imposed a 17.5% fee on imported clinker in order to encourage the local industry. Cement producers that rely on imported clinker - including Rai Cement, Bamburi Cement, Savannah Cement, Ndovu Cement and Riftcot - attempted to lobby against the levy but it remains in place. This business environment helps to explain EAPCC’s renewed focus on clinker production.
One company that stands to benefit from the levy is National Cement, producer of the Simba Cement brand and a subsidiary of Devki Group. It made the news at the start of April 2024 when its subsidiary Cemtech commissioned a 6000t/day clinker plant at Sebit in West Pokot. National Cement already operates an integrated plant near Athi River, south of Nairobi. However, hot on the heels of the West Pokot plant, it is already considering building another integrated plant in the north of Kitui County, to the east of Nairobi. As reported in the local press this week, Cemtech has submitted an environmental impact assessment for the project to the local authorities.
The country has two other clinker producers: Holcim subsidiary Bamburi Cement and Mombasa Cement. The former company announced at the end of 2023 that it had signed a contract to build solar plants at its integrated plant in Mombasa and its grinding plant in Nairobi. The deal was framed as a money saver but additionally it may have been in response to a less than reliable local grid. It also said that it was removing Ordinary Portland Cement (OPC) from its product line from the start of 2024. This move challenged expectations about sustainability initiatives outside of richer countries. Yet, considering how Bamburi Cement argued against the clinker levy, there might have been some commercial thinking here too in order to sell products that use less clinker. Finally, despite completing its divestment of Uganda-based subsidiary Hima Cement for US$84m in March 2024, Bamburi Cement reported a loss of US$2.99m in 2023 compared to a profit of US$1.36m in 2022. Although it reported a rise in turnover and operating profit, it appears that taxes and legal costs related to the sale of Hima dragged the company into a loss.
Graph 1: Rolling annual cement production in Kenya, 2019 - September 2023. Source: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS).
It’s been a difficult business environment in Kenya over the last decade given the number of companies that have faced serious financial difficulties. This list includes ARM Cement, EAPCC and Savannah Cement. The last of these companies, Savannah Cement, is currently in administration and is trying to sell its integrated plant. Yet, rolling annual cement production in Kenya has remained above 9.5Mt/yr since early 2022. The government is sticking to promoting local clinker production, and companies like Bamburi Cement, EAPCC and National Cement are making investments of varying scales. The focus, for now at least, is on clinker production in Kenya.
Cemex sells in the Philippines
01 May 2024Cemex announced this week that it is preparing to sells its operations in the Philippines to a consortium comprising Dacon, DMCI Holdings and Semirara Mining & Power. Rumours of the divestment first started to appear in the media in February 2024.
The main part of the deal covers Cemex’s cement subsidiaries, APO Cement and Solid Cement, which have been valued at an enterprise value of US$660m. However, this becomes confusing because the actual selling price is the enterprise value minus the net debt and adjusted for the minority shareholding of one of the parent companies, Cement Holdings Philippines (CHP). The deal also includes the sale of a 40% stake in APO Land & Quarry and Island Quarry and Aggregates. Based on a press release issued by CHP to the Philippine Stock Exchange, the actual cost of the divestment appears to be around US$305m. It is hoped that the divestment will complete by the end of 2024 subject to regulatory approval from the Philippines Competition Commission and other bodies.
Cemex entered the market in 1997 when it acquired a minority stake in Rizal Cement. It then built the business up to a cement production capacity of 5.7Mt/yr from its two main integrated plants, the Solid Cement plant in Antipolo City, Rizal and the APO Cement plant in Naga, Cebu. However, CHP has endured a hard time of late, with falling annual operating earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) since 2019 and falling net sales in 2022 and 2020. The bad news continued into 2023, with net sales falling by 17% year-on-year to US$300m in 2023 from US$356m in 2022. It reported a loss of US$35m in 2023, double that of 2022. The company blamed the fall in sales on lower volumes. It noted that prices were also down and energy costs had grown.
The three companies buying CHP are all controlled by the Consunji family so effectively DMCI Holdings is acquiring Cemex’s operations in the Philippines. The group focuses on construction, real state, energy, mining and water distribution. It previously announced in the late 2010s plans to build one integrated cement plant on Semirara and three cement grinding plants at Batangas, Iloilo and Zamboanga but these plans didn’t seem to go anywhere. Later it was linked to the proposed Holcim Philippines sale in 2019, although the subsidiary of Holcim eventually gave up on the idea.
This latest attempt to enter the cement business underlines DMCI Holdings’ intent and the group has immediately started saying what it plans to do next. In a statement chair and president Isidro A Consunji admitted that cement demand in the country was ‘soft’ but that it is expected to rebound due to the Build Better More national infrastructure program and an anticipated fall in internet rates. Consunji added, “We recognise CHP's operational and financial issues, but we are positive that we can turn it around by 2025 because of its ongoing capacity expansion and the clear synergies it brings to our group.” He was also keen to play up that CHP is currently building a new 1.5Mt/yr production line at its Solid Cement plant with commissioning scheduled by September 2024. DMCI plans to reduce CHP’s costs through various synergies including supplying it coal, electricity and fly ash from Semirara Mining & Power.
The acquisition of CHP by DMCI Holdings is the biggest shake-up in the local cement sector in a while. DMCI has long harboured ambitions in heavy building materials and now it’s close to becoming a reality. As evidenced by its statements following the official announcement of the deal it is already thinking ahead publicly to soothe shareholder concerns. What will be interesting to watch here is whether it can actually pull it off and whether it will face trouble from imports. Readers may recall that the Philippines cement sector has long battled overseas imports, particularly from Vietnam. Despite anti-dumping tariffs though the Cement Manufacturers Association of the Philippines (CEMAP) warned in January 2024 that workers could be laid off due to continued competition from imports. Good luck to DMCI.
Polish cement industry advances with CCS technology
19 April 2024Poland: Polish cement producers are set to build carbon capture installations, supported by government policies. After a decline in production from nearly 19Mt in 2022 to about 16.5Mt in 2023, the industry is facing an increase in cheaper imports from outside the EU, particularly Ukraine, and CO₂ emission fees that account for 30% of the cost of 1t of cement, according to the Dziennik Gazeta Prawna newspaper. The EU has also introduced a carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) for imports.
Despite these challenges, the Kujawy cement plant in Bielawy, owned by Holcim, is launching the large-scale implementation of carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology.
Holcim Polska's president, Maciej Sypek, said "The construction of carbon capture installations in our plants will cost between €320m and €400m. We received a €264m grant from the European Commission's Innovation Fund." According to Sypek, the project is currently in the design phase, with construction expected to start in 2025 and operations beginning in early 2028.
The implementation of CCS at the Kujawy plant could potentially lead to an industry-wide adoption of the technology, costing between US$3.7bn and US$4.9bn, according to the newspaper. Holcim Polska plans to liquefy the CO₂ and transport it by rail to a terminal in Gdańsk, where it will be shipped to the North Sea for underground storage. Cement producers are urging the Polish government to appoint a commissioner for CCS infrastructure and to enact legislative changes to support the construction of such installations. They also believe that rapid modernisation of the energy sector needs to occur to support the energy-intensive process of gas capture.
Nigeria: The government has threatened to reopen borders for mass cement importation if local producers do not reduce prices. The Minister of Housing and Urban Development, Ahmed Dangiwa, said that the country had recently seen a ‘recurring and concerning increase in the price of cement’, according to the People’s Daily newspaper. Recent price hikes have threatened an agreement made in February 2024 to stabilise the price of cement. The government had previously halted cement imports to boost local production and affordability, yet producers cite high fuel and equipment costs as factors driving up prices.
The Cement Manufacturing Association of Nigeria has been criticised for its inaction in price regulation. Dangiwa said “The association is expected to monitor price control, otherwise it has no need to exist.”
New Cemtech clinker plant commissioned in West Pokot
09 April 2024Kenya: President William Ruto has commissioned a Cemtech clinker plant in Sebit, West Pokot, valued at US$345m. Construction of the plant began in 2010 and it will produce 6000t/day of clinker with a cement capacity of 2Mt/yr. After production, the clinker will be transported to a grinding plant in Eldoret.
Mining Principal Secretary Elijah Mwangi said "The production is enough feed for all cement plants in the country. The demand for this critical material will now be met with the excess available for export." The opening of this plant is a ‘major relief’ for cement companies in Kenya, which have historically had to import 60% of their clinker. Currently, National Cement and Mombasa Cement manufacture clinker, while Bamburi Cement, Savannah Cement, Rai Cement, and Ndovu Cement import it.
Located at the Sebit limestone mines in Kipkomo subcounty, the plant has generated over 2000 job opportunities.
Poland: The Association of Polish Cement Producers has expressed increasing concern over quadrupled year-on-year growth in cement imports from Ukraine, to 330,000t in 2023.
Zbigniew Pilch, the head of the association, highlighted the contrasting rise in imports and 12% fall in domestic production, to 16.6Mt. He said “The scale of imports from Ukraine is growing almost every month, reaching nearly 50% of total imports in January 2024. These volumes are deeply concerning.”
A primary issue raised by the association is the difference in environmental regulations faced by Ukrainian and Polish cement producers. The association argues that Ukrainian producers are not subjected to as rigorous climate policies as Polish producers, leading to an uneven playing field. Additionally, the localised nature of the cement market means eastern Polish producers are particularly affected by the ‘influx’ of Ukrainian cement.
‘Cheap’ imports threaten South African cement industry
26 March 2024South Africa: The South African cement industry faces plant closures and job losses due to an influx of ‘cheap’ cement imports, according to a recent study. Chronux Research found that cement imports to South Africa rose by nearly 20% in 2023, despite logistical challenges at ports. The firm's cement import monitor shows imported cement volumes increased by 18% in 2023 to 979,000t, with a notable 43% year-on-year growth in the second half of the year.
"Cement imports continue to be able to navigate the port and supply chain issues in South Africa with minimal impact," reads the report, highlighting the government's lack of protective measures for local cement producers. Vietnam, Mozambique, Namibia, Saudi Arabia and the UAE were the primary sources of these imports.
Chronux Research director Rowan Goeller expressed confusion over how imports are bypassing the country’s congested ports. The local industry has been lobbying for tariff protection against imported cement. The capacity of South Africa's cement production stands at 20Mt/yr, but only 12Mt/yr is currently produced.
A report by PPC Cement and the Gordon Institute of Business Science revealed in September 2023 that South Africa’s cement industry is operating at two-thirds of its capacity, citing displacement by imports and low demand as major factors. This underutilisation could lead to job losses and government revenue collections, according to the report.
Economic adviser for the Optimum group, Roelof Botha, raised concerns about the quality standards of imported products and their impact on local employment. He said "The extent to which the imported product displaces the locally manufactured products will ultimately also replace domestic employment," highlighting the government's slow response and the potential risks associated with poor-quality imports in construction.
Nigerian government considering allowing imports of cement
21 February 2024Nigeria: The Federal Government has warned cement producers that it is considering allowing cement imports into the country in response to high local prices. Arc Ahmed Dangiwa, the Minister of Housing and Urban Development, made the comment at an emergency meeting held with cement and building materials manufacturers in Abuja following a doubling of the price of bags of cement, according to the Vanguard newspaper. Manufacturers have blamed the price rises on the increasing cost of gas, the cost of mining equipment, negative currency exchange rate effects and the poor state of the country’s roads. However, Dangiwa noted that many of the raw materials they use - including limestone, clay, silica sand and gypsum - are sourced locally.
The government is preparing to set up a committee - comprising representatives of each cement company, the Cement Manufactures of Nigeria Association and the relevant ministries, to find ways of tackling the high price of cement.