Displaying items by tag: Sales

Votorantim shone a glimmer of hope for the Brazilian cement industry with the release of its first quarter financial results this week. Increased sales volumes in Brazil, Turkey, India and Latin America led to an 11% rise in revenue to US$682m in the period. Admittedly back home in Brazil, most of this came from concrete and mortar sales, but after the slump Brazil’s had they’ll take whatever they can get. This compares to a 14% drop in sales revenue in the same period in 2017 due to falling cement consumption.

Graph 1: Accumulated 12 months local cement sales in Brazil. Source: SNIC.

SNIC, Brazil's national cement industry association, preliminary figures for April 2018 show a similar trend. Cement sales for April 2018 rose by 8.9% year-on-year to 4.35Mt from 4Mt. Sales for the first four months of the year dipped slightly by 0.2% to 16.9Mt although this is an improvement on the first quarter figures showing the benefit a strong April has had. Improvements are driven by growth in the central and southern parts of the country. SNIC’s graph of accumulated sales (Graph 1) definitely shows a slowing trend of decreasing cement sales with April 2018 being the only the second month in over two years where sales have risen.

Paulo Camillo Penna, the president of SNIC, even went as far as to speculate that the three months from April to June 2018 might see the first sustained period of improvement since 2015 and that sales could even grow by 1% for the year as a whole. This is a far cry from Penna’s description of his industry at the start of 2017 as, “One of the worst moments in its history.”

Votorantim reported that some regions of Brazil were starting to show a positive trend in the second half of 2017. Unfortunately it wasn’t enough to stop the cement producer’s overall sales falling for the year. LafargeHolcim didn’t release specific figures for its Brazilian operations in 2017 but it did say that its cost savings programme had, ‘provided for material improvement versus prior year both in recurring earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) and cash flow.’ It reckoned that despite the market contracting, it had managed to increase its market share. Meanwhile, on the supplier side RHI Magnesita said in a first quarter trading update that its cement and lime business was flat due to continuing low capacity utilisation rates in China and Brazil.

If this truly is the end of the Brazilian cement market slump then it seems surprising that there haven’t been more mergers or acquisitions. Mineração Belocal, a subsidiary of Belgium’s Lhoist, said this week that it had purchased L-Imerys, a lime producer that operates a plant at Doresópolis in Minas Gerais. Local refractory producer Magnesita merged with RHI in mid-2017.

The big deal that hasn’t happened is the sale of InterCement, the country’s second largest cement producer. Owner Camargo Corrêa was reportedly selling minority stakes in the company in 2015. Then in early 2017 local press said that it was aiming for a price of US$6.5bn for the whole company with Mexico’s Cemex as a potential bidder. Since then nothing has happened publicly although the initial public offering of InterCement’s Argentine subsidiary Loma Negra in November 2017 for US$954m may have bought Camargo Corrêa the time it needed to wait for the market to improve. Rumours of a public listing of InterCement’s European and African operations have followed.

In its World Economic Outlook in April 2018 the IMF forecast a 2.8% rise in gross domestic product (GDP) in Brazil in 2018. If SNIC’s forecast for 2018 is correct then Camargo Corrêa may have survived the worst of the slump to live to trade another day. The price for InterCement at this point can only rise, as should the prospects of the Brazilian industry.

No consolidation has happened yet in the Saudi Arabian cement industry but exports have started to be announced. Yanbu Cement signed an export deal in March 2018 to despatch 1Mt of clinker and 0.5Mt of cement from one year from 1 April 2018. Prior to that, Al Jouf Cement Company started a contract to export 72.000t/yr to Jordan from late February 2018. Earlier still, Bahrain was expected to benefit from a lifting of cement export tariffs at the end of January 2018.

Its early days yet but some of sort of action is starting to happen about the country’s falling cement sales. If export deals are in the early stages of being set following the lifting of the ban, then local movements of cement have intensified. As Al Rajhi Capital reports in its latest market update, that producers have been forced by low sales and high inventory levels to take action. It says that cement companies have started to sell products in different parts of the country than they do normally leading to a ‘price war’. The financial services and analytical company has pinpointed the central region as the key battleground as company market shares have fallen over the last six months as northern producers have moved in.

Graph 1: Cement sales (Mt) by quarter in Saudi Arabia, 2015 to March 2018. Source: Yamama Cement.

Cement sales fell by 15% year-on-year to 11.8Mt in the first quarter of 2018 from 13.7Mt in the same period in 2017. This is the first time in recent years that sales did not rise from the fourth quarter to the following first quarter. Not a good sign. Despite the bad news, a few producers did mange to increases their deliveries in the first quarter, including Saudi Cement, Hail Cement, Umm Al Qura Cement and United Cement.

Bizarrely, into this sales environment, plans for the long delayed Al Baha Cement cement plant project have re-emerged. The project previously has received coverage at various stages over the years. This time it has reportedly gained a licence to set up the company and it hopes to start tendering for the build in the second half of 2018. The investors may want to leave it a little longer given the current state of the Saudi cement industry.

FLSmidth revealed this week that Cooperativa Boliviana de Cemento, Industrias y Servicios (COBOCE) has ordered a cement mill for its Irpa Irpa plant near Cochabamba. The Danish engineering firm was pleased to note that with the sale it has now delivered mills to three of the country’s five producers. Other recent orders include supplying an OK 36-4 mill to Sociedad Boliviana de Cemento’s (SOBOCE) Viacha cement plant, announced in early 2016, and a sale of a complete integrated production line at Sucre to Fábrica Nacional de Cemento (FANCESA) in late 2016.

These order reveal slow but steady growth in the local industry in recent years. However, a slowdown so far in 2017 suggests that the market is changing. National Institute of Statistics of Bolivia (INE) data shows that sales in the local market broke down in 2016 into a 42% sales share for SOBOCE, 25% for FANCESA, 19% for COBOCE, 8% for Yura and 6% for Itacamba. This changed somewhat in the first quarter of 2017 with a reduction in the sales of SOBOCE and Yura. Sales in the country are concentrated in the departments of Chuquisca, La Paz and Cochabamba, which held 70% of cement sales in 2016.

Graph 1: Cement production and sales in Bolivia, 2012 – 2017. Source: National Institute of Statistics of Bolivia.

Annual cement sales in Bolivia have been growing consistently since 2001. Financial services company Pacific Credit Rating placed average annual sales growth at 7.72% from 1998 to 2016. In 2016 sales reached 3.7Mt. Graph 1 shows a continuation of this trend although the first half of 2017 has been weaker than 2016. COBOCE blamed the reverse in 2017 on reduced local government spending on infrastructure projects and poor weather. The producer was expecting sales to grow by 6 – 8% as a whole for 2017. However, on the basis of the figures for July and August 2017 this is not looking likely. Sales for the two months dropped by 2.5% year-on-year to 0.64Mt. A representative of FANCESA later blamed the market change on a reduction in sales supporting the construction of tall buildings in the country’s key markets as customers switched to buying ‘random’ volumes.

Sure enough local producers have started to complain about foreign exporters damaging their trade. A union head in Chuquisaca called for cement and clinker imports by Yura from Peru to be banned and concerns have been raised about concessions offered to Itacamba, a joint venture between Spain’s Cementos Molins, Brazil’s Votorantim Cement and Camba Cement. President Evo Morales inaugurated this company’s new plant in Yacuses, Santa Cruz in early 2017. The niggles about foreign exports to Bolivia seem counter-intuitive given that the country is landlocked and it has the world’s highest capital city above sea level. Usually, markets with nearby ports are most at risk from clinker and cement imports. Yet, Itacamba was planning exports to Argentina in November so the import and export markets via road and river links can’t be discounted.

Cement sales may be down so far in 2017 but overall the wider economy appears to be in rude health. After a strong decade of growth the national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate has fallen each year since 2014, but it was still 4.3% in 2016, one of the highest in South America. If that kind of growth persists it seems unlikely that the cement industry will have trouble for long.

Last week we promised reasons to be cheerful for the cement industry. We only have one to offer this week but it's a good one. At present three Indian cement companies are on sale: Lafarge India, Reliance Cements and Jaiprakash Associates. If these sales complete then it represents an opportunity for the Indian cement industry to reorganise itself and stride forward when growth recovers.

Lafarge India upped its sales proposal to the Competition Commission of India (CCI) on 6 January 2016 to sell its entire 11Mt/yr portfolio. Originally as part of the LafargeHolcim merger agreements the CCI asked Lafarge to sell 5.2Mt/yr of production capacity in Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand in eastern India. However the deal was reliant on the original buyer, Birla Corporation, securing limestone mining rights. Birla failed to do so. Now Lafarge India has decided to sell everything instead. Naturally, following its Euro8bn spending spree in 2015 CRH has been linked to the sale by Indian media.

Then following press speculation Reliance Infrastructure confirmed to the Bombay Stock Exchange on 11 January 2016 that it was at an 'advanced stage of discussions with potential buyers for divesting the cement business of the company.' Reliance's cement arm, Reliance Cement, holds three cement plants in Maihar in Madhya Pradesh, Kundanganj in Uttar Pradesh and Butibori in Maharashtra with a total production capacity of 5.8Mt/yr. In addition to this, the company is also developing a 5Mt/yr cement plant at Wani in Maharashtra. The Reliance sale has been reported upon since early 2015. The difference this time is that Reliance responded to local press reports that it was about to sell to Birla Corporation or a couple of other private equity firms.

Finally, the third sale concerns Jaiprakash Associates' on-going attempts to sell its remaining cement assets to service its debts. Jaiprakash Associates cement subsidiary, Jaypee Cement, holds eight plants in India with a cement production capacity of 11Mt/yr. In addition it holds six cement grinding plants with a capacity of 10.7Mt/yr. Despite reported attempts to sell the entire division in one Jaypee has actually ended up selling its cement assets in a piecemeal fashion one or two at a time. The most recent sale being announced this week is to sell its Bhilai Jaypee Cement to Shree Cement. This follows other sales to HeidelbergCement and UltraTech in 2015.

None of these sales are new exactly but the combined production capacity of these plants comes to just under 28Mt/yr. This represents 9% of India's total national cement production capacity of 310Mt/yr. Any player somehow able to weasel their way into striking a deal for all of these plants would immediately become one of the country's biggest producers.

It would definitely be a case of buyer beware though. Credit agency ICRA recently reported that it expects that cement demand growth will be a 'modest' 4% in the 2015 - 2016 financial year before picking up in the following year. This follows poor growth in cement demand in the first half of 2015 and even declines in March and April 2015. ICRA also expected the country capacity utilisation to drop to 70% in the 2016 financial year, down from 77% in the 2012 financial year. That 7% drop in the utilisation is awfully close to the 9% of Indian national production capacity that the cement assets currently on sale from Lafarge India, Reliance Cement and Jaypee Cement. Unsurprisingly, the buyers of Indian cement assets have been picking and choosing their plants one-by-one so far.

Just before the end of 2012 Holcim sold shares in companies it owned in Thailand and Guatemala. It reduced its stake in Siam City Cement Company (SCCC) in Thailand from 36.8% to 27.5% and it sold its entire 20% minority stake in Cementos Progreso in Guatemala. For the sale of these two share packages Holcim received approximately Euro310m.

This is interesting given that Asia-Pacific was the Switzerland-based multinational's biggest sales area in 2011 and because sales of cement rose by 6% in Latin America in 2011. Similarly in 2012 from January to September the two regions propped up the group's profits. Why would Holcim sell stakes into two of its most profitable regions?

In its third quarter report in 2012 Holcim repeatedly described Thailand as 'encouraging' following floods in 2011. It added that it had focused increasingly on the cement market in the country and strengthened its position in neighbouring countries that resulted in lower clinker exports.

According to the Global Cement Directory 2013 SCCC has a capacity of 31Mt/yr, 65% of Thailand's total capacity of 48Mt/yr. SCCC predicted in December 2012 that domestic cement demand would increase by 5-10% in 2013. The company is currently planning to build new plants in Indonesia and Cambodia and is considering investing in Myanmar. In Indoniesia Holcim is the third biggest producer after Semen Gresik and HeidelbergCement subsidiary Indocement.

Meanwhile in Central America, Cementos Progreso was the sole producer in Guatemala with 2.5Mt/yr from two plants. This was set to double with the commissioning of a third plant towards the end of 2012. However, Holcim retains seven plants in southern Mexico (12Mt/yr), both of El Salvador's plants (2Mt/yr) and a plant in Costa Rica (1Mt/yr).

With Holcim's strong presence in Central America and the North American market reviving leaving Guatemala makes sense with the group's debt reduction programme in mind. The situation in Thailand is more complex, so unsurprisingly Holcim has reduced its stake rather than leaving completely. SCCC's expansion plans outside of Thailand suggest, that although growing, the market is maturing. In one such potential expansion target, Indonesia, Holcim is already a major producer.

In its press release announcing the sales in Thailand and Guatemala, Holcim attributed the decision to its ongoing debt reduction programme. As part of its 'Leadership Journey' the group intends to save Euro1.25bn by the end of 2014. Other savings in 2012 included reducing management in Europe, layoffs and closures in Australia, a plant closure in Hungary, further delays on the decision to build a new plant in New Zealand and layoffs in Spain. The management changes in Europe alone contributed a Euro99m chunk of Holcim's target saving of Euro124m for 2012.

Yet it's worth considering that a week after the sales of its shares Holcim's subsidiary in India, Ambuja Cements, announced investments of Euro277m in India. Perhaps the best way to save money is to make more money.