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Update on Cemex, June 2021
30 June 2021Fernando A González and Cemex took to the virtual airways this week with Cemex Day 2021. The investors’ update comprised the usual greatest hits package explaining how well everything is going: earnings growth and leverage levels about to hit desired targets, selective investments and divestments on the way, new production capacity round the corner and punchy sustainability goals turning up earlier than expected. Or at least that’s the way that chief executive officer González and the team told it.
To be fair to Cemex, it seems to be in a good place right now. It weathered 2020 well and now its first quarter results in 2021 compared to the same period in 2019, before coronavirus hit, are looking rosy with cement sales volumes growth of 9%. How much of that is attributable to pent up demand from 2020 remains to be seen though. Its strategy of focusing on markets in North America and Europe appears to have paid off in recent years with its competitors copying it as they have retreated from riskier climes and concentrated on core territories. Its obsession with righting the ratio between its debts and earnings is closer than ever to being realised, with a 4.07x net leverage ratio in 2020 and a target of 3x or lower planned for 2023. That last target is crucial both materially and psychologically for the company as it starts to put it back in the same financial field as its Western multinational competitors and opens up new investment opportunities.
From a production angle, the big news from the event was a 10Mt/yr cement production expansion project between now and 2023. This wasn’t quite as promising as it sounded, as just under half of this was attributed to legacy projects in Mexico, Colombia and the Philippines and some of the new projects had already been announced, but it does bookmark a move from divesting plants to upgrading and building new ones.
The new projects comprise an additional 5.7Mt/yr capacity from on-going debottlenecking, new integrated plants, new grinding plants and reopening idle or mothballed plants. During the event José Antonio González, the Executive Vice President of Strategic Planning & Business Development broke it down into 3.5Mt in Mexico, consisting of 1.5Mt additional grinding capacity at the integrated Tepeaca plant, a 0.5Mt/yr expansion at the integrated Huichapan plant and 1.5Mt/yr from bringing both idled lines back into production at the CPN Hermosilla plant in Senora to support the US market. That last one notably was partly announced in February 2021. In Europe and the US the group plans to add 1.2Mt/yr including expanding grinding capacity at two plants in Europe with details to be announced later. Finally, the company plans to add 1Mt/yr of additional capacity in South American including restarting an idled 0.5Mt/yr kiln at a plant in the Dominican Republic and building a new 0.5Mt/yr grinding mill in Guatemala.
Cemex has also stepped up its target reduction in CO2 emissions to below 475kg CO2/t of cementitious material, an approximately 40% reduction in CO2 emissions compared to 1990 levels, by 2030. The previous target for 2030 of 520 kg CO2 has been brought forward to 2025. This compares to LafargeHolcim’s similar target of 475kg CO2/t by 2030, HeidelbergCement’s target of 500kg CO2/t by 2030 and CRH’s target of 530kg CO2/t by 2030. The group is planning to spend US$60m/yr on its decarbonisation projects. This compares to a spend of around US$140m/yr on its 10Mt/yr cement production capacity expansion drive over the next three years. Or to put it another way, the group is spending more on growing than sustainability.
Unfortunately, it wasn’t all good public relations for Cemex this week with the news in the Colombian press that one of its former executives is set to be investigated by the authorities over his alleged involvement in the ongoing Maceo cement plant corruption case. The background to this one is that in 2016 Cemex fired several senior staff members, and the local subsidiary’s chief executive resigned, in relation to the building of a new integrated plant at Maceo. This followed an internal audit and investigation into payments worth around US$20m made to a non-governmental third party in connection with the acquisition of the land, mining rights and benefits of the tax free zone for the project. Legal proceedings followed in Colombia and the US. Many large companies have legacy problems to deal with. Just take LafargeHolcim’s continued connection to Lafarge Syria’s conduct in the early 2010s. At the time of writing the Maceo plant is still yet to start operation and is likely to be one of the ongoing projects mentioned above.
Cemex’s second quarter results are due to arrive towards the end of July 2021 but the group is presenting an upbeat image. Sales are up, debts are down, divestments are out and expansions are in. Confidence is important for a multinational trying to convince the rating agencies to give it back its investment grade, so whether this is strictly true or not it certainly knows how to talk the talk. One question going forward at least is how strictly Cemex will want to stick to its core markets if the good times really have returned?
Cemex plans US$925m in investments in 2021 - 2023
25 June 2021Mexico: Cemex says that it will invest US$925m in 2021 – 2023 in production capacity expansions and upgrades, as well as in other projects to improve financial margins. Chief executive officer Fernando González said at its Cemex Day 2021 business update that the group is planning a 10Mt/yr cement capacity expansion consisting of an extra 7.5Mt/yr in the Americas, 1.5Mt/yr in the Philippines and 1.0Mt/yr in Europe. It expects a total increase in 2023 full-year profit of US$520m as result of the investments. Around US$425m will be spent on the cement capacity additions and the remainder will go towards projects on urbanisation and its other business lines.
Strategic planning and business development executive vice president José González said “We focus on high-growth metropolitan areas, where our products and solutions nurture the urbanisation needs of these markets. These areas represent around 70% of the population and around 80% of the gross domestic product (GDP) of construction.”
Vietnam: Vietnam’s cement exports totalled 14.9Mt in the first four months of 2021, up by 42% year-on-year from the levels in the corresponding period of 2020. China imported 7.38Mt (50%) of Vietnamese cement exports, up by 53% year-on-year. The Philippines imported 2.51Mt (17%), up by 17%, and Bangladesh imported 1.87Mt (13%), up by 38%.
The Viet Nam News newspaper has reported the total value of Vietnamese cement exports for the period as US$563m. China’s value of Vietnamese cement imports was US$258 (46%), the Philippines’ was US$112m (20%) and Bangladesh’s was US$63.1m (11%).
Indonesia: The newly cement producing province of North Sulawesi on Celebes exported 63,000t of cement in May 2021. The Philippines News Agency has reported the value of the exports as US$2.18m. The main destination for the province’s exported cement was Malaysia, which received 32,500t (51%) for US$1.10m, corresponding to 50% of the total value. Taiwan imported 23,500t (37%) for US$764,000 (35%) and the Philippines imported 1.87Mt (13%) for US$317,000 (15%).
Republic Cement and Building Materials to roll out quality control systems across plants by 2022
20 May 2021Philippines: CRH and Aboitiz Equity Ventures subsidiary Republic Cement and Building Materials plans to roll out a quality control system to detect product quality across all of its cement plants by 2022. Business World News has reported that the company currently uses data science-based techniques at three sites. It says that it uses the method to predict the 28-day compressive strength without moulding and curing of a batch of cement.
Manufacturing vice president Lloyd Vicente said that with accurate predictions, “our operations can make it quick and precise adjustments to our recipe and other operating parameters, therefore reducing our CO2 emissions.”
Vietnam: SSI Research has predicted that Vietnamese cement exports will not grow in 2021. The reason for this is the expected stabilisation of China’s domestic cement supply, which is forecast to increase its share of the market. The Viet Nam News newspaper has reported that China accounts for 57% of Vietnamese cement and clinker exports. Other factors restricting export growth are safeguard duties in Bangladesh and the Philippines and the Vietnam government’s mandatory minimum domestic sales regulations, variously between 65% and 70% of total output.
Philippines: The Philippine cement industry has met some of its investment commitments set out in the Department of Trade and Industry (DTI)’s adjustment plans for its imposition of safeguard measures against imported cement. The Manila Bulletin newspaper has reported that producers have invested around US$250m in making their product more competitive for local buyers although the industry has deferred US$1.54bn-worth of further agreed-upon spending to before 2025. The Tariff Commission (TC) said that companies’ reasons for delaying the completion of their adjustment commitments were Covid-19-led disruptions to production, transport and services. The DTI set out the commitments in the form of 20 plans, of which the industry has now fully implemented 12. The TC said that the sector is ‘determined’ to meet the remaining goals. It added that the damaging impacts of the coronavirus outbreak were lessened by the previous implementation of tariffs, which rose to US$0.20/bag in December 2020. The commission said "To date, it can be concluded that the intervention was timely and proper, as it has provided breathing space for the domestic industry and has mainly contributed to increasing the industry's market competitiveness."
Republic Cement expects strong growth in the Philippines
30 April 2021Philippines: Republic Cement has said that it expects the cement sector in the Philippines to grow strongly in 2021 following a 10% decline in demand in 2020. Speaking to local press, the company’s president and chief executive officer Nabil Francis said that the drop in demand in 2020 was actually less severe than the expected 15%. He added, “We strongly believe that we will get back to 2019 level in 2021. That means 12% growth compared to 2020.” Francis added that the industry is expected to sell 35Mt of cement during 2021. The main driver is the bagged cement segment, with infrastructure and the non-residential, likely to grow less rapidly.
Francis additionally said that he welcomed the Department of Trade and Industry’s investigation into alleged dumping of cement into the Philippines from Vietnam. He said that the imported cement is sold at very low prices, its production having been subsidised by the Vietnamese government. He said the influx of imported cement has injured the local industry.
Vietnamese cement dumping reportedly continues in spite of safeguard duty in the Philippines
26 April 2021Philippines: The Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) has launched a probe into the possible imposition of a new anti-dumping duty on imports of cement from Vietnam. The Philippine Star newspaper has reported that Vietnamese cement continues to enter the Philippine market at allegedly dumped prices despite the DTI’s safeguard measures on the product. The DTI is authorised to investigate where prices are believed to be harmful to the domestic industry. Cemex Philippines, Holcim Philippines and Republic Cement have applied for a probe.
A great question was asked at yesterday’s Virtual Global CemTrans Seminar: what impact did the recent blockage of the Suez Canal cause to the cement industry? Luckily, Rahul Sharan from Drewry was on hand discussing freight costs following the start of the coronavirus pandemic.
As most readers will know, the Suez Canal was blocked in late March 2021 when the 200,000dwt Ever Given ran aground, at around six nautical miles from the southern entry of the canal. The ultra large container vessel was subsequently refloated and towed away just under a week later. While this was happening the fate of the ship became a global news story with business analysts totting up the cost of the obstruction. 40 bulk carriers were reported as waiting to transit the waterway the day after the blockage started and some of these were carrying cement. Reporting by the BBC noted that 369 ships were stuck waiting on either side of the blockage on the day before the ship was finally freed. The Suez Canal Authority (SCA) estimated their loss of revenue from the incident at US$14 – 15m/day. Analysts like Allianz placed the cost to the global economy at US$6 - 10bn/day.
In Sharan’s view the blockage of the Suez Canal happened at a potentially risky moment for cement and clinker shipping because there was already congestion in shipping lanes built up on the east coast of South America and around Australia. However, a delay of a week around the canal, followed by the resulting congestion dispersing quickly over the following days, does not seem to have had any major impact so far.
Sharan’s presentation at Global CemTrans also included a summary of cement shipping. The key takeaways were that clinker shipping overtook cement shipping in 2019 with a connected increase in fleets investing in handymax-sized vessels. He also pointed out the key cement and clinker importing countries in 2019, before the coronavirus pandemic started causing market disruption. For cement: the US, the Philippines and Singapore. For clinker: China, Bangladesh and the Philippines. Turkey and Vietnam were the biggest exporters for both in that year.
The Ever Given incident has highlighted the continued importance of the Suez Canal for global trade for commodities. Goods still need to be physically moved around, however much stuff we digitise. It also contrasts with the issues that the Egyptian cement sector has faced in recent years such as production overcapacity. While domestic cement plants have struggled to maintain their profits, plenty of cement carriers have been transiting through the Isthmus of Suez. Local producers may well have gazed at them and wondered where they were going.
One of them, Al-Arish Cement Company, took action in this direction this week with its first export shipment of clinker. The Clipper Isadora ship disembarked East Port Said port for Ivory Coast. Future shipments are planned for West Africa, Canada, the US and Europe. Ship tracking reveals that the Clipper Isadora has not taken the Suez Canal on this occasion.
The proceedings pack for the Virtual CemTrans Seminar 2 2021 is available to buy now